Irvine Housing Forums

Ladera Ranch projections

2008-10-24T17:30:57-08:00

Hey everyone -

I’m 24 in Temecula (went to UCI) and looking to move back to OC. I thankfully followed the advice of others in this forum and avoided buying a condo for about $280k out here in June. I’m now renting here until next September when I hope the market would have shedded another 10-15%. I’ve been checking out neighborhoods and areas for about a year (all over OC, LA and San Diego and Temecula) and I really, REALLY enjoy the feel in Ladera (density, small streets, canyons, etc). It is also very close to the Ortega, so a quick jott out to Temecula for friends and family. I thankfully work at home, so a commute is a non-issue (but I’d rather be in OC just in case - not many Software jobs in Temecula!).

Anyway, I understand the cons of Ladera - the high taxes, mello roos, etc etc. What is the average additional monthly load like out there? Say on a $375k place, I’d estimate $500 in taxes/melloroos + $300 association/mo - does that sound about right? (This is based just on informal calculations from RedFin’s previous tax data). Factor in the homeowner’s insurance savings from the Townhouse’s HOA and the included Internet, it’s realistically about $150 extra, so $650 or so more a month.

What about upcoming foreclosures? I’m looking at places right now under $450k, 3/2 at least 1500sqft, pref 1600+. There are only about 20-30 that match my preferences, but I’d like to stay UNDER $400k for a comparable place next September. I was considering a subscription to ForclosureRadar but I can’t justify the cost this long out. Anyone have an idea of the number of lower end places (under $500k) that are in the pipeline? From everything I hear, Ladera is way underwater…

Opinions on a 3/2, 1500+ in Ladera, August/September 2009?

Yorba Linda Vista Verde or Wait???

2008-11-18T21:12:52-08:00

We have equity in our house and ideally would like to rent it out, at a loss of about $400/month..We are not overly concerned about the loss as we can comfortably afford it plus we can use the tax write-off.

Are we crazy to consider a move to a Yorba Linda (Vista Verde community) at this point? We can get a 3200 foreclosure for about $780k OR pick up a brand new house for about $850k for about 3400 square feet..We can afford the mortgage with a 30 year interest rate so that’s not a problem..Not completely certain we would qualify for the loan though as I am hearing rumors that lenders are requiring at least 25% down payment.. Should we jump on moving or wait??? That’s the million dollar question..And if we do wait, wait for what?? Prices to fall another 10%?? More??

Realtors and the cars that they drive

2008-11-30T19:44:30-08:00

I went to an open house today in Seacliff (Huntington Beach). The house was circa 1972 and partially remodeled, and delusionally overpriced at 1.55 million for 3,000 sq. feet of paradise. What struck me was not the unappealing home, but that sitting out front was the most obnoxiously flashy 2008 Rolls Royce Phantom, with a “look at me” vanity plate with the Realtards name on it. I didn’t realize it was hers until my way out, which is probably a good thing, because I might have made a rude comment to her. Of course I have read about certain Realtards being driven around in their Maybach, but not in H.B. Any other realtors pimping in $400K rides?

Santa Ana Discussion Thread

2008-07-26T16:26:17-08:00

I have a soft spot in my heart for Santa Ana, so I wanted to have a dedicated thread for stuff that happens in RE there.

Here is a follow up story about Camille St. that was originally written up about a year ago. Today’s headlines sport a home that a couple just paid $625K on Camille street that has been devastated by subprime loans. This home was bought on a street where the homes are arguably half that price. “Someone” kicked in $125k for the downpayment, the new owners got a loan for $500k and they got a promisary note for $30k to help with the first three months mortgage payments. The couple work as laborers at St. John’s Knits and this is their second home.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/camile-house-mortgage-2104411-fargo-wells

Los Caballeros condominiums selling call options in a declining market

2008-09-29T11:10:12-08:00

I did a few searches looking for this development and came up empty. I’ve been watching it since before they broke ground. LosCabWest is a building with 40-50 units in my old stomping ground, Fountain Valley. IMO, they priced them far too high. The market agreed and they had sold less than half of the units. I’m sure it slowed to a crawl lately. Now, in lieu of REAL market pricing, the owner is looking to carry the units. However, he’s cooked up a new scheme (not NEW, but new to this dev) in order to not only make up his carrying costs, but insulate himself against future losses in value as well. He’s basically set himself up to sell call options on the remaining units. The full description of the scam—-oops, opportunity… Is here. On an advertisement in front of the building, it says “If during the 3 years prices go up, you have instant equity! If prices go down, you can cancel and retain part of your ‘down payment’!“

IMO it is rather transparently shifting risk to people who largely have no idea what they’re doing. I’m all for everyone being an informed consumer, “caveat emptor”, etc., but it just seems shady because in reality, they aren’t offering you much. I mean, subprime mortgage companies are being dogged constantly for selling these exotic loan products to people who had no idea what they were signing, etc. This is the first whiff I’ve had of this kind of tactic in our current cycle. Has anyone seen any other new OC developments trying this?

50% Loss in Real Estate (or more)

2008-03-26T06:32:42-08:00

There have been a few properties found by fellow IH Bloggers with 50% losses. I thought these properties deserved their own thread.
Props to Caliguy for finding this property.
58% off in Santa Ana…

2144 South Ross ST , Santa Ana, CA 92707

Asking: $284,900

Sales history:

<thead>

Date
Price
Appreciation

</thead>

Jun 29, 1988
$132,000

—

Oct 01, 1993
$156,000

3.2%/yr

May 19, 2006
$562,000

10.7%/yr

May 21, 2007
$675,000

20.0%/yr

Looks like even an auction in Laguna Beach can backfire too

2008-11-30T01:52:38-08:00

Hat tip to kn for posting this on Lansner’s blog.

The auctioneer tried to make a big deal out of his opinion that people would be getting one heck of a deal. He started bidding at $5,000,000 as somewhat of a joke. Silence.
He went down to $4,000,000. More silence.
He went down to $3,000,000. More silence.
He went down yet again to $2,000,000. More silence!
He went down to $1,500,000 and got a hit. One of the “Internet” bidders seemed to have placed a bid. Was it a real bid? I have no idea.

Having a starting point, the auctioneer went to $1,600,000 and did his auction lingo in that price range for a while. This was met with silence from the crowd. No one bid. The auctioneer then singled out a person in the crowd - “Sir, you are interested in this property, aren’t you?“
To which the gentleman replied “Not at this price.“ Priceless!!!

The auctioneer, having absolutely no success in getting any other bids, announced that the action was over and that there was no winning bid because the reserve price hadn’t been reached. All expectations were deflated and the bidders dispersed into the sunny Laguna Beach afternoon.

I’d say the owner of 2626 Victoria Drive can’t face the reality that his home is really worth $1,500,000. It probably will be worth less next month! This shows me that Laguna Beach home values are a LOT lower than the asking prices. Only a moron would pay anything close to the asking prices of most of the properties currently listed in the MLS. In some coming posts, I’ll detail some actual moronic buying decisions and how these buyers have lost huge amounts of money in very short times. Until then, enjoy the weekend and any open houses you attend.

Further proof sellers have no concept of reality. It was also nice to see this blog, that I had never heard of, has IHB on his/her’s list of links. Thanks Blue Move, and if you read the forums, I hope you post something here, if you have not already.

Pat Veling is paranoid, or he has OD’d on the Kool-Aid

2008-06-04T23:56:51-08:00

From Lansner’s blog...

Pat Veling Says:
June 4th, 2008 at 4:04 pm

No_Vaseline:

Kind of you to think about me! The problem is….I am too busy to add builders as clients. Market shifts drive demand for great information, and I seem to be in the right place at the right time with the right stuff. My firm publishes statistic analysis from over 300 MLSs, you know!

I am also pretty sure Steve Thomas is too busy selling real estate to worry about the builders. Not sure about Gary Watts.

Thanks again for thinking of me!

PS: To those who are curious about my ability to reply here without watching this blog daily, I have been experimenting for a month now with a new service that monitors blogs for use of my name or data, and provides me with the intel. If I take issue with what’s said, or how my data is used in unauthorized fashion, they take action to bully the offending blogger into submission. It’s pretty cool so far!

I was thinking about making a comment there, but I decided to test his new paranoia software out to see if he has the balls to post here. I think 1. He is full of sh*t 2. He doesn’t have the balls to post here even if he is not full of sh*t.

So, the real reason Pattycakes Veling doesn’t have any builder clients is because they have no use for him and his useless, behind the times seasonally adjusted data. If they did, they would be begging him for his data, because it is soooo good. But, they don’t, because like Gary Watts, the info is just fluff and wouldn’t have anything to do with or help their business, and not because he is too busy.

So, Patsy Veling, if you are tracking your name and data usage, you freak, then does your data include the increasing NODs and foreclosures? If it doesn’t, then I could help you improve your model from making look as ridiculous as Gary Watts, but I come with a hefty fee. Trust me, it is worth it, because I have been right, er somewhat too optimistic. BTW, Mark Boud was wrong, foreclosures will not peak in Q2, but they will be worse in Q3 and Q4. There is the written record of me saying that, and if I am wrong, then I am wrong, but if I am right… every IHBer should email Patsycakes Veling to buy me lunch at The Hat until he actually does.

Pat Veling, what say ye?

Effect of inflation on future housing prices

2008-11-28T13:37:46-08:00

Hi everyone,

This is my first post. I have been lurking these forums and reading the real estate blogs for a while now. I will be in the position to buy a house with 20% down or more in the next couple of years or so. There has, however, been a question in the back of my head for a while, and I haven’t seen it answered yet.

It seems that most experts predict significant inflation in our future due to the large amounts of cash that our government is producing to help with bailouts, fund stimulus packages, etc. While conventional wisdom indicates that housing prices should continue to drop over the next year or two, I do wonder if inflation is being taken into account with these projections. While I do want to get in as close to the market as possible, I would also like to be safe in the case that rampant inflation takes place as well.

Should the threat of future inflation change influence the timing of my impending home purchase, or is it the sort of thing that significant inflation will not need to be worried about for the next couple of years or so?

Any insight?

Interesting/Amusing Property Finds

2007-08-20T08:05:33-08:00

Hat tip FatWallet Poster.
356 PLAZA ESTIVAL, San Clemente, CA 92672
! *s-m-o-k-i-n - h-o-t - d-e-a-l* * good location, does not back - ($40k in u-p-g-r-a-d-e-s) s-e-l-l-e-r - h-a-s - e-q-u-i-t-y = quick escrow. Granite slab counters w/ full back splash & breakfast counter. New kitchen cabinets, newer sinks, faucets, appliances,..+ 2 remodeled baths w/ granite counters, sink & hardware, new toilets, granite shower & new plumbing * today’s high temp. 72 degrees * walk to beach, only 1/2 mile to pacific ocean. Interior location
Price Reduced: 06/21/07—$575,000 to $525,000

Price Reduced: 06/21/07—$525,000 to $524,900

Price Reduced: 06/24/07—$524,900 to $524,750

Price Reduced: 06/26/07—$524,750 to $524,600

Price Reduced: 06/27/07—$524,600 to $524,500

Price Reduced: 06/28/07—$524,500 to $524,400

Price Reduced: 06/30/07—$524,400 to $524,300

Price Reduced: 06/30/07—$524,300 to $524,200

Price Reduced: 07/01/07—$524,200 to $524,100

Price Reduced: 07/02/07—$524,100 to $524,000

Price Reduced: 07/03/07—$524,000 to $523,900

Price Reduced: 07/08/07—$523,900 to $523,600

Price Reduced: 07/08/07—$523,600 to $523,200

Price Reduced: 07/09/07—$523,200 to $522,900

Price Reduced: 07/10/07—$522,900 to $522,800

Price Reduced: 07/10/07—$522,800 to $522,200

Price Reduced: 07/11/07—$522,200 to $521,700

Price Reduced: 07/12/07—$521,700 to $521,200

Price Reduced: 07/13/07—$521,200 to $520,500

Price Reduced: 07/14/07—$520,500 to $519,500

Price Reduced: 07/16/07—$519,500 to $518,500

Price Reduced: 07/17/07—$518,500 to $518,000

Price Reduced: 07/18/07—$518,000 to $517,000

Price Reduced: 07/19/07—$517,000 to $516,000

Price Reduced: 07/20/07—$516,000 to $513,000

Price Reduced: 07/23/07—$513,000 to $512,000

Price Reduced: 07/25/07—$512,000 to $511,000

Price Reduced: 07/26/07—$511,000 to $509,900

Price Reduced: 07/27/07—$509,900 to $508,900

Price Reduced: 07/28/07—$508,900 to $507,900

Price Reduced: 07/29/07—$507,900 to $506,900

Price Reduced: 07/30/07—$506,900 to $505,900

Price Reduced: 07/31/07—$505,900 to $504,900

Price Reduced: 08/01/07—$504,900 to $504,000

Price Reduced: 08/02/07—$504,000 to $499,800

Price Reduced: 08/03/07—$499,800 to $495,000

Price Reduced: 08/04/07—$495,000 to $485,000

Price Reduced: 08/05/07—$485,000 to $479,900

Price Reduced: 08/08/07—$479,900 to $479,500

Price Reduced: 08/11/07—$479,500 to $479,250

Price Reduced: 08/16/07—$479,250 to $478,900

Price Reduced: 08/18/07—$478,900 to $478,888
Last Sale: 10/30/03

Sales Price: $400,000