With domestic out migration, who will buy our overpriced houses?

Mar 11th, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-03-11 09:17 AM

The governor and Obama should think about changing the tax system.

The influx of Latino is fueled by the fact that they can get free schools, cheap medicine for their kids, food stamps, etc, but don’t pay taxes at all because of low incomes. 50% of the US population doesn’t pay taxes at all because it’s socialistic: the rich pay all taxes.

Why does the governor want to raise sales tax, auto registration fee, etc but says nothing about raising house property taxes?

Why does he want to cut school financing? The future of America depends on highly educated people who can create technically complex products.

Doesn’t he understand that low-skilled foreigners only consume, don’t produce anything competitive?

Astute Observation by matt138
2011-03-11 12:06 PM

poor people might vote differently regarding taxation if it affected their pocketbook as well.

the “eat the rich” mentality scares capital to other countries and hinders job opportunity here which serves to lower wages and standard of living - oh the irony.

MIT Grad?  most likely a statist, but what would you expect from the educated elite of this country?

Astute Observation by MIT Grad
2011-03-11 09:30 AM

Vincenzo,

I know you might one of those undercover racist who blames foreigners for your own lack of accomplishment, but it’s getting old. Take some personal responsibility for your failures in life instead of blaming it on brown people. You can succeed too, if you remove the hate from your heart and concentrate on making something of yourself.

I did it, and yes, my parents were immigrants. I had to deal with racist remarks when I was younger from people who thought like you. I got free lunch, and food stamps, and my father worked in a cement factory. He didn’t produce anything “technologically” complex, but he did work very hard to put me through school.

I learned from his work ethic, and eventually was accepted at MIT (c/0 2002) on a full ride scholarship. Now I work at Apple, you know, the company that created the iPhone?

Before you blame others for your own personal failures, remember, some of the problems you may be experiencing may be internal. Sometimes change comes from within.

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-03-11 10:27 AM

I haven’t failed, it’s the socialist state of California that has failed. I have nothing against brown or red or yellow people. I just have the perception that socialism or communism, which favors the poor and equality, is not good for the state. Your perception can be different.

Yes, I’ve checked a few products from Apple. All had labels “Made in China”. I also checked the products from HTC, a Chinese company. The same quality, better prices.

Can you ask Steve Jobs, “Why would he hire American engineers when Chinese or Indian ones are 10 times cheaper?” For some reason, many Irvine companies told me, “We have a team in India or Russia or China. Now, what is your rate?”

Astute Observation by Alix
2011-03-11 10:39 AM

“I just have the perception that socialism or communism, which favors the poor and equality, is not good for the state.”

Dude, the fact that you don’t know the difference between socialism and communism, speaks volumes on how much you know what you are talking about.

I cannot resist, you think you are John Galt?

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-03-11 11:14 AM

Communism is in China ruled by the Communist Party. It’s great: people have permission to work for $100 a month 12 hours a day and live in factory dorms.

Socialism is not as good.
Sweden is a socialist country. 1 million people out of 4 million of the working age live on unemployment and get free apartments from the government. No need in higher education because an highly-skilled engineer earns almost the same money as a factory worker.
Haven’t heard about Swedish achievements for a long time.

Astute Observation by Alix
2011-03-11 11:49 AM

“Socialism is not as good”

See what you are doing there? You are drawing a conclusion. Then you go running of making statements who are not really grounded in reality.

“Haven’t heard about Swedish achievements for a long time.”

Gee I don’t know man. Their GDP is almost as high as us. Their Gini Index is lower than ours. Per Wikipedia, only 10 nations hold more patents than the Sweden and they are second only to Switzerland in natural science and engineering in terms of the number of publications per capita.

But heck man, let’s not allow facts get in the way! Socialism is Evil!

I am an independent IT consultant and have worked (not visited but actually worked) in 6 different countries. I like to think that it offered me an opportunity to realize that every society and country needs to evolve a system suited to its needs. I don’t have anything against capitalism, nor am I a die-hard socialist. What riles me up is when I see labels like socialist thrown around as if it is a 4 letter curse.

Don’t get me started on my retired parents on Medicad complaining about the socialist obamacare.

Astute Observation by Chris M
2011-03-11 09:59 PM

I’m no socialist, but I think you’re just making it up here. Sweden is socially liberal, but fiscally conservative. They’re in much better shape than we are after this housing bubble. And where else am I supposed to get flapper valve steel? Sandvik just gave me another 5% price increase.

Astute Observation by darms
2011-03-12 01:07 AM

I’d ask Steve Jobs (if I could) “Why would he hire American engineers when Chinese or Indian ones are 10 times cheaper?”. I’d hope his answer was “So that they could afford to buy the products they were designing.

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-03-11 11:09 AM

About racism.
Somehow, people say politically correct things but don’t want to send their kids to public schools in the middle of Santa Ana to get experience from the children of new immigrants.

Astute Observation by Chris
2011-03-13 07:12 AM

Santa Ana’s nothing. Try Compton or East LA.

Astute Observation by Partyboy
2011-03-11 10:31 AM

MIT Grad,

I’m not sure how an MIT grad jumped to the conclusions you did from Vincenzo’s comments.  What makes you think that he is a personal failure?  He seemed to be commenting on the fact that 50% of people in the US don’t pay income tax and yet the government continues to try to squeeze those of us who do pay income taxes.  Based on his complaint, I would have to assume that he is in the 50% who do pay taxes, meaning he has done okay for himself. 

As for myself, I don’t agree at all with the current tax system.  I would love to see a less graduated tax scale.  Actually, I would like to know what percentage of income taxes go to research grants, entitlement programs and pet projects.  For the sake of discussion, let’s assume that equals 50% of state income tax revenue.  I think that every taxpayer should be able to allot 50% of their taxes to the programs THEY support.  If I wanted 50% of my taxes to go towards environmental research, I should be able to decide that.  If I wanted 25% to go towards AIDS research and 25% to go towards welfare for single moms, I should be able to choose that.  It would be a much more democratic way of doing business than we currently have in place.  I just don’t think that it is fair that proportionately I contribute more money to the goverment spending allowance than I have power to decide its use.  In fact, the less you pay in taxes the more decision power per dollar contributed you have.  Doesn’t that seem a bit backwards?

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-03-11 10:40 AM

The FCBs will save us. Irvine will become a hub of savvy buyers who seek to outbid each other with cash for an Irvine tract home.

The 2010 Census data seems to agree:

2000 Irvine population
Total 143k Asians 42k 29.4%

2010 Irvine population
Total 212k Asians 83k 39.1%

And I don’t think that even counts the Middle Easterners and Indians.

The problem with being one of the highest prices markets in the country is that every nearby market pulls you down by the substitution effect. The high prices in coastal California pushes growth inland as buyers substitute driving distance for cheaper housing. Cheaper substitutes in Riverside County limit price increases in Orange County.

The substitution effect for Riverside was more effective when gas was cheaper. Now, that gas and/or toll road premium you have to pay (not to mention the commute time and hassle) makes that difference in house prices less attractive.

I think South County and closer homes will see more buyers than the IE. Not only do they have more inventory than Irvine, they are over 20% less. The problem is there isn’t enough ethnic demand there (maybe someone should build a Diamond Jamboree center in Ladera).

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-03-11 01:15 PM

I think you figured out the solution to Ladera Ranch’s problems.

Start with a Ranch 99.

Before you know it the schools and property values will be premium.

Astute Observation by Chris
2011-03-13 07:16 AM

Dude, give me a break on Ranch 99, will ya? I don’t think San Gabriel is all that great of a city to live in even with all those Chinese markets.

Astute Observation by Walter
2011-03-11 03:07 PM

Hope you are right. Just put in an offer in Foothill Ranch.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-03-11 03:24 PM

Areas like foothill ranch benefit from their proximity to Irvine.  South County doesn’t hurt Irvine in any way.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-03-11 08:20 PM

Irvine = South County + 20 minutes in traffic each way.

I know someone who works in the Airport district that moved from Irvine to San Clemente. Each offers different things, and people can choose based on their lifestyle or other desires. He uses his commute time, so he doesn’t mind the extra 20 minutes.

South County is a substitute for a significant demographic that also buys in Irvine. Perhaps you and your friends wouldn’t buy down there, but others will and do.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-03-12 07:51 AM

The people who buy in south county generally aren’t interested in buying in Irvine, or have given up on Irvine.

South County prices are set by The 20 minute commute to Irvine jobs and the longer commute to more jobs up north.

South County prices are helped by Irvine.  South County does not hurt Irvine.

Astute Observation by BHC
2011-03-11 05:41 PM

I don’t think that will work.  Back in 2005, my wife and I went to that area to look at more affordable housing.  It was late, so we decided to grab dinner at Chili’s.

When we went inside, you’d think we brought a giant panda in with us.  Every head turned and stared like they had never seen dark-hair-brown-eyes before.

Until that changes, I don’t know how many FCBs will be attracted to that area.

The other deterrent was the 20-odd minute drive just to get to the I5.

Astute Observation by darms
2011-03-11 10:44 AM

The day you folks in the ‘Golden State’ passed Prop. 13 (06/06/78) was the day I realized I would never be a CA homeowner. The freeze in property values at 1975 levels meant it was obvious to this person (22 years old at the time) that new buyers would be the ones stuck with higher values and thus larger property tax bills. But why your state doesn’t revalue real estate everytime a HELOC or Re-Fi was made against the property based on an increased assessment value seems at best a missed opportunity. Oh well…

Astute Observation by matt138
2011-03-11 12:13 PM

stop inflation.  problems solved.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-03-11 12:16 PM

Um, can you explain your conclusion that Prop 13 results in higher sales prices?

Astute Observation by zubs
2011-03-11 01:29 PM

Prop 13 gives an incentive for people to hold their homes which means less inventory which means higher prices.  Getting rid of Prop 13 will cause more people to sell homes…more inventory ..lower prices.

Astute Observation by zubs
2011-03-11 01:38 PM

I have a good example of the prop 13 effect.

I bought a house in 1981 for $90,000.  It is now worth about $425,000.  The prop 13 allows for 2% appreciation/year I believe, so after 30 years of ownership, my house is taxed at $196,000 in 2011.  It goes up every year, but only at about 2% max.

So my prop tax bill is close to $2,000/year while my neighbor who bought last year is around $5,000.

I’m renting this property out, but if there were no prop 13, I would have sold it.

Astute Observation by darms
2011-03-12 01:16 AM

zubs gets ‘the rubs’ - I knew back in 1978 that soon there would be identical properties located adjacently which would have 10X value differences based on when thy bought. That’s when I gave my west coast push and, BTW, I would have been a worthy SF resident had we moved there in 1964 as we would have if ‘x’ had not…. But it did, we did not, & f*ck prop 13…

Astute Observation by Woordbury Renter?
2011-03-11 12:30 PM

The desire to not be overrun by illegal immigrants has absolutely nothing do with racism, not that Mexican is a ‘race’ anyway.  We need to enforce our laws, eliminate sanctuary cities, cut off health care, education and food subsidies to those here without permission, and put teeth into laws that punish companies for employing the unauthorized.  If every state took these steps we would have to take down those stupid border fences to avoid bottlenecks for the waves of people walking back to their home soil.  Believe me, I would say the same thing if the country were overrun by millions of Canadians or Swedes.  And before the liberals accuse me of being stupid just let me say that I am fully bilingual and have lived in Mexico and Central America.  This has given me perspective into the thought process of those that head North.

Astute Observation by FCB
2011-03-13 08:33 AM

Don’t be racist, we do it for the children!

Astute Observation by Why do tech workers think they're SOOOOO special?
2011-03-11 12:32 PM

Funny when you get people who claim to be “brown” yammer on about how successful they are in IT/Tech/etc. and work for companies like (insert big corporate conglomerate here).

All those people can easily be replaced by even “browner” and “hungrier” people in a flash.

So, I suggest that all of you STFU and get off your MIT high horses because there are probably plenty of people in (insert brown country here) that would love to come over here and do your keyboard banging jobs for $10/hr or less.

It wouldn’t even matter if you’re a fu**ing surgeon.  There is somebody out there that would gladly learn whatever is necessary and undercut your salaries.

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2011-03-12 12:28 AM

Go to the job hunting websites of the big IT companies and you will see many many IT openings for computer programmers.

The openings are always there and the companies interview hundreds and hundreds all the time, trying to find one who is good at it.

The IT companies already scour the world for them, and get H1B visas for all they can find to hire.

They can’t find enough.  Wanting to code for $10/hr and being born with the ability to code are two different things.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-03-12 08:16 AM

Exactly right, $10 an hour my ass.  They import them into 6 figure jobs.  The companies can’t find enough here, unfortunately because not enough US citizens have the drive to get phds and improve themselves.

Astute Observation by IT Guy
2011-03-13 08:49 AM

Salaries in IT have stagnated for over 10 years. I’m making the same salary I made in 2000 and haven’t moved since. Why is that? Because globalization puts a downward pressure on salaries here in the US. As such, IT in the private sector is a dead-end career now. The only caveat to this is working for the government, which generally has a US citizen only requirement for employment.

Astute Observation by Vincenzo
2011-03-12 12:55 PM

IT companies don’t need to bring anybody to the US.
Go to the Careers section of Broadcom.
City: Bangalore, Bangalore, Bangalore…

It’s even easier for small companies: supply a bid for a program, website, etc and somebody will create it for $200.

Astute Observation by JL
2011-03-11 01:12 PM

Thoughts and prayers to the people of Japan and those affected by the earthquake.

Just a quick comment on the featured property - I used to live in Corte Bella (aka community of ‘aisles’).  Back in 2004, I rented the master bedroom in one of the units that faced the gate and fountain.  Had a very nice time living there, no complaints for the most part - there was this one time where water flowed down the air vent, other than that not much else to complain about.  I think the landlady did complain about the high HOA at the time, among some other things.  Would I buy a unit there now?  Sure, if they cut the price in half (asking and HOA).  Haha.  Otherwise, I’ll just rent there if I needed to live in Irvine.

Regarding the communism/socialism discussion - I think it’s best summed up as the resentment against the ever expanding growth of the statist government and welfare state.  If you think such growth is good because it promotes ‘social justice’ (whatever that may mean to you) and ‘fairness’ (again, whatever that may mean to you), then well, good for you.  Others see the growth of government as an decrease in their liberty and property (i.e. increased taxes).  Welfare programs like medicaid/medicare/social security may sound like good ideas at the time, but in the end it will bankrupt this country (those entitlement programs already take up more than 60% of the federal budget).  The effect of those programs is that people are less self-reliant and sufficient and increase their dependency on those programs (i.e. they have a increased ‘sense of entitlement’).  Why take care of yourself, be prudent and save for a rainy day and retirement when you know you’ll be covered?
It’s this same line of thinking that produced the idea of ‘too big to fail’.  If you know you’ll be bailed out if you don’t make good decisions, then there is a lot less incentive to make good decisions in the future, and just take more risk and gamble and ‘enjoy life’.
If you want an illustration of the difference between capitalists and socialists/communists, just compare the tea party rallies with the protesters in Madison, Wisconsin.
In case you are confused, socialists and communists were part of the protests in Madison.

Astute Observation by Alix
2011-03-11 04:44 PM

The focus of populace should be on ensuring that govt is fair to all its citizens and corruption is kept in checked. Social justice and equality are accepted as desirable everywhere in the Western world. When I travel, nowhere (in the democratic, western world) do I run into people who equate taxation with reduced liberty. 

All this talk of socialist this and that is just hogwash. Heck the govt needs to be kept out of it! The fact that the Gov in Wisconsin is sucking up to the Koch brothers is ignored. Sometimes, I think that the rich and the powerful want to turn the clock back to when we had children cleaning chimneys and no one had to worry about the bad gibment sticking its nose where it did not belong

It is all sold

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2011-03-11 10:05 PM

“back to when we had children cleaning chimneys and no one had to worry about the bad gibment sticking its nose where it did not belong”

The state of MO (just call it the State of Misery) is returning to the early 19th century as its legislature contemplates a bill that would remove ALL restrictions and regulations on child labor for children under age 14. The bill will remove all restrictions on age, working hours, working conditions, and types of jobs.

There’s nothing “libertarian” about exploiting children who are half-formed and subordinate to adults by law and by their own unformed state. Children have no way to defend themselves against the exploitation and brutalization that will surely happen if this legislation passes.

We’re reversing all the progress we’ve made in protecting the weak and defenseless in the past century.

Astute Observation by nik kim
2011-03-12 09:19 AM

so this seller has lost -8.3%... if they had bought similar profile home somewhere other than irvine, wouldnt they have lost more?
definitely love reading the ihb, have learned much about real estate from many of the posts… the one thing tho about irvine, and your comment that maybe the FCBs will save us.. i guess you mean negate the impact of the double-dip in irvine? yes i think so…but no, i dont think they are savvy buyers..
they just want a home to own, and irvine has to be it..
speaking from personal experience, those with the means to move to america from china/taiwan/korea.. they only want to live in irvine(of course san marino is what they aspire to), even forcing their american-born ethnically-asian spouse/son-in-law to commute 45 miles one-way to their job in downtown la.. i remember asking, whats wrong with los alamitos or cypress? not enough white residents(safety factor) and/or not enough asian food(comfort factor) was the response.. i guess that would be the out-migration of whites from ca reflected in the census

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