Winter

Oct 14th, 2008  
by IrvineRenter  in Price Rollback

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Agent#777
2008-10-14 05:00 AM

“A spa-like master suite and retreat that is straight out of the Ritz-Carlton”?

Haha - he forgot to add “with only HALF of the equity burn!”

Astute Observation by winstongator
2008-10-14 05:57 AM

At a 1% teaser, and if the heloc was at 6% or so, they were making a higher payment on the heloc than on the main mortgage!

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-10-14 06:09 AM

That is exactly why speculators loved this loan so much. There are two things that make speculating in real estate difficult: large downpayments, and large debt-service payments. With 100% financing and Option ARMs, these two barriers to speculation were largely removed.

Astute Observation by MalibuRenter
2008-10-14 06:42 AM

Is it your opinion that most of the foreclosures on speculators and fraudulent purchasers (default at payments 1-4) are already REOs?  Are there many of them still going through the foreclosure process?  If so, fewer foreclosures will have that never moved in, never lived in look.

Astute Observation by janon
2008-10-14 01:55 PM

1% Option ARMs were really only 1% for the first month (sometimes a couple or three months).  The lender took advantage of the mathematical fact that a 1%, 30-year amortizing mortgage has about the same monthly payment as a 4% interest-only mortgage (which was market for loans based on the 1-month LIBOR rate at the time, plus a margin).  The first month’s payment went mostly to principal—equivalent to about 1/4 of 1% of the principal amount, which is in the range of concessions that lenders normally offer.  After that, the borrower kept making the same payment, which was roughly the right amount to cover interest at 4%/year.  Of course, if LIBOR went up (as it has now done dramatically), the payment wouldn’t cover interest, which would be added to principal every month until the loan hit the neg-am ceiling (110% or 115% of the original loan amount), at which time the loan would convert to an amortizing ARM. For what it’s worth, it was and is illegal under the Truth in Lending Act to advertise such a loan without showing the limited time for which the discounted rate applies and, equally conspicuously with the rate, the annual percentage rate.  A few conspicuous TILA cases filed by the FTC or a state AG (who were preoccupied with sexier “predatory lending” cases), or some effort by the OTS to limit purchases by big thrifts of these loans, could have made a big difference.

Astute Observation by Shakespeare's Fool
2008-10-14 06:45 AM

GLOUCESTER [later Richard III]
Now is the winter of our discontent
Made glorious summer by this sun of York;
And all the clouds that lour’d upon our house
In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.
Now are our brows bound with victorious wreaths;
Our bruised arms hung up for monuments;
Our stern alarums changed to merry meetings,
Our dreadful marches to delightful measures.
Grim-visaged war hath smooth’d his wrinkled front;
And now, instead of mounting barded steeds
To fright the souls of fearful adversaries,
He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber
To the lascivious pleasing of a lute.
But I, that am not shaped for sportive tricks,
Nor made to court an amorous looking-glass;
I, that am rudely stamp’d, and want love’s majesty
To strut before a wanton ambling nymph;
I, that am curtail’d of this fair proportion,
Cheated of feature by dissembling nature,
Deformed, unfinish’d, sent before my time
Into this breathing world, scarce half made up,
And that so lamely and unfashionable
That dogs bark at me as I halt by them;
Why, I, in this weak piping time of peace,
Have no delight to pass away the time,
Unless to spy my shadow in the sun
And descant on mine own deformity:
And therefore, since I cannot prove a lover,
To entertain these fair well-spoken days,
I am determined to prove a villain
And hate the idle pleasures of these days.
Plots have I laid, inductions dangerous,
By drunken prophecies, libels and dreams,
To set my brother Clarence and the king
In deadly hate the one against the other:
And if King Edward be as true and just
As I am subtle, false and treacherous,
This day should Clarence closely be mew’d up,
About a prophecy, which says that ‘G’
Of Edward’s heirs the murderer shall be.
Dive, thoughts, down to my soul: here
Clarence comes.

Astute Observation by Goindy
2008-10-14 06:52 AM

“A spa-like master suite and retreat that is straight out of the Ritz-Carlton”?

BWAHAHAHAHA, with a plastic shower enclosure? Oh my that is hilarious.

Astute Observation by Alan
2008-10-14 03:58 PM

So you can also wave to the neighbors across the (short) way from the comfort of your bathtub at the Ritz-Carlton as well? I guess those hotels aren’t quite up to their reputation. Or maybe they only take in guests attractive enough that you’d want to watch them.

Astute Observation by .
2008-10-14 07:13 AM

I really like this line:

“The good news is that the America that will emerge on the other side of this severe and protracted recession will be the America we once knew.”

I’m really hoping this recession will be the end of places with $5 coffee, $5 frozen yogurts, $20 hamburgers and $300 jeans.

Last weekend I spent the day going to liquidation sales at Mervyns and Linens and Things thinking I could find a good bargain.  All I saw was a bunch of overpriced junk.  I know it will be unpleasant for a lot of people, but I’m really not going to miss most of these newly popular retail establishments.

Astute Observation by r€nato
2008-10-14 07:56 AM

Let me 2nd that ‘overpriced junk’ comment. I expect a liquidation sale to have, you know, real honest-to-goodness discounted prices. Instead what you are likely to find is modest discounts; the only fire-sale pricing comes on the absolute junk that nobody else wanted.

I remember going to CompUSA when they were starting to liquidate and it was the same thing; 10% to 30% off retail, which really was not much of a bargain. I understand the liquidator wants to make as much as possible on the inventory, but WTF? Are there people out there who really think that 10% off retail is a liquidation price?

Astute Observation by EvaLSeraphim
2008-10-14 08:48 AM

Unfortunately, I think what we are seeing now is the true America.  Don’t believe me?  Pick up “The Worst Hard Time,” which in the first third of the book discusses the wheat boom.  For an older example, try “The Gilded Age,” by Mark Twain and Charles Dudley Warner - mocking the post Civil War boom and land speculation.  Honestly, I think much of American history can be explained in terms of boom and bust with some wars in between.

Astute Observation by Walter
2008-10-14 09:04 AM

I think some of this is due to computers modeling and simulating every possible thing we can throw at them. So, after lots of number crunching, it is found that the greatest recovery can be had by this mark down, then the next markdown, then selling off the inventory and losing the retail overhead, blah, blah, blah.

Gone are the days when a shop owner cuts the price in half, sells everything off and shuts down.

Astute Observation by phil
2008-10-14 11:26 AM

I concur.  In fact, this is the same thing we’ve been discussing with houses and knifecatchers.  Why sell at 50% off when there is someone out there willing to buy it at only 20% off.

Astute Observation by idrnkurmlkshk
2008-10-14 07:42 PM

“I’m really hoping this recession will be the end of places with $5 coffee, $5 frozen yogurts, $20 hamburgers and $300 jeans. “

Sorry, but after all these bailouts (1 trillion so far), in a few years your going to look back and wish hamburgers were still $20.

Enjoy these prices while you can!

Astute Observation by ConsiderAgain
2008-10-14 07:39 AM

The $270/month dues are rough.  I drove through this area this past weekend.  I got the same claustrophobic feeling that I do in Turtle Rock.  I find it a shame this relatively nice area (many parts of SoCal really) was built to max density with low intrinsic desirability instead of regular/larger homes on normal lots.

We are going to eventually buy a house in Irvine or nearby because we have to due to work, but we are also going to buy another one somewhere else that can be a real home instead of a uber-expensive, pseudo apartment like this one.

My guess is this place will easily fall to <$500k.

Astute Observation by ockurt
2008-10-14 01:00 PM

I don’t know why you got that claustrophobic feeling in TR.  That area has some of the bigger lots in Irvine, with nice scenery to boot which I can’t say about this profiled neighborhood. Typical newer construction in Irvine like this ‘hood (unless you’re in Shady Canyon) is zero-lot line SFR (profiled) or 3 story condos that are all packed in.

To me, there’s no comparison to TR with this neighborhood.

Astute Observation by Tejano
2008-10-14 07:48 AM

Is it just me or have those credit card solicitations like Capitol1 which used to plug up my mailbox dropped off to near nothing recently?
This may be an upside to tighter credit and reduce wear and tear on my shredder.

Astute Observation by Walter
2008-10-14 09:09 AM

Last week I got over 10 of these things, so no drop off for me.

My credit is in the low 800s, maybe they are turning all their attention to people they assume have no risk.

Do you carry a balance on any cards you may have? I payoff every CC in full every month, that may also have something to do with it.

Any other ideas?

Astute Observation by Schadendude
2008-10-14 11:26 AM

Ya here’s an idea.  Why don’t you have someone read your posts before you click ‘submit.’ 

You sound like exactly the type of person IR is hoping will dissapear after the recession. 

“Oh durka, I have such great credit… everyone wants me… durka durka.”

Astute Observation by .
2008-10-14 04:22 PM

I feel special.  I just got another 0% offer from Washington Mutual to add to the three they sent me last week and the 40 they’ve mailed in the past month.  Now I know why they went under.  They wasted too much money on paper and postage.

Astute Observation by Walter
2008-10-14 09:34 PM

Sorry I posted. I as actually thinking about how irritated I am still getting my mail box filled with these offers.

Sorry I ruined you day.

Astute Observation by Tejano
2008-10-14 01:51 PM

Like you, my credit should be ok as we dead beats pay off every month. This summer Chase said they were sending me a new card with a “practically unlimited” line of credit which is a pretty scary thought. It never came. Maybe Chase is losing their nerve in this game of chicken?

I’ll just enjoy this nice lull in the junk mail for now?

Astute Observation by NanoWest
2008-10-14 08:00 AM

How about George Winston…...Winter.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2008-10-14 09:11 AM

“The downpayment was $90,000 or 10%. If this property sells for its asking price, and if a 6% commission is paid, the total loss will be $242,940. The owner will lose his $90,000 plus his credit rating, and the lender will lose the rest plus some negative amortization.”

That’s not bad with only $90000 lost. ( I wish I were in that good of shape with the 401.)  It looks like in CA, the debt is “eliminated” with the sale of the house.  Not bad, in the lots of placings the world the debt follow you.  Friend’s parent walked away with only a 70 point deduction on their credit score.  Not bad for over $200000 debt relief.  I though it would be much worse.  Better than stocks in which a real $200000 would be lost.

Astute Observation by DAve
2008-10-14 10:02 AM

Newbie points out that the non-recourse status of CA. first mortgages and the really minimal hit you take on your credit rating conspire to make walking away so utterly and undeniably logical. Given the peril it puts us all in though I would think it ought not be so very attractive.
One of the redeeming features of the Mc Cain plan was to make these mortgages recourse.

I’ll BET you that right now your credit rating would get dinged more by a $10000 judgment than a $250K walkaway.  That ain’t right-

Astute Observation by priced_out_it_guy
2008-10-14 11:52 AM

I wouldn’t worry too much about people’s credit not getting dinged because there won’t be much credit to obtain in the next several years to come. Free money to anyone with a good credit score but no job, no assets, and no brains hopefully will be a thing of the past.

IMO credit ratings are artificially contrived financial measurements based on unsound data-collection practices to persuade lenders to lend money so that intermediaries (brokers) can benefit in the short term.

Financial institutions place too much faith and credit worthiness into credit ratings and not enough in cold hard cash and other liquidable assets, the employment and financial history of a client, and realistic market expectations.

Astute Observation by Beinformed
2008-10-14 10:10 AM

I’m sure that most of you have heard that the credit card companies are now heading south.  People are not paying or paying very late.  Thus the CC companies are clamping down.  If you are late one day they start calling you, I heard this on NPR they are also cancelling cards that do not have activity on them, but are in good standing, seems to me they are trying to reduce as much risk as they can.  But seeing how our nation lives on CC I see this as another straw that will break the camels back.

Astute Observation by NanoWest
2008-10-14 11:52 AM

This is the next crises, that the government will have to fix. There will be massive walk aways from credit card debt…..especially when people realize that the debt is not secured.

Astute Observation by Mertland408
2008-10-14 10:28 AM

I wonder how many borrowers know that in a short sale the lender will 1099 them with the difference, thus owing the IRS taxes.

Astute Observation by priced_out
2008-10-14 11:58 AM

Welcome to last year.

Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007

http://www.irs.gov/individuals/article/0,,id=179414,00.html

Astute Observation by ochomehunter
2008-10-14 06:23 PM

With every job being lost, there are several others that get into danger of being lost as a consequence of cut in spending. That’s the impact the recessionary unemployment makes. With average negative savings rate and I would guess 90% in deep debt (net debt), I doubt that average american can even survive a single month without a paycheck, let alone those who literally live for Friday paydays.  Its about to get very ugly and very voilent in the coming months.

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