Irvine Housing Blog

I know the family who lived here so thought I’d clear a few things up for most of you....

1 - the house had 6 bedrooms when the previous owners bought it a few years ago.  they got financing through a bank and went through the HOA in Woodbridge the same way anyone else would so obviously the additions were legitimate and approved.  I looked at this house back then, as well, and the selling agent was Brad Dhesi who is a very prominent Irvine agent.  I have lived in Woodbridge for 20+ years and there is NO way the WVA would allow this property to trade hands without all the permits and everything else being legitimate and legal.

2 - the house is about 2700 sq ft if i recall - the previous owners (before the family who lost the house) had added 2 bedrooms which were much larger than the typical woodbridge bdrm and also an additional bath, making 3 1/2 baths and 6 bedrooms.  the last family used one of those as a playroom for their kids.  yes, they had kids who were most definitely saddened and affected by the whole experience as someone noted.  i know they had a pet too, lol, which they most certainly did not leave behind and is still with them.

3 - the $1million dollar price?  bad decision, i agree.  in fact, when these people bought it, i wanted to tell them they were making a mistake but how do you do that without coming off like a total jackhole?  i think their agent was really remiss in letting them go for it at that price.  however, if you actually go and see the place, it has a size of yard you will only find in a few homes in woodbridge.  the owners who did the addition also had approved plans to do an addition to the back making the house well over 3000 sq ft and still having a yard big enough for a pool, a basketball court and god knows what else.  there also is a big rose garden back there which was done by rogers garden for the owners who did the addition.

4 - culver/irv ctr dr - the yard comes to a pt in the back and it is only this tiny pt that actually borders irv ctr - the neighbors border culver entirely and the house behind borders irv ctr.  i have been to birthday parties and other functions at this house and there is very little noise or any of that.  every person who came in that yard commented how great it was and i know that must have been the big selling point for a young family.  you have to see it and also have to know the norm in woodbridge and have a heart for woodbridge to truly understand.

5 - paint colors - the woman who lived in the house hated the red and green rooms but that was what her kids wanted at the time and she let them have it.  kind of like when my parents let me grow my hair long - they didn’t like it but it didn’t kill them. 

Like I said, I don’t want to say too much in case they read this but this is a good family with deep irvine roots who will be around for a long time.  they screwed up big time but the vast majority of you have NO idea what you are talking about when it comes to this property and woodbridge.  i won’t get in to their situation and what led to the position they found themselves in - yes it was their fault when you come down to it but cut them some slack - they are a family with young kids. 

whoever posted about the offer last minute prior to foreclosure - you are right (do you know them too?) - the lender wouldn’t give an extension to take a look at this offer which was above what the lender had said would be required.  quite unfortunate for my friend, his wife and their kids - all of it.

According to Trulia, this place was sold (or foreclosed) Jan 10 for $850,719:
<a href="http://www.trulia.com/homes/California/Irvine/sold/576525-5-Morning-Dove-Irvine-CA-92604" rel="nofollow">

You are just another clueless ethnocentric american.

A product of bad public schools and too much White Wonder Bread and Skippy Creamy Peanut Butter with whole milk.

Yuck.

Pass me the vino, eh?

I suggest you read a few books to understand the meaning of Western Civilization.  You might want to start with Greek Culture and at some time, when you reach the Renaissance you might understand what I’m referring to.  I won’t even attempt to bring up the concept of the Holy Roman Empire and how the Goths created Western Europe.

Ignorant. 

By measuring the insulter, this is truly a complement.

IR… do you think someone in Woodbridge got pissed off at your website?

Should I drive down to those flatlands and throw some cigar butts out the window by Yale and Alton?

Err.. that would be CATALAN butifarra.  Everyone knows the Castilians have no clue for good sausages.

Except some folks in Woodbridge.

Hmm.... is this your first post?

Truly your ignorance shines through.

And, btw, I’ve lived in Turtle Rock since Reagan was in power, and yes, as a matter of fact, I am very familiar with Woodbridge and all the flat lands too.  Heck, I remember when the smell of the orange grows came across the 405 on those summer evenings.

Now all we got are stucco palaces, McMansions and not one but TWO 99 Markets!  At least there’s finally a Trader Joe’s by UCI, no longer do we have to trek to Costa Mesa at 19th street.  ( Hey, I know there’s one at Walnut too.. but I’ve lived in Irvine looong before that one opened too).

As far as Spain, France, Italy, eh, eh, eh.... I have spent more time in those countries that you have spent in school.

A distaste for foods.... did you even catch my comment about Marukai?  I throw my Meiji Tofu in your general direction.  Obviously you are completely clueless.  I shake my Spanish Butifarra at you and may my thai fish oil smear your White Wonder Bread and Creamy Peanut Butter sandwiches.  Yuck!

Sorry, but as a rule of thumb, before you go on the Internet shooting your keys, you should lurk a bit more.

Really, the day we gave the AOL’rs “at heart” free roam on the Internet was the day we lost the Internet.  I suggest you stop posting and lurk a bit longer before trying misbegotten character assassinations with your Miss Manners style.  I have to deal with enough such clueless people in my daily HOA that I don’t need more buffoons from the other part of town.

Not that I mind, really.  The Miss Manners contingent.. you know, the ones that will stab you in the back while they smile at you, are all over the world.  And, as a rule of thumb, I just flame them in a nice manner too.  It’s amazing how clueless the Miss Manners contingent can be.

As they say, chacon son gout.  So take this as a most mild flame and a rebuke to understand before you spew your self righteousness on the world.

Oh, speaking of Saddleback Valley.  Do you understand the meaning of sarcasm?  Did you read the post?  Did you miss that class in your advanced education?

Arriverderci, Au revoir, Adios, Sayonara.

Jeez… clueless people indeed.

Hey!  They pulled the listing today- it’s no longer on the market......  Wonder if they read the blog?

It could be irony 7 but with a heavy dose of hypocrisy.

Sort of like Senator Craig complaining about homosexuals and then getting nailed for solicitation.  Do we really believe he has a wide stance on the toilet?

Really?

Tonye just sounds ignorant.  I didn’t know Western Europe was one culture.  And there’s plenty of offal to be had in pretty original forms when one travels Europe.

Hey, just because I note that you’re pushing an agenda, too, by using too-simple calculations doesn’t mean I’m a RE bull. 

You’ve chosen to not re-do the calcs using CW’s assumption.  I take it that’s b/c they no longer prove your point:

10K yielding 1.87% is $159 in annual net income; $1590 over 10 years, assuming that the tax rate doesn’t change (bad assmuption). 

10k at 7% annual is $19670 after ten years; deduct taxes (@15%--also a bad assumption for 2018) from the gain and you have $8220

Total gain (incl. dividend income)= $9810.  And that ignores any brokerage or other fees on the equities.

Even using your numbers for the gain on the house, the house is over 50% better.  And you can live in the house, but not in your brokerage account.

Listen, I’m not suggesting anyone buy a house now, esp. not in California or Florida (or NYC, for that matter).  But making facile arguments using bad numbers is playing the same game that the Realtors and mortgage brokers do.  It doesn’t help anyone.

>… Why are you all talking about a house that the vast majority of you haven’t seen?

What an irony it would be if Shiny is a Taiwanese, Tonye often eat live toad, and Law_student lives in ghetto of Santa Ana?

Silly’s mom just want to point out the professionalism of the realtor, and Mav.... nevermind.

My point is that you don’t know any of us either, and ignorance is what make people happy and there is nothing wrong with it as long as no one is harmed.

I’m not a frequent visitor to this site, but I’m amazed at the ignorance that abounds here.  Why are you all talking about a house that the vast majority of you haven’t seen?  AND, to make matters worse, many of you don’t even seem to know where Irvine/Woodbridge is on the map!

First:  Yes, the rooms are tiny.  The colors on the walls are horrible.  The noise in the backyard is loud.  The upgrades are cheap.

Second:  Some thoughts about Woodbridge:  People come (and stay) in Woodbridge because of the amenities.  Most of you on this blog don’t seem to know about the two Lagoons (sandy beach-like lagoons with swimming areas, water slides, picnic tables, BBQ areas, fire pits, etc.), the “Big Wheel” park with a bicycle riding trail for the kids, the gazillions of other parks and pools tucked away all over Woodbridge, etc.  Woodbridge is a great neighborhood if you have kids.  Within walking distance of our house, we have three parks, a swimming pool and tennis courts.  All year long, we enjoy all sorts of Woodbridge parades, parties, events and activities (where else in Irvine can you play with snow and go sledding in the winter?).  I always thought I’d prefer Newport Beach to Irvine, but now that we’re actually in a position to move, we can’t leave Woodbridge/Irvine.  Among other things, Irvine schools are THE best in Orange County – just check the API scores.

Why would you have to be Chinese to like this area?  This is Woodbridge!  That’s like saying that you have to love Disneyland to like Anaheim.

SHINY railed on Asians for not letting their kids outside – isn’t that a national problem that we hear about constantly?  Usually, the blame is placed on the internet, video games and the 100+ channels available on TV – not on the ethnicity of the parents.  But have you considered that the kids in your neighborhood, like almost all kids I know, are not riding their bikes around because they’re being shuttled from school to soccer to piano lessons?  Isn’t that another national problem that we hear about constantly?  And what about Samantha Runnion and others like her?  Parents are constantly being scared into believing that their children are going to be whisked away.  Yes, when we were growing up, things were different.  WTF does that have to do with ethnicity?

SILLY’S MOM:  Saddleback Valley?  Why would you believe that?  Woodbridge is in the heart of Irvine – why wouldn’t Woodbridge have access to IUSD?  The schools for this listing are Stone Creek Elementary School, Lakeside Middle School and Woodbridge High School (all IUSD schools).

MAV:  Don’t you think the people who put in a last-minute offer for $870k are back?  I’ve heard the same facts as FURIOUS SUGAR.  Just wait and see.

TONYE:  “In my culture, Western Europe, a chicken thigh, duck breast, veal fillet, beef steak, all appear as single items to be coveted and eaten.” —I’m not sure I even understand what you’re trying to say in this sentence (and you’ll have to trust me when I say that I am a highly educated person).  But you seem to have a distaste for cultures that enjoy whole foods.  I suggest that you not visit Spain, Italy or the South of France when you are next in your Motherland.

P.S. to Law_Student:  “Crap neighborhood?” I thought one of the lessons of law school is to avoid being conclusory – perhaps you haven’t learned that one yet.  Better stick to studying.

I think it’s got to be scary as hell for young children to witness their parents being under such tremendous financial stress or to see your parents afraid for the future and for losing the home.
For every forclosused home in California we often forget that many of these homedebtors are actually families with children.  it makes the adult decisions to sign risky and unsustainable home loans that much harder to understand.  Is signing a mortgage to enter the “homedebtor club” so damn important that one would be willing to place the entire family under such stress and fear?  Either these adults meant well or just didn’t know any better, or there is a whole generation of greedy, financially inept, self-centered jerks out there.

Conforming loan limit increase, two steps away. And why it matters.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Are banks staffed entirely by know-nothing twenty-somethings? That is the impression that I get, whenever I have the misfortune of entering a branch. I know that the industry as a whole pays dirt-poor wages.

It is still outrageously priced at almost $800k. It is a thrasher, of the lowest order. So? It is larger, but not very large. I am sure the six bedrooms are puny. The place is almost falling apart. That it was ever one million, is a testement to the maddness of crowds.

Whee..ah.

Oh I forgot… you could always buy a house in Las Vegas.

Yeah right.  Go ahead and keep it in US stocks.

That’s like soaking the money in kerosene, putting it in a fire proof bag along with an 80 lb lead weight in it, flying up to 40000 feet, 200 miles off above the ocean, lighting the bag on fire and dumping over the whole thing over the Pacific.

Right now I’m SPECULATING… I am not INVESTING.

I’m speculating that our dollar is going into the toiler.

I’m not investing into either the Mexican or Canadian economies.

Jeez.  This RE listing is really hosed, eh?  If they make such an obvious mistake, what else did they screw up.

After all, the IUSD is a selling point.

But perhaps this house is on a black hole that opens up to a while hole south.

Perhaps that’s why the toilets were so prominently displayed.  They are the black hole portals to the Saddle Back Schools.

This listing is surely down the toilet.  Someone better flush this house out,

It makes the calculation simpler, but not incorrect.

First of all, let’s talk on the home side. Is your interest expense deductible? Yes, but only to the extent it exceeds the standard deduction, which for married filing jointly for 2007 is $10,700. If the annual interest expense is circa $11,000 and the property taxes are $3,000, you don’t have $14,000 of deductible expenses, you have $3,300 of deductible expenses. So a substantial portion of the theoretical tax advantage of a house gets negated by the standard deduction (and for certain individuals by the AMT).

On the stock side, distributions such as dividends are taxable at a maximum 15% rate. For a $10,000 investment yielding 1.87% at a 15% tax rate the first year tax cost is $28, which even with a 7% overall growth in investment is a .26% tax, netting 6.74%, using CapitalismWorks assumption (I used 10% because the previous poster did).

On the other hand, if you have a house in Irvine--or places like Tampa, which is suffering a similar collapse in prices--expecting any growth in housing prices is the bigger pipe dream.

Here’s a proposition. You buy all the real estate you want and I’ll buy all the stocks I want (and I do invest with Vanguard), and we’ll see who does better over the long term. Of course, the stocks don’t have a 95% debt overhand that I have to worry about either.

Dave

How did they do that?

The City requires insurance or a bond.

As a local pool builder in the area, I routinely utilize the city of Irvine’s building department’s website (http://www.irvinepermits.com/Default.asp?Build=PM.pmPermit.SearchForm&utask=scheduleinspections). This is to confirm permits have been properly finaled and recorded by the city. This site also lists any and all other permits which have been applied for through the city........(remodels, additions, patio covers etc) and what their current status is. This particular property has five permits listed as applied for, only one of which ( roofing) was finaled under the status field. Seems like a simple place to start for any realtor......simply type in a property address and the permit history is displayed. In the contracting business, if we do not final a permit the potential exists years down the road when a property is sold whereby we legally must come back and bring the existing project up to current codes ($$$$ CHA-CHING!) which any legitimate builder would avoid doing at all costs. However the remodel permit here looks like it was pulled under an owner-builder as there is no contractor listed...another red flag.

Not if you took the proceeds in 2005 and reinvested them in California real estate in a leveraged position.

Definitely a bad location, but I drove that culdesac this weekend and overall its a very nice neighborhood.  Not that far from the lake.  Close to some parks, elementary school, etc.  Very well kept area for its age.  I’m not into 70’s places, but if this house was on interior street, and didn’t have the unpermitted construction, I’d probably make a run at it.  $100K of upgrades would go a long way toward sprucing this puppy up.

Gung Hey Fat Choy everybody!
As for permits, I found 2 from 1995, 1 from 1998, 2 from 2002 and 1 from 2005.
http://www.irvinepermits.org/Default.asp?Build=PM.pmPermit.SearchForm&utask=normalview <http://www.irvinepermits.org/Default.asp?Build=PM.pmPermit.SearchForm&utask=normalview>

“but you don’t expect the seller or the agents to explains all the ramifications against their best interest”.

Of course, silly me.  What was I thinking ! 

Did anyone else notice that this house is in the Saddleback Valley Unified school district??

This property is against Irvine Center rather than Culver. A minor distinction, but still a fairly major street. There is another property for sale two houses down on the other side of the walkway that opens pedestrian access to Culver/Irvine Center. That home is larger, but priced similar in $/sq.ft.

My question is who gave this RE agent photography lessons? It’s like the auto insurance appraiser taking pictures to solely document the existence of the item. I look at these photos of the house and say, “Yep. There’s a toilet… and another toilet… and another. That’s Three!” and then, “Here’s the blue room… the green room… and of course the red room.” Very bold.

I also saw the recent listing on the adjacent street, Meadowgrass, with the Roger’ Gardens landscaping. I wonder, in a declining market, is that a selling feature worth paying $50k-$100K more?

1M was way to much for this property.  I agree - but, Law-student, it is not a “crap neighborhood” (It is probably one of the worst locations in Woodbridge).  Woodbridge is a nice place to live, good schools, good homes.  I have people from the east coast, mid west, and other parts of CA all comment on how nice Irvine and Woodbride is.  I have lived, seen “crap neighborhoods” - and Woodbridge isn’t one of them, the schools, parks, etc are too good to be ever considered “crap.”

Overpriced - sure.  We are in the middle of a national housing bubble, Irvine and Woodbridge are NOT the only places with WTF prices over the past few years.  But, just because there is a bubble and prices are dropping 25% doesn’t turn neighborhoods into “crap.”

I bought into Woodbridge a while ago when I was an law firm associate and prices were reasonable.  Happy I did and now that I am a partner I am still here with a family and we and enjoy it.

The seller may discloing the info among the pile of escrow document, and buyer may not read all the fine prints.  I am sure a lot of people sign document and notorize it without reading every single word on the page.

There are so many business and transaction where only dumb people “do the right thing.” As long as it is not unlawful, don’t mention the e word.  (ethnical) Sad.

A lot of things will be said or documented, but you don’t expect the seller or the agents to explains all the ramifications against their best interest.

You still pay asset management fees, custodial fees, administrative fees etc. on 401ks/IRAs. There was a nice article on Bloomberg today regarding all the cloaked fees lurking in retirement plans.  Not too mention all target date funds, and most 401K allocations include investments in various fixed income investments which have traditionally just barely beat inflation.  I think the average investor should be considering retirement based on a 7% nominal return on his/her portfolio.

as opposed to leaving dollars in a CD, which is more like setting the bag on fire.

though i’d imagine, if one is the wrong sect, the HOA may take the whole ‘arm and a leg’ thing somewhat literally.

Brings to mind what a finance professor said a couple of years ago about currency speculating. He said something like if you wanted to speculate on foreign currencies, you’d be better off putting your money in a bag and leaving it on his desk, because that’s what you’re usually gonna end up with, ie losing money. Not for the faint of heart.

my main stock holdings (like most americans) are in tax-sheltered retirement plans, which changes the math considerably.  but i do agree that the CPI is a complete crock and that anyone expecting >10% like clockwork out of the s&p is a bit misguided.

nice.  we need a wally george themed post.

Yeah, I get the whole caveat emptor business, but what about just doing the right thing.

I would think this would be on of those situations that would have to be disclosed by the seller because he/she was aware of it, no?

Both Mexico and Canada are to closely tied to the US economically to provide sufficient diversifcation away from the dollar.  Look around, you can find some better deals in currency.

Here is a link to chart of the S&P over the last 53 years.  Notice any similarities to any other asset classes…

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=

I didn’t know the former owners and I have no idea if any of the changes/additions were permitted.  Some things done inside seem out of the norm… but I’m no expert on construction requirements, etc.

Tonye is right- WVA (Woodbridge Village Assoc.) the neighbor HOA is very strict.  If there are any “violations” on the outside- they can (and will) hold up escrow.  But, as you can see from the photos- the front of the house is attractive enough-- it’s the inside that has the real issues.

What a dump.

$1M for a standard tract shithole that backs up to a major intersection?

Someone was smoking some major crack.

That POS is worth $500k tops in that crap neighborhood.

“Merrill Lynch’s figures are way too pessimistic, and they are unprecedented,” Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors chief economist told CNNMoney.com. “There is so much variation in local housing markets, and we see stable price conditions for 2008.”
“

I wonder if Dr. Yun PhD can explain the unprecdented increase of the house price around 2006?

buyer beware, and it is the buyer who need to pay due diligence, not the seller.  At least in the RE marketplace, this is true.

Most *Taiwanese* prefer the one at Walnut and Jeffery.  It is smaller, but appears to be more clean.  I doubt that it as to do with the remodel.

I agree with the freshness of the 99 Ranch.  Winter melon should last for an entire winter without refridgration, and the batch I saw in there last week was all half rotten already.  I guess if you don’t have good turn over, and don’t want to trash the meat/produce when they are on borderline, the quality just go down and down.

Great find ochomehunter.

“Permits unknown”

Am I the only one that believes a realtor should have a duty to disclose emphatically “unpermitted addition”.  The phrase “permits unknown” is a load of crap, they know they were unpermitted.  Just say so !  Otherwise, it looks like you are trying to pull a fast one on a FB. 

Same thing goes with square footage.  I always see the phrase “buyer to verify”.  If you are going to tout 2500 sq ft., can’t you at least verify it before you advertise ?

Something about housing prices is asymmetrical.

Homes prices PLUNGE 8%

Average homes rise 10% a year.

Huh?

Roasted chicken doesn’t have feathers.  Fish and shrimp don’t look human, besides my kids have been eating raw shrimp and fish at the sushi bar for eons.

Roast duck shouldn’t be for your diet, is it?  We has some left over duck from dinner in Chinatown over the weekend and I used it to make curry last night.

Most Chinese I know prefer the 99 market and restaurants at Walnut and Jeffrey.  I don’t know how much of this has to do with the Culver and Irvine Center Drive 99 market being remodeled and relatively inaccessible for a long time a few years back.

Ignoring taxes makes the analysis significantly incorrect.  The NAR “calculations” are pushing an agenda, but so are your “calculations”.  You want to debunk funny numbers, use real numbers, not different funny numbers.

Pesos and Canadian dollars (loonies).

...and another house that would sell for $250k or less in any other state.  I can’t believe someone payed a mil for it; was there mortgage fraud involved?

Over half a mil for houses like these… what a sham.  Wake me in a couple of years when people aren’t quite so delusional.

This house is kind of a gross-out!

Did you view the house?

Any idea what the sellars were thinking trying to peddle off unpermitted additions?

At least someone other than this Blog agrees to huge upcoming drop in home prices:

Housing prices to free fall in 2008 - Merrill
According to a Merrill Lynch report, home prices will drop 15 percent this year, and declines will continue in 2009.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)—The worst housing financial crisis in decades is only going to get worse, a Merrill Lynch report said Wednesday.
The investment bank forecasted a 15 percent drop in housing prices in 2008 and a further 10 percent drop in 2009, with even more depreciation likely in 2010.

Full story here http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/23/real_estate/merrill_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2008012317

Fine satire, Kirk.

What happens when the bank forecloses on your landlord.  Once again, you have no control over whether you stay in the house or not.  That is a simple fact.

Hey, Tonye, the Spanish issuers of evil mtg securities are trundling them off to the European central bank, in the guise of REPOs.

So they are doing worse (I think) than the Fed and doing it sneakily.

See the British Telegraph via Calculated Risk.

You-all, I’d think 2ce before investing in Euros.  It may be that the Europeans are worse than we are, just have more experience in covering things up.

Mmmm… roast duck ... I haven’t had a chance to eat that in years .... stop making me hungry!  I’m on a diet!

In “western europe” don’t they eat whole roasted chicken” sure they cut off the head - but everythings else is” there.
Whole fish - is often served in “Western Europe”, so is Whole shrimp with the head on (France, Italy, Spain).  Whole roasted pig is common dish across many cultures (e..g., the southern USA). 

Kids now a days don’t know where food comes from.  It is just packages from the supermarket, boned, filleted if not pre-cooked.  That they are so surprised that steaks, boneless chicken breasts actually came from an animal that had a head, feet, and yes guts.  Let alone that people don’t know how to eat the whole animal anymore- e.g., using the bones for soup, livers, etc.

Well… somewhere in this world, RE is doing well…

Soaring prices. Precious few homes. Bidding wars. Sound like Southern California a few years back? Welcome to an unexpected bright spot in global housing: Baghdad.

In today’s LA Times.

I have been fascinated with this house since it first went on the market last year.  Sellers put it out at 1.1M then quickly dropped it down in $50K increments until it hit $850K.  Hear that the agent presented the bank an offer at $870K-- but the bank had turned it over for auction hours before and said “no deal"- Boy, those bankers are smart!  They thought they could get more.

The biggest problem for this home is it has really bad fung shui- the lot is just terrible-- so tough sell to many in our community.  That, plus a crazy remodel which chopped it up.

Guess the bank had to go this low, when the property that resides just behind this one went on the market for $895K last week.  It has a pool and “Rodger’s Garden” landscaping.  And it doesn’t back to Culver.

It doesn’t for this property.  Read up.

Other properties… it’s all in the land and location, not the building.

In that case, I think I’d rather spend 1.5MIL on TR Terrace.  Those homes have 4b/2.5ba, 3 car garage, 2500 sq feet and a view all the way from the ocean ( Catalina some of them ) to Big Bear and out east.

The listed square footage, 2440 is per the assessor.  Since no permits were were taken out for the 2 added bedrooms the 2440 would be the pre-remodel square footage.

Given that the future buyers will be incurring the liability for possible certification and repair of the unpermitted additions, there is no way I see this beast moving in this market given the glut of inventory available.

If this is a foreclosure, why wouldn’t the lender sue the idiots who did the unpermitted remodel for damages?

My poor kids were screwed up at an early age when I bought take out from that Sam Woo takeout counter.  They chopped the entire duck, head included.

When I got home, we set up the table and I dumped the contents of the containers on trays, right then and there.

Lo and behold, my babies suddenly saw this fried head pop on top of their drumsticks to be.

Needless to say, it took them several years to get over it.

In my culture, Western Europe, a chicken thigh, duck breast, veal fillet, beef steak, all appear as single items to be coveted and eaten.  Never do we present any recognizable “animal” part with a “food” part.  If you must use stuff that’s recognizable, then make sausage out of it first.

But often you ran into the same kids again.

You have forgotten to include taxes and fees on your investments.  If you are using an equity index funds (Vanguard), you should expect to pay ~ 15 basis points.  Then you have to pay taxes annually.  The most recent dividend yield was 1.87%, so you pay ordinary income on those distributions, and this does not include capital gains on transactions within the fund (in 2007 it was actually a capital loss in excess of 6%). 

This all assumes you are managing your own investments and holding an index fund.  If not, raise your costs again by 1.00%.  Additionally, there are custodial fees that should also be included to reduce investment returns.

Finally, as I have stated before, the long-term historical returns on equities are skewed relative to the current predicament.  The CPI +7% figure is no doubt a reference to the Ibbotson study, where the very long term return on the S&P500 (or some equivalent for older time periods), produces a nominal return of just over 11%.  There are many reasons to believe that this number is very unlikely to be reproduced ex-ante.  Why?

We can decompose the 11% into the three components of equity returns: (1) dividends, (2) growth in earnings, (3) changes in valuation.

During the period of the Ibbotson study the average dividend was 4.5%, growth in earnings accounted for ~3% with inflation filling up the remaining 4%, P/Eaveraged roughly 14-16 times earnings that period. 

So let’s examine where we are today.  S&P500 dividends are ~1.5%, growth of earnings cannot outpace growth in the economy for any reasonable period, and are by all measures currently a larger percentage of GDP than normal, and P/Es at 16x earnings are unlikely to produce the substantial upward revaluations characteristic of bull-markets.  So you add it up we could be looking art 1.5% + 3% growth + 4% inflation = 8.5% nominal or 4.5% real.

I think it is safe to say that 7% real is pretty lofty (read unlikely) goal.

Am I the only one confused?

Why does $789K make any sense for this property—or even close?

I’m curious as to the permitted square footage, but even then I see dated floorplans with dated appliances in a budget kitchen.

Isn’t that Culver the property backs up to? I can’t imagine that to be a plus anywhere.

I actually not trying to be cynical, but how does this fit above $635 to $650?

JMTCW.......

Yes, there are significant valuation problems here. However, because it’s an established neighborhood, it will probably take several years to get back to “normal”. Probably longer than Turtle Rock.

There are no issues with going from 1 story to 2 stories, or adding significant sq. ft.

However, almost all the homes here do not have a view....and a second story isn’t going to add one. You are probably thinking of Harbor View South...and there view lines do put a crimp on expansion.

IR,

I think you might have to use a GRM of 180 - 200 on a SFR in Irvine

Just my oppinion.

160 or less for condos

or 160 for an SFR, that is old in a less desirable area

Again just my oppinion

A house that size with 5b/2ba should cost less than a 4b/2ba version because it must be crowded inside.

I figure that with a view, single story and if you can get away with it (HOA, view rights), in this environment, you could do a really nice job with a 300K remodel:  5b/3.5 ba @2800 sq feet.

Yeah, military brats are used to moving but that doesn’t change how much it sucks.  My dad got transferred when I was 2, again when I was 6, then again when I was 10.  While the military family community was great, and living on base was cool too, it was tough leaving all your friends, schools, etc. every few years.

Good luck with a mortgage is right, banks usually don’t mess with un permitted additions. The ones that do are pretty strict and need a licensed inspector to say that it was done in a workman-like manner and conforms with the rest of the house/neigborhood. Even at that, the LTV they will offer you will probably be low.  But I bet lenders are even stricter on it these days. Good luck with homeowners insurance as well, they will not cover a lot of things with an unpermitted addition and the lender will have to agree to that as well.

The bottom line is that that shopping center and the one just down Culver at Walnut are English-as-second-language central.  Indeed, when I first looked for housing in Irvine, we looked at a place across from the Culver/Walnut center.  The (very ESL) agent looked at us warily: you want rent here, she says quizzically.  So we bailed on that place and rented in Westpark.  I was new to Irvine and had little knowledge of what the neighborhood was really like.  Come to find out that it quite different from Newport Beach in a very significant way.  Not only are Irvine neighborhoods overwhelmingly plastic (being designed in an Irvine Co. boardroom rather than evolved naturally ) but they are quite foreign as well.  I am sorry but it is just odd to see my neighbors wearing gloves and welding masks to go to the market.  I never saw that growing up in the Midwest.  And I note that the kids don’t play outdoors much either, evidently they are cooped up indoors so they can study.  My neighborhood has a ghost town feel to it even though no homes are empty.  It is just a little too different from my perspective.  Having said that, I love the ethnic shopping opportunities such a mix enables.  But I do feel a bit out of place in Westpark.

The duck feet are removed, BTW.  You just have to realize that ducks have head, beak and all, not just some slices of breast meat between two buns when it hatches from the egg.

Do you think they might have some valuation issues there? $3,700 rent supporting a $1.6M price? A 432 GRM. Hmmm…

Some are chickens houseonlegs.  Where do you think they get the chicken feet from?  I’ve tried chicken feet before a few times at dim sum, but just can’t see the allure…

Nationally, houses appreciate at the rate of inflation (or slightly above).  Locally houses have, and could very reasonably be expected to beat inflation over the long run.

Keep in mind that mixing national and local statistics is misleading and borders on outright disingenuous.

Actually, it looks more like the photos are for showcasing the carpet, not the hosue.

Tose aren’t chickens my friend, those are ducks, whole ducks with the beak, eyes, feet and all just dripping in heat lamps, it’s the most discusting thing I have ever seen. That thought in my mind will haunt me forever. I’m not from that area but the first thing I thought of when I went to that shopping center was holy china!

A Democrat would cry that his Civil Rights are being trampled and that the City needs to protect him.

Then the City of Irvine would create a new department:  “Dept of People’s Feelings”, headed by “The People’s Feelings Advocate”.. and they