Irvine Housing Blog

... with Salt-water Solar heated POOL ...

IMO salt water pools are (although a clever idea) overhyped; the supposed advantage is not having to add active chlorine compounds, but you still have to remove debris, clean the filter, and keep the rest of the water chemistry under control (pH, salinity, hardness, copper [discourages algae], etc.).

Does anybody actually maintain their own pool in West Irvine?  I imagine that the pool service wouldn’t give much of a discount for not having to chlorinate.
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400K in a normal market with 20% down + 30 year fixed. 

It’s a nice house, but someone who is filthy rich and in the market for a million dollar home would think that this place smells “middle class”.

Not quite sure what these people were thinking when the promised to re-pay the bank 750K+.

The part that turns me off is the being able to reach out your bedroom window and shake hands with your neighbor.

Shouldn’t 1 million dollars at least buy a little more than an arm’s length between you and the neighbor?

This one has a long way to go.

Uh, $400k?  That would be great, but this home isn’t in Dallas (or Phoenix).  $650k sounds about right for a 2,500 sf house in West Irvine—- I’ll give this one $675-700k for the lot premium.

Exactly.  This is West Irvine.  Not Laguna or Newport.  It’s a not very exciting, safe (slightly) upper middle class town.  Despite 7 photos of the pool, they’ve neglected to show how much curb appeal it has.  I’m guessing not a lot.  I’m calling 500-525 when it sells in July 08.

As the above people have already suggested, it’s a decent home but a million dollars worth of decent?  Not so much.

I would go back to the ‘02 sale price of $500k and then add a bit for the time and/or upgrades (if indeed there are any that are worth paying more for, things like a salt water pool to me, are worth nothing).

It’s a nice place but it’s looking small in the photography.  The lot may be large for Irvine but it’s not large by any reasonable definition.

Unless there is a hungry knife catcher out there I’d string along (sort of) with OCNinLA and suggest that it would sell for around $600k sometime next year.  It’s not the the future buyer’s fault that the current owner overpaid for this place.

For me personally, not a dime over $500k.

I think the interesting thing about this house is it isn’t a complete nightmare and I think it could be telling what this place eventually does sell for (assuming it’s a “real” sale and not smoke and mirrors Super Jenae sale).

Funny, I first read the street name as pollyanna. I guess with an asking price of 1.112KB they did too.

At 675K, suppose you manage to save up the 135,000 cash down payment (20%) which may take awhile.  That leaves 540,000 mortgage.

Looking at a mortgage payment of around 3500.00 a month.

A married couple with houshold income of 100K per year will take home probably around 6000$ per month after taxes.

Mortgage payment would represent 55%-60% of the month paychecks?

Isn’t that scenario asking for trouble??

I know it is CA, but come on.  If it honestly commanded that kind of a premium, people would not be leaving the state by the boatloads to come to AZ and drive up our prices out here.

Why is 400K considered to be so “out of whack”?

If I made 100K per year, my logic tells me I can afford up to 4x salary which would be 400K.

The house in this article is nice - but not so nice that a very wealthy person would be interested.

When all is said & done, your forecast could prove true, however unlikely.  But you’re completely wrong that a $100K household income is “very wealthy.”  A $200K household income is not even “very wealthy” in LA/OC.

Wealth is correlated with income; but when that $200K income is taxed at 37%, while long-term capital gains is taxed at 15% and Congress is trying to eliminate the inheritance tax, you can see how income is destroyed while wealth is preserved by our tax system.

We purchased this exact same house from California Pacific Homes (affiliated with Irvine Co) back in 2000 for less than $300K.  Didn’t even had to be on a waiting list for one.  The tract was called “Kelsey Lane” in Oak Creek.  Other than the larger yards, there were nothing special about them.  House layout feels small, with below average construction material/quality.  Similar designs were also used in Woodbury’s Portisol development.  To me these are $400k homes, not $800K and certainly not worth $1mil.

Hi Mark.  I certainly was not trying to imply that 100K is “very wealthy”. 

My point was that this is a nice middle class home that someone who earns 100K a year ‘should’ be able to afford.

A very wealthy person with a lot of money to spend would most likely not be interested in this house.

So it seems logical that this house should be priced accordingly that someone who earns 100K per year should be able to afford this house without extending themselves to the point of spending half their paycheck each month on the mortgage.

IR suggests that there will be a knife catcher willing to purchase this property for 750-850K.

I wonder if that will really be the case, if knife catchers are reading blogs like this one, then the price fall will be much quicker and it wouldn’t sell till way below $650.

Keep us posted when you get sales IR

This would be a great property to start a pool on.  I’ll put my $20 on $625 in late 08.  IR, you could take 5% for running the pool and put that towards your dream Irvine property.

Inevitably, somebody is going to come along and mistakenly believe that they are getting a steal-of-a-deal million dollar home for 650K and flush their money down the toilet and go underwater within a year. 

If you don’t get it at this point then you probably never will and do not deserve to keep your money.  I’ve pretty much stopped trying to warn people.

Can’t save everyone.

Me too!

I was listening to 97.1 FM this Saturday and I couldn’t believe the aural vomit coming through my speakers.  On the weekends they broadcast a real estate show and the unbelievably biased, delusional cheerleading, and “BUY NOW” mantra was (still!) in full force.

Between spouting the “now is a great time to buy” stuff, their agent friends call in and hawk whatever horse crap they’re running that day (“absolute” auctions in Arizona, etc).  Unbelievably, every caller—regardless of their situation—is politely referred to the hosts’ own mortgage lending company.  I mean, who could take their opinions seriously?  If a drug dealer tries to sell you Florida Snow by telling you it’s non-addictive, would you take his word for it?

Anyhow, one woman called and it was clear she wanted to provide a contrary opinion and call some of the hosts’ opinions and advice into question.  As she was calmly speaking they hit the dump button.  When the conversation resumed, the host said something about “Uhh…we’ve never read that website so we can’t comment on what it might have said” and hung up.  (I had a strange feeling the caller brought up IHB).

I couldn’t believe it.  The minute someone tried to question their rose-tinted real estate assessment, they cut off the mic, hung up on the caller and went right back to “There is no bubble” and “The sub-prime problems are contained.”

I just looked at the location.  Why the hell would someone pay $1M to live out there?  Might as well live in Arizona.

Over $12,000/year for taxes.
Looks like an association plus some Mello Roos on top of that - my guess another $3k to $4k per year

$500k is what that place is worth.  I see nothing at all special about the home itself.  All those “bells and whistles” aren’t worth much in real dollars.

They’re on every Sat, and it’s hard to tell if it’s a real show or an info-mercial.

In Arizona we have ‘year round golf’ too.

I’ve caught that show a few times myself. It’s an infomercial. I thought it pretty funny. The first time I heard it a few months ago they were hyping investment property in florida! I wonder if all of the callers are real?

We have the same shows here in AZ.  The local talk radio stations give the day off to all of the Republican apologists and sell the time to local lawyers, real-estate bimbos, vitamin hustlers, etc who want to plug their products under the scam of performing some kind of public service.

I’ve been in this house, and it is nice, but nothing special.  Yard is deep but backs up to a main arterial road (Robinson) that perhaps 1,500 people or so drive by everyday.  Robinson almost exclusively feeds five different development in this part of West Irvine.  It a long baseball toss to Jamboree as well…

It’s been unoccupied for quite some time, so the entire mortgage and prop taxes are negative cashflow to the owner…  They had the place in escrow for $1M during the summer, but closing got delayed and delayed and the place eventually fell out.  Same floorplan right across the street (11 Pollena) has been on the market for almost a year and has been sitting at $899K for many many months with no action.

For whatever reason, this tract, Barrington, has not been able to attract buyer interest over the past six months.  There is a 3,100 sf place a few streets up that has been listed at $949K for ages:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1059004

The Pollena places would probably attract buyers in the low $800s right now.  There is another of the exact same floorplan a street above, listed for quite some time at $898K, that last sold in 2004 for $815K.  Strangley, none of these are using well known West Irvine realtors.  There are 2-3 guys that dominate this area and all these Barrington places are using other people…

Association is $45/month.  Buys you access to the pool down the street and a couple of association parties each year.  They just pay a master association, no sub.  Mello roos + bond is around $2300 per year…

I was impressed with the back yard. The pool, fire pit and built in bbq all look nice. It seems open with plenty of space and some privacy with nobody behind you, which is rare. On the other listing, the house is larger 3,100sq.ft. but on a much smaller lot. Interesting how they included no pictures of the back yard. Nice shot of the Marketplace sign though.

That is a whole lotta money that these sellers are going to lose when they finally get a buyer ($250,000 down payment).  Yikes!

Then a HELOC that is due on top of that.

Double Yikes!

I have a dumb question, why do they call that area west irvine?  Shouldn’t it be east Irvine and places like the University area be called “west irvine”?

I don’t consider this house is in Irvine.  The school district is TUSTIN!!!  This is absolutly a WTF asking price.

Can’t believe the property across the street.  11 Pollena.

Similar style and home sq footage but no yard and backs up to neighbors; on the market for the same price as 12 Pollena. 

12 Pollena has a relatively large backyard with pool.  It also does not have a dual incandescent/fluorescent DIY set of featured light fixtures in one room (see pic 6 of 11 Pollena).

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=487213

That baby has some stiff competition with 12 Pollena on the market.

This always drives me nuts when I drive by “West Irvine”.  C’mon, this is in the north eastern part of the city!  I guess “West Irvine” sounds better than “Northeast Irvine”.  I would not live in “West Irvine” for this reason alone

Also, I am also annoyed by the new “East Woodbury” neighborhood.  Shouldn’t this be “South Woodbury” 

Somebody get TIC a compass…

Assuming 4% appreciation from the 2002 purchase price, the home should have a sales price of $689,000 in Feb 2008.

The question is, was the 2002 price too high?

Make no mistake, this is a nice house and that is one nice back yard, especially for Irvine where land is a premium.

Are you referring to the “Real Estate Guys” radio program?  They encourage real estate as an investment.  I used to listen to them in 2004-05.  Major cheerleading as I suspect they still are doing.  Yes, they always refer their callers to a particular lender who will get them a great deal.

You can listen to current and past shows here:

http://www.realestateguysradio.com/listen.asp

I believe they are based in San Fran but broadcast and do housing market research all over the country.

I’ve used salt water pools before, and while they would add no value to me as a homeowner, I vastly prefer them to the traditional pools.  The chlorination isn’t really a pleasant feeling, and make me want to jump in the shower immediately after jumping in the pool.

This discussion is interesting and provides an idea for a different type of post, should IR or any of the IHB bloggers be interested.  I too believe that certain types of houses “should” be affordable to certain types of familes at certain income levels.  In other words, when I look at a house, it either feels like something I should be able to live in, given my income level, age and family size, or it doesn’t feel right—like it’s something that I’ve outgrown or “pretending” to be somebody I’m not.  For example, a typical Irvine condo or townhouse “should” be comfortably affordable to a single, working professional in their late 20’s/early 30’s.  Otherwise, all that inventory is attractive only to investors, and that’s not sustainable.  Right?  My question is, do prices currently support this and if not, how low do they have to go to fall in line?

I think that this perception is going to affect where we bottom out nearly as much as the rent multipliers (although the two measures are probably related).  Once people can afford a house that they “feel” is appropriate for them, buyers will start to move back into the market and prices will start to stabilize.  For the record—I think we are still 15-20% away from that point.

So the challenge for IHB is this:  compare incomes at the 10th, 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles with the “typical” Irvine property at those percentiles.  (Granted, you may want to skew it to take into account that historically, only 60-something percent of people are homeowners.)  Are they priced accordingly?  I doubt it.  And what might the comparison say about where housing prices need to go in the future?

Was the 2002 price too high?  Wish I knew; it certainly seems pretty high from my point of view.  According to Wikipedia, Irvine’s median household income is around 84K per year?  It certainly seems like a lot of people are over-extending themselves by entertaining those kinds of prices.  At the very least, loading a lot of eggs into one basket.

All I know is that I would never commit to taking on that much debt for this house.

It’s going to take some time for people to understand the paradigm shift that is taking place that equates houses with investments and equity with capital gains.

I know that not everyone believes in the 25% annual income rule and I suppose those people who are OK with always living right at the edge of financial disaster will “win” the day and get the house as their reward for taking more risk.

I’m perfectly fine with renting for the next 10 years.  I’m hopeful that the glut of rentable houses on the market will bring my rent cost down when I come up for renewal next year as the bloodbath ensues and all the falling knives start lopping off appendages.

Another great post, IR. “Even though it takes two to afford it.” LOL

“but when that $200K income is taxed at 37%, while long-term capital gains is taxed at 15% and Congress is trying to eliminate the inheritance tax, you can see how income is destroyed while wealth is preserved by our tax system.”

Very well put.

Is there a sales history on this home? What would it have sold for in 2000? I’d but at $400k.

Interesting post, Skek.  I like it.  So for instance, this house “feels” like it is something that would work well for my family (mid-late 30’s w/one child). Income x 4 would put us at a price of $700k, so does that mean that is a reasonable price for this house?  I guess so, since 4x income is a generally accepted number in CA.  That said, we are more conservative (thanks to IR) and think we can find something we can live with at income x 3 by late 2008-early 09. I don’t see this specific home falling into the $5’s as has been suggested by others.  If it does, I’ll catch that knife.

According to the MLS, earliest resale of this model was in 2003 for $650,000.

Also, FYI.  Two condos of this size (yes, this size) sold recently for $695,000 (this month) and $725,000 (September).

Thanks for the info ipoplaya-  this kind of “boots on the ground” commentary is what keeps IHB at the top of my list.

Interestingly-  I believe that many OC people’s perception of what “fits them” has changed dramatically with this latest price run up.  As IR and many others have pointed out-  many are living HELOC fueled lifestyles-  and having grown accustom to the “finer things” - their expectations of what is acceptable living conditions has changed.  It continues to amaze me what people spend their $$$‘s on.

I think the psychological aspect will hit as hard as the financial for these people— but will it change them long term?  Only time will tell.

Regarding price predictions and the housing bubble:
i would like to Suggest John Talbott’s book
Sell Now. published in 2006.
he predicts the end of the bubble. I read this book in july 2007 just weeks before I discovered this blog and before the shit started to hit the fan.

he predicts priced to drop to 1997 levels adjusted for inflation. basicly pre run-up prices.

pretty scary huh?
here is an example:

orange county 2005 price 618k
oc 1997 pice in 2005 dollars 275k 55% drop.

Ok i know this is really incredably bearish. but I do think the book was quite good I reccomend anyone to read it. I learned alot.
in fact IR stated many issued that were in the book which I though was amazing.

my 2 cents.

Median income in Irvine 89K

4 x 89K = $356K

maybe start a pool and give a tshirt to whoever guesses closest for the next sale and for the bottom sale?

So this house looks like a move-up house, certainly not a starter house. Suppose that the victims stay 7 years in their late 20s condo, and 7 more in house #1. They should be early 40s when they arrive here. Double the rule of thumb earning 10k per decade age (OC), and double it again for the Mrs, you are at $160k earning power: $13,000 monthly income. Price: at 4 X income, $640,000.

What is the reason to list on redfin with a “Undisclosed” address?

Is there really anything else to expect after a historic run up in prices, other than a historic drop?

Lost Cause -

Isn’t it a little bit of a stretch to assume a household income of 160K when the demographics data indicates a median income of 84K?

Is this house only worthy of the upper echelon of middle class wage earners?

I don’t know the answer to that.  However, I would think that for that kind of wage earner - they could certainly afford a house that is not within 5 feet of the neighbor.

Wow!  Do you really dislike Tustin that much?  Aren’t Tustin Ranch and the new Columbus developments in Tustin just as nice as anything Irvine has to offer?  Do you think the households purchasing in 92782 will have schools performing poorly as compared to any Irvine zip?

Interesting…so then it seems like this asking price is way out of line with the market. Even more so considering the overall market has only declined since these past sales.

Then again, this place is “one-of-a-kind”!

There maybe some historical reason for the name.  East Irvine, for example, is near Sand Canyon and I-5, and it used to be the “town” of Irvine.  My guess is that the land west of the Irvine’s old town can be call West Irvine.  So technically, they don’t need a new compass for the naming it West Irvine.

The Tustin schools serving Tustin Ranch, West Irvine, and Northpark are just as good as Irvine schools.  Some realtor told this person that their kids would become crack dealers if they did not attend Irvine schools, and they believed them.

Could that eyesore of a light be in the garage?  Even so, why on God’s green earth would they so prominently feature that thing?

Six opportunities to show off the best features of your house and THAT’S included?  Really?

Inflation?

My wife got a 4% raise next year for doing the same task as last year, with absolutely no increase in productivity.  When a bottle of water is $20 at the 7-eleven, a million dollar 3 bedrooms house will be a bargain.

Not sure if any caught this but when I checked ziprealty.com, the seller raised the price to $920k.  If I were them, I would rather take the house off the market than raise the price back up after several reductions.  Situation may not permit but it tells me that the sellers are either not well informed, or too emotional…

east of the 5 is east of the 5.
in just about every part of california, that only means one thing.

OCMAN,

The house is range priced, i.e. they have the list price ranged from $899-920K.  Redfin always picks up the low side of range.  Many other sites, such as ziprealty and homeseekers pick up the high-end of the range.  Homeseekers shows it @ $920K as well.

I believe there is a list price high and low and also a search price high and low.  Realtors can range on both…  While they are supposed to take low end of range if they list it, they use this as a tool to generate hits on the engines.  Even though they likely won’t take $899K right now if offered, they wanted people searching up to a limit of $900K to see the property.

Too bad you can’t walk two-by-two into the backyard.  How do you cut the grass without getting wet first?

This price isn’t that out of line with market, maybe $50-75K over what it should go for today

Recent sales I think are most comparable:

46 Meadow Glen:  2200sf SFR right on the other side of Robinson.  Ivywood development.  Sold for $780K on 10/16, probably going for $760Kish now if there was one on the market.  Lot was not nearly as big or nice, but did have better curb appeal and good culdy location.  Meadow Glen was one less bedroom (although it did have a loft/bonus) and one less room downstairs though.  Also 2.5 bath.

31 Willowhurst:  11/1 close date on 1,800sf for $700K even.  A nice little 3/2.5 SFR without a loft/bonus.  Smallish yard but further away from Robinson and Jamboree.  Buyers at Willowhurst used to live in West Irvine, moved out of state years ago, and recently moved back.  Evidently they loved the neighborhood and elementary school (Myford - TUSD).

Neither of the above was heavily upgraded.  Based on those prices, I figure this place on Pollena, given a healthy lot premium for the big backyard, was worth around $850-875K or so back in September when they were at $999K.  Probably down another 3-5% since then for a current market of $825K or so.  They are at least closing the gap on their WTF pricing!

LOL Maestro, I wondered the same thing when I visited the open house.  The answer - you keep your mower behind the little wall that blocks off the pool equipment from view.

I love it !  A contest !  But since I already have an IHB T-Shirt, I will gladly donate mine (if I win) to Lawrence Yun.

“Sale” will be it going back to the bank in July of ‘08.

Next sale will be in Feb of ‘09 for 580K.

What time please?

(1) There are a LOT of condos and apartments in Irvine.  The meaningful number here is the average income for people that have mortages ON SFHs ONLY…

(2) Why do you think that an income of 100K a year ENTITLES you to live in this house?  Your comment that 100K SHOULD be enough is ludicrous.  By that comment, a 200K income SHOULD be enough for Newport Beach…. etc.  People will pay what the market will bear.

(3) 1MIL for this home in 05 was over the top.  The location is half way to Phoenix for crying out loud.  These folks should have traveled closer to the ocean and checked out other neighborhoods.  They overpaid big time.  What the hell where they thinking about anyhow?

(4) The code calls for 12 feet.  If you don’t like it, then you don’t have to live in SoCal.  That’s the code everywhere.

The particular schools that serve this serve are just as good or better than a number of Irvine schools.  Myford is a Distinguished school, Pioneer rates out better than almost every IUSD junior high, and Beckman mediocre but getting better..

Please stop quoting the median income.  You are misusing statistics.

Go figure out the median type of residence in Irvine and you’ll find out it’s not a Single Family Home.

Also, there are a lot of retired folks in the older villages and they do not need much income because their homes are paid off.

Yeah….

So let’s call Turtle Rock the Upper Irvine… in fact, let’s chagne the name to

Turtle Rocke… that ‘e’ just raised my price like 20%

And the “Upper” just told off all of you guys living in the Eastern Flats…. 

My new bumper sticker:  “There’s no life East of University Drive”. 

Moreno Valley.  :-D

That sticker would be especially hilarious considering University runs pretty much East/West.

LOL!  That’s funny b/c it’s true!

I suggest you read the book.

warm regards

bob

for all the bulls here, this house will go back to the 2002 price, like or not.  :mrgreen:

There is not a person on earth that would buy this house right now, including Santa Claus. They can set whatever imaginary price they want, because they are not getting the Lexus either. Nobody buys houses around the holidays, nor do they buy Lexii.

Hi Tonye -

I most definitely did not mean to imply that 100K per year entitles anybody to anything.  The point that I was trying to make is that this house is nice, but nothing so special or ritzy as to comfortably house a family with a household income of 100K per year.

That being the case, you would think that the house would be priced to be affordable by people in that price range - don’t you think?

The other point is that it seems as though a lot of people are over-extending themselves financially to get into these houses.

Are you saying that California has laws that say all houses must be exactly 12 feet apart from each other?  That sounds a little strange, but I do not live in CA so I will have to take your word for it.  Are you sure that 12 feet means that they cannot be any closer than 12 feet rather than MUST be 12 feet?

Tonye -

I don’t understand why you think that median income has no relevance.  Isn’t it a little bit of a stretch to assume that most of the people who own houses in Irvine are older people who have them all paid off?

Even if that is the case, isn’t it more likely that these older people bought the houses before the bubble inflated (back when they were affordable)?

They may feel it will sell at this price because #11 across the street with the smaller back yard is the same price.  I guess they didn’t notice that #11 has been on the market 300+ days.

The 12 foot distance is the MINIMUM distance between houses.

Many SFH will split the difference and put a wall in between.

Others, like mine, push the property to the line and give you a 3 foot easement over the wall for maintenance.  That sound kludgey at first but it does give you a nice 12 foot side yard.

In our case, the property line wall is on the north side and we have a large atrium (12 by 22).  Obviously you can not have windows on that wall but the atrium gives a very nice patio with sliding doors and windows into it.  Our 12 foot side yard is on the south side and since the 2nd stories are offset we get a lot of sunshine.

Oh, most of the homes in my area are single story too. 

As far as overextending.  Yes.  But I think that has been the case everywhere.  In Phoenix, for example, this is the second time in the last 20 year where the bubble was extreme.  When you think about it, the level of speculation in Phoenix and Las Vegas was much higher than in SoCal.  Mostly because the price of entry was lower ( assuming a down payment, that is).

Another thing to remember is that 100K is NOT upper middle class in SoCal.  In the nicer areas it puts you squarely in the lower middle class.

Yes.  But the people who bought those homes and are retired are also included in the median price.

Or, take people like me who bought back in 87.  I make far more than the median ( OK I did rebuild the house but I have a reasonable mortgage ).

As I noted, the median income is really not a good statistic in a heterogeneous population.  If you could quote the median price for the people who bought homes in the new developments or who bought a house anywhere in the last four years, then that would be a good statistic.

OK.. call it “Universite Boulevarde”... There!  Voila!  All of Universite Parke is not worth 10% more.

Besides…..  University Boulevarde runs SE to NW.. huh? 

I think we should have moats guarding the entrances to “La Rocke de la Turtle” too.  Something like l’Arc de Triumphe they put up at PCH on the entrace to Newport Coast.

That should really make Turtle Ridgeroo really green with envy.

Such an Arc would really tell people that Turtle Rocke is truly a destination, not just a way of living.

Cool… just add 20% to my property values… :-D   Just make sure my HOA dues don’t go up…

Methinks you might want to look at a map tonye:

http://maps.google.com/?ie=UTF8&ll=33.65378,-117.829742&spn=0.045939,0.079823&z=14&om=1

University Boulevarde, from Harvard to Strawberry Farms, is almost a perfect East/West ride.  It runs in a slight northeasterly direction away from Jamboree.  I think that puts it running SW to NE.

Jeez… I didn’t expect the Inquisition.

It’s all approximate, eh?  After all, if they can call something West Irvine that it’s actually East, and if they can sell apartments like these as if they were condos priced as if they were houses…  Who’s to complain about this.

The general idea is that the 405 generally is a North/South interstate.  That’s why it’s a “x5’ designation.  If it were a East/West it would be a 10/20/30…...