The Skinny on the Housing Crisis

Nov 28th, 2008  
by IrvineRenter  in

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-11-28 07:10 AM

Happy Thanksgiving, IHB. 

Astute Observation by Alan
2008-11-28 07:12 AM

It will be very interesting to see what this actually sells for, because it looks like a decent but very middle class house. I thought that $300k was about right ... then noted that this was the 1999 price, not current asking. Of course in most of the rest of the country it would be a $200k house if it had more land around it, but there can be some California and Irvine premium. I’m glad that right now I can comfortably sit and watch (and learn).

Astute Observation by mmg
2008-11-28 11:31 AM

actually sounds underpriced at 839k, I think I will offer over asking   LOL

Astute Observation by Walter
2008-11-28 02:21 PM

Stopped by a good friends place for Thanksgiving desert. The friend’s wife’s dad is a RE agent. Told him I am waiting to buy because prices will most likely fall further.

He said I am out of my mind and in fact I should not wait. I pointed out waiting has served me well the last 2 years. His response: buying a year or two ago would have been fine because of all the money I would save on rent and with the tax write off the government would be paying for the house.

At that point I stopped talking. I did not know how to respond.

Astute Observation by alan
2008-11-28 02:36 PM

Yes, the level of residual denial still amazes me also.

Give him another year, when the winds of recession really blow through they should blow away the last of the deniers.

Astute Observation by MalibuRenter
2008-11-28 05:15 PM

If you are feeling adventurous, here is how to find out if you are dealing with a promoter, or someone who actually believes what they are saying.

Ask “So, would you like to make a friendly wager?  How about $100 on whether the Case-Shiller index is higher or lower 12 months from now?”

Regarding whether you are better or worse off renting for the past two years, point him to http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/timing-does-matter/ and ask him to show you where the logical errors are.  Alternatively, ask him to show you an actual calculation of what he asserts.  I watched several RE agents grind to a halt on this one.  They had talking points but no math.

Astute Observation by Walter
2008-12-01 09:51 AM

Thought about pushing the issue with some comments along those lines, but getting into it with my hosts father would not have done much for the holiday spirit so I clammed up.

Astute Observation by Woodbury Renter
2008-11-28 02:35 PM

Walter, I feel your pain.  I have learned in social settings that in Irvine discussing real estate is as difficult a topic as religion and politics.  I just steer very, very clear.

Astute Observation by granite
2008-11-30 07:40 AM

I just leased a house in a very nice Northwood neighborhood. The neighbors are very freindly and when I met them I only said that “someday” I may buy the house. The idea being that I am an “almost homeowner”.

Of course I have no intention of buying at current prices (~$600K). But since that would be saying their houses aren’t worth what they think they are, I change the subject to football.

Astute Observation by LC
2008-11-28 05:06 PM

Lot Size: 4,628 Sq. Ft.

People still cannot see how crazy it is asking $839,000.

Astute Observation by h
2008-11-28 06:18 PM

The Zillow comps are all in the mid 600’s.  Price seems quite high based on that.

Astute Observation by MightyAlweg
2008-11-28 07:57 PM

Am I the only one who noticed they turned their front living room into a billiards room?! At first I thought that room was an extra room with a side entrance or something, but looking at the front elevation of the house and the view out the window, it’s now clear that the “billiards room” is actually the home’s living room!

How on earth do people show this setup with a straight face? Can you imagine walking in at the open house and finding the 1990’s pool table setup in the front room? How very, very odd.

Astute Observation by Sean
2008-11-28 09:01 PM

These prices make me sad.  I make about the same money I did in 1998 as an IT consultant.  Indian labor has pushed rates down and just last week I found out my IT consulting contract will end in December.

So when I look at this home for $839K I wonder who is able to afford this home?  Most people I know make about 100K year, maybe a little more.  How do you afford a ~$5000 month payment?  Where does the money come from?  I am being serious?

This is not a middle class home that people can afford on the average wage in OC.  $300K is about right, maybe $350K.

That’s why I find this sad.  If homes were priced correctly (CHEAPER) then more people could afford them and we could enjoy and spend the left over money on other things in life. (Food, family, friends.)

Astute Observation by Seamus
2008-11-30 03:08 PM

I am wondering the same thing.  My wife and I make 180k between us and can’t imagine having a mortgage over $3800/month.  We fund our own retirement and have 1 $300/month car loan. Those are the only debts we have.  HOW MUCH ARE PEOPLE MAKING?

Astute Observation by newbie
2008-11-30 04:25 PM

$85000 medium household income for Irvine.  Say $100000 for those looking to buy.
8830000 saking 8.3 x yearly income.

Any way you slice it, after the monthly payments, there’s almost nothing left for anything else.

Astute Observation by Ana
2008-11-30 10:35 PM

I have been reading this blog for about a year now (and renting) but am interested in buying in Irvine at the end of 2009.  Does anyone have recs on good realtors just to check out whats out there.  It seems tough to try and find open houses and we dont know the various areas of Irvine well.

Astute Observation by Laguna NiguelRenter
2008-12-01 12:48 AM

While waiting to pick up a repaired camera about a year ago, I got into a conversation with a realtor. We were in total agreement over the state of the real estate market.  The only realtor I’ve talked to who didn’t give out the NAR line. I sure am going to give her a shot at my purchase ......when the time comes. Her website is http://www.socestates.com/

Astute Observation by Bitter Renter
2008-12-02 02:27 AM

Wow, Dee Dee McGann-Gollwitzer—that’s quite a name.  Why doesn’t she throw her middle name in there too?  tongue wink Anyhow, thanks for the recommendation, LNR—here’s hoping she’s equally honest when she’s got a commission at stake.

Ana, there are some realtors that frequent the site that seem to “get it”, including IrvineRealtor (http://www.camoves.com/scott.gunther), who ipoplaya had a good experience selling a house with.

Astute Observation by Sue
2008-12-04 12:50 AM

I noticed the price dropped to 800k.

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