Login
Subscribe
Recent Comments
- zovall on A Review of The Field Tract at Lambert Ranch
- Lee Campbell on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Kelja on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Sylvia Walker on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Casual Observer on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Astute As It Comes on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Darin on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
- Casual Observer on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
Recent Posts
- A Review of The Field Tract at Lambert Ranch
- Open House Review: 34 Redwood Tree Lane
- Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Closed Sales from 5/10/2012-5/16/2012
- Open House Review: 52 Secret Garden
- Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Paired Living with Privacy in Woodbridge
- Beige Ruth Sisters
- Closed Sales from 5/3/2012 to 5/9/2012
- Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
Categories
Archives
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- Rest of archives
Browse Homes
Irvine Homes
- Airport Area Homes
- El Camino Real Homes
- Northpark Homes
- Northwood Homes
- Oak Creek Homes
- Orangetree Homes
- Portola Springs Homes
- Quaill Hill Homes
- Rancho San Joaquin Homes
- Turtle Ridge Homes
- Turtle Rock Homes
- University Park
- University Town Center Homes
- West Irvine Homes
- Westpark Homes
- Woodbridge Homes
- Woodbury Homes
Newport Beach Homes
- Newport Coast Homes
- Crystal Cove Homes
- Corona Del Mar / Spyglass
- East Bluff / Harbor View Homes
- Lower Newport Bay / Balboa Island
- Balboa Peninsula Homes
- West Bay / Santa Ana Heights
- West Newport / Lido Homes
Other Cities
- Aliso Viejo Homes
- Anaheim Hills Homes
- Brea Homes
- Costa Mesa Homes
- Coto de Caza Homes
- Dana Point Homes
- Huntington Beach Homes
- Ladera Ranch Homes
- Laguna Beach Homes
- Laguna Hills Homes
- Laguna Niguel Homes
- Lake Forest Homes
- Mission Viejo Homes
- Orange Homes
- Rancho Santa Margarita Homes
- San Clemente Homes
- San Juan Capistrano Homes
- Santa Ana Homes
- Tustin Homes
- Villa Park Homes
- Yorba Linda Homes
Contact
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Foreclosures
Housing
- Talk Irvine
- IHB Forum Archive
- OC Housing News
- Coto Housing Blog
- Housing Kaboom
- Patrick.net
- Housing Chronicles
- Housing Doom
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Manhattan Beach Confidential
- Burbed
- SoCal RE Bubble Crash
- Professor Piggington
- Real C'ville
- Westside Bubble
- Bubble Meter
- Portland Housing Blog
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- OC Register Blog
Econ/Finance/Other
- Calculated Risk
- The Big Picture
- Economist's View
- Mish's Blog
- Matrix
- Bakers' Stock
- ML-Implode
- Eschaton
- Best Mortgage Rates
- Crackerjack Finance
Latest REOs
- $199,900 :: 3125 Watermarke Pl, Irvine CA, 92612
- $349,900 :: 10 Greenleaf 16, Irvine CA, 92604
- $439,900 :: 61 Olivehurst, Irvine CA, 92602
- $889,900 :: 14 Upland, Irvine CA, 92602
- $429,900 :: 56 Great Lawn, Irvine CA, 92620
- $465,000 :: 212 Garden Gate Ln, Irvine CA, 92620
- $329,000 :: 1006 Terra Bella, Irvine CA, 92602
- $579,900 :: 8 Star Thistle, Irvine CA, 92604
- $750,000 :: 69 Lakeview 6, Irvine CA, 92604
- $499,900 :: 84 Deermont 51, Irvine CA, 92602
“The CEOs and the other top executives at Fannie and Freddie get all their pay in cash, and none of it in company stock, which is generally deemed worthless.”
“The latest cost estimate from FHFA is that the two bailouts will end up with a net cost to taxpayers of about $124 billion through 2014, though that figure could rise as high as $193 billion. Even the lower cost estimate will make it the most expensive bailout of the financial crisis—far more costly than bailing out the nation’s banks or automakers.”
Fannie, Freddie execs score $100 million payday
So those tools get $100 million, and the taxpayer gets a giant middle finger.
A commentator on NBR tonite said FHA is deliberately underestimating liabilities by $50 billion.
Not sure exactly why, since the FHA burned through $37 billion in the past 3 years and is officially undercapitalized by 8x, although politicians globally are just trying “to kick the can down the road.”
NYT: F.H.A. Audit Sees Possible Bailout Need
What’s the deal with needing a Facebook account to download things or to post comments. I am seeing this more and more.
What kind of man worth his salt actually uses Facebook? It is for kids and narcissistic (usually both) and one of the worst companies out there besides Citi and BofA.
(Yes, I know you can download the report by signing up for Scrib)
My sentiments exactly. If I were single and trolling for “love” from my old junior high, high school, and college flames, I might be on Facebook. But I’m an adult who doesn’t care what you did with your kids today, or what you had for dinner, or that your daughter’s soccer team won…
“It will be quite a long time for people who bought right at the peak to gain recovery,” he said.
Depending on where you bought, prices might not come back to peak levels in our lifetimes!
When I look at some of the houses in Las Vegas that are 70% below the peak, I can’t help but think the peak buyers will never, ever see equity again.
Housing in Vegas will eventually reach their peaks via decades of inflation. But it won’t be the same houses. 30 years from now the cheaply built bubble houses will have needed a complete overhaul or they will be slum houses.
They will never regain their peak in inflation adjusted terms.
Even with the lowest mortgage rates ever, the Orange County median price per DataQuick is trending down.
Per the OC Register J. Lansner ...
“DataQuick reports that the Orange County median selling price for all residences in October was $405,000, down 7.5% vs. a year ago. It’s lowest of any month since April 2009 — and lowest since 2002 for any October. It’s also the fastest rate of decline since April 2009. The price is now $240,000 off its 2007 peak.”
“Sales ran 8% below the latest 5-year average sales pace. (Scary number: Sales run 43% below the average pace from 1988-2006!)”
It’s quite clear that the only way back to a healthy/normal real estate market, is lower prices. Local prices are eventually going to pre Y2K levels. The only thing that can prevent this is rapid inflation ... not happening.
The market is very weak, particularly when you factor in the seasonal downturn. With BofA ramping up foreclosures, I don’t see much hope for a robust spring rally either. Affordability is already good, and it should continue to improve. The low prices and high affordability will get people to start buying, but it’s all a matte of how much overhead supply we have to absorb.
“Low prices”?? LMFAO, these aren’t low prices IR. And you say you don’t have an agenda to get people to buy?
Think what you want, Don. I could care less if people buy or rent. People now have a reason to buy that they didn’t have before, and it’s a reason I have been describing for five years now. The data on affordability speaks for itself. Prices are lower then they were at the peak by 30%, and they will likely go lower despite the relative affordability. There is no urgency to buy, but there is one less reason to rent than there used to be.
I don’t put too much weight on median prices, but clearly the trend is down and going down further. I follow a few pockets of HB closely and we are starting to see capitulation there. I remember two or three years ago, almost nothing was under 500K, now we are seeing plenty of places in the low 400K range. Soon we will be seeing places with a 3 handle.
I fully expect prices to drop about 5% per year for the next 2 years. Assuming rates will still be low, that might be the time to jump in when loan owners are experiencing MAX pain. Additionally, when factoring in all the distressed properties that need to work through the system, there is no hurry to buy now if you don’t have to.
Remember, the borrower always wants rates to stay low but it is the creditor who dictates rates. Look at greece and italy and how quickly the debt problem goes from “contained” to “past the point of no return”. I may be wrong, but i dont think we have 2 years of low rates left.
Higher rates are going to hurt affordability and put severe downward pressure on prices.
dataquick: southland home sales report
71% drop.
crazy!
curious to know what effect it had on lowering the number of sales or prices, as opposed to people just finding ways to avoid taking out loans higher than $625k either thru 2nd loans or bigger down payments
“transactions in the $300,000 to $800,000 range fell 6.7 percent year-over-year and sales above $800,000 declined 22.0 percent from a year earlier (and dropped 29.4 percent from September). Viewed differently, the number of Southland deals over $500,000 fell 18.1 percent from a year ago.”
seems like it had some effect but not quite as drastic as 71% drop though. I expect a full upcoming report and analysis from IHB on this topic!
HARP2 Guidelines released today by Fannie Mae:
https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/mha/mharefi/pdf/refinancefaqs.pdf
http://www.youtube.com/user/9250307107
here is the Schiff UCI Barclay Theater Presentation IrvineRenter
We are watching the very beginning of the bursting of the treasury bubble in real-time
IR, I found your breakdown of rental parity and assumptions (earlier post and newsletter) to be very helpful in my own decisions about buying or continuing to rent. Looks like I’ll be saving a little longer than I thought, but I’ll be in a better situation if circumstances ever forced a need to rent out the place.
Perhaps a bit from Shevy on how he sees things playing out on the front line could be a nice addition to the newsletter? I always enjoy his observations.