Irvine Housing Blog

Sales in Riverside declined 23.7% yoy.  Prices will soon follow.  Ouch!

The other thing impacting how prices have changed recently in one city vs another is how far they fell.  Sure San Diego is up 9% from this point 2009, but it is still 34% off peak, while Charlotte, while down 3% from 2009, is only down 14% from peak.  Note how they put Tampa with Charlotte - Tampa is down 42% from peak.

Also, the ability for foreclosures coming on the market to cause price declines is dependent on the foreclosure rate in an area, which is very geographically dependent.  New foreclosure actions in CA are 1/178 units, while in NC it is only 1/984.  This points to continued declines in the bubble regions.

This is also a problem because every state has similar legal throughput capability for foreclosures, so the high foreclosure areas are swamped, and were also the areas with the weakest underwriting, either related to capacity to pay or collateral.

START TO LIVE THE ORANGE COUNTY LIFESTYLE TODAY

Which part of the OC lifestyle, the $3,052 Monthly payment (for a 2BR)?

WHY ARE YOU SHOUTING AT ME?

They aint making anymore land!!!!!!!!

Buy NOW, and get priced IN FOREVER.

I cant phathom how many marriages/relationships have been totally destroyed (or in the process of being destroyed) over this housing mess…

Everyone working needs to get a 50% raise, and the Gov can’t figure out how to do it.

That’s where we are.

The real truth.

$500k for a 2BR??? WTF

“...Home price appreciation is not the great deal everyone thinks it is…”

True, but this cuts both ways, no?  Home price depreciation isn’t the horrible thing people think it is. 

If you financed < 2.5x your income to purchase a home and stuck to traditional standards and terms, it’s not too big a deal when you hear that your neigbor’s home sold for 10% less last week.

Unfortunately, the conservative people are being screwed by their profligate neighbors. Always the way…

Interestingly, the whole foreclosure HELOC mess doesn’t seem to have hurt the IUSD scores at all - in fact they went up. Higher than Palos Verdes now.

IUSD posts an API score of 916, moves to the top of the list of state’s large school districts
http://newsflash.iusd.org/2010/09/iusd-posts-an-api-score-of-916-moves-to-the-top-of-the-list-of-states-large-school-districts/

If you look at the other top district (San Ramon Valley Unified near San Francisco) in Redfin, the house prices look just as elevated as Irvine
http://www.redfin.com/search#!lat=37.81265702510516&long=-121.99171140511459&market=sanfrancisco&region_id=39176&region_type=2&sf=1,2&uipt=3,2,1&v=6&zoomLevel=15

I guess you get what you pay for.

I’m still, after all these years, unbelieving that anyone can think the “way below comp” price of $500k for this 2br with dirty carpets and pergo, where you don’t own the land individually, is a deal.

If you make $100k, you are probably taking home $5k/month.  Then you pay your $2800 plus a $200 hoa/month (that may go up as more co-residents default) for the privilege of going up and down three flights?

its going to be irrational longer than I care to wait.

The typical “blame the homeowner” BS that the banks are pushing and you spout in your post ignores the fact that a significant number of people who have been foreclosed on have been victims of outright fraud from the banks.

See http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/10/mortgage_foreclosure_uproar_sw.html

The banks have royally f-upped the system in their pursuit of enriching themselves and screwing over the rest of the country.  Not sure how letting them steal property they don’t own will fix the problem.

“The owners refinanced their first mortgage for $562,500 on 6/15/2007. They only took out $6,500 which probably covered their origination fees plus gave them a few dollars. The refinance cost them their non-recourse protections. When the bank finally disposes of the REO, they may go after this couple for the shortfall. The previous owners already lost $139,000 and their good credit, and later the bank may come back for another pound of flesh.”

I thought the one-action rule would still protect these people despite losing the purchase money protection?

Irvine renter,

how do you expect the price in 2011, 2012,2013 and so on?

I saw your prediction was pretty close in 2007. As everyone talking about inflation, will that make the home price much higher if we have 10% inflation per year?

“When some of these properties close, the comps are going to be crushed”

But are these sales going to be included in the comps??

(I have heard on various blogs that more and more categories of forced sales are being excluded from the calculations.)

Irvine Renter, I want to e-mail you something, but can’t view your profile. Got an addy?

Tyler Durden reports news in the linked Zero Hedge article that Fitch Places Bank Of America, All US Banks On Rating Watch Negative. 

I believe that the Financial Regulator, that is the Secretary of the US Treasury, as having broad discretionary authority under the Dodd-Frank Legislation, will one day soon, call for leasing of REO and shadow inventory properties as a solution to the large number of people living payment free in mortgaged property, and as a banking quagmire and deflationary economic collapse emerges.

Furthermore, I see the day coming very soon where a liquidity crisis will occur in the stock and bond markets, and then soon thereafter the US Government will be the sole provider of credit to America; and that credit will be primarily for the strategic needs of the North American Governments, including Canada and Mexico.

“All the nonsense about improper foreclosures seems to miss one basic point: the people being foreclosed on are not paying their mortgage.”

No, imho the basic point is that only the REAL owner of the mortgage has the legal right to foreclosure! Those banks who fraudulently foreclosure homes STEAL the property from the real owners. There’s no way to ethically defend this. That some house owners now exploit the illegal shortcuts taken by the banks as a way for delaying their eviction even longer is morally questionable, too, of course. But this still doesn’t justify the behaviour of the banks. There are lots of crooks on both sides, that’s the issue. And who’s gonna tell which side has the more dirty hands?