The Grand Illusion

Aug 24th, 2007   by IrvineRenter  in Rollback Flips

Styx The Grand IllusionSo if you think your life is complete confusion
Because your neighbors got it made
Just remember that it's a Grand illusion
And deep inside we're all the same.
We're all the same...

The Grand Illusion -- Styx

Link to Music Video

I find pretense very distasteful. There is a large subculture in Southern California that expends a great deal of money and energy trying to make other people think they are happy and successful. It is an illusion they cultivate within themselves.

Status is an internal perception about what people believe other people think about them. It has nothing to do with what other people actually do think about them (as if that mattered anyway).

For instance, I think the women on the Real Housewives of Orange County are soulless, gold-digging slags. My derision is only eclipsed by my disrespect for the way they live, what they believe, and what they represent. However, they think I, and everyone else who knows them through the show, believes they are something special, something to envy as if they really have it "going on." They have status. Not because people regard them highly, but because they think people do. But I digress...

For people who don't have the internal strength to base their self worth on what they believe about themselves, they end up basing their self worth on their perceptions of what other people think about them. Once they have given their power away to others in this manner, people will expend tremendous amounts of time, energy and money in a vain attempt to influence other people -- hence we have fancy cars, opulent houses, designer clothing, and all the other trappings of conspicuous consumption. In my opinion, this is a sickness (their mind control fails on me.) It is a consuming disease which fed on the borrowed money made available during the housing/credit bubble.
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Southern California's prosperity over the last 7 years has been The Grand Illusion. Our entire economy has been built on borrowed money; our collective self worth has been built on borrowed money. As the credit crunch takes hold and our economy contracts, it will not just be difficult on people financially, it will also be difficult on them emotionally because many people will be forced to abandon their illusions of wealth, prosperity and happiness. One day with their vanity stripped from them, some of the most pretentious will look in the mirror and see how pathetic and insecure they really are.

14222 Matisse

Asking Price: $624,900IrvineRenter

Purchase Price: $572,040

Purchase Date: 5/29/2007

Address: 14222 Matisse Avenue, Irvine, CA 92606

Sales History
Date Price
05/29/2007 $572,040
03/11/2004 $535,000Matisse 1
04/18/2003 $410,500
06/07/1990 $231,000

Beds: 3
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,381
$/Sq. Ft.: $452
Lot Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
Year Built: 1974
Stories: 1
Type: Single Family Residence
County: Orange
Neighborhood: Walnut
MLS#: U7003278
Status: Active
On Redfin: 39 days

From Redfin, "THREE BEDROOM TWO BATH HOME IN THE SOUGHT TRACT OF 'THE COLONY' THIS HOME IS IN ONE OF THE VERY BEST CITIES IN ORANGE COUNTY, IRVINE!! GREAT SCHOOLS, PARKS, CLOSE TO ENTERTAINMENT, TRANSPORTATION AND ALL THE GOOD STUFF. ASSOCIATION POOL AND MORE. THIS HOME IS BEING SOLD 'AS-IS' AND 'WHERE-IS' WITHOUT WARRANTY. COME HOME TO IRVINE TODAY AND START LIVING THE 'O. C. ' LIFESTYLE TODAY!"

Even the banks seem to have a CAPS LOCK problem.

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As you have probably noticed, we are starting to see an increased activity among banks to liquidate their REOs. Unfortunately, they are getting them faster than they are selling them. This is a trend that will likely continue.Matisse 2

Think back to the mass delusion that was the bubble: it was the Grand Illusion. People accepted the absurd as unquestioned truth. Does it seem reasonable that banks would continually offer negative amortization loans with 1% teaser rates; that it would be possible to refinance from one to another as each teaser rate period expired? Is it logical to think serial refinancing could go on forever? I had people tell me this was the new paradigm.

Is it logical to think that real estate can only go up in value? Do you remember the thought experiment in this post: How Sub-Prime Lending Created the Housing Bubble? Does it make sense that you could live off the appreciation of your house; that none of us would actually have to produce anything; that all we would have to do is own real estate to make a living? How can such silly beliefs make it into our collective consciousness? Are we so enamored with our fantasies of wealth that common sense can be ignored?

I don't have any answers for you. I never did drink the kool aid, so I cannot fully empathize with this system of belief. Each of you that suffered from these delusions, even for a brief time, will have to answer those questions for yourself.
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You will have to pardon my ranting and sermonizing today. Sometimes the insanity of it all builds up inside of me until it finds an outlet -- generally on this blog. Remember, I still have my Reservoir of Schadenfreude I am trying to empty.

This concludes another week at the Irvine Housing Blog. My motivation is strong, and my energy level is high, so I will keep on keeping on. I hope you come back next week as we continue to Chronicle ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.

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The artwork was by Henri Mattise as a reference to the street name. I don't know who designed the cover of the Styx album, but the similarities in styles was an interesting coincidence.

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Scott
2007-09-19 01:34 PM

The illusion is explained in a forthcoming movie.  It is not Kool Aid.  In “Nightmare City 2035” it is a chip implanted in the brain.  I think the director already sold his house. 

I do hope somebody like Ron Paul will get inflation under control.

Astute Observation by Laguna Hills
2007-08-30 08:01 AM

There’s some truth to your buffer theory.

A few years ago I started a new job in Laguna Hills.  At lunch I was heading out the door and a coworker asked where I was going.  I told her I always go outside for lunch because I need fresh air.  She told me she never leaves the office because it’s too dangerous to drive in the area.  She said, “first there’s all of the old people who can’t see anymore and then there are the Asians who never could see”.

Astute Observation by Quix
2007-08-30 05:37 AM

Many of us consider “stay at home mothering” anything but “wasting one’s life.“  It’s certainly far more valuable than spreadsheet-wrangling in a cubicle in some generic office park somewhere, and it was a big part of my reason to move back to Utah: so my wife could stay home with the kids.

But the South O.C. version of “stay at home mothering” is loading your kids up in the Denali and going to the mall, where you can have lattes and do a little shopping with your “stay at home mom” friends while the kids play in the fountain.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-30 05:31 AM

The UCI kids will be 50% asian and drive riced Civics and Integras (UCI = Univeristy of Civics and Integras).  Their IQs and SAT scores will be in the top 0.001%.

The Santa Ana folks will be latino kids appearing in a cameo role during the obligatory drive by shooting scene.  Their rides will most likely be a mid 90s Accord or some late model SUV.  Their average rate of fire, that is how many bullets they can fire in a minute, will be higher than the average IQ of the UCI kids.

None of them will have fake tits.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-30 05:25 AM

Hey….I’ll grant you that Aliso Viejo and Laguna Niguel are scary places.  It’s like White Yuppie Ville…. Homes and homes with kitchen pantries filled with White Wonder Bread, Creamy Peanut Butter…. dens with Bose Stereos, garages with SUVs, college degreed moms waisting their lives as stay at home mommies…. 

As I said, those areas are scary.

But, as this is an Irvine blog, this city is different.  Here we have college trained Chinese stay at home moms… wink

Seriously though.  The Vapidity Index is much higher in AV/LH.

My only hope is that the old folks in the retirement communities will provide soime kind of a buffer by running into as many cars as they can so that the northward traffic will be somewhat hampered.

Astute Observation by Hispanic
2007-08-29 03:51 PM

Please post Mexican anthem also on your blog.  The illegal immigrants of Inland Empire who are getting cash advances for their 100% financed homes and walking away and those who committed mortgage fraud would like to see to keep up with their spirits.

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-27 06:24 PM

OC auto sales down 10.2% in July

http://ocbiz.freedomblogging.com/2007/08/27/oc-auto-sales-down-102-in-july/

Astute Observation by k.o.
2007-08-27 02:11 PM

When did tonye become Dwight Schrute from “The Office”?

Astute Observation by Quix
2007-08-27 11:47 AM

“just a dose of reality for those of you who insist that every housewife in OC has fake t*ts and every car has 20 inch chrome rings.“

*Every*???  Hmm, I don’t see anyone making that assertion.  But OC certainly epitomizes that culture.  And your claim that everywhere else is just like OC in that regard is just plain laughable.  And in some areas where you do see a lot of it - Vegas, Phoenix, etc. - guess where a lot of those people came from?  Yep, SoCal.

Some cities have certain neighborhoods full of pretentious phonies, but OC has entire *cities* full.

And when someone equates OC with materialism, they’re generally referring to South County and not an older neighborhood in Buena Park.

Sadly I did live in Aliso Viejo/Laguna Niguel, surrounded by the worst of the worst when it comes to worldly stupidity.  And I know there are plenty of good people in OC - it’s just hard to see them with so many poseurs in the way.  When I started to become physically agitated every time I saw another silicone-enhanced bimbo in her chromed-out Escalade yakking on her cell phone, I knew it was time to make my escape.  The rational human soul can only stomach so much superficiality.

Here’s hoping a hearty real estate crash purges the area of some of those people - I’d love a humble little cottage in Dana Point with the ocean breezes through my bedroom window someday.

The Culture of Me that SoCal is famous for is hardly imagined or fabricated by bitter outsiders…

Astute Observation by Housewives Fan
2007-08-27 11:46 AM

I forgot to say, Real Housewives of Orange County is so much better than the other OC programs on MTV especially the new one Newport Harbor - the Real Orange County.  I’m waiting for them to make a show about the real orange county with cast members from Santa Ana or UCI.

Astute Observation by Housewives Fan
2007-08-27 11:43 AM

I love the Real Housewives of O.C.  That has to be the best TV show out there.  Kudos to Bravo to finally accurately depict this county.  However, I’m worried about the next season and I hope Bravo continues to follow these women through this difficult time in our county’s history

I remember Jo got her “dream job” as a loan officer at Countrywide.  I guess it’s safe to say she’s probably no longer working there. 

I think Tammy was also a loan officer

Slade owned a Title company.  I wonder what happened to him. 

Gina was a real estate agent.  I wonder how many homes she’s sold recently in Coto.

George was a land developer.  Do you think he’s doing much developing now?  Will Lauri dump him if he isn’t bringing in the 7 figure income?

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-27 11:03 AM

I guess your OC is different from my OC.

But I bought a house in an established neighborhood with old folks back 20 years ago.  My experience was not from Laguna Niguel, Fashion island or TV.

Desperately?  hardly, just a dose of reality for those of you who insist that every housewife in OC has fake tits and every car has 20 inch chrome rings.

Please…. folks… get a dose of reality next time.

Astute Observation by Quix
2007-08-27 06:48 AM

“I find pretense very distasteful. There is a large subculture in Southern California that expends a great deal of money and energy trying to make other people think they are happy and successful.“

Amen, brother.  Which is why I fled back home to Utah in 2003 after 9 years in the O.C.  Yes, as Tonye so desperately argues, materialism is everywhere, but no one does it like they do in the O.C.  Tonye is simply suffering from a little malady we call “denial.“

In other places, you find some materialistic people here and there.  In the O.C., you find some non-materialistic people here and there.  It’s a place where the content of your character is measured by the size of your chrome rims (or your wife’s bra size).  Sad, but true.

Unfortunately I bailed out right before the truly insane price gains.  Who knew they’d go even higher?  I have no regret getting out - my only regret is not sticking around one more year to gouge some poor, mindless yuppie for another $150k.

I miss the ocean breezes but that’s about it.  Love following the blog - and it’s comforting to know that reality and rational thought eventually win.  Every time.  Sometimes it just takes awhile.

Wish I could have lived in the O.C. thirty years ago - before it became a playground for the Nouveau Rich and the wannabe Nouveau Rich.  Sad to see such a beautiful place spoiled by so many unbeautiful (on the inside) people…  :(

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-26 09:49 AM

Ad hominem attacks… tsk.. tsk…. and yet you ignore my point. 

My issue with your original post and follow ons are simple and I have already explained them to you.  But I will break my David Byrne quote and I will say it again:

“I don’t like people who ignore the issues in their own backyard and then go on a ‘holier than thou’ proselytizing campaign against others”.  And in your case, I know the culture of your new home very, very well.

This is after all a RE board, not a pulpit.  Don’t tell me that OC is bad because you don’t like the rich kids in Fashion Island.  Huh? 

Besides, again I repeat myself, I think that IR’s basic premise for this thread is fallacious.  He got taken too far and allowed a perfect opening for people like you.  This thread should be about “Psycho Killers on the 405” not “The Grand Illusion”. 

Because everyone knows that the bank Styx was itself a Grand Illusion and a very weak copy of Queen.  Hmphr…. IR sounds like a young punk….  time to dust off your LPs ( yep I got thousands of those still) and look up real tunes for a change.

BTW- we don’t shop at South Coast.  We shop at Costco which I still call The Price Club and -aside for a penchant for fine Hawiian shirts- my choice of clothing still fits right in the Pacific NW.  Patagonia shell and all.

And a true Oregonians don’t need no sissy dry cleaners.  You can wash your own Pendleton wool shirts in woolite at home (or at least that how I did it when I lived in the NW and how my family does it still).  And although today polypropylene has overtaken the old wool long johns I still prefer the warmth of wool when it gets cold and wet.  A true Northwesterner knows the value of wool, man!  You better get your REI membership soon and buy some real Pendleton gear as well.

BTW, my REI membership number is the very low six digits ( or may be high five… I forget… it’s been like 30 years plus..).  When they look it up at the cash register they always think it must be clerical error.  wink))

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-26 09:32 AM

Maybe so… but China still depends greatly on exports and the health of its domestic demand is based upon moneys that come for the exports.

A second issue is that the credit crunch we’re seeing now is global.  As your Canuck newspaper quote noted, the US, Europe and Japan account for 45% of global demand.  And you can pretty much figure that the other 55% is greatly affected by moneys being spent by the US, Europe and Japan.  Hence, a credit crunch in the First World will have a domino effect elsewhere and China will go into a recession too.

Astute Observation by awgee
2007-08-25 05:30 PM

China now has a much larger domestic demand than the US and the rest of the world is beating a path to it’s door to buy it’s cheap products.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 04:31 PM

The way things are..

It’s the Chinese economy that has the most to worry about the american consumer.

And perhaps the union longshorement in Long Beach and LA ports might agree to a reasonable wage?

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-25 03:31 PM

AMERICAN CONSUMER LOOKS INTO THE ABYSS
Buckling under soaring debt payments and plunging home equity, how much longer can the ‘fabled’ U.S. Shopper carry the weight of the economy?

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/story.html?id=7a61fd5b-3974-4055-9dbf-4ed6c735a575&p=1

Astute Observation by HAPPYHEART
2007-08-25 02:08 PM

Tonye - I give!  I just can’t suffer through another one of your diatribes.  Somewhere in my post you must have felt personally attacked as you seem unable to comprehend that I was doing nothing more than making an observation related to the Grand Illusion.  If you see things differently that’s your perogative.  I sense some underlying anger issues with you.  Maybe your RE is not holding up as well as you expected and now you’ll have to work a few more years?  Perhaps you’re running out of equity in which to finance your lifesytle?  Pure speculation on my part.  It’s sad that you feel uncomfortable in a place like Oregon.  I can’t imagine what that’s like since I feel just as good about myself at South Coast Plaza as I do at the Costco here in Oregon.  By the way, I do shop at Target too. Love that store!  It’s a wonderful thing to be able to adapt to different environments and really enjoy all the elements good and bad of a particular geographical location.  You really should try to broaden your mind and embrace different attitudes.  BTW, since you know my backyard better than I do will you please direct me to a drycleaner?  I can’t find anyplace up here that will do a man’s shirt for less than $2.25 and I can’t get used to paying more than $1.00.  Shortage of cheap foreign labor up here.

Astute Observation by awgee
2007-08-25 11:13 AM

kate - There is no possibility in having a reasonable dialogue with Kirk.  Kirk is a troll who can not participate in two way discourse, so instead exagerates and misrepresents those agencies or issues he is angry with in an attempt to make those agencies or issue seem preposterous.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 10:46 AM

Sun Valley is beautiful.  I had college buddies who lived in Ketchum.  We went hiking into the Sawtooth Mountains. 

Great trout too.  This was back in ‘79 and ‘80.

I suppose things have changed a lot.  I guess that part of Idaho is now the LAPD retirement camp.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 10:43 AM

Just curious… what are the leases like?

I was wondering if I should rent out my house and lease one up the hill in TR.

I don’t want to sell because after 20 years of ownership our Prop 13 tax savings are awesome.  Even in a down market, our RE tax is like 0.3%... That’s right… three tenths of one percent.

Hence I can rent out the 5b/3ba home and make it work financially.

Then I could rent up in the hill a 4b/3ba home with a 3 car garage and a city light view. 

I don’t really want to go to TRidge because it’s too far from Rancho and Uni.

Astute Observation by kate in tx
2007-08-25 09:43 AM

As I understand Jesus, he’s not about hate or enjoying anybody’s suffering - whatever happened to love your enemies, give everything you have to the poor, etc - ?

I’ve heard it said about tx politicians - if you thinkthese guys are scary you should see their constituents…

I probably shouldn’t have, but I took a look at Kirk’s blog, and even attempted to take it at face value, but its full of lgoical contradictions - the market is to reward the stong and elimate the weak, but he wants an interest rate cut to save his investment…

This is something I hear in other commentaries about the subprime/credit crisis - that its all the fault of financially irresponsible people (renters) who should never have been enxtended credit in the first place - ignoring the middle/upper middle incomes who’ve stretched too far or bet of ever rising property values, and a lot of abusive mortgage brokers (I love blownmortgage.com’s “why I hate my indutsry” section) I hear this in policy circles too. I don’t think having the crisi blamed on a particular social class.

Astute Observation by effenforreal?
2007-08-25 09:23 AM

Westpark has a low-priced condo?

Astute Observation by Mark F.
2007-08-25 09:19 AM

Eloquent commentary on status and our relentless pursuit of it.  The fact that I have bookmarked this site as a psychological/self-help resource in addition to a reference to help me sell my Westpark condo that nobody seems interested in buying (despite its now ridiculously low price) is a testament to the ingenuity of the blog-keeper.  Well done, and thanks for the Matisse artwork.

Astute Observation by granite
2007-08-25 08:23 AM

No, Blackfoot. Not far from Yellowstone and Sun Valley. Beautiful scenery, but we were not LDS members so social life was lacking.  Back then (about 1985-86) housing was dirt cheap in Idaho but we decided to rent, thankfully. When the job didn’t work out, we moved back to Orange County where jobs were waiting.

The Orange County Register did a front page story about people who moved back to Orange County then, and our picture was on the front page.

Astute Observation by curmudgeon
2007-08-25 07:39 AM

ROFLMAO

I think the Colbert reference above is most appropriate.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 07:16 AM

Pocatello?

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 07:11 AM

So you’ve been in Grants Pass ( or Medford ) for like less than a year?

And you shop at Nordstrom’s and Ann Taylor? 

Not Mervyn’s, Target, Trader Joe’s and Costco?

Dude, you’re the yuppie who came from California and destroyed the local property prices by overpaying. 

Sadly, that is what your neighbors think about you.  That is what your neighbors have been saying about out of staters coming in since my family settled in the NW in 1977.

Somethings never change.  Amazing.

Like I said, I know your backyard better than you.  Open you eyes and really look.  There may be few boob jobs around but the people are very prejudiced and closed to outsiders.  Don’t take them for face value,

Astute Observation by awgee
2007-08-25 07:09 AM

It seems that the tendency to denigrate another’s lifestyle or home location would indicate an insecurity with one’s own circumstance or lifestyle.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 07:05 AM

The weather in the Villamette Valley really sucks.  It’s actually more dismal than the Puget Sound proper.

Once upon a time I had to drive in Eugene with a completely frozen I5.  All of the bridges from Roseburg into Portland were frozen and the freeway was a mess of black ice.  Took us like 10 hours to make the trip.  Worst drive of my life.

And yes, the OR drivers are dismal too.  Once upon a time, in the 70s, Oregonians were faster drivers than Washingtonians.. that is, they actually broke the double nickel, and their cops were cool.

But then they had an influx of Northern Californians and Easterners move into OR and WA and the dynamics of the whole place just went to pot. 

Driving in Western OR today is an exercise in frustration.  If you get the chance, take the Eastern side.  Much nicer people, colder in the winter but much drier… however, it’s a lot more rural.  And you will want to carry your shotguns in the truck in case some liberal from the Western Side of the state tries to come your way.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 06:58 AM

Wait a minute… stop the ad hominem attacks.  No one is defensive here.  You just come in with a “holier that thou” attitude that has nothing to do with the RE market.

Please stick to the RE market.

And be aware that there are poseurs everywhere.  You might want to look into your own backyard.

I used to live in the Pacific NW eons ago and I have a lot of family in WA and OR.  So, perhaps I know your backyard better than you.  But I don’t pick on it. 

The idea is to let people be and to stick with RE.

I believe that this thread by IR is indeed fallacious as well. 

It should have started with the Sex Pistols “anarchy in the UK”... perhaps renames “anarchy in the RE” 

Or possibly The Talkings Heads “Life in Wartime”.

Or also Tonyo K “One Big Happy Family”.

Of course…

“When I got nothing to say
My lips are sealed.
Say someting once,
Whay say it again?“

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 06:52 AM

The pizza is the best.  But I find that I like my ribeye steaks about 3 inches thick, so I’m forced to buy the whole roast and cut my own.

Then there’s the times when I feel like I’m back in the Puget Sound area.  There’s a lot of “Kirkland” in my house.  wink

Now, if they’d put a Costco in Fashion Island I might drive that way sometimes.

But my favorite food store is Marukai.  They got a new one in Costa Mesa,  right near where Fedco used to be at.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 06:47 AM

(1) I didn’t mean to pick on you.  I just meant that OC is not like those TV shows.

(2) The cultural connection to OC is very weak.  Just like using Styx is a very weak link.  Styx was always the artistically weak rip off from Queen.  If you want that type of Music, listen to Queen not Styx. 

(3) the connections between the “culture of the self aggrandization” and it’s corollary, “the myth of Credit Card Financing” are NOT unique to Orange County.  They’re common all over the world.  In regards to the RE market it’s worst excesses are NOT in OC, but are in lower income areas where people who should have been renting were “able” to buy McMansions… Vide Palmdale, Riverside, Sacramento, Las Vegas, Kingman, Phoenix… and ALL OVER THE COUNTRY.

(4) Oddly enough, those “self centered” poster children you so despise are the most likely to survive a downturn.  After all, those “rich kids” are the ones with real money and do NOT represent the general population in Irvine or even Orange County.  They represent rich kids everywhere… LA, OC, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Medford, you bet….  the only difference is on the size of their winter parkas, but the attitude is identical.

(5) What I object to, is those posters who use mediam prices in OC without regards to the differences in the areas.  This is like saying that Bill Gates overpaid because the median price in King County is barely enough to pay the rent in Federal Way.

(6) What I object to, are the “holier than thou” who from their glass churches hail fire and brimstone to OC based upon shallow experiences or from watching TV shows.  My wife, a “REAL, real OC housewife” has nothing in common with those cartoons in the TV show.  No do my female co workers in LA county have much to do with the Baywatch or 90310 cast.

(7) What I object to, are those out of state posters who have no clue about our state and who blithely ignore their own problems.  Get a clue folks… I went to the Rose Parade one year and the weather was fine..  Meanwhile many of you were digging your way out of yet another snow storm.  There’s a reason why RE is SoCal and Hawai’i are high… THE FINE WEATHER…. Even the SE is humid and Florida is a swamp…

Anyhow…. if you think I’ve been ranting… heck.. I used to get complements in the early days of the Internet (DARPA) with my flames.  I’m being nice here so you won’t need an asbestos suit.  wink

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 06:23 AM

Yeah… I think the Hollywood media is having a field day with the image of OC.

Now then, normally if the general population has a clue, they would understand that TV is just a show, but being that many have no idea of how to even spell IRAQ -not that stops them from complaining about it- they actually believe the fiction they see on TV.

I won’t even call it “pulp fiction” because that would insult Tarantino.

Hence, all of those “reality” shows.

And yes, MTV is a disaster.  It used to be about music… that particular show about CRIBS is abysmal.  Most of those people are so caught up on their own BLING, BLING! that is ludicrous.  I’ve seen mobile homes with more taste that some of those “mansions”.

BTW, my wife doesn’t have fake tits…. nor do any of my neighboring ladies… maybe I should tell them they should all sell their Honda/Acuras/Bimmers, get new tits and buy a bunch of Cadillacs and S500s.

And the last time I went to Fashion Island was to take my daughter to a dermatologist.  Before that was to go to their food court.  Nice place.  Much nicer than anything I’ve ever seen Grants Pass and Medford.  And I’ve been going through those places for more than 20 years.

I wonder if Pamela Anderson will get a replacement… wink

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-25 06:14 AM

Are you related to Captain Kirk?

Astute Observation by granite
2007-08-25 06:06 AM

This is one of the most engrossing blogs I have ever read. I suppose it’s because that I am a native Hoosier that has lived in Orange County twice, with a 9 month hiatus in eastern Idaho.

Orange County (not “the O.C.“) has changed since the early ‘80s when I first moved here. There was a lot more agriculural land and less prentiousness then. But my job is here and when its a little cloudy or chilly, its really “just another sh**ty day in paradise”.

The grass isn’t always that much greener elsewhere. Yeah, I miss the 4 seasons, but not that much. And housing values are declining pretty much everywhere else to some degree. The problem of course is our house prices are out of reach and reality. So I will keep reading this blog until reality bites the housing market and I can finally buy a house again.

More sermons please IR!

Astute Observation by Incredulous
2007-08-25 03:50 AM

I just tried to access Kirk’s site and came up with this:

WARNING!!!
It is currently between the hours of 12AM and 6AM.

On July 15th I warned people like you that if you kept ringing my site bell at this hour that I would take down the site at night.

In order to keep the site up in case of emergencies I have tried to sleep with earplugs and have even purchased a small waterfall for my bedroom to drown out the bell’s noise. Not only did this not work, but the waterfall actually kept me up all night. I am surprised I’m even still living with all the sleep I have lost.

So, if you just came by to ‘entertain’ yourself at this unGodly hour then congratulations! You’ve just ruined a vital lifeline for those seeking conservative guidance during the hours the anti-Christ is most active.

If you are here because you are feeling weak under the devil’s spell and are considering abandoning President Bush and the Republicans, I am truly sorry that I am not here to help you. Please proceed immediately to Free Republic and seek assistance there.


(me again) Apparently Kirk doesn’t know how to shut the sound off on his computer….

Astute Observation by covered
2007-08-24 11:33 PM

If Donald Trump balanced wheels at AAMCO, do you think he’d be married to Melania Knauss?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=13815
Minyanville - NEWS & VIEWS-Article

Astute Observation by covered
2007-08-24 11:27 PM

To Have or to Have Not

by Woody Dorsey

Do you have what you need? It is easy to think of someone you know who has more than you. It is easy too, to think of someone you know who has less than you. You probably have more now than you did before say, a few years ago. Having more is a good thing or, “are comparisons odious?” Billionaires are boring. Do you really believe that judging your net worth is that important? What time do you have? Do you know?

What do you Know?

Did you know that most human beings think that they are smarter than average. They also think that they are smarter than you or me. Can you believe that!

What do you Believe?

I diagnose Financial Culture for a living. When I watch Financial Television I am interested to hear how often the commentators say “I believe.” It sounds pretty good…at least they think it does. Makes them sound well… sound, solid, knowledgeable. But is the market really a religious forum? When you believe something, it means you don’t really know something but you are pretty darn sure of it? It is noble to believe but in reality, you believe in things which you don’t know. One is ignorant but believes. Do you believe that you have enough? They say “Seeing is Believing,” but it isn’t. Seeing is Knowing. But Knowing is not Understanding. Do you want to be a Billionaire? Well, you can eat like one. Your palate and your digestive system don’t know your net worth. Your stomach doesn’t care if you’re a great big boring Billionaire or not.

Those Great Big Boring Billionaires

I was out with some folks the other night and I mentioned that the Billionaires are Boring. What? Yeah, they are really boring. Why would anyone pay big bucks to have lunch with that really rich guy from Omaha? You know who I mean. They were shocked. “Warren is so nice and generous and smart,” they said. I said yes, sure he is, but he is boring. Warren is wonderful and so are the other Billionaires but I would rather go out for lunch with you. Do you really want to be Warren? If you do, I actually don’t want to go out to lunch with you. You are you. Let Warren be Warren. How Wealthy are you? You are Wealthy! How wealthy are you? You are as wealthy as you are.

Wealth Management

My wife thinks we should talk to a Financial Planner. Me, who trades volatility, spends weekends studying markets and consults with the biggest money men around! I predicted and profited from the recent market panic. I have more money now than I did last month. Do I really understand markets? Am I wealthy? How do I manage the money? Just get more or, based on my age, put it into the percentages of growth stocks, fixed income and cash that I am supposed to be in? I explain to her that Financial Management is just formulaic. It is boring. She wants to talk to an expert. Of course there are no absolute experts. But she doesn’t know that. She doesn’t understand money… thus she wants an expert. She understands other things like art but not wealth. Wealth is a proverbial “State of Mind.” That means that it is Psychological. Your wealth, your “having or not having,” varies from moment to moment depending on your Psyche. Your Psyche is more powerful than what is in your pocket. Time is more important than money.

Time is the Unique Commodity

How much money do you have? Enough? Not enough? You can make more. Work harder, save more, get another job, do some overtime? But, how much time do you have? You can’t make any more time. There is no over time. There is only our allotted time. How much time do you “have or, not have?”

Obituary Management

At the end of the day, at the end of your life, you only have what you have left. Actually, it isn’t really yours anymore. The poorest human being has so much more than you have. All the “Have Nots” have more than you when you are dead. If you are lucky, you end up with an Obituary. So take your baby out for bite to eat and eat like a Billionaire. You have earned it.

To Have or to Have Not

Do you have or do you have not? Why not have what you have! It’s all you’ve got. It is about the having, not, the not having. I believe that but I would like to understand that. Wouldn’t you?

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-24 09:52 PM

Fed bends rules to help two big banks
If the Federal Reserve is waiving a fundamental principle in banking regulation, the credit crunch must still be sapping the strength of America’s biggest banks. Fortune’s Peter Eavis documents an unusual Fed move.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/24/magazines/fortune/eavis_citigroup.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007082417

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-24 09:50 PM

Condo Troubles Further Squeeze Property Lenders

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118799900508008451.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-24 09:39 PM

Interview from Dr. Laura’s show that fits well with today’s topic.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2007/08/22/suzanne-researched-this-part-2/

Astute Observation by Sue
2007-08-24 09:16 PM

I have fun playing the opposite card.  I go on about how awesome Costco is and it’s so great to have a nice tree lined sidewalk to walk on so you don’t have to drive to the store, etc. and it’s so cool.

The reactions are hilarious.

Astute Observation by Fake Wealth Created
2007-08-24 09:11 PM

Well Written. Truer words were never spoken. I’ve seen this market drop 10% to 15%. and am waiting for the next 25%. I don’t follow or have access to the opened escrow numbers. It seems to me like we need a major event, like a period of no new escrows, to shock this market into further declines. I experienced the 1990 decline first hand, and it seemed more swift.

It boggles my mind that there are still people willing to plop down over $400 per sq. foot at this stage. Unfortunately these are the people delaying price declines.

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2007-08-24 08:39 PM

I agree with Happy Heart as well.  The last area we lived in (suburb of a metropolitan city) had an average family income 1.5 times Irvine’s, but the culture was much more like that Happy Heart describes in Oregon.

I too find watching the ladies all decked out with the little dogs facinating ... I thought that was something made up for “Legally Blonde”, was so surprised that unlike most Hollywood stuff, it wasn’t made up.

Astute Observation by Jeff
2007-08-24 07:41 PM

Where did the punch bowl go?
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2007-08-24 06:16 PM

I have thought to move the family to Oregon a couple of times. The last time was during football season a couple of years ago. I watched the Oregon Ducks play in November on a rainy day. They said it had rained the last 21 consecutive days in Eugene. I knew right then I could not live there.

Astute Observation by sunsetbeachguy
2007-08-24 06:08 PM

Enjoy the drivers doing 55mph on a 65 mph freeway in OR.  Enjoy the cops giving tickets for 1 mph over the limit.

Enjoy the people who have never left their home county and/or lived in Portland and never gone to Mt. Hood (40 min away by car).

Enjoy the traffic and the drizzle.

Enjoy the really bad roads since 6 months out of the year spikes are allowed in & on Portland freeways, where it might snow 1-2 times per year.  This totally destroys the roads.  They repaved 215 and within 6 months of winter it was bad to its horrible state.

Enjoy the really bad schools.

Enjoy the underfunded, falling apart and overly expensive Oregon University System.

Enjoy the schizophrenic state government, with ultra-liberals in Portland that don’t want any taxes and ultra-conservatives everywhere else outside the Urban Growth Boundary.

For the most part (excepting Nike) most professional services in Portland, sell & travel to California.

Enjoy the retails shops that open at 9am and close at 5pm M-F, are open 8-12 on Sat and closed on Sunday.  No wonder the economy sucks, you have to take off of work to go spend some money.

Nothing makes a Portlander happier than standing in a line and nothing pisses them off more if you go around them.

Here is somebody else’s take on it.
http://www.knick-knack.com/rants/places/portland-oregon-sucks.html

Yes, I lived there.

Good Beer though, all the clowns giving California a bad name should go there.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2007-08-24 05:53 PM

Jim E.

Your comment did a great job of capturing the sentiment and importance of the post. As I reread the post and the comments, I was starting to become concerned that the connection between this behavior and the housing market—and ultimately our lives—was lost.

I don’t spend much time thinking about these people except when their behavior begins to impact my life, which it has with the housing bubble.

Astute Observation by ParadiseLost
2007-08-24 04:31 PM

I moved to the OC in ‘69…before there was a Dana Point Marina,  or much of anything except little beach towns and orange groves.  It was so perfect in those days.  There wasn’t much money in the OC back then, so we all just enjoyed the beach and the great weather. Then, the “money” moved in and the great build out begin.  Paradise Lost.

Last year I moved to Portland, OR.  I have to say, this place is refreshing.  Its true, no one cares what you wear or what kind of car you drive ( they do care how “green” one is, tho).  I love it here, but Laguna will always be in my heart and my “hometown”. 
I worked in Irvine for many, many years and reading about the neighborhoods on this blog makes me feel at home, sad as it is for some homeowners.

Astute Observation by Jim E.
2007-08-24 04:16 PM

What’s up with tonye?  I go out of my way to agree with him, and he basically says I’m an idiot.  Whatever.

TangerineSpeedo brings up the obvious cultural thing I meant to mention, and that is the obsession with celebrity.  It’s always existed, but not the way it has in the past 15 years or so.

As far as the shows go, I’m not a prude.  I get a kick out of them.  I’d like to think they don’t influence my attitudes and personal behavior too much (for ex: I don’t emulate the materialism, at least not more than before viewing the programs).  I find it entertaining.  Same goes for strolling around Fashion Island or the Spectrum. 

But yeah, call me judgmental if you want, but I do think certain cultural changes aren’t ideal, particularly if entire generations come to adulthood with irresponsible habits and desires.  The generation that lived through the Great Depression never forgot the value of a dollar.  (That culture could get taken too far, too: my Great Depression surviving grandfather criticized me when he found out I had a car payment.  If I couldn’t pay cash for everything, then he thought it should never be purchased. That’s stupid.)  Certain cultural traits affect the entire society in tangible ways.  Not everything in a culture is good or indifferent.

And while a live and let live attitude is mostly fine (and I mostly agree with it), the fact that our society has a negative savings rate, has jacked up the real estate market to historic proportions, knows more about Britney Spears than, say, Iraq’s non-role in 9/11 does effect me.  I think this blog’s discussion of the role of culture in the housing bubble is significant, and not something that occurs in a vacuum.  Some people are having difficultly “living their own lives,“ as TangSpeedo put it, because of this stuff.  While I’m personally not “upset” about this particular stuff on a day to day basis, certain things do concern me.  I’m concerned that too many Americans have their priorities out of whack, and such priorities (in terms of stock market, the nation’s economic health, etc) do sometimes effect my life.

Astute Observation by steve
2007-08-24 04:14 PM

Bill - you don’t even realize that you are exactly the type of mental that Irvinerenter was pointing out.  We don’t care that you have 2 Mercedes, but you obviously (and sadly) think they are important.

Astute Observation by Jim Jones
2007-08-24 02:27 PM

I wanna pony!

Astute Observation by Sandy
2007-08-24 02:20 PM

LOL..that hit the nail on the head with me.  I’ve learned to keep my mouth completely shut and just smile and nod when the topic turns to real estate.

Astute Observation by Jim Jones
2007-08-24 02:12 PM

Jenna too???  :( :(

Astute Observation by caliguy2699
2007-08-24 02:11 PM

Of course everyone who lives in LA could have been on Baywatch…just like anyone who is in the funeral business must look and act like the cast of Six Feet Under smile

Tonye, I don’t “believe” the TV shows…the people in them are not representative of all the people who in the area, by any stretch. My problem is what these shows stand for - that acting shallow, bratty, materialistic and entitled to wealth is attractive enough to make people want to see on TV.

Don’t forget the power of a network like MTV, considering how many teenagers watch. By glamorizing the above behavior by putting it on TV, viewers are being subliminally told these traits are not only OK, but desirable. After all, they are important enough to be followed around by camera crews and seen by millions of viewers, right?

I also don’t like that many of the shows take place in OC or SoCal, because the few people on them don’t always make everyone else look very good, IMO…particularly those Real Housewives of OC that IR mentioned. As an Orange County native, I would like to think we deserve a better representation than that.

Have a great weekend!

Astute Observation by TangerineSpeedo
2007-08-24 02:03 PM

I agree, the mindset is certainly not limited to the OC - it is everywhere.  I grew up in New York and have lived in Chicago, Iowa, San Fran and Albuquerque - it is everywhere.

I remember when Lucky, InStyle and Us came out and couldn’t believe that someone had the audacity to publish magazines purely devoted to shopping and celebrity - no surprise that each does phenomenally well while Atlantic Monthly and Harper’s (not Harper’s Bazaar) wallow.  Be that as it may, I don’t see why shallow consumerism upsets people - live your own life and if you really wanna be snarky see how to capitalize on it, turn it to your advantage.  Beware digression - I was in the Hamptons in Summer 2000 and watched people fall over themselves to get in Hamptons magazine.  They were all wannabe celebutants dying to get recognized for nothing other in life than showing up and being pretty.  I actually met an investor in the mag who also had a stake in Gotham (Manhattan) and Ocean Drive (Miami) and told him he needed to jump on the OC bandwagon - sure enough a year later Riviera showed up.  I wish I had been the one with initiative.

The moral - it’s not just OC and don’t get upset - live your own life.  I’ll only get upset if the gov’t winds up bailing anyone out of this thing.

Astute Observation by Trooper
2007-08-24 01:57 PM

Eva needs to post the cat fight picture here…...

Astute Observation by ventouxbob
2007-08-24 01:28 PM

Or is it feel her self? well you get the idea.

Astute Observation by ventouxbob
2007-08-24 01:27 PM

I think The Idea is that BLT will Feel Better about her self.
wink~

Astute Observation by lendingmaestro
2007-08-24 01:25 PM

Don’t let the NAR let in increase in new home sales trick you.  All those purchases that closed in July were ratelocked in June or early July.  Long Before the massive collapse that started on Aug 4th

Astute Observation by BLT Bill
2007-08-24 01:03 PM

IrvineRenter
Just redid my lease at Quail Ridge.  They raised my rent $ 10.00 a month.  So Irvine rents are not exploding right now. 
Wow.
I thought I was going a bit agro. Kurt is ready for the rubber room.
Thanks again man.

And HappyHeart have a good weekend too. 
I feel for you. No Trader Joes and I too would be bumming.
Hope your daughter does well at UCI. Go Ant Eaters !!!
My son is getting ready to become an OC Sheriff next year.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-24 01:02 PM

It’s a nice place to ride your bike.  And then it’s free!

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-24 01:01 PM

Come on…. you guys actually believe those TV shows?  You assume that OC is like those shows?  Jeez… who is more culturally shallow?

You guys remind me of the guy in Spinal Tap: “I read a lot and I believe everything I read”.....

Hmm.. you don’t suppose that everyone in LA county is like those folks in Baywatch, huh?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2007-08-24 12:54 PM

I would speculate there must be something in the air or the water, but then they might turn on me
wink

I don’t know. They are both good guys. They post here quite a bit. Don’t take offense. We will all be one big happy family soon enough…

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2007-08-24 12:51 PM

The funny part is that we had a real blog troll today in Kurt, and nobody got wound up.

No worries. Have a good weekend.

Astute Observation by HAPPYHEART
2007-08-24 12:49 PM

I got interested in the RE world after having our So.Cal house on the market 13 months.  Fell out of escrow twice before it finally sold to buyers with 100% financing just as the subprime market was imploding in March.  I love this blog as well as others as it is a good barometer of what’s going on in the financial world, particularly Southern Cal.  Also, my daughter attends UCI so it’s relevant to where she lives.  I’ve learned so much from this blog and others like it - you could say I’m hooked.
There are things about So. Cal I miss, Trader Joes/Ann Taylor Loft/Nordstroms variety of restaurants etc.  Some things I don’t miss are the nasty air, congestion, and artificial people.
As for your friend enjoying his mule - mules are MUCH smarter than horses.  You don’t have to drive a pickup or chew RedMan up here.  In fact your Benz would fit in just fine.  There’s even a Benz dealership in our town.  Hope your girlfriend enjoys her boob job.  As long as she feels better about herself that’s all that matters…..

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-24 12:46 PM

Dude…  sorry man… but before you attack me ad hominem you better look at yourself in the mirror.

Pretentious… oh boy… so maybe there are pretentious people in OC… so what?  How about your neighboorhood?  Maybe not pretentious, but smug and self righteous…. personally, I’ll take the pretentious because they are more fun to watch and leave me alone.

The problem with the RE market is worse in areas like Palmdale, Moreno Valley, Riverside, etc…. than it is in Newport Beach and Irvine. 

Me?  I’m pretty mellow about things.. I don’t pass judgment as you do… I just observe and let live.  If someone wants to flaunt their money, hey I enjoy the show.  Why should you give a hoot about what they do?

That’s is one of the strengths in Southern California in general.  The general laiser faire attitude amongst the population.

I got a feeling that you are the one that is defensive.  If you live in a glass house you shouldn’t be throwing stones, eh?

Astute Observation by BLT Bill
2007-08-24 12:39 PM

I submit.
Have a great weekend IrvineRenter.
Love your site. I wont trash talk it up.
But the Oregon troll got me going.

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-24 12:39 PM

Well… that sucks.

Astute Observation by HAPPYHEART
2007-08-24 12:39 PM

Irvine Renter - Why are your posters so damn defensive?!

Astute Observation by tonye
2007-08-24 12:39 PM

Actually, I prefer Hawai’i to the Mainland.

The issue that I have with such comments is that they are as shallow and stereotyped as the people they accuse.  It’s the old “I’m better than you and you deserve it…“.

You get these people who move out and into their own “private idahoes” and then tell the rest of us how we are so awful.  And mind you, this has nothing to do with OC, you will see people move from Ohio to Chicago and do the same thing.

What it comes down to is that you can not pick on a whole region based upon the behavior of the few (or even the not so few).  You will find nice, honest, hardworking people in Roseburg, Redmonds, Newport Beach, Manhattan, Mililani, Irvine, etc… if you yoursefl are nice, honest and hardworking.  I have me some of the nicest people in all of those places.