Irvine Housing Blog

It always bothers me when there are no interior pictures.  What exactly is going on inside the home?  Has this been home to renters?  They might just still be there and won’t let pictures be taken.  There a meth lab taking up the kitchen ?  Hydroponics in several of the bedrooms?

In fact, there was a reference to a balcony that was not in any photograph, either.

And the REAL reason you keep seeing these crazy prices is that when realtors come to try and get the listing, the one that appeals to the denial and the greed of an owner will often get the listing.  Forget that realtor who is saying that the market conditions are markedly different than just a couple of years ago and that in order to move the property you’re going to have to list it attractively to get someone to take the bait.  Desperate owners driven by ignorance, denial and hope will take the realtor who promises that the property really IS all that special.
——-

That’s why it is going to take awhile for the bubble to deflate.

Lots of house-debtors in denial who still have faith in that social contract that you have talked about in the past.

Mix in a little entitlement mentality about real-estate never going down and you’ve got a stalemate.  But of course we all know that the sellers are on the losing end of the stalemate as its their money going PFFF every month that the house does not sell.

They want to believe that there is something magical about their own house that gives it a huge premium over the rest of the neighborhood.

It won’t sink in until it sits for a year with no bites.

That’s unfortunate about the 525K down payment that those people threw away.  If they weren’t so focused on keeping up with the Joneses, they could have bought a very nice house elsewhere CASH and not ever have to make a monthly payment. 

But no, of course, we always want more than what we have and we want it right now.

These people will be eating humble pie very shortly.

The reason I selected over $1.1 million I assumed it was a beginning listing. Even I would attempt to get within (under that is) $250K of my purchase price. Actual selling price will be closer to $1 million. Lack of pictures is suspicious.

If these were the move up buyers in 2005/2006 with their easy earned bubble equity, now they are destined to lose it all and more.

IPO will buy either one right now if the asking is 1.1-1.2 m. Will you not IPO?

They must have drop dead ocean view in Woodbury for asking this WTF prices in 2008.

“If they weren’t so focused on keeping up with the Joneses, they could have bought a very nice house elsewhere CASH and not ever have to make a monthly payment. “

Good point.  Could also add, “or pay rent”.

I think what you describe is exactly what is going on. It is one of those situations where the realtor needs to be careful what they ask for because they got the listing by selling a fantasy upon which they can’t possibly deliver. Both parties end up wasting their time and resources; the realtor loses the money spent on advertising, and the homedebtor loses the money spent on several months of servicing their debt.

All I have to do is look at the property taxes that these people are paying and that lets me know that these houses have sold for about twice what they should be worth in a normal market.

House #1: 2006 Property Tax: $16,139
House #2: 2006 Property Tax: $24,078

Can you imagine the fear and pain that these people must of felt after making those monthly housing payments only to be slapped in the face with the property tax bill.

Granted, there is a good chance that the house payment includes prop tax and insurance and that would mean a monthly house payment that is hard to fathom.

Huge property tax bills like these make sense when you are rich and live in a real mansion, not in a very nice tract home on a 6400 sq ft lot.

That $525k could have been an inheritance, too.

People who suddenly find themselves with “found” money but lack the dicipline to have actually “aquired” it by hard work, savings and financial strategies can be unbelievably gullible and “wrong”.

Really, WHO would do this?  Who would work for that kind of cash and throw it away on this particular property?  They didnt even bother to take out a liar loan and preserve that bundle of cash.

And there is a chance that they are not even living in it themselves at this point.  IE the lack of photos that would show this supposed pride of ownership.

How does one make a house payment when they have no job?

Job losses: Worst in 5 years

Payrolls sink in February, fueling recession anxiety. Unemployment rate declines, but that’s because there are fewer people in the workforce.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com)—Employers made their deepest cut in staffing in almost five years in February, according to a closely watched government report that showed the labor market to be far weaker than expected.

The weak report fueled already mounting recession fears and is likely to influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates later this month. ....

http://tinyurl.com/35wjuu

There’s a great Australian film called “The Castle” and it’s all about homeownership.  In it, the main character and his son discuss the ads in the Pennysaver with the father figure always saying, “He’s dreamin’...”

So I say knife catchers and we call them “Dream catchers” =)

it is worth $400K less than the neighbor, just like their purchase prices

Shouldn’t it be “it’s worth 22% less than the neighbor, just like their purchase prices”?  Or an indicated asking price of about $1,050,000?  The nominal spread can’t remain intact all the way down, but the percentage spread might.

Not to mention that they have the keep the place looking spotless on a daily basis for potential viewings.  All for naught.

Yup.  I’d have taken my 525K bubble money and left the state.

Buy a nice house elsewhere CASH.  No monthly housing/rent payment ever again.  Life is good!

Unless, you re-invest your bubble money back into more housing debt.  Then you are screwed like these people.

“Not to mention that they have the keep the place looking spotless on a daily basis for potential viewings. All for naught.”

In this particular case, don’t take any interior photos at all and keep people guessing if it is or ever was spotless

Exactly.  Most people have earned and saved up 525K would never spend it on this house.  It’s simply “not worth it”.

This is why I always say that all these myopic bubble participants care about is the monthly mortgage payment.  House costs 5 trillion dollars?  So what - as long as some mortgage hustler out there can “get” me “in” for 3000.00 per month.

It becomes very real when the house value drops a 10% and all of a sudden WHAM!  Like a ton of bricks, the participants start to realize the amount of money they have been playing house with.

The value of the house takes an easy 100K haircut; not a big deal for all of these people pretending to be millionaires.  Amazingly, the phoney baloneys all start walking rather have to actually save up 100K and make good on the debt that they accepted.  No way, that would take way too long.  It’s simply “not worth it”.

If you begin at 1.1 million then you are just going to chase the market back into 2002.

What’s the problem with this picture?  $1.5 Million dollar houses that are 20 feet away from the next door neighbors. Not to mention that they are about 40 feet from the street. These houses shouldn’t be going for more than $800K to $850K tops. People are fools.

Top-ramen for dinner!

They probably don’t even know what their property tax bill is. 

They’ve got it all rolled into the monthly payment by their mortgage master.

By this year and your dream becomes a nightmare in 2009.

“clueless-WTF-nutcases” works for me.

“I think these clueless WTF sellers have finally pushed me over the edge. I want to shame them; shame them all. “

Ever consider sending the listing agent and the “listor” a postcard with IHB on it and an invitation to join the discussion on the particular day that their property was “featured”?

That would do it. 

True. 

A granite counter top probably doesn’t have the same appeal with a bloody axe on top of it and headless chickens and pentagrams strewn throughout the house.

All sellers on here should get a nice little flyer in their mailbox to let them know of the free publicity they are getting on their asking prices.  It could even invite them to come on to the forums to see all the EXCITMENT that their listing has elicited!

You are being generous with your dimensions. These houses are probably 10’ apart and 20’ from the street.

At what point do we all realize how mean we’ve gotten?

I am lmao at the prospect of notification!

I would have thought that the free market would have solved this problem years ago with houses within 10 feet of each other languishing on the market.

Apparantly, the general public is OK with living in a neighborhood that resembles Washington’s army at Valley Forge.

In a neighborhood near me, in Encinitas, a home was foreclosed on listed for $599K and then sold for $525K by the bank. This has caused untold anxiety by those living in this neighborhood who had valued their homes at $850K and up.

Delusion will soon turn into angry and then depression.

The front image of the postcard would have to be nothing but IrvineRenter’s trademark turnkey picture - that would surely entice the receiver to read what it says on the back which would contain the invitation.

I heard that 70% of sales in Cali were due to sales by the banks (Bank REOs).

The value of real estate is set at the margins by comps.

It sounds crazy but if you’re from New York, Hong Kong, or Tokyo, (name your asian city here),  this IS a lot of land.

The good news for those angry people though is that their house will always be worth to them whatever they want it to be worth and nobody can ever take that away from them.  It’s theirs; a place to call their own.  They have achieved the American Dream.

It may not be worth that much to other people, but that is beside the point.  It is their house and they certainly do not have to sell it for any less than they feel they deserve.  God bless America.

So they need not worry about what is going on in the rest of the neighborhood as they apparantly have a great house to live in which is ultimately the most important matter.

But Irvine isn’t Tokyo or even San Francisco.  There is land in Irvine (despite what realtors might like you to believe).  These million dollar plus homes could be a bigger lots.  The real question in my mind is why the hell idiots (and yes, you’re an idiot if you live in Irvine and your million dollar estate is ten feet from your neighbor’s million dollar estate) would buy these homes at these prices.  It’s a tract house comfortably nestled quite close to lots of other tract houses. There’s nothing unique about this house.  There’s no real value there.  It’s anything but an estate.

And I’m not making the mistake of comparing this home to something somewhere else.  It’s simple matter of looking at Irvine and pondering, for just a moment, why did these people build these things so close together and do I, as a potential buyer, want to pay for that poor judgment?

It’s not much more complex than that.

Never underestimate emotion or herd mentality.

Oh, and “juliet balcony”, hilarious.

Definitely move somewhere where housing prices aren’t so screwed up when compared with income levels.

Then when you need to see some sun and beach, take a dang vacation!

Exactly! It’s just a f*cking tract home!

Welcome to Scottsdale, AZ.  Home of your many former neighbors. 

The smart ones who took their housing lottery winnings and ran like hell.

Can someone who lives close by 25 Triple Leaf put a copy of today’s blog in their mailbox? 

This is the neighborhood of Mille Fleur, a tract done by Stan Pac. I rent a place just down the road and often walk that neighborhood. I went through it last week and counted 10 homes for sales, not including 2 still in inventory from the builder.

My actual count raises a question with Zip Realty inventory. After my stroll last week I looked at this neighborhood and Zip only showed one home for sale while I counted 10.

What gives?

If someone with the means to pay for this million dollar box decides to plunk down the dough and stomach the fact that they’ll be paying nearly $2k in TAXES every month, so be it. I personally think that people with an ounce of sense will take their money elsewhere and buy a bona fide mansion in a different city, and get (much) more value for their dollar.

Please, please spare us.  Are you being paid by the post today, AZ? 

Have you ever considered that many people would rather pay more for less house to live in certain areas?  Whether it be because of family, culture, climate, job, or a million and one other considerations?  This may hard to comprehend, but the inflated cost of living in Southern California is widely accepted by a lot of people who live.  Have you ever heard the saying “you get what you pay for?”.  Many if not most of us would prefer a 1500 sq ft townhouse in South OC to a 3,000 sq foot McMansion for the same price in Phoenix. We value the access to all the square feet in the great outdoors 365 days a year—- not to mention the cultural benefits of the 2nd largest city in the US just a hop away.  We don’t really want a 3,000 square foot McMansion in Phonenix, which costs $750/mo to cool and we would have to wash the dirt off the windows every other Saturday. But we are not mad at you for it.  As a matter of fact, we are very happy for you.  Live and let live—- to each their own.  But realize how pointless it is to come to the IRVINE housing blog and try to tell people that they are stupid for not moving to the Valley of the Dirt.

Kind of like how Phoenix is worth a lot to you, and nothing to me—- and how Irvine is worth a lot to me, and not much to you?  So you made your own case to stop the pointless comments advising people how they are better off spending their money in Phoenix.

You have got to be kidding. 25 Triple Leaf looks like a detached condo. No view, no pool. I guess you’ll love it if you stay inside 100% of the time.

Don’t waste your time on AZ my brutha…  He doesn’t live here, he’ll never get it.  You have way better things to focus your energy on, like finding a place for you and the fam to settle down in and call home!

20’ from the street?  That must be where those 20’ tiles are!  What is with all the Nigel Tufnel realtors?

I can’t imagine how Phoenix could be worth a lot to anyone, but I guess it must be…  I’ve got to head out there to my office in Tempe next week and dread the thought.  Being in Phoenix always reminds me of growing up in the IE.

Nice post today IR
33 Triple Leaf along with 36 Twiggs are leading the high-end market down in Woodbury.
Personally, I’m hoping that the high-end market will see further declines, so that I can buy there.
Woodbury is a very nice community.
Mille Fleur and Juliet’s Balcony are top of the food chain there.

Neighborhood of Mille Fleur lunatic?  The featured property on Triple Leaf is the Juliet’s Balcony tract.  It’s not built by Standard Pacific.  It’s a John Laing home.

The thing that makes this Triple Leaf an even bigger WTF is a recent comp on 36 Twiggs in the same development. 

Twiggs is a larger house, in the very same tract, and it closed recently at $1.285M.  The buyers of the Twiggs house paid $1.4M just like these Triple Leaf buyers. 

To list at $1.6M, knowing full well you will be lucky to get $1.285M is just plain crazy…

Beat me to it ten…

Ipop is right, focus on what’s important.
Keep your eye on the prize!

I agree with Ipoplaya…Listing at 1.6 M is only going to end up costing time & money.  In this market, I think the only way to sell is have the best house at the lowest price in the neighborhood.  If your bank will go for it (since that would end up as a short sale by most owners).

Or they could chase the market down, end up laying down 3-6 (at least)more mortgage payments, and end up getting 1.2 M anyway.

comment from CR blog on new Mortgage rules.

Needless to say, this is a killer for the RE markets.

A $200,000 income would only allow for purchase of a $750,000 home.

Think of places like San Francisco… people making $200k would never dream of living in a 750k place (it’ll be a small 1BR condo or something.

This plan will slaughter high COL areas…

Check out the full comments at the link. This will not rescue Irvine, the RBA or Arlington Va. (It’s all different there)

Yeah, I agree the closing price on Twiggs will certainly pose problems for sellers over there.
Btw, nice win in OT yesterday beating the Cardinal.
Hopefully, SC will beat them tomorrow.

You are right guys.  BTW IPO, my wife and I pulled up the place on Essex this morning to review again,  before heading over this weekend.  “Accepting Backup Offers”.  So much for that.

Today’s profile of 25 & 33 Triple Leaf drives that point home.
Unfortunately, seller’s have yet to receive the memo.
Product continues to hit the market at wishing prices

Funny, IPO—my firm just moved our Phoenix offices to Tempe as well (you know where I work).  I hear the office buiding we moved into is hilarious…the lobby of the building is like you are walking into a cheesy club…neon lights, waterfall fall, some techno much going boom boom boom in the background.  Actual quote feedback I got was “totally unprofessional, but what do you expect in Phoenix”. 

If you see the sign for my firm while you are there, drop in the lobby and let me know if its as bad as described.

I agree—no interior pix and they call something on a 6500 sq ft lot an “estate” (my personal pet peeve).  This realtor is just phoning it in.  He/she must know that it will never sell at this price.

33 Triple Leaf boasts that they are “ready to deal” which usually is realtor-code for “you won’t offen us with a low-ball offer”.  The fact that it too continues to languish is an indicator of how bad things are.  It means they aren’t even within 10-15% of market price.

offen = offend

No worries CK, there is a pre-foreclosure in the pipe around the corner from Essex on Turnbury.  NOD get filed in early Feb so you can look for that one later this year…

Just so you know CK, you are worth nothing to me.

Ipo on the other hand…  rawwrrr.

For a $1.6 million dollar home, the first property on Triple Leaf is rather ugly.  >_>

The second property on 33 Triple Leaf looks much better on the outside.  The interior design is not to my liking, but that’s just a matter of personal taste.

“Please, please spare us. Are you being paid by the post today, AZ?”

Appeal to ridicule

“Have you ever considered that many people would rather pay more for less house to live in certain areas?”

Appeal to tradition + Appeal to belief.

“But realize how pointless it is to come to the IRVINE housing blog and try to tell people that they are stupid for not moving to the Valley of the Dirt.”

Straw man + ad hominem.

“but the inflated cost of living in Southern California is widely accepted by a lot of people who live”

Appeal to Common Practice

“Many if not most of us would prefer a 1500 sq ft townhouse in South OC to a 3,000 sq foot McMansion for the same price in Phoenix”

Hasty Generalization + Appeal to Ridicule

“We value the access to all the square feet in the great outdoors 365 days a year “

False Dilemma

“But realize how pointless it is to come to the IRVINE housing blog and try to tell people that they are stupid for not moving to the Valley of the Dirt”

Appeal to Ridicule + Straw man

Love you to Genius…

No techno in our Tempe office lobby.  Nice building, but we have been broken in to twice now since we moved there in October.  I relocated us from Scottsdale to Tempe to be closer to the action and sheez, what a mistake.  The hoodlums run free in Phoenix and Tempe it appears.  I’m down three laptops and a couple of flat panel monitors already.

Great story from one of my employees that lives in the Phoenix area in a fairly new master-planned development.  He had a fire in his garage one day that jacked up the house in part too.  He and his wife went to stay with their parents for a day or two after the fire due to the smoke, etc.  His truck was in the garage and it got burnt pretty good.  Garage door burnt so it was gone too.  The night after the fire when they weren’t home someone drove up, put his burnt up truck on blocks in his very own garage, and stole his rims and tires…

They had to board up the house from the inside to make sure everything didn’t get ripped off while they weren’t staying there.

This house will chase the market down and end up as an REO.  I see no other possible outcome.  I still don’t get why people are in such a hurry to pay $1M+ for a tract home.  To each their own, I suppose.

My friend found us some tickets (box @ staples) for the pac10 tourney.  UCLA winning yesterday means we’ll be seeing them, saying as you get two games per ticket basically and we’ll be seeing the #1 seed.  I had about 3 heart attacks during last nights game.  As far as tomorrow goes, for one of the few times in my life I will be cheering for SC against another PAC10 opponent, and they have a shot with Hacket coming back.

Did you check your email skek?  I sent you some details re: the IE…

AZ is bitter he isn’t successful.

just responded…

You guys are a riot.  I enjoy Ipoplaya’s posts, but someone seriously needs to queue up some Monty Python background music when reading a CK post.

Tempe is not the most attractive area of Phoenix.  It’s a college town.

I can’t imagine why anyone would want to open a “firm” down there unless they were trying to exploit cheap labor.  I hope you guys don’t make the employees park at the meters!

Nevertheless, you jokers can’t take a biased sample and apply to the entire Phoenix area.  You both know better than that.

You know that Phoenix is not that bad - you are just trying to bait me and that’s all good.  No dice!

Nice try, 25.  Not going to go there with you, though. 

AZ

How dare you, dont you know IRVINE IS DIFFERENT.  Irvine renter should close down the blog because prices in Irvine should not come down at all..  Irvinerenter—>go home   :mrgreen:

Holy cow! Someone had fire and a car theft!  Stay out of AZ people!

I think Ipoplaya is living in San Angeles from the Demolition Man movie.

have you guys seen the new fanny guideline, unless salaries skyrocket in Irvine, these houses will go back to 2000-2001 prices with the over one million homes in beach areas like George8 mentioned. it will become very difficult to get loans for these amounts, and if you do make that money, you will be demanding some nicer that a mcPOS in Woodbury.  excuse my language

Oy vey.

so they should not go for more than 700-750 tops. prices will overshoot on the way down esp for houses that have no special appeal..  8)

Wow, 70% of readers/responders think the house is worth less than 1 million, i.e. less than $266/sq ft.  What a disconnect from reality!

The seller must be an absentee owner living in Timbuktu with no internet or telephone for the last 24 months - to make this decision on the asking price in such an information vacuum.

Slamming Phoenix for it’s crime while living in socal is akin to throwing stones while living in a house made from glass.

Interesting.

I thought everyone there was earning thousands by the hour… 

Some of the more vocal Charlatans on this blog even go so far as to make claims that people earning less than 250K per year are in the minority.

Are you postulating that this may not be the case?

Indeed.  It’s pointless.  We’re here talking about Irvine house prices falling and the usual suspects want to change the subject and talk about Phoenix just because a bunch of their former neighbors saw the writing on the wall and left town with their lottery winnings to go and buy a house in AZ and not have to ever make a house payment again.

Can’t say I blame them.  If I owned in Irvine right now, I would probably want to talk anything other than falling house prices too.

Watch it, Dan -

You are rattling the hornets nest.

You are asking for a salvo blog flog and sacred land rhetoric.

Like many clueless sellers in denial, they rationalize that they only need one buyer.

AZ - Do you have a preference for you own theme song?  Since you seem to have a fixation on Southern California, maybe something like “Jealously” by Paris Hilton might be appropriate?  I bet you dig Paris, don’t you?

I was in Carefree last year for a conference at the Boulders.  All I saw on the drive up from Skyharbor was dust and rocks, rocks and dust.  Not paradise unless you are a cactus.

AZ-You’re just mistaken.  It only matters that it “looks”  like everyone in Irvine is making thousands per hour.

With neighbors so close on all sides you can hear their bodily noises.  All for a million$ plus.  No thanks.

Its hard to give a solid estimate without seeing pictures of the interior, but I think what we’re seeing a case of a Seller who was (recently, I’m a guessing) a buyer.  Like many people in their situation, they’re stuck in home thats lost 20% of its value over the last year. Now they want out on their own terms. Home owners are fickle, and stubborn, especially if you’re asking them to lose a ton of money.

Third party observer here…

If housing in Irvine are are overpriced, I think the market would have to implode before I would even think about moving there.

I mean, at least Irvine is fairly close to water and weather is great all year around.

Phoenix is in literally in the middle of freakin’ desert. Humans were NOT meant to live in the middle of a desert. And with all the global warming and water shortages, why on EARTH would even think about buying there?

I wouldn’t pay more than $50/sqft for the very best houses in Phoenix, let alone some average homes.

And talk about sprawl! If having a “decent” sized yard for a median price home means having sprawl like you have in Phoenix, I will happily take the postage sized lots in Irvine.

BTW, AZ—- For the record since I am one of your “usual suspects”, I rent in Irvine, but will be buying in Irvine so I actually do hope prices do keep falling, it only helps me. But unlike you I don’t feel it adds value to throw a bunch of stupid assessments of pricing falling to 1997 levels or you could get this for your money in BFE. That’s not realistic and is pointless.

The subject of Arizona only comes up here when you start making comments like “you elitists shoulda come to Scottsdale when you had the chance, now you are all gonna get yours”.  Sorry for paraphrasing, but I think that about sums up your feelings. Don’t worry, that’s the last comment I’ll direct your way—- as others above noted, it’s not worth the effort.  Best of luck to ya.

I meant prices in Phoenix would have to implode…

L M A O

Ipoplaya-  I see that 2 Morning Dove came back on the market yesterday….. did it fall out of escrow or was it flipped?

“but someone seriously needs to queue up some Monty Python background music when reading a CK post”

An excellent Monty Phython song for this time of recession and financial anquish:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_WRFJwGsbY

Bruces’ Philosophers Song

Immanuel Kant was a real pissant
Who was very rarely stable.

Heidegger, Heidegger was a boozy beggar
Who could think you under the table.

David Hume could out-consume
Schoppenhauer and Hagel

And Wittgenstein was a beery swine
Who was just as schloshed as Schlegel.

There’s nothing Nietzche couldn’t teach ya
‘Bout the raising of the wrist.
Socrates, himself, was permanently pissed.

John Stuart Mill, of his own free will,
On half a pint of shandy was particularly ill.

Plato, they say, could stick it away—
Half a crate of whiskey every day.

Aristotle, Aristotle was a bugger for the bottle.
Hobbes was fond of his dram,

And René Descartes was a drunken fart.
‘I drink, therefore I am.’

Yes, Socrates, himself, is particularly missed,
A lovely little thinker,
But a bugger when he’s pissed.

On the topic of it’s a small world, turns out that I used to flip burgers at the McD’s during the summer that skek ate at regularly in the late 80’s… 

You do know realize skek, we would drop those suckers on the floor all the time and still serve them right up.  You were eating what was on the bottom of my Reeboks that day!

That’s funny, Woodbury.

It’s just different from what you are used to.

It sounds to me like you need to leave CA a little more often and see what all is out there!

Comments like yours are borderline ethnocentric.  Tsk Tsk.

CK -

California is highly interesting to me.  Why?  Because I secretly want to live there and I am jealous of the rest of you and I truely hate AZ?

Nah.  It’s much simpler than that unfortunatey.

California lead the bubble up and now it is going to lead the bubble down.

Once CA hits bottom, I’ll know the rest of the country (AZ included) is not far behind.

Not as sexy as theory #1, but closer to the reality. 

SeattleGameboy -

That’s just plain stereotypical stupid-American gibberish. 

Humans have lived in desert regions for thousands of years.  Arizona was occupied by Native Americans long before the white man got here and invented air conditioning and golf.

I seriously find it hard to believe that some people can be this ignorant - and yet they even go so far as to publicly post their stupidity in writing.

Amazing.

Keep up the good work!

5 second rule!

No kidding!

Who would have thought that borrowing a million dollars to buy a silly house would be such a big deal! 

Sheesh!

I do believe that in previous posts the pretty neighbor house was inhabited by a young lawyer who unexpectedly died of a heart attack.  Presumably, had he lived, he would have continued to live there and make payments. 

So there is more trajedy than foolishness.

If you actually read history, you would have known that Native Americans came over from Asia during the last Ice Age. And during that time Arizona was much cooler and lush place, well suited for human population.

This was true even several hundred years ago when the earth went through mini-ice age. The climate in Arizona was much more hospitable. If you read any scientific/anthropology journals, you would also know that most of the nomadic tribes that eek out a living in desert are remnants of civilizations that once thrived in cooler climates that got decimated when it was slowly converted to desert over last several hundred year.

No, humans are not really well adapted to desert life. We may be able to do it in small scale when we have no other choice, but it is certainly not what we are built for.

Buying a land in middle of a desert is classic sign of delusional “gold rush”. The environment is not sustainable in long term. Pheonix may not even exist in 200 years. Why would you pay any money for housing there?

Oh, if you actually read books, I would highly recommend you read “Collapse” by prof Diamond. It tells in very clear terms what effect environmental changes have on civilizations.

Seattle - Thanks for the first grade history refresher.

It’s called “drought”.  It happens in the desert.  Some of these Native Americans even managed to “eek” their living by building canals and channeling water to farm crops.  Who’d have thought that!

Also, you cannot make up generalization about “Arizona Climate” being this or that.  Only the southwest region of the state is even considered “desert”.  The rest of it is higher elevation.

Keep reading your Anthropology journals.

If you throw enough S at the wall, something will stick sooner or later.  Keep trying.

Don’t worry about it ipop, if the bottom of your reebok is the worst thing I’ve eaten at a fast food joint, I’m doing better than most people.

Sorry to respond down here, but the bberry won’t let me comment inline.

Environmental changes have effects on human civilization?

Groundbreaking thesis there, Seattle! 

Another one of life’s mysteries comes to a close!

Ya know, here’s another Arizonan (Tucson) weighing in.  I think the contrasting prices are a real issue and do have an affect on the CA market.  I grew up in SoCal, lived there till I was 30, and I do get it. But do you know what 1.5 mill will get you in Scottsdale or Tucson?  A showplace, huge lot, custom features, every amenity (and not pergraniteel).  And if you are reasonable and buy, say, a very very nice 350,00 buck house, you can do what I just did—for a thousand bucks (and we zonies have the money left over) you can spend the weekend at the Hotel Laguna, walking on the beach, strolling the shops and galleries, and without a parking problem since hotel has a spot on the beach. I also find that there is more than enough culture in Arizona to keep me busy, and if I really crave, say, a view of a big exhibit at LACMA or Denver Museum or even a New York show or concert, I have the spare cash to go there. So, unless you must work in SoCal, these thoughts must be percolating in the brains of some prospective buyers.  And there is 365 day a year recreation here—5 degrees per thousand feet, folks, and we have plenty of mountains.

From Tucson again.  The SW drought is going to seriously hit Southern California, which in fact gets even less rain than parts of southern Arizona (which I agree is in trouble water-wise), and simply ignores this fact, landscaping everywhere with lush tropical vegetation. So Cal may, in fact, be in worse shape for managing drought than Arizona since there is very little awareness among citizens of the actual situation. Look it up.  I think San Diego coast is average 8 1/2 rainfall inches/year, Tucson is 11 (of course right now it’s running more like 4 and 6 respectively).

JHill - great post.

I am a Tucson native who moved to Phoenix two years ago.  There are some amazing houses on the north side of town (base of the mountains) that are way nicer than most of the houses I have seen on the IHB and they are probably about the same prices as the Irvine houses.

Lots of people on here are convinced that there is nothing better in the world than CA.  I think it is something in their water.

I’ve got a good story about dumb buyers…

A few months ago at preschool I overheard another Mom talking about how they’d just gotten a “Great Deal” on her dream house in the Tustin hills somewhere, so they jumped on it.  They were going to fix up their house and list it right after Christmas.  So this week, I heard her lamenting how their house hasn’t sold in 8 weeks, and they may have to drop their price, and that is going to make it more difficult to afford the aforementioned dream house.  WTF!  I chuckled all the way to my car.  Maybe I should say WAI (what an IDIOT!)

Diamond is a hack.  Guns Germs and Steel is Garbage leftist propaganda.

Seatlle.  I guess that Middle East never heard of your theories on climate change…

Me again.  I just got my mail, and received a mailing from special agent Mi**ael D**n (seriously, he markets himself with that name) which says:

JUST LISTED in Northwood Pointe!  One of the largest non-custom lots on The Irvine Ranch.  Blah, blah, travertine, blah blah granite… etc…

Anyway, I’m pretty sure it’s the $2 mil property in Somerton, although you have to call for details.  What I thought was funny was that he’s touting the fact that it’s a non-custom lot.  I guess he didn’t want to say

One of the largest tract-home lots in Irvine! 

But I will give him credit for not calling it an Estate. 

Have a great weekend everyone!

Door to door, I’m
five minutes from the Barclay,
fifteen from the Performing Arts Halls (2) in South Coast,
ten from Fashion Island,
fifteen from South Coast,
five from a Trader Joe’s and In’N'Out Burger,
ten from Mervyn’s, ten from a ton of japanese, chinese, persian, mexican, american, french, thai…. restaurants.
five from the beach
five from the UCI main entry
ten from John Wayne Airport… that’s right John Wayne

Now what was that about your location?

They are in TR.

I’m no charlatan, just stating the facts that statistical income generalizations for ALL of Irvine are faulty as they included the student body and faculty at UCI.  All of which are subsidized by the state ( faculty ) or their parents ( students ).

Please stop the innuendo and faulty ad hominem attacks.

Oh, and I have no frickin’ idea of what people make on other side of Culver and University.

WATER DESALINIZATION….

If we have a big drought in the SW, I would imagine that coastal Southern California would be in a far better shape than Phoenix, eh?

There is the same amount of water on Planet Earth as there was 100, 1000, 10,000, 1,000,000 years ago, etc. etc.  Unless someone is performing fusion or fission at the bottom of the ocean…

Oh man, those are luxuries found noplace else other than CA.

Congrats, Tonye.

Well said tony.  I actually look forward to visiting my friends out in Phoenix for 4 days or so every year.  They are planning on raising a family soon and having a nice big house is very important to them, so they probably made the right decision to move there.

Definitely not for me though. I like having things to do.  I’m a stone’s throw from the 405 so I can do pretty much everything above in even a few minutes less.  (But its noisier where I live then in turtle rock, so I’d trade places with tony if I had a choice

The culture, the nightlife, convenience of being fifteen minutes from pretty much everyplace i’d need to go is worth a lot to me.

I could make the same amount of money I do now and work in Phoenix and have a huge house.  I choose not to for good reasons.

Keep telling yourself that, Tonye.

“Somebody will come along and fall right in love it with it.  It’s meant to be”.  Isn’t that what these kind of sellers usually say?

And by the way, excellent use of Twisted Sister lyrics.  Rock on.

Didn’t Juliet kill herself?

I’ve often thought about sending anonymous letters to homeowners letting them know that buyers are laughing at their WTF asking prices.  They are in such serious denial though, they would probably assume the sender got the address mixed up with the neighbor whose house is listed cheaper.

Water is local!

>> We don’t really want a 3,000 square foot McMansion in Phoenix, which costs $750/mo to cool.

3400 square feet and apx $325 for all-electric, family of four (two teens), in the hottest months. Apx $200 in the coldest months. House built in 1993.

It’s uncomfortable in LA in J/J/A, too—so you can skip the B.S.—we have all stood in line in Disneyland.

The IHB houses don’t look so magical to me. In many posts, IHB Renter compares properties that are similar / same. If you can rationalize the price premium by saying that CA is somehow unique in all the world—I think you have got what you deserve.

People who bought back in the 70’s and 80’s and have grandfathered property tax make 250K in their retirement years?  Really?  Wow, those Social security benefits must be really, really good…

Actually, per this article, in the post bubble future Arizona looks like the smartest place to buy property to follow the baby boomer and workforce trends and mazimize appreciation ....

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a789053981~db=all~order=pubdate

Ok,

45 Thousand Dollars + to selling realtor (assuming 3%).

Realtor writes “built-in cabniets”

and “4 bedrooms upstairs each with own bathrooms.”

(how many bathrooms does each bedroom need?)

I am 40 years old, have a master’s degree and have been in my
field for 15 years.  I work hard to earn 45 thousand in six months…
without spelling errors…

These realtors deserve to be shot.

Where I live a house was listed last Friday for 660k, no pictures or description in the MLS.. today reduced to 550k… still no pictures but 2
word description…  ” Short Sale”.

WTF????

$900,000 would still be a WTF price.

Anaheim isn’t LA.

Weird that we get so many AZ people on this blog…  I’ve never once had an iota of interest in a blog dedicated to Scottsdale, Phoenix, or AZ.  I can’t imagine spending any of my valuable time reading up on what was up in any other state besides CA.

“Anaheim isn’t LA.”

Now Genius, they are only 30 miles apart…

I guess visiting Apache Junction is the same as visiting Phoenix.  Scary…  Doesn’t say very much for Phoenix.

Small lots are fine for me. I lived in downtown Chicago for 17 years, so I can’t imagine what I’d do with a yard. Don’t people with yards have to buy lawn mowers and rakes and things?

Capital,

While it is true that there has been same amount of water on earth for eons, that does not mean that water distribution stays the same.

In temperate/tropical boundary zones around the globe, the deserts have been growing since the last mini-ice age. When the temperatures rise, there is heavier rain fall in the tropics that take away the rain that othewise would have fallen in those boundary areas.

This boundary area covers Sahara, Middle East, and Arizona (and southern Cali).

What you are calling a “drought” is only going to worsen as global warming accelerates. Already, the scientists and water managers are predicting that Lake Mead will dry up by 2021.

If you think the current housing crisis in Irvine is bad, it will be a bloodbath for the housing market in Phoenix when the Lake Mead goes dry.

And for your information, Middle East used to be the most fertile land on earth just couple of thousand years ago. Almost all grains that you enjoy today originated from that region. Luckily for them, oil has provided for them what climate has taken away.

And tonye is right. When the push come to shove, coastal regions of California can get their water using desalinization, but a desert area far from the ocean won’t have that option.

So who is really the knife catcher? The guy in Irvine who is paying $300+/sqft in Irvine or a guy who is paying $150+/sqft in Phoenix?

I would say the latter.

Already explained it, Ipoplaya.  You are being dense.

CA started the housing mess.  It’s going to lead the price crash down.  People from all over the country are watching what happens there.

Duh.

ipop, Tony and CK exhibit IR’s aptly named Cultural Pathology of OC. It prevents them from understanding your point: it’s about long term wealth building. These boys espouse paying the premium for indulgence. Yeah - In N Out. Newport. The Barclay. UCI! Big f’in deal. They’re all great, but better that $500K in the bank??? Soooo many people made money, then plowed it all into a fancy new pad. Indulgence won out. Great values to teach your kids!

Given the baby boomers retirement is going to flood the markets with properties and send us into Japan-style housing price deflation for the next decade, this is another example of people who made the wrong decision in the RE run up. Take the money and run! The equity drain will spiral slowly down for years. RE will no longer go up. And the government’s plans to nationalize the housing market will only make it worse.

And that assumes $150K down for 3x income, the historical norm.

Japan style deflation. And the Fed is deflating M3 right now, and Bernanke has articulated his plan to keep doing so. Major tsunami on the horizon.

You hire a gardener for $50-70 a month.  They do all that.

I already have $500K in the bank Boston…  I guess technically that would be banks, brokers, and investments.  Why do I really need another? 

I live in a 1600sf square foot condo, can afford to buy a bigger place here in wonderful Irvine, so why not do it?  I max my 401k and set aside $10K per year for the kids college, so what’s the point of fleeing to the desert to live in the dirt just so I can salivate over my bank balance?

I think that is the actually the poor values to teach your children - chasing after a buck for the sake of having a buck…

ipop - you love to cite how rad you are. OK tough guy - why are you at such a piss ant firm that you max your 401K? I have an exec deferred comp plan where I can stash 50% of all earnings including bonuses, no limit. Being an accountant I’m sure you know about these. I make enough that my 401k contribution is 6 figures annually, before their profit-sharing contribution. But who cares? You dodged the issue: long term wealth building. If you and I both have $500K put away, and I make a lot more than you, adding an extra $500K means I would retire faster. That’s the point.

I teach my young ‘uns to be decisive, confident and hard working. Instill those principles from the cradle and everything takes care of itself.

Phoenix has a much better high tech job base than OC. I personally never would live there, but it’s loaded with $100K+ jobs and cheap housing. It’s a good place for wealth building. Up here in the Bay area meanwhile listings in Palo Alto in Gunn High neighborhood are still eliciting biddign wars for 3/1 teardowns. The Pensinsula is an alternate reality.

“Phoenix has a much better high tech job base than OC. I personally never would live there, but it’s loaded with $100K+ jobs and cheap housing. It’s a good place for wealth building. Up here in the Bay area meanwhile listings in Palo Alto in Gunn High neighborhood are still eliciting biddign wars for 3/1 teardowns. The Pensinsula is an alternate reality.”

You are full of shit.  I work in the software industry.  Why don’t you give me a list of high tech companies that have big offices in Phoenix?

Whats that?  No?  I wonder why that is?  Oh thats right because there is no TALENT there.  Yes, I said above I could move there and have a high paying job, but not because the industry is there.  Simply because I get job offers for ‘work from home’ positions.

And no, for a lot of people the point isn’t to retire faster.  Some people enjoy life and/or want to improve the quality of their children’s’ life.

OK you big shot Boston2TheBay .... I’ve owned my house since ‘87.  Hows’ that?  Do you honestly think all the money I have is tied on my house?

Listen, I was buying CSCO stock from ‘94 through ‘97.  Sold it in early ‘00.

OK, now you can kow tow to me.

Besides, I like the location where I am.  I’ve had the chance to move to San Jose twice (mid 90s and Y2K) but I passed it up because I don’t like the place.

See?  You got your goals off a bit.  The priority is not wealth building, but building enough wealth to enjoy your life.  Everything else is gravy.

Like my Acura is more reliable and hassle free than your Benz.  Which means less time wasted on my side dealing it with it.

Capisce?

My yearly tax payment is 3700.  It got that high because when I rebuilt the house they assessed me an additional 140K of building.

Someone who’s owned their house since the 70s is paying like 800 per year tax and they mortgage is paid off.

Hence, these people are sitting on properties that are worth say…. around 800K to 1.2MIL and all they’re paying for them is say… 1200 bucks a year in RE tax.

Now then, this is why you can not calculate home prices based upon income because retirees will screw up that calculation.  You have to remove them to really calculate home affordability.

And, btw, the retirees that I know do not live off Social Security.  In fact, since TR was always expensive. the retirees I know have quite a bit of money stashed away in other investments.  And they have pretty good income streams.

Even if they always complain about being on “fixed incomes”.. Yeah, right.

Someone from the Puget Sound is most definitely and expert in water.  ;-D

It never stops drizzling from above and in the fall those rivers bring it from the below. 

I got my first taste of Goretex and wool long johns from REI at the old store. 

People outside of the Puget Sound ( except maybe Norway and Poulsbo???)  just don’t understand wool long johns and a full blown Goretex rain suit.  Definitely useful in the Olympic Peninsula and at Reflection Lakes in Mt. Raineer.

To Turtle Ridge Renter,

Have you watched what is happening to downtown Chicago condo prices these days?

It is fun to watch…. example: a 2 bed 2 bath 1200 sq ft condo at 345 N. LaSalle, sold for $445K in 2004, sold for $600K in 2005, is now foreclosed, was offered at $299K, did not sell, is now on the market for $259K… might be sold (I’m not sure).

Looks like all the new buildings downtown sold their places almost excusively to flippers, 20 units at a time, and now they’re all coming back on the market.

It’s fun. But I auger it will be a lot more fun by mid-2009.

You missed my point entirely Boston, likely because for you its about wealth building.  So what if I have $500K between a saved down, 401k, brokerage accounts, etc?  It doesn’t make me “rad”.  That ain’t nothing around here…  I don’t think it makes me anything, because I don’t define myself by the amount of dollars I have.  I’m middle class, maybe upper-middle in Irvine, and happy to stay that way.  I feel zero need to parachute out of a place I love so I can be upper class in some god forsaken locale.  A comfortable middle class existence is perfectly fine for me.

IMO it’s attitudes like yours that fueled the bubble.  If you want to get rich quick so you can hit the links four days a week, knock yourself out.  Personally I can’t imagine retiring early.  I love working…  I’ll probably work until the day I die if I can.  I walked away from a lucrative position (at least for my chosen profession) in a Fortune 250 company to take a pay cut to go to work for a tiny software company.  If I’d have stayed there, I’m sure I’d be at the director level now making 2-3 bills a year with a fat bonus and deferred executive comp plan.  Why would I make such a bonehead move?  I wanted to enjoy my job and have fun doing it.  Spending my work days in countless meetings, not doing anything myself any longer, simply navigating the politics and bureaucracy of a big company each day just wasn’t worth the big payday…

I’m not knocking anyone else’s choices.  If you are into making big bucks and living large, good for you.  As long as I have enough income to live comfortably, put my kids through school, and retire if I need to, I’m a happy camper.

ipo:
you’re obviously a principled guy. Good for you. I’m on the sales side of an F100 so my job is probably not as frustrating as yours would have been on the finance/Biz unit side. Actually its a blast. I’m very fortunate. I love the challenge of leading large teams of people handling big quotas. My customer is also in the Valley so I don’t have much travel. We probably work similar hours, with the requisite email after the kids go to sleep.

I just wanted to highlight the point everyone slammed AZD for is a valid strategy IF one is pursuing retiring as fast as possible. Many people would love to golf/surf/play hoops all day instead of work. Sign me up!

25w:
Intel (major site/thousands and thousands of jobs)? Mot? Medtronic?

tonye:
We drive an early 90s Japanese luxury sedan and a company car. My wife wants a 911 for a wedding anniversary coming up so we finally have an excuse to get a sweet ride. Congrats on selling CSCO in 2K. I cannot comment on how I know, but pay very close attention to their product announcement from last week. It signifies the beginning of their next growth phase building out every service provider and F1000 enterprise network to accomodate the “exaflood” of data realtime video will generate. Buy CSCO at these levels.

It looks just like a Tuscan Villa, if Tuscany was in Huntington Park.

Seattle, I think you need to refresh your history a little.  The “land bridge theory” is still just that, theory. Although there is ever increasing evidence that there was some migration during that epoch, it is far from certain those original asian tribes made it deep into the North American desert. In addition, you’ve got your eras mixed up.  AZDavid is correct, the Anasazi and many other native American tribes, known collectively as the “puebloans” survived centuries in the desert and they were far from lush during their time. Archeological evidence suggests those cultures rose in the now Sonoran Desert around 1200BC.  The land bridge theory suggests migrations from around 16000-12000 BC. It also bears noting that the cradle of civilization and rise of man grew mostly from the African savannah and the Sinai and Saharan deserts where coincidentally those civilizations continue to exist. There is nothing lush or verdant about those places. Humans can and do thrive in the desert as well as many other wide ranging climates.

I happen to live in SoCal and very much enjoy living here. I also have the perspective of having lived in nearly every climate in this country and I happened to have chosen here. That doesn’t mean I wouldn’t live in AZ, I rather like the variety of topography Arizona has to offer. (AZ does have mountains and forests you know.) Apparently I’m not the only one as Phoenix and Tucson are continually among the fastest growing cities in the US ... still are. I think the desert can be quite beautiful and if you respect the topography, there is certainly no reason whatsoever one couldn’t live there quite contentedly. 

Let’s say we all agree to quit disparaging the place where one choses to live using ridiculous geo-centric attacks supported by faulty logic and poor factual evidence.  We talk about choices here all the time. Where one chooses to live is exactly that, a choice and not a character trait.
While I’m on the subject (and clearly off-topic on the state of the Irvine housing market) ... can we also lose the comparisons of wealth and income by way of innuendo?  Someone said it earlier, it’s precisely those “measuring contests” that contribute to the cultural pathology much discussed in these pages. Isn’t it about time we got past this?

IR
Who is going to pay to have my keyboard and monitor cleaned? As I innocently scrolled down the post the actual asking price on 25 Triple Leaf, a large volume of Diet Pepsi was spewed onto said peripherals! OMG, off the hook. What a starkly ordinary piece of stucco. You made my day!

We drive brand new Hondas and Acuras.  My wife works in Torrance ( wink?) so we make money on brand new cars.

I’ll look into CSCO.  They’ve been dragging for a while and they had a bad announcement a month ago on earnings.

I think it’s too early to buy into any equities right now.  The sinking ship is taking everybody down.

BTW, I hate sales and management.  I prefer development and technical consulting.  I’m sure I’ve left a lot of money on the table but I love what I do and I’m damn good at it.

And Greenspan nonwithstanding I get paid fine.

At the rate CSCO is buying back shares, and factoring in Chambers’ reinforcement of his 12-17% CAGR for next 5 years (meaning top line will double), they will retire all shares within the next 10 years.