Login
Subscribe
Recent Comments
- zovall on A Review of The Field Tract at Lambert Ranch
- Lee Campbell on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Kelja on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Sylvia Walker on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Casual Observer on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Astute As It Comes on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Darin on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
- Casual Observer on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
Recent Posts
- A Review of The Field Tract at Lambert Ranch
- Open House Review: 34 Redwood Tree Lane
- Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Closed Sales from 5/10/2012-5/16/2012
- Open House Review: 52 Secret Garden
- Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Paired Living with Privacy in Woodbridge
- Beige Ruth Sisters
- Closed Sales from 5/3/2012 to 5/9/2012
- Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
Categories
Archives
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- Rest of archives
Browse Homes
Irvine Homes
- Airport Area Homes
- El Camino Real Homes
- Northpark Homes
- Northwood Homes
- Oak Creek Homes
- Orangetree Homes
- Portola Springs Homes
- Quaill Hill Homes
- Rancho San Joaquin Homes
- Turtle Ridge Homes
- Turtle Rock Homes
- University Park
- University Town Center Homes
- West Irvine Homes
- Westpark Homes
- Woodbridge Homes
- Woodbury Homes
Newport Beach Homes
- Newport Coast Homes
- Crystal Cove Homes
- Corona Del Mar / Spyglass
- East Bluff / Harbor View Homes
- Lower Newport Bay / Balboa Island
- Balboa Peninsula Homes
- West Bay / Santa Ana Heights
- West Newport / Lido Homes
Other Cities
- Aliso Viejo Homes
- Anaheim Hills Homes
- Brea Homes
- Costa Mesa Homes
- Coto de Caza Homes
- Dana Point Homes
- Huntington Beach Homes
- Ladera Ranch Homes
- Laguna Beach Homes
- Laguna Hills Homes
- Laguna Niguel Homes
- Lake Forest Homes
- Mission Viejo Homes
- Orange Homes
- Rancho Santa Margarita Homes
- San Clemente Homes
- San Juan Capistrano Homes
- Santa Ana Homes
- Tustin Homes
- Villa Park Homes
- Yorba Linda Homes
Contact
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Foreclosures
Housing
- Talk Irvine
- IHB Forum Archive
- OC Housing News
- Coto Housing Blog
- Housing Kaboom
- Patrick.net
- Housing Chronicles
- Housing Doom
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Manhattan Beach Confidential
- Burbed
- SoCal RE Bubble Crash
- Professor Piggington
- Real C'ville
- Westside Bubble
- Bubble Meter
- Portland Housing Blog
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- OC Register Blog
Econ/Finance/Other
- Calculated Risk
- The Big Picture
- Economist's View
- Mish's Blog
- Matrix
- Bakers' Stock
- ML-Implode
- Eschaton
- Best Mortgage Rates
- Crackerjack Finance
Latest REOs
- $199,900 :: 3125 Watermarke Pl, Irvine CA, 92612
- $349,900 :: 10 Greenleaf 16, Irvine CA, 92604
- $439,900 :: 61 Olivehurst, Irvine CA, 92602
- $889,900 :: 14 Upland, Irvine CA, 92602
- $429,900 :: 56 Great Lawn, Irvine CA, 92620
- $465,000 :: 212 Garden Gate Ln, Irvine CA, 92620
- $329,000 :: 1006 Terra Bella, Irvine CA, 92602
- $579,900 :: 8 Star Thistle, Irvine CA, 92604
- $750,000 :: 69 Lakeview 6, Irvine CA, 92604
- $499,900 :: 84 Deermont 51, Irvine CA, 92602
The 2000 price of 92k seems more realistic for this and I predict this is where it will eventually fall to. Ok for minimum wage singles thats about it.
Quick, get PR on the phone. This baby is below rental parity, he can’t miss such a great opportunity.
Bwahahahahahaha!
Only because it is so old there is no Mello-Roos in that part of town. “Rental parity” must include all costs of ownership, including HOA; Mello-Roos or any other name, ie. CFD; taxes; insurance; maintainence. Otherwise, the tax breaks are not enough to offset costs. In this price range, an FHA with 3.5% down + closing is only a little more than 1st, last, and security deposit.
“snapshot” of a moment. The facts can change. If wages continue their downward trend, how long will rents stay up? Right now, residents of OC are spending a huge portion of their income on rent. That cannot continue forever either. Wages need to go up… or rents will eventually fall.
Renting’s edge over homebuying at record low
http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/12/06/rentings-edge-over-homebuying-at-record-low/155092/
‘Ole Jon said it, you read it, believe!
The article is not bad, but the headline is misleading. He should have touted that payment affordability is at a record high compared to rent. It’s another version of a rental parity analysis.
I am sorry (and I’m a huge fan of yours), but that chart is dead wrong. Despair is when the Mother of All Bubbles (bond market) bursts, and interest rates skyrocket to 20% or higher, which is inevitable.
Like almost everyone everywhere, you are projecting out these historically-low interest forever and ever, amen. Further 50% haircuts lie ahead when the full implosion occurs—which it hasn’t.
My articles on Safehaven did correctly call each stage of real estate deflation correctly thus far, so hopefully I’ve established some credibility by now.
Steve
If interest rates shoot up to 20% without a corresponding increase in wages, then yes, house prices will crater. Even at 50% off, prices will be too high relative to payment affordability.
BTW, I am not projecting historically low interest rates forever. I believe interest rates will go back up, and we may need to raise rates very high to protect the value of the dollar just as Volcker did in the late 1970s. I don’t think that will happen any time soon, but anything is possible.
The government painted themselves into a corner. If they raise interest how are they going to pay their own debt? What are the reasons we would raise interest rates? We are stuck in the low interest rate trap and only through implosion can we get out of it.
So I say low interest rates forever or this fractional reserve lending system collapses.
Your nuts… 20% interest rates would be financial armageddon…. Like a game of musical chairs, when the music stops… Those without a seat are screwed. (renters). Those in their homes will get to keep the free and clear because all the banks would go bankrupt or be nationalized. Another 50 % drop would put those buying homes in the mid 1990s underwater.
http://news.yahoo.com/collegians-ditching-dorms-mcmansions-155643852.html
“So many students have moved to these giant suburban homes that the university has shuttle buses to transport them to and from classes. Chang and Laird said that several other college students lived on their street and that the neighborhood was mostly made up of students.
“I guess it’s kind of sad to see all these students living in such nice houses, when there could be families living there,” Chang said, “[but] we are bringing income to this area, so better us rent these houses than have them just sit here and nobody rents them at all.”
If you ever thought that highway projects were built to relieve existing traffic, check out:
http://www.cotohousingblog.com/?p=18115
I see you still believe all road improvements are a conspiracy among land developers to increase their property values.
I never said it was a conspiracy and never thought so. It is business, as it always has been. Please do not stoop to the level of a conspiracy strawman? I have worked in the industry for 30 years, and lived here all my life. I know what I know. It is no conspiracy, just as the real estate bubble was not a conspiracy. People thought I was a conspiracy nut when I told them about mortgage derivatives in 2005. It is just about money, and a lack of interest or foresight. Don’t put it down just because you do not have the time or experience here to understand it.
And I never said it was all road improvements; more strawman since you do not have a real argument.
Look at the map. Will the toll road extension relieve existing traffic? Or? I think maybe you let your career blind you from the facts.
Three comments. I see I struck a nerve.
Road improvements increase the quality of life of the people who use the road. It’s very inconvenient to live where the transportation systems are not good. This inconvenience lowers the quality of life for all citizens. It reduces trips to stores and hinders commerce.
Transportation doesn’t add value to land, it unlocks the potential value that was already there. Land gets its value from the utility it can provide. Transportation increases utility and improves everyone’s life. Increasing land value is generally a sign of a growing and vibrant economy.
The 241 corridor expansion is a classic case on NIMBY. Right now, the city of San Clemente must endure the full brunt of all the noise and air pollution from traffic between San Diego and LA because the 5 is the only transportation corridor. If the 241 were to bypass San Clemente, it would improve the quality of life in San Clemente dramatically. The areas near the 241—like Coto—would pay the price by receiving some of the pollution that used to be dumped in San Clemente. I’m not surprised you don’t want to see the 241 go through.
Not all road improvements improve the quality of life for those who use the road, because not all road improvements decrease traffic congestion or smog or noise pollution. Some roads are built or improved only to provide ingress and egress for undeveloped areas which can not be developed unless they have ingress and egress, and the end result is they do nothing to imporve anybody’s quality of life. It is naive to think that the 241 will relieve traffic or pollution from the 5, because the 241 extension will only bring more homes with resultant pollution, waste, traffic, etc. The 5 will get no less traffic and San Clemente will be relieved on NOTHING. Has traffic or pollution been reduced by the building of the toll roads? YOu know where I work, and I can assure you, the 5 is no less congested. Neither is the 405, the 91, or any other state hwy. Name me a hwy that has been built or extended in the last thirty years in California that has relieved congestion or pollution anywhere. Forget what you have been taught or told and think.
IR - Are you aware that we do traffic counts? We count before a project and we count after. And we measure speeds before and after. Have you ever seen the counts?
BTW, your NIMBY assertion is ad hominem and displays a lack or argument. Your three points are assertions with no data to back them up, and the traffic data shows quite the opposite. But why pay attention to reality?
As for quality of life, I recall lots of “Detroit river” comments. People seem to be not very interested in houses anywhere near large roads, much less highways.
Is quality of life improved by 2-hour commutes?
Is this information current the legend in the map for the extension has a date of 2006? Is this outdated information?
Is this map current it shows a 2006 date in the legend for the extension? Is this map outdated?
You have 204 Springview and 122 Streamwood listed as comps but they are not. They are smaller studio units when 160 Streamwood is a 1 bedroom unit.
The owner should have tapped some of that HELOC money to upgrade this place. I can’t figure out why the owner thinks he deserves to list at a 10% premium over other “model matches” on the market in the complex that have been updated?
I’m betting that, if this one closes, it happens to be much closer to the 204 Springview sale price than the most recent “model match” sale price at 228 Springview.
“You have 204 Springview and 122 Streamwood listed as comps but they are not. They are smaller studio units when 160 Streamwood is a 1 bedroom unit.”
You are correct. I should have been more clear. Those two smaller condos are comp busters for the models they match. The one bedroom unit is a close substitute however, and as the tiny studios go down in value, the next step up the housing ladder will get dragged down with it.
See this article:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2070787/Wealthy-couple-live-1-2m-home-drive-Jag-claiming-benefits-years.html
This is one of the few ways that “renters” can scam the system: by abusing section 8 housing!
That one is really bad. I hope those people go to jail.