Irvine Housing Blog

“Dogfishing,” by Gerald Sussman, appeared in the April 1976 (Sports) issue.
http://www.marksverylarge.com/answers.html

Kirk reminds me of Andy Kaufman

By comp I mean similar size, square footage in Quail Hill.

I seem to recall the lowest priced condo @ Quail Hill in phase 1 was $250k for 1 bed, so there’s no way that a 3 bed would’ve been purchased for only 250k.

You could’ve bought a 2 bed + loft conversion (bathroom addition) to 3rd bed in Oak Park / Oak Creek for $250k in 1999, and Quail Hill was released after that.

Carl said:  “Very apropos, I just got an email from them [the Oranges] (I’m on their SPAMLIST) claiming that 2007 was their best year yet, even in the downturn. I find that extremely hard to believe.”

Don’t believe it.  I talked to Adrienne at an open house last summer and she said something to the effect of 2004 and 2005 were their best years ever, 2006 was much lower than 2005, and 2007 was looking even worse.

“call me for a private showing”

Is that like a lap dance?

Nope.  I mentioned our agents in the next paragraph.

Carl

Vince de Profio?

AND THE REALITY: PRICES ARE DROPPING BY 50 percent.

Using this 10 percent number is just wasting bandwitdh and missleading the public that may see the example above…

And don’t forget to blame the government for creating short term advantages to buying/selling a home: $500k every two years tax free and now a temporary change to the conforming loan limits.

This is a much better calculator. You can change the assumptions all you want.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

A couple of caveats about the calculator:

If you want to see what the rent vs. buy equation should be in normal times you need to make sure that inflation = house appreciation = rent increase. If you are looking at coastal property, maybe a inflation can be a little less.

Also, technically you should use 100% financing and assume the same investment return rate as the financing cost. In the calculators, they always assume a lower investment return than mortgage interest, but that is wrong. You should use a risk adjusted return. This is especially true for the down payment. Think about it, if 100% is so risky, shouldn’t you also expect a higher rate of return for your down payment? Think about what you would require to give some else a 2nd TD mortgage for their downpayment.

I also found the maintenance and insurance fee assumptions a little high for So. Cal. Remember, that these should be based on the replacement cost of the structure, not the purchase price.

27 Vermillion sold and is very similar to these units.  I bet it’s the lowest comparable in the neighborhood now.  I don’t know how much it sold for, though.

I contacted them and interviewed them as a potential agent to sell my home in Turtle Rock in 2006.  Adrienne was the agent on my home when the previous owners bought it in 2000.  I didn’t really like them very much so we went with other agents.  They claim to be Turtle Rock specialists.  Very apropos, I just got an email from them (I’m on their SPAMLIST) claiming that 2007 was their best year yet, even in the downturn.  I find that extremely hard to believe.

I think the volume dealers (like Tom and Barbara Nash) are probably still okay, but the house here-or-there types are liquidating.

Carl

The Oranges were around at least through December, when another one of their properties was profiled on IHB:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/12/17/knife-catcher-wanted/

I’m sure they will be joining the howling masses over at Lasner’s Blog who want to shut down IHB.  Remember, “real bloggers tell the truth.”

I wonder if the Oranges are still in business?  Bet they’re not.

Greg Oranges.....real estate agents are an endangered species.....the TRUTH about real estate is that these sellers need to go For Sale By Owner. Why should they pay a Realtor’s commission when they have little or no equity? A 6% commission on these listings is $24,000.....how on earth is a Realtor’s services worth that amount? One of these owners should go FSBO and let the other listings drive traffic into the area. If they want to get on the MLS, use a transaction broker and avoid the heavy and UNEARNED commission fees.

Another important aspect of this subprime mess that is not spoken of too often is how Realtor’s have been involved in it. Most people don’t know this but the average real estate broker also has his hands in on the mortgage. Whenever you see an “in-house” lender what you have is a lender who is either paying the broker to be there or they are giving them a portion of the profit for each mortgage sale. Real estate brokers who have these arrangements put tremendous pressure on their agents to use the in house lender. They even prohibit other lenders from soliciting their agents. Realtors like to say that they follow high standards and they avoid “steering” clients towards any particular vendor, but as a mortgage loan officer for the last 9 years I know this is a bunch of bull. I have never encountered a brokerage where a portion of the agents didn’t have their hands out waiting for some form of a kickback.......sponsor my open house ....pay for my marketing.....share your commission.....That is simply the way in it works in some circles. Just open the phone book and start calling brokerages and ask them if they have an “in house lender” or a “preferred lender” and you’ll see what I mean. RESPA prohibits agents and lenders exchanging ANYTHING of value but it does not prohibit brokers from this rule. Strange isn’t it? Don’t forget it, Realtors are part of this sub prime equation.

Run the numbers with the same example:

600 k$ loan @ 6% interest vs. a 540 k$ loan at 10% interest. 

It looks like ~12 years before the outstanding loan balances cross.

How long before the foreclosure is wiped off your credit rating?

I checked his site.  I really don’t get it. 

What point is he trying to make?  I don’t think it’s a great parody of anything, just a big idiot meandering and trying to insult as many as people as possible.  There’s no discernible undertone of purpose.

The closest I can think of is Jonathan Swift’s “A modest proposal”.

Yet, Swift’s essay was a well written, piquant piece that is more in tune with Hunter S. Thompson that this clown Kirk.

Perhaps National Lampoon’s “Dog Fishing in America” from 4/76 is closest… although I must admint that Dog Fishing was/is an extremely funny article and that P.J. O’Rourke is a genius.

I dunno, I guess people living in trailer parks should not be allowed to run blogs on the internet.

I feel like a sucker.

I didn’t THINK there was any such thing as a $925k studio condo in Chicago, even Streeterville.

I went to Kirk’s site and it’s a great parody.

He’s not a troll at all, but rather seems to be satarizing all the housing bulls. His comments are clearly meant to amuse.

If Kirk is indeed in Chicago, he had to have bought that place in Chicago’s fabled Streeterville neighborhood, where the average net worth is about $25MM. This area is comparable to the Malibu Coast, so maybe the laws of gravity do not apply here.

Kirk makes the mistake of believing that the miniscule sliver of the population that can afford this area are representative of the housing market as a whole. They don’t even represent Chicago. These people are more likely to pay cold cash for a dwelling and I daresay it’s easier for many of them to pay $5Mm cash for a place at No 1 Mag Mile than it is for the typical middle class Chicagoan to pay the nut on a $250K condominium in Edgewater.

However, if “Kirk” is on a salary of, say, $250K or so, he might have made a very large mistake and could find himself behind it on the payments very soon. There’s a hint of smugness in his post that sounds a bit hysterical- did he buy his $925K studio apt. with a “liar’s” loan that is also an ARM with a reset this year? He sounds like he’s giving himself pep talks to pursuade himself he hasn’t made the mistake of his life.

When a one bedroom is worth over $3M… Hey… my 5 bedroom home in TR will be worth a real bundle. 

In any event, my 5 bedroom will always be worth a ton more than a one bedroom.

What me worry....

But I don’t drink Kool Aid.. too much sugar.

Thank you for letting us know about Adrienne Oranges, the listing agent of 91 Stepping Stone.
Her husband’s comments here did not do her any favor either.

How about 8, but I have a big house.

“Kirk come back when you sell that studio for $500,000 in 2009 so we can laugh at you.”

LOL I’m laughing at him now.

“Buy a house and get a life!”

Seriously?  This gets this guy business?  I find it kind of offensive.  I don’t own a house, and I have a mighty fine, full life, thank you very much.

People,
Save your energy. Click on the name, Kirk, you will know what he is.

I came here to alert people to propaganda and possibly save them some misery down the road and what do I get? Petty insults. Well, when a one bedroom is priced over $3M, all of you will look back and frown upon your folly. Maybe then you will start praying and enjoy the power - wonder-working power - that comes with faith. I only fear that I have gone against His word by trying to help the less fortunate.

The surest way to tell that you’ve won a debate is when the other side starts with the name calling. Thanks for so clearly demonstrating that I’m right.

Good info…but don’t forget to mention how rising credit rates are affecting the market due to the America’s overspending on credit cards plays a significant factor in the housing market. I recommend this report on home sales that is useful…

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/rpt/HousingReport.html

-Cheers!

What does God have to do with RE values?

And socioliberalism?

I think this fellow has been stealing some Holy Water and using it to make Holy Kool Aid.  Definitely a no no… Everyone knows that the thing to drink is Holy Wine.  A much better drink.

Ever wonder why the Missions all had extensive wine making faciliites?  Those padres never drank Kool Aid and never flipped homes.  They went for the long term investment. 

Greg Oranges, I must say I’m impressed with your tenacity in reposting your strangely-punctuated listing notes here.  [BTW, “6’ splash?” That’s a lot of granite!] Perhaps it’s an example of the old adage “there’s no such thing as bad publicity?”

Wow - the comments by Kirk only make it harder to tell if he is a parody.

At any rate - I am going to see if I can link up Kirk with Jesus’ General

Wow!  I got suckerd.  Kirk is a troll.

Kirk’s post is definitely a troll job.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll

Thanks for the Quail Hill updates.  I rent over here and it’s a really nice area for families and pets.

Unfortunately it is a rather newly built area, which means every single unit was purchased during the bubble.  I think we’ll see Quail Hill values fall below their original purchase prices from the builder

God, Devil, aren’t these just different sides of the same coin, doesn’t one come without the other? Sorry I apologize, I am not from the US and not up to date on the latest theology or the current religious fad.

IMHO the link between religion and housing is very tenuous.

Real estate agents make a lot of money from the sale of houses so I guess they must all go to heaven

It’s not something that would change if the Fed lowers rates. The secondary market is determined by investors and there is absolutely no demand right now. Wells is taking a gamble by trying to get 8% because they don’t even know if they will have an investor at that rate. They might not make any money because there will be zero demand at 8% but if they did the loan at 6.875% they would lose money when they would have to pay the investor to buy the loan. Even if rates were back down to 1% it pays better than the negative returns they are seeing in the mortgage market. This credit crunch could get very ugly and there will be many more like AHM that will shut down.

There is a great discussion in forums here that has some great real time info. There are also some other discussions in which I think you opinion would add to. Hope to see you in there.

IR,

What is going on with the wackpack parade (Kirk, Oranges)..has there been an asylum escape in OC that I did not see on the news. Please block these idiots so we can get back to normal programming.

Thanks man, and keep up the good work.

Awgee: What you call arrogance I call faith. Who are you to tell me that my faith is wrong? Your intolerance won’t serve you well.

Stu: I didn’t say anything about the devil. Don’t try to make me out to be some kind of nutcase. I, in fact, stated unequivocally that there is no housing bubble and that the only people getting hurt in the market are those that have angered God. If all these people suffer is a lost house then they got off easy.

I have had some experience with Mrs. Oranges, who is also a realtor. She was the agent in charge of renting the property I am in when I leased it. I signed the rental agreement and brought it by her office where she blithely starting filling in additional items and changing it AFTER I had signed it. So professional.

Religion??? You are associating religion with the profits made from housing?

So the devil is responsible for the bubble being burst? There must be a lot of people out there who have done some bad things.

You have got to be kidding!!

Here we go with the classic “parody” smear tactic. This is typical of liberal socialfacists that get called out on their propaganda. Instead of having a rational debate, free of emotions, you attack the messenger in hopes of discrediting them so that people don’t find out the facts. THERE IS NO HOUSING BUBBLE!!! That is a fact. The only people getting hurt in the market are those that turned their backs on God. People that retain their faith in Him will come through just fine – more than fine in fact. They will turn a large profit. I’d almost feel compassion for you misguided people, but Jesus taught us to condemn those who are sinful.

Now this is truly NUTS.... to go to 8% for your prime borrowers with a down payment on a 30 year fixed jumbo.

It’s a complete knee jerk reaction.

The bank will end up screwing itself up because they will stop making money.

I mean, one thing is to stop those crazy loans, the other one is to stop making any kind of loan.  Which at 8% pretty much assures W&F will be out of the business for good credit buyers.

I have a feeling the Fed will be lowering rates by 1/2 of a percent soon.

I prefer “Big Ten Inch”.

A much, MUCH better song. 

Last night I tried to tease her
I gave my love a little pinch
But she said now stop that jivin
and whip out your big ten-inch

Sure, it’s a bit childish… but I was a teenage when that came out I still love the song. 

Dream on was too much of a chic song.

I figure they’ll have to introduce an A++ rating.. you know?  The 5.0 GPA?

So those of us who didn’t screw up (renters and responsible homeowners) get the superduper grade....

Let’s see… right now perfect credit is 800… so maybe we could have a plusperfect score of 950?  Use something like a 150 b"bonus" for not walking away with the herd.

But remember, Cramer is a very rich guy.  I should know, I use to email with him before he became famous and was a charter subscriber to realmoney.com. 

He started thestreet.com back in 96 or so.

Kirk - If you actually read more of the comments you will see that others here have made multiples of what you think you are making on your studio.  And they have done it in re and by selling and recognizing market tops.  Good luck, but I think your arrogance will not serve you well.

Which comes down to my notion that we have too many lawyers so that the US needs to lose a war that will not drag property values… the gov will get shot -there goes half the lawyers- and the laws will change -there goes the other half.

How do we punish those that were reckless without taking down those who were not?  And make no illusion even if you’re renting because if the economy goes south, we all get screwed.

I will use that. Thank you.

It is a great parody if it is indeed a parody. It is difficult to tell from his comments above if he is engaging in satire or if he is suffering from a severe kool aid overdose.

Good song to be used for a future property:

dream on
dream on
dream on
dream until your dreams come true!

Aerosmith

I think Kirk’s website (and his comment) is a parody of the right wing, ala Steven Colbert.  At least I hope it is.

Lenders Broaden Clampdown on Risky Mortgages
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118609866621886776.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Lenders are tightening standards and “raising rates like crazy,” said Melissa Cohn, chief executive of Manhattan Mortgage, a New York mortgage broker. She said Wells Fargo & Co. is charging 8% for a prime jumbo 30-year fixed-rate loan that carried a 6 7/8% rate late last week. (Jumbo loans are those too large to be sold to government-sponsored mortgage investors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.) A Wells spokesman said rates are lower on loans made directly by the bank than on those through brokers.

Click on the link to Kirk’s website. Those words were spoken by a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.

LOL!

Kirk come back when you sell that studio for $500,000 in 2009 so we can laugh at you.

???????????

Re: How free markets work

Are We at The Peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle?
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/208166

At first I was shocked at all the anti-housing propaganda perpetrated at this site, but then I read the comments. Socialized medicine. I’m guessing this site is run by Michael Moore. That would explain why you people are fantasizing about a housing “bubble”. You simply can’t stand that unfettered free markets work and have made people who participated wealthy. I bought my studio in 2006 for $925,000 and will post a comment laughing at all of you when I sell for $1.5M in 2009. Don’t get bitter over other peoples success. And as for socialized medicine, that’s worse than the socialized traffic signals jamming up traffic everywhere.

Maybe those are the wishing, I mean asking, prices.  Did he include the days on market for these listings?

“There’s an intangible sense of relief when you own a house with a payment you can make.”

Given that caveat, I agree. I would not sell my home after a 20% drop if I was comfortably making the payments on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. I think Cramer’s advice is more relevant to those who are underwater and facing an unaffordable reset. Don’t throw bad money after bad.

Quick Question aka Huh, Observation, Honest and Bill please pick one name to post comments with. Also name calling will not be tolerated. Consider this your first and last warning.

I have no idea what the point is. I commend you for trying to decipher this spam. I made no such effort.

I’m on the Board of a TR HOA and we do not have any Real Estate agents on our Board. 

Thank God.

I have to agree with FamilyGuy.

And I’m a bit surprised with IrvineRenter… after all the argument that FamilyGuy is making is that homes should not be treated as a commodity, they should be treated as a home.  There’s an intangible sense of relief when you own a house with a payment you can make.

OTOH, rental properties can be treated as commodities. 

And flippers can just go to the Hades.

“call me for a private showing”

Greg,

I’m really interested in purchasing 91 Steppingstone, as I think it is a great deal and I can’t wait to grow my equity with it because I know the home will appreciate quite a bit over the next few years.

Now, I’m a really busy guy, so can we please schedule the showing for 5:00 AM this Saturday?

See you there!

Real bloggers tell the truth, eh? Your listing has been on the market for 93 days. What do you know that none of us do about what a great buy this is?

Cheeto and CalGal, I think you illustrate my point exactly.  Neither one of you said you went bankrupt over this.  Yes I am sure it was a tremendous hardship and congratulations for seeing it through.  However wouldn’t you both admit that the situations could have been better planned for?

Cheeto, you state “(the only plan offered by my company)” Did you ever look for insurance on your own?  I did and I cover my family with an HSA plan that I pay for.  I took the time to sift through several plans to see what was covered and what the total out of pocket would be because as you have found out, the exclusions can be devastating.  The information is there if you take the time to read it.  You are correct, my family has been very fortunate healthwise but your use of term “spouting off” implies a lack of knowledge on my part and that is clearly not the case.

CalGal, I hope he made a complete recovery. I agree $20k is a lot of $$. I too am self-employed.  On the advice of my accountant I carry disability insurance.  It is somewhat expensive but we do it.  I am not speaking from a holier than thou standpoint because I actually do the things we are talking about.  We budget our money carefully to make things work.

It is positively foolish to believe that government agency can perform better than private industry..FEMA, Social Security, Public Education..etc. 

Oh, and Newport Renter: Where I live there are Fire Departments that are PRIVATE!  Yes, you pay an annual fee for fire and rescue.  The equipment is a few years old but well maintained and they pride themselves on the fact that their response times are better than in the incorporated areas.

Lastly, although I have not read it from either of you, this blog is ripe with comments about idiotic borrowers who should have known better and not been so foolish in signing toxic mortgage notes and how any government bailout would frowned upon.  Why is being responsible for your own healthcare any different?

I am not trying to pick a fight, but just like auto insurance, you cant complain if you dont want to participate.

I don’t want my wife to have to wait for hip replacement surgery for 4 YEARS like her grandmother in the UK did.

IR - Please help me out.  You know how dense I am.  As I read them, the sales which the truthful realtor cited in the above post look to me like they closed in 2003 and 2004.  Is this correct, and if so, what is the point that is being made?  That homes sold for over-inflated prices and are now selling for less?  Even a pea brain like me can figure that out.

Truth - Realtor ?  Isn’t that an oxymoron?

I do have a real question.  How many homes in the Casalon development?

There’s seven for sale, 5 are the same floor plan.  Zillow shows two tools with “Make Me Move” prices listed on the site.

Couple simple questions: home many homes in the Casalon complex these seven are in?  How many homes sold in that complex last month?  The month before?

Well, thus far it is entertaining spam anyway.

“signed IrvineOwner who is still buying BEFORE it the pricing goes UP!”

LOL!

There running out of land!!!

You will be priced out forever!!!

If this realtor can find a buyer here, more power to them…

Look out, attack of the bitter homeowner!

Dude, what are you talking about?? For those who are working and not on some type of govt program medicare, etc, I can go to any doctor I want with different pricing.  Same when I was in Asia, I got sick, you pay for great high quality service that is a fraction of the cost of the US.

Also, I’d be careful asking for socialized medicine.  My wife’s friend from Canada had to have her knee done 3 times (probably because the doctors are underpaid and overloaded), and had to wait like 6+ months for surgery, all because of socialized medicine. 

Perhaps a compromise would be best, those who are poor get it, those who are working or have $ can choose on their own.  Then again if we continue to have illegals running in here year after year, it will become a drain on our country that is going to be soon completely broke.

Anyways isn’t this blog about HOUSING??  Here’s a great link from Peter Schiff:

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNBC-7-31-07_lg.asp

SPAM

Trust me, you DO NOT want to use that French developed P O S Criteo.

REAL Bloggers Tell the Truth - all actives in Casalon!!!!!!!!!!!!

As of 4:00 PM, August 2, 2007

1 S488721 A 18 H T Q CONDO A 83 Vermillion IR QH 92603 889G2 CASA/C 3 3 3 2 1,553 2003 $699,000 78 v
2 S497537 A 20 H T Q CONDO A 47 Passage IR qh 92603 890G2 CASA/B 3 3 2 2 A 1,582 2004 $650,000 16 *v
3 P575773 A 8 H T Q CONDO A 131 Stepping Stone IR qh 92603 890G2 CASA/C 3 3 3 2 A 1,553 2004 $645,000 91 *
4 S497191 A 5 V H T Q CONDO A 25 Seasons IR QH 92603 890G2 CASA/H 3 3 3 2 A 1,592 2003 $642,000 21
5 S485936 A 12 V H T Q CONDO A 91 Stepping Stone IR QH 92603 890G2 CASA/F 3 3 3 2 A 1,553 2004 $639,800 94 *
6 S496508 A 10 H T Q CONDO A 112 Stepping Stone IR QH 92603 890G2 CASA/F 3 3 3 2 A 1,553 2004 $629,900 23 *v
7 S499303 A 6 H T Q CONDO A 63 Passage IR QH 92603 890G2 CASA/C 3 3 3 2 A 1,553 2003 $629,000 3 v

While I may see some value as an entertaining site, the author of this recent article is using information from Redfin.  The numbers do not take into account upgrades that were paid for by the original owners.  Stating that these owners have 200,000 in equity may not be accurate.  People need to be aware that these numbers are simply guestimates.  Close, maybe.  But not 100% accurate.

NO Joke and NOT spam

signed IrvineOwner who is still buying BEFORE it the pricing goes UP!

91 Stepping Stone

Award winning model****Enormous Greatroom/fireplace & large viewing Patio**Gourmet Kitchen/ Granite Island**Granite counter top with 6’splash**Upgraded Dishwasher**3 huge bedrooms suites/ bathrooms**ceiling fans in every bedroom**Designer Paint**surround sound**Upgraded carpet and ceramic tile**custom window coverings**country club facilites-pools, spas, parks-tennis cts,**Award winning Irvine schools**

http://www.vicimaging.com/vic/viewer.cfm?h=15-341-878

You sound like a moron.

Is this spam or a joke?

You want the TRUTH on real estate - contact a Realtor! - I saw 112 Stepping Stone yesterday and it is not bad - it is a short sale - good luck - Nothing compared to this one>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>You want a great property in Quail Hill - call me for a private showing of 91 Stepping Stone - it is deluxe! Best location and upgrades of any Casalon on the market. Buy a house and get a life!

Greg Oranges
First Team Real Estate
949.262.2151

I would not trust any rent vs. own calculator from any website or any organization that makes money on the transaction. They will always be biased in favor of ownership.

That’s the problem with all of the calculators.  The assumption on home appreciation pretty much skews the numbers.  You also have the rent increase numbers and the investment return % numbers too.

But, in the typical Irvine area, where you can likely rent a $600,000 home for $2400/month, at 6.75% interest, 5% anual rent increases, 1.25% property tax ( mello-roos), assuming a 0% increase in the home value means you’d save $100,000 by renting for the next five years.

Any loss on the home is gravy.

That’s the key thing to remember, prices are so distorted above equivalent rent that you literally cost 1/3rd less to rent every month after taxes.

Newport Renter - You are right on.  Some people know little about capitalism, so they don’t understand that health care is, by its very nature, not a capitalist product.  One of the core features of capitalism is “substitution.” If orange juice gets too expensive, people will drink apple juice.  Demand for OJ goes down, demand for apple juice goes up, and prices move towards economic equalibrium.  Health care doesn’t work that way.  If you need a bypass operation, you can’t substitute knee surgery just because there are four orthopedists sitting around doing nothing.  Since, in the macro sense, there is no substitute for a particular health problem (yes, I know, in the micro sense there are different treatments), health care does NOT have the features of a capitalist product.