Shadow inventory of prime real estate is growing

Feb 1st, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 08:49 AM

Rejoice !!!!! At $2250 monthly cost of ownership, today’s featured property can be purchased below rental parity.  A middle class Irvine family can afford this and little Sally and Johnny can have their very own yard to play in.  Middle class values are not dead.

Astute Observation by Walter
2011-02-01 09:55 AM

“Short Sale subject to lenders approval.”

Lets not schedule Sally’s and Johnny’s birthday parties until the bankster approves.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 10:15 AM

In the mean time little Johnny can dream of making 10 free throws in a row, and winning an NBA title in his driveway with a last second shot.

Astute Observation by Walter
2011-02-01 10:26 AM

Kids in the slums of Detroit can do that. In fact, those slums most likely give more fire to dreams then the easy living in the paradise of Irvine.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 10:33 AM

What’s that I hear?  The sound of moving trucks heading from Irvine to Detroit for hoop dreams.

Little Johnny (asian or white) is shaking in the back seat, tears running down his face anticipating his new life free of comforts but fueled by a new found hunger to be a gun slinging baller.

Astute Observation by Joe/RI
2011-02-01 04:12 PM

Sort of off topic but still an interesting observation. We recently went on a Disney Cruise and it was interesting to see that at least 50% (crude estimation) of the families onboard had gramma and grampa along for the ride. Now, one could argue that this is how the majority of families vacation together but I have never seen that high of a percentage of grand parents. Could it be that the ATM at the house no longer spits out money but many still feel entitled so they hit up mom and dad for the vacation? It was just too high a percentage not to notice. Just wondering…

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-02-01 11:34 AM

The local parks in Irvine are a much better place for kids to shoot hoops or have birthday parties.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 12:21 PM

Perhaps, perhaps you could have a better game on a perfectly manicured, police enforced, highly educated Irvine public court.

But would you get the same love oozing out of this angled down hoop, ball bombarded roof, slopped court, dual functioning arena???

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-02-01 12:31 PM

So true PR.
In certain areas, the City of Irvine will allow you to reserve your own area.
Irvine SWAT will even show up if kids not affiliated with your party wander over and enter your kids bounce house.
The small premium is worth the piece of mind.

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-02-01 01:58 PM

You two clowns should get a room so you can climax over your Irvine lovefest.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 03:00 PM

You two clowns should get a room

Preferably a room at the North Korean Towers.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 03:11 PM

Wow, I can only imagine the talent that would be attracted to the NK Towers, plenty of 10 models.  Grenade whistle not required.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-02-01 09:47 PM

“You two clowns should get a room so you can climax over your Irvine lovefest.”

I am still laughing….

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 12:07 PM

This 3BR SFR would have easily sold for over $750K during the bubble, and perhaps much higher than that. Now it’s selling a short hop from PR’s long-derided price point of $499K, and he’s cheering?! What happened to all the chest-thumping proclamations about cash-heavy FCB’s chasing all the middle-class whites from Irvine and driving house prices into the stratosphere? My, how PR’s tune has changed!! Did your broker send out a new meme or something?

-Darth

P.S. Or do FCB’s turn up their noses at any Irvine property without a 3CWG?

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-02-01 12:23 PM

A majority of FCBs chase premium product.
They want to brag to their friends back home and not suffer the life long shame attached to buying this fixer/throwback from the ‘80s.
In this vicinity, they’ll over pay in Northwood Pointe, Northpark and Woodbury.

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 12:41 PM

And the tune changes…

First, it was “Irvine is immune”.

Now, as the beasts of shadow inventory, strategic defaults, expiring Option ARM’s, and ever-descending home prices eat further into the promised land, the new line is “well, parts of Irvine are immune”.

If I were in a truly upscale locale (NOT Irvine; the next rungs up the ladder would be CdM or Newport Beach), I’d be getting nervous watching the previously-immune lose their immunity.

Quote most likely spoken recently by any given Newport Coast [r]ealtard: “FCB’s chase premium product. They would never suffer the lifelong shame of buying in Irvine. They’ll overpay in Newport Coast.”

IRVINE IS NOT IMMUNE!

-Darth

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 12:59 PM

Don’t worry, PR and ten, once interest rates collapse again prices will soar and you will have the last laugh. I am certain of it.  Keep stroking yourselves and be strong.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 02:48 PM

David, WARNING, make sure you don’t have any sharp objects in your had or within arms reach when you read the next line:

The DOW closed above 12,000 today.

Money continues to fall from the sky.  Try not to get too depressed.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 03:06 PM

Why would I care one way or another if the DOW closed at 12,000 today?  Ohhh, the magical 12,000 “psychological” mark.  Wooo, here, watch me stroke myself.  ErrEEE ErrEEE!

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 06:02 PM

Fed passes China in Treasury holdings

By Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: February 2 2011 00:01

The Federal Reserve has surpassed China as the leading holder of US Treasury securities even though it has yet to reach the halfway mark in its latest round of quantitative easing, according to official figures.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-02-01 01:12 PM

“Or do FCB’s turn up their noses at any Irvine property without a 3CWG?”

More like older homes.

Not a single 2010 New Home Collection SFR had a 3CWG yet they sold every one faster than anyone expected.

And there are more to come… next on tap, the 2011 New Home Collection… also overpriced but for some reason in demand.

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 02:32 PM

iho: “Not a single 2010 New Home Collection SFR had a 3CWG yet they sold every one faster than anyone expected.

Of course they did! They were priced BELOW the CURRENT market! They were still overpriced compared to historical economic fundamentals, but they were underpriced compared to the market price at that time. (which is still falling)

iho: “And there are more to come… next on tap, the 2011 New Home Collection… also overpriced but for some reason in demand.

BZZZZZTTTT!!! Got some examples for us? Care to share any? If demand is high, you can bet the properties are priced below the current market. The OC Register and your [r]ealtard cheerleading blog will, of course, conveniently omit this factoid as you trumpet “The Return of the Housing Market!”

-Darth

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 02:55 PM

Priced below market? Are you sure you are including the $12,000 to $20,000 per year these properties require in large HOAs, mello roos taxes, not to mention upgrades that are piled on?  Priced below market, yeah right.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-02-01 03:24 PM

Vader: “Of course they did! They were priced BELOW the CURRENT market! They were still overpriced compared to historical economic fundamentals, but they were underpriced compared to the market price at that time. (which is still falling)”

Not really. In raw square footage maybe, but if you include lot size, cost to landscape, MRs etc, a 3br/2.5 bath traditional SFR for $805k for a Sonoma Plan 1 is overpriced compared to resale 3br/2.5s in Irvine. In fact, there were multiple Portisol 3/2.5s that closed ranging from $750k-$790k in the last 6 months in Woodbury alone.

Anakin: <i>“BZZZZZTTTT!!! Got some examples for us? Care to share any? If demand is high, you can bet the properties are priced below the current market.”

Sevilla Phase 1 sold out just this last week… in one week. That’s a detached condo project ranging from the mid $500ks and up. Remember, IR has said that it’s not low prices that cause high demand. So why is Irvine in high demand? There are many new home communities in Orange County that are priced below current market but none have sold at the pace the Irvine ones have. Please explain that to me with your buzzer.

Personally, I don’t think they are underpriced, they are just easier to buy (no worrying about short sale approval, competing bids or previous homeowner issues) and have that New Home Smell™.

Luke’s Father: <i>“The OC Register and your [r]ealtard cheerleading blog will, of course, conveniently omit this factoid as you trumpet “The Return of the Housing Market!”

Easy… I’m not cheerleading any return of housing… just delivering the news. I’m actually hoping the market softens further with all this new product so prices can come down even more. I had wished that would happen with the 2010 Collection but all those FCBs proved me wrong (and hence TIC kept raising prices EVERY phase).

But there are only a limited number of buyers according to AZDave so this bodes well for more price drops in 2011 and onward (plus Lennar’s Great Park seems to be hurrying TIC into releasing homes sooner than later).

Maybe if you read the forum (it’s not a blog) you would see that most of the members still think Irvine is overpriced.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 03:40 PM

But there are only a limited number of buyers according to AZDave

Let the lemmings keep on marching in.  For their sake, I hope they are buying with cashed out bubble equity rather than their own “hard earned” savings.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-02-01 04:33 PM

TIC is top tier.
Their villages/communities are the gold standard.
The Great Park by Lennar will be the equivalent of VOC.
Look how well that turned out.

Astute Observation by Brett Meyers
2011-02-02 10:05 PM

Why do any of us care about prices today??  What is important is what is pricing when we need or want to sell 5,10, 20 yrs from now….???

If you buy now just be prepared to stay and pay, and hope you don’t need or have to sell in the next decade.  Prices will be the same or lower…

BD

Astute Observation by flyovercountry
2011-02-01 09:14 AM

I used to think that employers should have no right to perform credit checks as part of an interview process.  But the last couple years have changed my mind.

So I am curious about what other readers here would do. If you were interviewing two candidates for a job with similar resumes, and one had a default in their credit report, and one did not, would you prefer the candidate who had the clean history?

Is your answer different if the position involved handling a budget?  What if it involved evaluating vendors and productions and making cost benefit analysis?

It isn’t a matter of a candidate breaking the law, or doing something immoral, it is just a default, right?

But then an employment relationship is just business too… In an at-will employement state, as long as an employer follows their severance rules, and as an employee gives his 2 weeks notice, then all is good, right?  But most employees want an employer that has some amount of loyalty, and vice versa.

To turn the question around, if you are interviewing for a job and are evaluating a company to see if you want to work there, does it’s credit rating matter to you?

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-02-01 09:20 AM

Despite what others may tell you here, I can confirm that financial history and credit definitely factors into employment decisions.

I have seen candidates rejected due to poor credit and poor financial discipline.  Some may argue this is unfair, but it is reality.  There are ramifications the debtors will need to deal with.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-02-01 10:24 AM

This fear is the only thing keeping a friend of mine from strategically defaulting.  You just don’t want to give any reason to an employer to pass you over today.  If you have some valid sob story you can sell, that’s one thing.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 01:07 PM

I highly doubt that a mortgage default will raise too many red flags in the current environment as it can be easily explained away.  They are looking for things that demonstrate irresponsibility.  If you defaulted because you lost your job and the bank would not work with you, not a big deal.  However, if you refi’d your house and bought a dozen houses to flip and walked away from them all when the market tanked - that’s another story.

PR makes it sound like if you have a credit score below X then you are blacklisted which is hogwash.

Astute Observation by CapitalismWorks
2011-02-01 04:40 PM

The importance of credit history varies by industry. If you want to work at a reputable financial outfit you better have ok credit, and any default on any loan obligation may be grounds for elimination from consideration.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 05:00 PM

Because no reputable financial outfit has ever defaulted on any one of its own obligations.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-02-01 08:08 PM

It can definitely keep you from getting a security clearance.

Astute Observation by squareround
2011-02-01 10:31 AM

Free service: measurement of lot size

I found many mistakes of lot size in listings. And many mistakes are in public record.
For example:

28 vienne, irvine, listed size is 7950 sq.ft. actually it is 6950 sq. ft.
2585 schooley dr. Tustin, firstly listed as 3971 sq ft.(from public record) and helped the seller’s agent change to 4971 sq. ft.
12440 HAZELTINE Dr, tustin, listed at 7000 sq ft. Actually is less than 6000 sq ft.

If you are not sure of your lot size I can help you to measure it immediately using high tech.

Astute Observation by tsunami
2011-02-01 11:21 AM

I could really use this service! My wife is constantly ‘mis-measuring’ my lot size!

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 12:54 PM

Pay you to measure lot size? Google Earth can do the same with a reasonable amount of precision without ever leaving your desk. If you’re willing to actually visit the property, a measuring tape plus 8th-grade algebra skills can complete this task with greater precision. For a square lot, it’s just length times width! A $150 laser measuring tape can speed up the task and leave you with a fun toy to boot!

Are people actually paying money for you to measure square footage?!?! And to think I wasted all that time and money on an engineering degree!

-Darth

P.S. On the other hand, you can’t really expect the average [r]ealtard to perform this task for you. After all, just because the California school system gave them a H.S. diploma doesn’t mean they can do H.S.-level math. Just look at all the Californians with H.S. diplomas that can barely read or write, and these [r]ealtard’s poorly-written property descriptions make a lot more sense.

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-02-01 02:09 PM

Darth, good to hear a fellow engineer on the board.  The math skills of your average “college eduacated” adult in this country are absymal.  I would be willing to bet that most people with non technical oriented degrees would fail middle school algeba or geometry…it’s that bad!  We are going to get eaten alive by the Chinese and Indians.  They actually value technical degrees and their governments encourages people to study them.  Here in this country, engineers are laughed at.  Why go through all that hard work when you can make more money selling houses, cars or insurance?

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 02:27 PM

wheresthebeef,

True, engineers are laughed at, but not nearly as much as machinists. There’s a group that takes almost as much higher-level math as many engineers, has to buy their own shop tools, AND gets to ruin their body with backbreaking work. For a few more engineering classes, you can sit behind a desk, sip your coffee, get paid more money, and you can still walk when you’re 55. With this kind of perverse system in place, it’s no wonder that we can’t compete in the manufacturing space!

-Darth

P.S. The sit-behind-a-desk part is, of course, the raw deal for most engineers. On most days, I think I’d rather not be able to walk at age 55 than have to spend 30 years behind a desk. ;-D

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 12:56 PM

P.P.S. I missed the “free” part on my first read. If you’re not charging, I guess I don’t object to the solicitation, but it does seem pathetic that the average person can’t do this for themselves.

-Darth

Astute Observation by squareround
2011-02-01 04:20 PM

What a supersmart guy!

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-02-01 06:26 PM

If it’s a square or rectangular lot, we’re talking about a single multiplication problem: length times width. How hard is that?

Even if it’s an odd-shaped lot, you don’t have to be that smart. How smart do you have to be to partition a lot into a bunch triangles and rectangles, multiply length times width for each (halving the triangles), and add them all together? Is this beyond the ability of the average American? That’s sad if it is.

-Darth

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-02-01 08:11 PM

Your lot dimensions will rarely be exactly what you see on the deed on parcel map.

Astute Observation by Feral
2011-02-01 01:03 PM

Irvine holds a special fascination for me…as an adult, I’ve known several parents who dreamed of an Irvine home so their kids would be safe and secure; their child’s future success assured by high test scores and good schools…and as a young adult I met many kids who grew up in Irvine who so thoroughly loathed the conformity and boredom of the place they counted the days until they could finally escape “the People’s Republic” forever.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-02-01 01:11 PM

It’s always about the children, isn’t it?  It’s never about running on the hamster wheel and keeping up with the Joneses.

Astute Observation by Feral
2011-02-01 02:53 PM

Parents are drawn to Irvine/South County, approved by friends and family for making the right choice.  Local schools produce high test scorers, children who undoubtedly become winners.  The neighborhood block party is a level playing field; Dads form a circle to discuss sports, Moms debate which local bakery produces a superior cupcake.  Here comes a delivery truck…someone bought new stainless appliances!  Neighbors gather to discuss granite versus marble countertops.  Whew.

No one I knew who grew up in Irvine stayed on-moved to LA, SF, out of CA.  I recall jokes about if a garage was left open a certain length of time, parents were afraid a warning letter might arrive.  But prices remain high-people must desire this lifestyle.

Astute Observation by Sue in Irvine
2011-02-01 01:13 PM

Hi everyone…I’m just catching up with old posts I’ve missed for the last few weeks. You see I’ve been busy moving…we listed our Woodbridge 3/2 condo in December 1, went into escrow on December 20 and closed the deal January 28.

Sorry IR and Shevy, we went with a different realtor.

We’re now renters.

Yippeee!!!!

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-02-01 09:51 PM

Congratulations! I hope you are enjoying your new place and your new circumstances.

Are you still going to watch the market and read the IHB?

Astute Observation by jb
2011-02-01 10:26 PM

Congratulations, Sue! Must feel good.

Astute Observation by firendsof freedom
2011-02-01 02:09 PM

You write a check and it goes against your and there is not money in the bank you get a bounch check fee. When a bank writes a check and there is no money they call it a loan.

Friends,

Those of you sitting there scratching your heads as to why this is all happening…well I offer you this free video that will literally change your life. Watch when you have at least 2 hours.

youtube(dot com)/watch?v=fYYiv0w9Vk0&playnext=1&list=PL4FDFA323AAFE4C2D

Take notes… this stuff can be hard to understand.
Watch again if needed.
Then pass it on to those you love.

Believe me, two hours later..you will be in a much much better place.

The cat is out of the bag…it is never going back in.

Astute Observation by Jow/RI
2011-02-01 04:18 PM

Sort of off topic but thought it to be interesting. We recently took Disney Cruise and I couldn’t help noticing that at least half of the families on board had granny and grandpa along for the ride. Now one could argue that this is how most families travel together but I don’t ever remember seeing so many grand parents traveling with mom, dad, and the kids. Could it be that the ATM at home no longer spits out money but people still feel entitled so they hit up grandma and grandpa to spring for the trip? Just wondering…It was too high a percentage not to notice.

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2011-02-01 10:25 PM

Low rates prompting more ‘cash-in’ refinances

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/01/AR2011020105892.html

Astute Observation by AzRed
2011-02-05 12:51 PM

Isn’t the squatting what is keeping the economy “afloat”. They are not paying any rent/mortgage etc. and are using the extra wealth to keep their style of life going. I mean how many of these people are actually making the hard choice of using this extra cash to pay off all their bills if we are seeing rising retail sales? Not many I suspect. Doesn’t the real crash come if/when the banks are forced to deal with their squatters? And of course the squatters are forced to deal with their reality. Considering this has gone on for as easy four years now, we could be well on our way to a lost two decades in the housing market. Do we actually know how much shadow inventory there is or, is this a just another updated WAG? The utter annihilation of the industry.

Astute Observation by Julie Kinnear
2011-02-06 10:09 AM

Yes, you are right AZRed it is difficult to find out how much shadow inventory is out there. But, honestly it is about people´s financial discipline. I know that to have a regular income is important and definitely less frustrating comparing to be unemployed. I believe that everything is possible to sort out if you communicate with bank or lender. Together you can always find the right solution. I know what I´m talking about from my own experience.

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