Irvine Housing Blog

Well that explains it - she’s a blond!

IrvineRenter—totally enjoy your analysis.  The book will be excellent.  You know your material and you’ve really educated alot of us.  Much obliged, and good luck.

I fondly recall living on MCAS Tustin near where this place was built. 

They tore down nice houses with big yards and plenty of open space for kids, giving Irvine these packed-in McMansions.  People ignorant of military life look down at military housing as somehow inherently substandard.  The houses may of lacked granite countertops and jacuzzi tubs,  but they were spacious—around 2k sqft—with the biggest problems in this neighborhood an abundance of gophers and rabbits. 

Places like this are an improvement?  Those problem critters are long gone and the house packed-in so tight the only place for kids to play is the street or in front of a TV. 

If people stepped back to consider how they want their grandchildren to experience California perhaps they would of reigned in the greed of builders and local politicians throwing these ornate crapshacks together.   

Mike S.

Agree. I believe that natural stone like granite is an absolute classic and is one of the few things of value in many of the houses and condos built over the last few years.

But the black and speckled gray gets overdone. I’m looking for a different color.

But the realtor is kinda cute, so let’s give her a break:

http://www.pammanzi.com/

Nice. That is quite possibly the worst listing I’ve ever seen, and some profiled here have been real “beaut’s”.  Is it possible some mischievous individual hacked into the MLS and posted this?  Or Occam’s Razor tells us the simplest explanation is a good old fashioned typo.

I’m guessing the regulars to this blog have noticed that the bubble properties like Villages of Columbus, Northwood II and Woodbury are the ones leading the REO race?  VoC doesn’t surprise me at all.  When that tract was announced I said out loud, more than once, “Where are all the people coming from who can afford $1+MM homes?  And they’re going to build 300 of them?!“  Wow. Now I know how they pulled it off.  When the tide goes out ...

I love SD as well, although I find RB, Poway, etc. to be a little too WT/red-neck for me.  Those areas remind me of Corona…  I thoroughly enjoyed my years there.  Lived in La Jolla UTC and Mission Valley while I was down there. 

If you want a similar vibe, head on out to RSM.  It’s about the same distance to Irvine as RB is to Sorrento Valley - 15 miles or so.  Hotter in the summer, but cheaper real estate, good schools, low crime, etc.

You can pick up a nice newer place out there for $225 per sf:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1551247

Very true…. the borrowers in a complict arrangement with the banks.  Rest assured, there is no avoiding the reality of the dollars (big Ben will do what he can but, the reality is stll there).  The pull back we are going to see is enormous.  Let’s hope we are not in for the J experience (Janpanese) - 20 yrs of price declines.  I own so let’s say that I’m not fan.  It looks more and more likely all the time.  Despite all of the “intervention” rates are the same or higher….  sooner or later the credit super cycle has to come to an end.  At some point, people actually have to earn and support the debt service.  In a world with falling rates this is simple…but, just what if we end in a world of rising rates due to a collapsing dollar and global expansion….? 

The result will be significant pressures on valuations…

tonye- I agree. I’ve seen stained, sealed concrete counter-tops and they looked terrific and appeared like they would wear like ... well, concrete.
I think the best part about concrete is if you have an issue, a patch job isn’t out of the question. Infinitely customizable too.

Although I appreciate the qualities of granite, it’s become such the hackneyed joke that I’d avoid it for that reason alone.  CaesarStone is a terrific alternative.

I already got an agent.  Known him for a loong time.  Son of my late neighbors and he’s done two transactions for me. 

Gotta go with him.  I like him and he does fine with the business.  Unlike others, he’s realistic where the market’s at.

I guess the old time agent/brokers understand the market, it’s the fly by night operators that are desperate to get listings and abetting the WTF sellers.  If those agents would just go away, the market would return to sanity and health faster.

I mean, in a good market, I’d be able to sell my house fast and buy the smaller house fast and then get the 300K I need to do the rebuild.  In this stupid market I have to play dumb games.

IR, there’s one for you.  Not all “move up” buyers are looking for a bigger house.  Some of us, who’ve gone through the pain and liberation of a “rebuild” -screw remodel- want to buy smaller houses we can redo after learning from our mistakes.

Personally I love walking through a house in construction.  I love sitting down in a chair, smoking a cigar in the middle of a bunch of framed walls and imagining the possibilities.

We put travertine tile on all of our bathrooms.  It has the look of stone.  Makes me feel like a Medieval Lord.  ;-D

If you are working for one the companies located in that area the conmute is very short and there’s no need to go do DT San Diego. 

There are good companies located in that area like: Hewlett-Packard, Sony, Nokia, a bunch of companies in the San Diego’s “Wireless Valley” as they used to name it some years ago (Qualcomm being one), there are some military contractors like BAE Systems, in La Jolla there are a bunch of bio-tech companies too, all those areas are easily accesible from RB, Poway, Carmel Valley, etc.

Freeways are less crowded than here in Orange Co, and they look cleaner and nice. I love San Diego.

I found it difficult to respond to this poll.  I cannot imagine buying a house costing $1.1+ million with a $3,000 downpayment.  I guess my naivete is showing, but in that price range I really thought one needed to provide a downpayment of 30-40%.

Were I the kind of person who would put $3000 down on a home costing over one million dollars, I guess I would walk away.

I absolutely hate Corian; I do a lot of cooking, and my countertops take a beating.  I prefer quartz to granite, though.

I have a master bathroom in dire need of renovation.  I will not be installing granite countertops, but I also am not sure which surface will be best over time.

I concur, it is simply mystifying to me how not one of the “bailout” proposals (Office of Thrift Supervision “cram down,“ bankruptcy “cram down,“ Barney Frank’s proposal today, et al) include a “clean hands” provision.  Such a provision would require that the borrower asking for help be innocent of fraud in the formation of the mortgage contract.  Rewarding borrowers who were not only irresponsible but acted criminally is completely bewildering.

Instead of bailing people out, we should be reporting the income they stated they made to the I.R.S.  If they claimed the income to obtain hundreds of thousands of dollars from banks, they should also be required to pay taxes on it.

I was thinking about how strange it is that you have fans all over the country reading a blog about housing in Irving.  Can’t read about housing in central PA, there isn’t enough activity here.

That’s a really nice house.  The kitchen looks good.

I never thought people would be tearing out Corian.  I like it, but it does get torn up and might not be worth polishing.  Not sure if I would install granite, I think it’s too dark.  But it seems like it would be crazy to tear out granite.  I certainly hope it would be salvaged.  The appeal isn’t just aesthetics,  it is very functional.

If you let my boy Mr. Gunther double-end the sale, maybe I can do that $1.2M tonye.  Nah, still couldn’t afford it…

If you do decide to sell, and need a good agent, you should at least talk to him.  He’s one of the few stand-up realtors I have come across in these parts.  Provides info, makes suggestions, but let’s you drive the transaction…  He does a website for every listing as well, which I think is cool too:

http://www.californiamoves.com/default.aspx?abrand=18263

Poway and RB are damn hot in the summers and most people there commute quite a distance to work don’t they?

When I lived in Mission Valley and worked in DT San Diego, there were lots of RB commuters that often whined about the drive.

I live in Irvine and I like some areas more that others, but I don’t get as excited as other people here with the “master planned community” idea that The Irvine Company promotes in every printed material, to me the brochures and booklets are different than what is out there, Irvine is getting crowded and crowded, every new construction done during The Great Housing Bubble confirms that and I don’t see that changing in the future, only premium communities are spacious but then you’ll suffer the consequences of this density ratio in the schools, streets, etc.

I’ve lived in the north part of San Diego: Poway, Carmel Valley, Rancho Bernardo, and those places have the same as Irvine: nice weather, low crime, good schools, good jobs and right now similar homes are cheaper in San Diego north county than here.

The Y2K10 predominant style will be a BUNKER.

Yes… the real pisser is that we could only take up to 50K each.  The rest is sitting on the bond fund which is “only” up 2% for the last three months.  OTOH, the rest of the available funds are down like -10%++ YTD.

That, my friend, would be under 300 per square foot.  We saw two large homes that went for well over 450 per square foot in the last four months.

Besides, you want to move to the flats. 

1.20MIL and I carry 150K at 6%. 

It may turn out that I make such a deal, assuming of course, that whoever buys walks in with a serious down payment.

By and by, I think my price is quite fair and undercuts everyone in my neighborhood.

Prego tonye.  I am very happy with my 401k loan proceeds earning 4% at Countrywide vs. being hammered by the market…

$1M if you carry $100K of paper back @ 5%...

I’ll give ya $900K for it tonye!

OK, so people are walking… so what?

I just got an inkling of someone who’s sitting on the exact house I want.  They are in BK and holding off for two more months before the bank kicks them out.

So, that gives us two months to prepare our house for sale.  If I can collect 700K, heck 600K, I’m outta here.

We looked through the MLS and there people with the exact plan home that I want to buy and they are in denial.  They “upgraded” their homes with 10K of granite and want 100K for that.  I think when this one home hits the market reality is gonna hit some people in the face.

Meanwhile, we noticed that very few homes in my size -2700 sq ft- have moved.  That’s because people want 1.4MIL and up. 

Now we come in…. we price our home at 1.2 and we should be able to sell it.  A smaller home up the street with a very nice renovation and 2000 sq feet ( realtor lied and listed it at 2200) just sold for 950K.  Our kitchen is larger and better, our location is much better, we have rebuilt the entire house, etc… so it should not be hard to sell.

Very few homes in TR with 5b/3ba.  Very few.

My wife’s Credit Union gave us 5% on our CDs. 

Big thanks to Ipo for helping work out our 401K hedge.

I voted to walk on the 100LTV but stay on the 80LTV.

It’s more than just the equity, it’s also the times.

Why?  Simple.  Today, many people live in neighborhoods that went through a very serious bubble driven by very cheap money.  Many people are gonna walk or BK when the actual price of their homes hits.  That is, people bought into the “low monthly payment”, not the astronomical price of the home.  It’s your typical car salesman deal.

End result?  Entire neighborhoods will crash in price.  Big time.  Many sellers at the same time.  So, if you have no money in play, you might as well walk and take a seven year credit hit.

Back in the 90s it was different.  We didn’t have such a broad and deep bubble and not so many people were underwater in their loans.  The value of homes stood at some reasonable price in reference to planet Earth and so folks figured out it was better to stay and not lose money in the long run.  There were not so many homes for sale ( OK, Moreno Valley did ) and so you could sell and not ruin your credit - but leave behind gobs of money.

I guess the story here is that the Financial System got Long Term Capital Management’d out.  Their models assumed that people would hold onto their houses no matter what but failed to take into account that home ownership is home OWNERship.  If the “owner” has absolutely no sweat equity ( as in working to raise the down payment ) then they have no equity stake in the property. 

So why would people indenture themselves to a financial drain forever when they can walk out and in seven years start anew?

A no brainer.

Granite is very easy to clean, no grout to stain, it is hard “as a rock” (joke) very hard to chip or crack, like tile. Now stainless is another matter, hard to keep clean, and very hard to clean.

We put CaesarStone, which is man pressed quartz.  IMHO it looks better than Granite and wears better.

From a cook’s standpoint I agree that grout less stone and stainless steel are best.  Stainless steel counter tops are the best from a hygienic and cooking point of view but they lack the warmth that stone gives in a residential setting.

When we rebuild our next house I want to look into concrete counter tops.

Are you serious about the 80’s? I find the OC Mediterranean style so repulsive I don’t think I could live a neighborhood full of it, let alone own one. The 00’s at least went back to some classic spanish/california styles. Good floor plan and functional style = lasting value. Pasted on style = dated look in only a few years.

for best avilable CD rate, check these out:
http://bankdeals.blogspot.com/
http://www.fatwallet.com/forums/finance/682884/

best one out there is 4.90% for 12-17 months CD

I’d stay away from self-publication at all costs.  There’s no money it and it has a definite stigma in the industry.

I actually was close to this position in 82-85 or so.  We put down 21% and the house promptly went down 10%.  We liked the house, and could with a tad of difficulty afford the payments, so it never crossed our innocent little minds to do anything but keep paying the payments.

Also, tho our street was filled with houses, most of the rest of the development wasn’t.  Nowadays I would worry myself to death about it, but at that time we liked all the vacant lots for the kids to run around in and we shot off model rockets there.

It never crossed my mind that the development wouldn’t be finished.  Took quite a while, but it was.

I have a contact who is a published author with a major publishing house. I am hoping that will get the manuscript in front of the right people. If not, I will explore other options including self publication.

Personally, when I look at much of the new product out there, I see dressed up boxes. I think the 00’s will look very dated in 10-20 years. I really like the architecture of the 1980’s and the houses in Westpark; however, Westpark did not differentiate the product enough, and the sameness of the neighborhoods is a major turnoff.

I sent a little quarterly payment money in to the IRS for Secy withholding.  I felt like writing “Bear Stearns bailout money” on the bottom but I didn’t.

Actually, Bear will probably be merged and a lot of the crooks will at least get fired even if they don’t have to do the perp walk.

Oh you are going to love this one AZ:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1558108

Check out the office.  A granite-topped desk…  Raaawwwrrrr!

All the granite must have been the reason this house lasted one day on MLS.  It just went into escrow today.

I don’t like granite.

But I note that after a fad expires, wait enough time and it becomes quaint and charming.  If the execution is high quality with high quality materials.

Yup, lowered truck.  Had a 4” drop on it…  Did the drop myself in the garage.  Talk about a crappy suspension…

Had a ‘69 Camaro SS before that but the gas expense was killing me.  It had a bad head gasket and would burn a quart of oil every week.

Honesty and honor get you nothing.

Who needs things.

Don’t even get me started on the valuations of these “improvements” on the HGTV shows! The value is what the market is willing to pay. I can’t understand why people do all these improvements and don’t sell their home, but want a number on their equity gain. How about ....1 bazillion.. who cares. You’re not moving so why don’t you just put in what you want because you want it to look your way. The mentality of these people amazes me.

The more I think about it you could probably determine how many buyers had any real intentions of owning their house for an extended time, 7 to 10 yrs, by their granite color choice. The more beautiful grained granites and marbles require a more personal feel to the decor, versus the beige carpet, neutral walls and almond mauve granite tops. Not many people pick rainforest green or norweign rose as countertops because it would stand out and look horrible against a neutral decor. In the photos, most of the counterops are cut from 5-7 colors and I laugh when I see them because it is so obvious what they were doing…or they are just bland people.

Very emotional home.

Yeah, totally depressing.

Now imagine a scenario more typical of the early 90s. You have put 20% down, so you have $227,608 of your own money in the property.

That property would cost $227,608 in the early 90s.

That is the beauty of a blogger book. You start out with a built in audience/customer base.

Good point, Surfing.  Thanks.

Agreed.  I like that: “buyer stupidity”.  Unfortunately, “buyer stupidity” has allowed stupid buyers to laugh all the way to the bank for the last decade.

That’s funny, somehow I pictured you driving either an IROC Z or Vette.  Not sure what exactly a mini-truck is, is that a lowered truck?

Hilarious…  5-year ARMs are cheaper than 3-year ARMs:

http://www.mtgcapital.com/ratesheet-interestonly.html?state=ca&rs=interestonly&r=1

By definition a Fad will look dated.  A more interesting question is, what styles have remained attractive through time?  Aesthetics.  I think there are plenty examples of arhictectural design that have demonstrated persistent appeal over time.

Actually, you should answer the two questions differently. In the first case you are a 25% price increase from making any money. In the second any price increase will make you money (okay ~30 and 6 percent if you include commissions). Remember that home ownership is like an option and even underwater options have some value. Then add in the cost due to the hit on your credit score, the cost of moving, etc…. and you could get a significant (and rational) reason for differences in the response.

Personally, I would have bailed before I lost all my money and had to make a choice between future negatives (credit score) and current savings.

Thornberg says so cal will correct 40% from the high. With every day, I agree more and more.

Anyone buying a home now is asking for trouble.

Seriously?!  That is shocking, I had no idea.

That song sounded good in my little mini-truck with two 20” Fosgate woofers in my home-built speak cabinet. 

I still can’t believe I was pushing 500 watts and eight speakers in a tiny ‘84 Nissan ST P/U.  Surprised I can hear anything today…

Thanks skek.  Twas me…  I always think of that song when I drive around the Irvine side of VoC.

IR,
Can you work on publishing it by yourself to get it out faster ? do you need help ? We can pre-order !

Now, if the book sales are successful, you’ll get your down payment ahead of time ? Will you buy your dream house in 2009 then ?

I was surprised that people answered the two poll questions differently.  Seems to me, maybe you kick yourself a little harder if you’ve lost your own money, but stay or go, the answer should be the same in both circumstances.

As for me, I was one of the few who said I would stay regardless because I love my home.  If I can afford the payment, it wouldn’t matter what the house was worth or whether I was underwater.  I’d view it differently if I was a flipper.

Sorry to jump in with my legal education, but there is no such thing as “premeditated fraud” or “non-premeditated fraud.“  In legal terms, fraud is always intentional.  If there was not intention to deceive/misrepresent at the time of the contract - then no fraud.  I would just call it stupidity.

Excellent call by whoever suggested Eddie Grant!

I almost bought one of Lennar’s “budget” 1-bedroom condos for $468,000 last summer—the ones that have a stunning view of the concrete and asphalt recycling plant across from the river that was filled with shopping carts and mattresses…

And then I found this place.

Thanks for the follow-up IPO.

Yeah, I have a 5mo. CD at Wells Fargo that matures in April.
The new rate they’re giving me is 2.75%, ouch!

Not necessarily.

Every dishonest person whom I have ever encountered was an astute Doublethink practitioner.  Able to make themselves believe that they were not dishonest.

They sleep way better than the honest people.

Only people with an honest conscience can feel guilt.  If you have an honest conscience, you are most likely an honest person.

This might be a steal at this price in year 3008, or 5008?

Buster is right Dan.  VoC is built on the old base and there are disclosures when you buy there related to a toxic groundwater plume.  You are warned not to plant fruit trees and of course, never to drink the groundwater…

See the bottom of page 3 on this for the marketed version:

http://www.villagesofcolumbus.com/media/images/LEN-VOC328_M-Flyer2.pdf

I agree with you, but honesy is one single most thing that not everyone has and people who are honest have different set of priorities and they find happiness in being honest. Dishonest people find happiness elsewhere.  At the end of the day when you look in a mirror and and think about bad things you have done and good things you have done, bad things make you feel guilty.

True.  You can’t say it was pre-meditated.

IrvineRenter likes to kick around “The road to hell is paved with good intentions” - which is exactly the problem.

Our culture has adopted an entitlement mentality when comes to house prices and mortgages.  This has also been described as a “social contract”.

House “owners” feel entitled to sell their house for more than they paid.

House “owners” expect that the buyer of their house will be more than willing to take out a larger loan than they (the seller) did.

The result of this Ponzi is that when everyone is drinking the kool-aid, all participants are willing to take out a loan for any amount that the bank is willing to gamble on them.

We can all pretend and tell ourselves that we fully intend to make good on our mortgages - but the vast majority just want to make payments for a few years and then move on with some cash in hand.  Look no further than the “move up” crowd.  How many of the move-uppers pay off their house before moving up?  Any?  None? Zilch? Not many either way.

How many to go? How many financial giants are saying today things are hunky-dory and tomorrow they go down in flames. The beginning of a financial storm, the biggest we’ve seen, is here. But its only the start.

Today Bear Sterns, tomorrow?

Protect yourselves good people.

Price per square foot: $46,342 ROFLMAO!

That’s a good one!

You wonder? Has there ever been a decorating fad that didn’t look dated in a few years?

Stay under the $100k FDIC limit.  We have a sizable CD at IndyMac from last fall:  5.85%.  Too bad it matures in six more months….

I thought the no-fruit-zone agreement was to prevent fruitfly/vermin infestations. I doubt the EPA would allow these turkeys to build on toxic ground, even with 24” of “topfill”.

Buster, do you have documentation to back your “highly contaminated” claim?

Did you see Bears Sterns stock today? Down about 40% right now.

They are all dropping.

Mine is down to 4% now too.  Down from 5% around December.

The banks are pinching pennies big time.

Are we going to see 3% 6 months from now?

I never had granite before and love it.  The pattern and coloring are quite unique and make our kitchen look wonderful.  I also like that it hides spills too so it always looks clean even when it’s not.

What cracks me up is the inappropriate use of granite as mentioned.  Some of the pictures I’ve seen in the homes profiled are a joke.  It’s the old lipstick on a pig analogy…

Perhaps part of the “plan” is that there will be a certain “element” of “buyer” that will not care.

Similar reasoning tends to explain the Valley Forge “planning” that goes into building houses 6 feet apart from each other.

I have a MM account there that’s paying me 4%.
Do you think I should pull it?
Countrywide is offering 3.75% 
Gets worse from there.

Oh wow, I just caught the listing price typo.  $139 million.  Very funny….

This may indeed be a nice, albeit overpriced, house - the listing descirption makes it sounds nice - but the pictures are some of the worst I have seen in a while.  If a house has all of the wonderful features that the realtor lists in the description don’t you think she’d want more than 3 dark pictures that look like they were taken in a cave?  Buy a flash bulb, please!  If I were the owner/seller I would renegotiate my real estate commission….

It does have low 79.00 HOA dues!

I was scanning the photos expecting to see power lines planted like a tree in front of the house.
Yeah, looks like they’re on Warner, close enough I guess.

I’m sure granite is fine in terms of practicality.  It’s the socially negative connotations that turn me off. 

The derision cast at it is more of a slam of the flipperishness of gamblers who would install a granite counter top in a kitchen and then proclaim that the overall value of the house has been increased by 100K.

Indymac is toast.

Well, most people who are walking away now never intended to, so you can’t say it was premeditated fraud.

‘Nanke is speaking right now about the problems with brokers.  They were unregulated.  It’s going to be kind of difficult to go after them ex post facto.

To enter into a contract with the intention of not fulfilling the terms of the contract is called fraud.

Indeed.  Many 30 year mortgages have been signed by home-debtors whom had no intention to pay the value of the note. 

Instead, the majority figure that there would be another greater fool in line the pay it off for them.

900K for a median house?  No problem!  Not like I am going to be the one to have to work off that 900K.  Someone else will just take out a bigger loan when I sell!  Brilliant!

Sucks for the guy at the of the chain who has to pony up!

What baffles me is the continual touting of the “planned” community concept.  What kind of “planning” places residential property adjacent to enormous electrical towers? 

Crappy planning, I would say. 

Congrats on the book!!

Check out the satellite photo ten.  You can see the shadows cast by the towers that hold the lines…  Look just below the words “Warner Ave.“

Does anyone think this property in Laguna Nigel is worth $139,999,900?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1558269

ten, the power lines run along Warner right between this house and Warner.  When you open the front door and look out, your view is massive high voltage lines…

There is a comedy called “The Castle” about an australian family losing their house to gov’t through eminent domain. Of course the house sits right next to the airport AND high voltage power lines. Seems almost similar to the VoC situation….

two quotes:

Darryl Kerrigan: “Dad, he reckons powerlines are a reminder of man’s ability to generate electricity.“

Farouk (their neighbor talking about the home assessor): “He say plane fly overhead, drop value. I don’t car