PIMCO: Housing demand to remain weak, bigger problem than distressed supply

Jul 22nd, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2011-07-22 08:01 AM

Congrats Irvine Renter!

Realtors dismiss complaint against blogger
Published on July 22nd, 2011
Written by: Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

http://irvinehomes.ocregister.com/2011/07/22/19523/19523/

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-07-22 08:05 AM

Thank you. I will comment next week:

“By MARILYN KALFUS / THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

A formal grievance complaint filed by the Orange County Association of Realtors against an Irvine real estate blogger has been dismissed, the attorney for the blogger says.

The lawyer, Scott Sims, had accused OCAR of being at odds with laws governing free speech in filing its complaint against Larry Roberts of irvinehousingblog.com. But Sims says he was given no reason the case was stopped.

“The bottom line is that OCAR has completely backed down and dismissed the complaint, without any settlement agreement or anything of the sort,” Sims said. “This is a clear and total victory for Mr. Roberts.  He looks forward to continuing to provide readers of irvinehousingblog.com with high quality analysis and insight into the housing market.”

Roberts has taken on the real estate industry and accused agents of being dishonest. But while he’s been hard on real estate agents in general, he said in a recent interview, ”I have never singled any Realtor out and called them a liar.”

The grievance didn’t say specifically what Roberts — who is not a Realtor –or anyone else did, according to Roberts, who showed a copy of it to The Orange County Register.

Also subjects of the grievance — and the dismissal — were real estate agent Shevy Akason and broker Tina Rector. Akason, who works at Evergreen Realty, advertises on Roberts’ blog and pays him for referrals. Rector is Evergreen’s founding broker.

An OCAR grievance committee representative previously declined to discuss the case with a reporter, saying grievances are confidential.

Astute Observation by Chris
2011-07-23 01:03 AM

Did **reality** hit OCAR right in the face or what?

<snark>

Congrats IR.

Astute Observation by Nick
2011-07-23 08:25 AM

I’m half happy and half bummed. It would have been fun to leverage this to further expose the corruption and fraud that occurs with some OCAR members. But it’s awesome to see IR deservedly come out on top!

Astute Observation by Mark
2011-07-22 09:24 AM

I love the “grievances are confidential” line.

I think this is OK in principle, until the point when the “grievance” becomes a “formal complaint” (in writing) and is issued externally to the subject from the OCAR organization. How can it still be regarded as confidential anymore. That’s sounds dumb.

I find it convenient for OCAR that the subjects of the grievance are named individually and publicly, but not the individuals within OCAR who drafted the complaint in the first place. 

I do have a question: Was the dismissal of grievances by OCAR accompanied by a written personal or public apology?

While dismissing the grievance is a positive development, without something official or in writing acknowledging OCAR’s “error”, I presume Shevy and Evergreen and IHB have to try and do business in OC with a scarlet letter.

My sign for shopping mall demonstration was going to say:

“OCAR: It’s OK. We know. Just apologize!”

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-07-22 10:17 AM

Does anyone know what happened to the PIMCO guy who called the housing bubble in PIMCO articles around 2006?  He wrote about his own experience selling his Newport Beach home and moving his family into a rental home?  I wonder if he’s still at PIMCO and whether he’s purchased a home.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-07-22 01:57 PM

Ah, that brought back memories.  I like this quote:

“...I will likely not re-enter (and buy a home) for at least another year as I suspect there is more downside ahead for Orange County housing prices…”

We’re in this six years and counting!

Astute Observation by ozajh
2011-07-23 02:49 AM

You should do a thread based on that thread (unless it’s illegal or violates blogging ethics).  The 5th anniversary is coming up in November, which might be an appropriate date.

With 5 years’ hindsight, the comments in particular make very interesting reading . . .

(And if you frequent Lansner’s blog, as I do, you’ll know that the prices-will-defy-gravity comment crowd is even more shrill today than they were back in 2006.  Desperation, anyone??)

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-07-23 05:07 AM

The comments on that article are priceless.  While only a small snapshot of what people were thinking, it summarized the two camps pretty well.

Astute Observation by NoThereThere
2011-07-22 11:24 AM

Is this the guy, Mark Kiesel? 

He’s still at PIMCO:

http://singapore.pimco.com/LeftNav/Bios/Mark+Kiesel+Bio.htm

As of 2009, he was still renting:

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/aug/17/business/fi-bubble-timers17

Astute Observation by MovinToOC
2011-07-22 01:25 PM

Still at PIMCO:

http://www.pimco.com/EN/Insights/Pages/InsightsOverview.aspx?pa=Mark R. Kiesel

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-07-22 11:32 AM

I’ve seen 80-10-10 products used fairly regularly.  The 2nd 10% loan is usually at a higher rate 1-2% above the 1st.  400k @ 10% down is now $2500/mo.  At 25% DTI, that’s 120k in income.  Say, 10%/yr towards 401k (with the possibility of a loan for a DP), and a $1250/mo rental banking the $15k/yr savings on housing, it doesn’t take long to get to a 40k DP.

With this the 2nd becomes something like a DP program.  It should have a shorter term than the first so that a bigger chunk goes towards building equity.  It is much easier to do this at lower DTIs.  The 35-45% DTI that gets talked about here seems dangerous to me, but I haven’t tasted the CA-RE punch.

Astute Observation by ozajh
2011-07-23 02:38 AM

“Realistically, the only way an Orange County resident is going to come up with enough money is if they first buy a home with an FHA mortgage of 3.5%, and that house goes up enough that they can sell and obtain the 20% equity for the next house.”

Now who’s being infected by the REIC meme, IR??  wink

There is another way.  Buy a home with an FHA mortgage AND PAY THE MORTGAGE DOWN.  At some point the equity from that home will serve as a deposit for the move-up without any requirement for appreciation; in fact, the less appreciation the better since it will keep the changeover price lower.

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-07-23 04:53 AM

This is a healthy move-up market.  What will impact Irvine (and CA in general) is the availability of financing for DTI > 30%.  It will be interesting what the private lending market will do, especially if banks have to hold more capital for a non-qualifying mortgage vs. one with DTI < 28%.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-07-23 09:13 AM

Tot lots! AYYYY!

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-07-23 09:50 AM

walk-in closet

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2011-07-23 10:08 AM

Impeccable

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-07-23 10:05 AM

White House to tackle housing reform after debt ceiling fight (Jon Prior at HousingWire)

A spokesperson for Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) told HousingWire Friday the Obama administration has begun work on a proposal to extend the conforming loan limits, which are set to expire in October….
However, funding for mortgages outside Fannie, Freddie or the Federal Housing Administration remains barren, even according to one of the industry’s largest trade groups, the Mortgage Bankers Association…
Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) introduced a bill last week that would extend the elevated loan limits for another two years.

“The Obama administration’s reported support of an extension of the conforming loan limits is welcome news for middle-class homeowners,” Ackerman said.

Astute Observation by Soapboxhothead
2011-07-23 01:26 PM

I love it when the analysts come out and state the rather obvious. If you gather the facts and do your own thinking, not much in this paper would’ve surprised you. But it’s comforting nonetheless to see a “pro” confirm what we either knew, suspected or otherwise predicted would happen.

Higher education is becoming increasingly more expensive, gone are the days when a Cal State education cost little more than books and materials, tuitions are continually on the rise. As pointed out, graduates are emerging with greater amounts of debt and worse, few job options. Servicing debt, paying more for essentials (even a cheap new car is $14-15K now) and stagnating wages have all but decimated any savings ideals. The idea of owning a home is a retreating mirage, ever unattainable.

IR said - “The change in buyer psychology resulting from a multi-year price decline will be difficult to overcome. In fact, I believe this will be the worst problem created by the false rally of 2009-2010. Because the government meddling sent a false buy signal and burned a group of cautious buyers, many will question the real bottom when it materializes.” I couldn’t agree more and to me, this is one of the most salient points made. Its my belief a fundamental shift is underway in how people will look at their housing options going forward ... I know I am.

Renting is losing its stigma (as has long been the case in Europe) and many are rethinking taking on the responsibilities that come with owning one’s home. Maintenance costs, insurance, appliances and major repairs dull the sheen of owning a home; considering a likely very slow appreciation in value for the foreseeable future, coupled to the risk, it simply may not be worth it.

Astute Observation by winstongator
2011-07-24 04:35 AM

Saving for a DP has always been hard.  The employment situation in the late 70’s and early 80’s was not great, and my parents used a loan from my grandparents for their DP.  I actually think that used to be more common.

The change has already taken place.  It’s not the false rally that has changed sentiment though, it’s the buyers of 2005-2007 who potentially had their down-payments dissolve.  I don’t know if 100% financers who squatted for more than a year have owning look like a less attractive option.

Housing as an investment has taken a huge hit (you’ll know to get back in when you see the magazine cover below relating to housing).  With that, you’ll have more people choosing to rent, and also spending less of their income on housing - because it’s more consumption than investment.

I’ve seen this with the residents in training at my wife’s hospital.  When she started in 2003 up till just recently, nearly everyone bought a home.  Even if they were only going to be here 3 years, or had no need for a the space of a home & yard.  But, if you made 50-75k on your last $175k home that you owned for 3-4 years, why not buy?  Some of those buyers are now accidental landlords, but many more incoming residents are choosing to rent (which is the right choice).

It will take a couple years for multi-family and apartment construction to catch up with where sfr was a couple years ago.  There are a lot of condos though, that will become rentals instead of purchases, either by the original owner or investors.

9XcaJ3REvDTdqXex3sOB95UoplN8KsPCtypography_img_src_end alt=“The Death of Equities” [/img]

Astute Observation by AJ
2011-07-23 08:47 PM

Congrats.

One happy reader.

Astute Observation by Swiller
2011-07-23 10:24 PM

Congratulations on them dropping that silly action. Thanks for providing a place for us to have discourse. Best of luck to you!!!

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2011-07-24 05:30 PM

$1.2 million mansion for $10K?
http://www.bankrate.com/financing/mortgages/1-2-million-mansion-for-10k/?ec_id=m1078089

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