Open Thread 9-13-2008
I am in the final stage of the publication process. I will be receiving my proof from the publisher this week. Once I approve it, the book will be available through the publisher's website. Shortly thereafter, it will be available on Amazon.com.
I would give you a teaser of the content, but you have already seen most of it. It is scattered throughout this website in the various analysis posts. The readers and commenters on the IHB were instrumental in making this book possible. The daily feedback on the ideas and the presentation of opposing views has forged this work into an exhaustive review of the housing bubble. Thank you, thank you all.
If the sun refused to shine, I would still be loving you.
When mountains crumble to the sea, there will still be you and me.
Kind woman, I give you my all, Kind woman, nothing more.
Little drops of rain whisper of the pain, tears of loves lost in the days gone by.
My love is strong, with you there is no wrong,
together we shall go until we die. My, my, my.
An inspiration is what you are to me, inspiration, look... see.
And so today, my world it smiles, your hand in mine, we walk the miles,
Thanks to you it will be done, for you to me are the only one.
Happiness, no more be sad, happiness....I'm glad.
If the sun refused to shine, I would still be loving you.
When mountains crumble to the sea, there will still be you and me.
Thank You -- Led Zeppelin
So who is going to go under first, WAMU or Lehman? Will either one of them survive the week?
What do you think is going to happen now that the government owns Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae?
You must admit, we live in interesting times. Major financial institutions are imploding or being bailed out by the government. It isn't something you see every day...
What is hard to figure out is the delay time between when these events occur and when the general population is effected. The stock market moved up and down in hours…....the housing and other capital markets seem to take years.
It appears that housing markets move up and down over long periods of time. Unfortunately, acts of congress, like shutting down housing assistance programs, seem to accelerate the process. So does congress help or hurt the economy? Who knows.
Very cool book. I like the cover art.
The “convervatorship” of the FM and FM is just an attempt to keep the scheme on life support long enough to pull in enough knife catchers to soften the landing as opposed to full crash and burn (and also push the problem off to the next administration who will have to “figure it out”).
Our leaders have made the decision for us that instead of spending tax money on health-care, we are going to subsidize the government’s new side-business of hustling mortgages for overpriced housing. We are all now pseudo-shareholders of a giant for-profit corporation that uses our money to fund its enterprise.
In the short term, nothing is going to happen. The takeovers did nothing but inject a big pile of taxpayer money into the kitty so that the masses could consume away at it and continue to purchase overpriced houses (treating the symptom).
It is nothing more than a sleight of hand to keep the scheme going a little longer - only this time around, the company is backed by the government’s bottomless coffers.
Knife catchers will continue to buy in the depressed market and watch their down payments evaporate over the next several years as inventory remains high and competing properties continue to drive the prices down while demoralized speculators high tail it out of the real estate business and head for the hills to lick their wounds.
WAMU bank run coming to a city near you. Stay tuned.
Congratulations! The cover is interesting enough to appeal to them bubble residents that don’t know IHB. It’s amazing that you were able to go from a blog to being a published writer. (I am unaware of your writings elsewhere, so assuming).
So, will you buy a $14 mil house now that your book will bring you the down payment?
CubicZ
Congratulations! It is quite an accomplishment to go from writing blogs to writing books. I am very looking forward to reading your book.
As I write, it appears that Lehman will be allowed to fail or be sold, without taxpayer help. This could change by tomorrow of course.
Congrats on the book.
Congratulations!! Can’t wait to get it!
So after the book sells, you’re buying the first round?
-bix
Its now a race to elimination for walstreet financial firms.
FRE/FNM and then LEH in 7 days! Wow!
AIG, MER, WM, WB falling in tandem! Wow!
At this pace, by elections, we will have all trash cleared up! The best part is that FED/Treassury is now stuck and all options point to future failures without a doubt. BSC $10 seems too cheap back in March, now get ready for this:
BSC $10/share taxpayer bailout.
CFC, not so lucky got decent $7/share offer
If LEH gets below $7 which is highly likely,
AIG/MER/WM will all scramble to go belly up first as accusation costs are going down due to depleted pool of buyers!
If FED/Govt. bailout LEH, bleeding will continue for others and we all will bleed to slow painful death until crisis is over. If they stay away from LEH and not help at all, then it will bring along a whole new ballgame where everyone in the mother will grab MER/AIG/MS/C/GS/JPM by their balls and squeeze the hell out of them and create chaos and cause sudden death, weekly!
SHort term, BAC, JPM, and WFC appear good companies to lots of folks as others stink, guess what, once consolidation happens in next six months, these will be the firms holding the Alt-A Prime mortgage bag in 2009-2011, most mortgages are already 30% upside down.
Congratulations on the pubmishing by the way, great blog and information for those who have brains!
“pubmishing”, maybe one to many last night.
Just wondering if you are going to retain your anonymity in the press interviews for your book. If I tune into Good Morning America will I only see your silhouette and hear a synthesized voice? hehe.
Congratulations on the book! I really like the cover.
Congratulations IR, wish you all the best.
I vote for Lehman failing before WMu. Banks seem to be shut down of Friday’s and since WMu survived this week nothing will probably happen this weekend. The blogs, NYT all are reporting that Lehman will be sold or liquidated by Monday. There could still be a run on WMu next week.
Interesting times indeed!
Cheers.
YUP, Lehman to file for BK tonight.
But BofA acquires Merill Lynch!
What a weekend.
BofA picks up WaMu branches next week.
BofA wins!
I agree with this quote below from NY Times. Failing banks are the symptom, the issue below is the cause
Many analysts believe that for the downward spiral to be broken, home prices must fall to a level that can be supported by factors like household income that have traditionally had a strong relationship to prices. Also, the government has to determine how it will restructure Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee half of the nation’s home loans, said Thomas F. Cooley dean of the Stern School of Business at New York University.
“We have to hit the bottom in housing prices,” he said, “and we have to just sort out how housing will be financed in future.”
Nice cover. ; P
So, according to that expert scott cited, I take it that for things to get back on track, average home prices will have to be affordable to average people with average incomes?
I wish I could get paid to come up with wisdom like that, but there’s way too much money to be made with crazy schemes to suggest that buying a bigger, unaffordable home would lead to riches beyond our wildest dreams.
Nice cover art. Good to hear the publication process is going well.
Start thinking about how current news items mix with what is already in the book. I’m sure you’ll get lots of those types of questions in media interviews.
Oh, should there be some foreign currency in the cover art too? That helped finance the boom.
I discovered IHB a while back after one of your reader/poster posted a link in the OC register’s blog site. Since then, I have read the IHB almost on a daily basis. I must say the discussions and content on IHB are so much better than those on the OC register’s blog site.
I can’t wait for the new book. I know most of content will probably be from the analysis posts, but I would still prefer to read them in the organized book format.
Congrats IR…
The only thing missing from the cover is YOUR NAME! I really think you should go with IrvineRenter. Maybe show your real identity on the inside jacket.
How do I get an autographed copy?
I’m truly impressed, IR, congratulations on the book. Not surprised, though, because your blog is very readable, educational and entertaining. Will you wear a paper bag over your head at book signings to retain your anonymity?
Congrats IR. I plan to become a freelancer right after my current high tech job early next year. I’m hoping I can find out from you how I can get publishers from even looking at my book which will probably be out in a few years if I’m lucky
Anyway, good luck with your book.
It appears that the American taxpayer is *already* on the hook, what with fnf and prior bailouts, overseas military engagements, pork project bridges to nowhere, and etc. (sic:o), for a major bohica-ing. Gasoline on a fire, anyone?
Train wrecks are always best viewed in slow motion…..
:o)
Lehman going down.
Join the fray on CR.
Lehman Brothers will probably get bailed out this week, but I wonder about whether WaMu will get a bailout other than the usual FDIC protection. My concern is over all of the little goofball banks that have been popping up all over the place. After surviving the dotcom boom and bust, I wonder how many of these banks were built-to-flip jobs intended to be bought out or bailed out before anyone at the top was expected to take responsibility for their bad decisions. A lot of this happened in Texas during the late Eighties (look up “Vernon Savings” one of these days), and I’m figuring that we’re going to see a lot more in 2009.
Lehman is filing for bankruptcy tonite.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=axH8rBjWeJNc&refer=news
What I found interesting was your use of “American Gothic” on the cover. I read an article about the owner of the copyright and how she welcomes such use. Sure am glad that the copyright is not owned by Disney.
Best of Luck With the Book
@IR: “So who is going to go under first, WAMU or Lehman?“
The answer is: Yes.
And thus begins a good, ol’ fashioned bank run.
I wish I had some money lying around….I’d invest in a mattress company.
Hehehe, that’s a great cover, IR! I love it
This will be the great unveiling! We get to know your name
Congrats!
Congrats congrats IR. Love this blog!!!
Congratulations on the publishing of your book.
I hope the circulation will allow more people to enjoy your sage advise now that it’s nearly too late to “fix” the damage wrought by this financial binge.
I think us readers and bloggers on your excellent site might enjoy the opportunity to pick up a copy early on—if possible.
Lessee now…how are you going to do autographed copies? How are you going to do book tours?
Anonymity is about to be stretched to the breaking point methinks…
is there a way to be notified via email when the book is available?
I will make a big announcement on the main blog.
Why does your cover is VERY VERY similar to the book:
Richistan: A Journey Through the American Wealth Boom and the Lives of the New Rich
You should have gotten something more original or was that on purpose?