OC high-end prices fall, strategic default rises

Nov 10th, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-11-10 10:06 AM

“...Mortgages are like call options…”

I am not an options trader, by any means, but if I own an underwater mortgage, don’t I have the option to “put” it back to the bank?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-11-10 05:40 PM

Yes, it has the function of pushing the risk onto the bank. But like an call option that is out-of-the-money, if the values of houses goes up, the loan owner obtains all the upside just like the holder of call option.

Astute Observation by lee in irvine
2011-11-10 10:32 AM

“High end Orange County asking prices continue their long-term decline.”

Every high-end realtor in Orange County should embrace this!

Astute Observation by ChicagoWalkAway
2011-11-10 10:40 AM

“Most should strategically default, and many will, but what keeps from from doing so is hope.”

Sooooo. Right.  However, my good man, lest we forget about fear, a force even more powerful than hope. 

Fear of consequences, fear of loss of credit, fear of what neighbors might think, fear of the process, fear of the unknown.

For me fear was different.  For me fear was not the stomach pit, but a spoken word, a focused poem.

Fear became the mirrors image of my parents struggle mortgaged and monied with nothing left.

Fear, the pus-green stare-glare of my neighbors home.  Bought and envied for one dime out of ten of my hollow dollars.

Fear was the heavy saddled of my hopes, my fading riches.  Let my truth and tooth less dreams, speak about the loss of me. 

Fear that big hard men with shining shoes could cast my clan from my home, the debtor’s nest.  Worst yet, a home to be paid thrice before forgive of my noted promise——scary.

Fear, the seed of cowardice claims all men during our walk in time.  I am no different, and might argure that I am weaker than most, and most stupid of all. 

For I gambled and lost, and do not care.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-11-10 10:49 AM

Hope and/or fear haven’t prevented me from strategically defaulting.  We bought a house we could afford.  The price was < 3x our household income at the time.  We’ve been fortunate in the last few years and our mortgage, while underwater, is less than 2x our annual household income.

I guess I’m hoping for HARP3 (HARP applied to non-GSE loans) or an AGs settlement that results in a lower rate, but that’s not why I haven’t defaulted.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-11-10 05:41 PM

ChicagoWalkAway,

Very poetic. I may quote you in a future post.

Thanks.

Astute Observation by Alan
2011-11-10 11:13 AM

A small window in front, walls a few feet away on both sides, so the only light in the place comes from the back, looking into a similar house across the tiny backyards. Maybe that’s why there are no interior pictures - they would all be done with flash photography.

Way too much Irvine premium in that place.

Astute Observation by HydroCabron
2011-11-10 01:01 PM

It is much more of a business and financial decision for a jumbo borrower.

In my experience with wealthy, or financially sophisticated people - these being different categories with a modest overlap - an unambiguous, iron-clad contractual situation in which they legally owe you $x is regarded as a starting point for how much you will accept to avoid hassle and legal fees, weighed also against their own legal costs.

Since the mortgage, a much weaker contractual tie, has a well-defined exit path, I imagine there is little anxiety about defaulting among those with resources or experience, particularly since personal credit ratings are irrelevant to those who control corporate entities which provide personal profit without personal liability.

As for arrant poseurs, their high-end mortgages are all doomed, anyway.

Many wealthy people regard a mortgage as simply a rental with the bank as a non-nosy landlord who will leave them be.

I am not, have never been, and never will be either wealthy or sophisticated, and I see any future mortgage as a long-term lease.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-11-10 02:57 PM

Careful identifying yourself as someone who will never be wealthy.  If your household income exceeds $250K, according to Obama you’re a “millionaire not paying your fair share of taxes” - part of the evil rich!

Astute Observation by HydroCabron
2011-11-10 03:56 PM

Thanks. Had not read that one since yesterday evening.

Is there some sort of keystroke macro which spits out this tired little squeak?

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-11-10 04:08 PM

Not that I’m aware of, but if you can stop our President from repeating it daily, then maybe you’ll cease hearing its echo squeak from others. Good luck.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-11-10 03:10 PM

Wealthy people don’t need a mortgage.

A third of home owners in Irvine don’t have a mortgage.

Astute Observation by bigmoneysalsa
2011-11-10 05:27 PM

According to the census*, 32.2% of owner-occupied housing units nationwide don’t have a mortgage.

But please, tell us more about how exceptional the wealthy elite of Irvine are.


* 2008-2010 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates MORTGAGE STATUS, Universe: Owner-occupied housing units

Astute Observation by ccr
2011-11-11 09:39 AM

i would risk both statements are unlikely true:

a) if you’re wealthy, with 3+% interest rate, it’s better to borrow for your house, deduct interest from taxes, and invest your money elsewhere, as if you are that wealthy, you easily can get 4 o 5% !

b) i’d be very interested to see the statistics on this. It may have been true in the past, as many original Irvine owners have indeed paid their mordgages. However, during the last 10y, Irvine population has probably almost doubled, and all the new comers who have bought certainly have taken a loan. + many existing people with their house almost paid after 20+years have HELOCed it…

So with 1 and 2, i’d say 40-50%+ instead, while it would be great to have actual statistics

Astute Observation by Walter
2011-11-11 04:48 PM

“and all the new comers who have bought certainly have taken a loan”

I guess you are not familiar with all the FCBs that will save Irvine from market forces…

Astute Observation by bigmoneysalsa
2011-11-11 10:03 AM

http://factfinder2.census.gov

SELECTED HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS
2008-2010 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates
Irvine, CA
     
Owner-occupied units 38,520
Housing units with a mortgage 32,048
Housing units without a mortgage 6,472

Percent without mortgage = 16.8%

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