Irvine Housing Blog

Really smart analysis, Laura. Couldn’t agree more. I think your last couple of lines explain everything—it’s not like most people (especially politicians) in the States can think beyond the horizon…

If solar energy won’t work for LV, it won’t work anywhere. But I think it could work for LV. That doesn’t solve the water problem which is real and large, just the movement of water problem.

I guess the damage to kids of seeing scantily clad people (swimsuits? bikinis?) is over-rated. Are there really billboards in normal, residential neighborhoods in LV, away from the gambling strip?

The damage from the myth of get rich quick by luck and seeing lavish, glitzy, party hard and constantly, throw money away to impress lifestyle will do much, much worse.

I never let them manipulate me into saying or thinking “gaming”.

And with more states loosening their gambling laws, Las Vegas becomes less and less necessary. Illinois is close to tripling the amount of gambling in our state, including slot machines at O’hare, and a downtown Chicago casino. Illinois’ future looks pretty bleak too, but at least we have plenty of water.

Vegas is tough to read.

I still think that rising fuel prices are a threat, because the average Vegas visitor travels 750 miles one way.

But the other casino destinations are in locations which do not feature the shows and the abundant prostitution. Plus, they are either run by idiots - Atlantic City is tanking - or they’re at locations which are not really accessible: how many Indian reservations are a quick detour on the way home from a long work day, or even a reasonable weekend day trip?

Vegas has a brand, and will remain in business, but this doesn’t rule out a long-term contraction. Maybe the city will never support the number of housing units already constructed there.

None of this means that there are not bargain properties in Vegas.

I don’t know what to think.

I’ve never viewed Vegas as a place to raise a family either.  I was, however, very surprised to see so many children on the strip at night and even walking through casinos.  You can’t take a step on the strip at night without stepping on a topless pic/ad/business card which is why I can’t believe so many kids were there….although if I was a teenage boy again I probably would have loved it.

I totally disagree with you Laura, partly because I grew up in Vegas and partly because from a viable industry standpoint, Vegas has not yet seen much - if any - diminishing of their brand to suggest it would not be viable for the foreseeable future.

I grew up as a normal kid in a normal family with normal friends, and probably never thought any differently than kids in other cities.  We went to Circus Circus for games, Tropicana for swimming, and 7-11 with slot machines in it to get Big Gulps.  Any never thought anything of it.  You guys constantly ask, “what was it like growing up in Vegas”?  And I say, just like growing up in Seattle.  Or Phoenix or Atlanta.  And probably a lot safer than L.A.

I grew up in Vegas when it was much more of a “gambling” town than it is now.  By that I mean the town now has a lot more to offer outside of gambling whereas 30 years ago it was basically purely gaming.  Vegas took a long time - and not always in a straight line - of building the brand, and it is still unique in what it offers as compared to any other gaming destinations.  It’s like saying Coke has a dim future because Pepsi and RC came along.  Of course we all know that wasn’t true, and those are a lot closer to each other than Vegas is to Atlantic City, Macau, or even Monaco. 

The problem Vegas has faced in the past few years has more to do with what demographics they chose to focus on, and with the recent recession and the current state of economy it has worked out against them to serve that demographic.  Vegas is not a “family-friendly” place, they chose to get away from that 15-20 years ago.  They chose to serve the high-rollers and big spenders, because that 10% of visitors bring in 80% of the revenue.  And as economy went, so did the spenders.  And that meant proportionately large drops in revenue.

Vegas has always swung up and down based on the economy, and we just happen to be in a really bad one right now.  It makes sense that Vegas suffers more than others because of that.  But it by no means signals the beginning of the end, at least there is no indication of such to this point.  What will be more telling is in the next few years, when the economy recovers.  Will Vegas recover with it, as it has always done in past recessions, or will it truly die out as many here have suggested?  The jury is still out, but I see no indication yet that it will be any different than previous swings (just much steeper of a swing this time around).

I doubt that all of a sudden American morality takes a turn and we are all of a sudden not willing to look at babes in bikinis, shun gambling as a sin, and deem Vegas as too hot and too dry to live in.  I can acknowledge that the city may be overbuilt and should really be more like 1-1.5M, but a dying city?  I think we’re all overreacting a bit.  No, greatly.

That’s some kind of redneck.

Coincidentally, I noticed a few youngish hillbillies here in San Jose last week.

They must have read about the relative economic recovery here and decided to try their luck. Couldn’t understand a word they said though.