More Than Half of Loan Modifications Fail within One Year

Jun 22nd, 2010  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Chris
2010-06-22 06:24 AM

Is it me or have there been more Irvine homes for sale nowadays? I see an increase in For Sale homes during these past few weeks.

Don’t tell me it’s just the summer season selling…..let’s have some more juice on this.

Astute Observation by Geotpf
2010-06-22 07:11 AM

Inventory certainly has been climbing lately, although it’s still below recent years:

http://www.idealhomebrokers.com/inventory/

This seems to be happening everywhere.  However, a lot (but not all) of that increase is in short sales which may not actually be purchasable.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-22 07:59 AM

The realtor forgot to capitalize “spent” so they lose points for that. However, they did almost flawlessly interchange a “&” symbol at each occurrence of where an “and” should have been so they some partial credit for that.  The realtor also successfully mispelled “custom” exactly 8 words after spelling it correctly so +1 point for the mis-spell and -1 for the correct spell.  Overall, this listing is a solid B+.

I would encourage the realtor to swap that last ‘and’ with an ‘&’, splice in a few more commas, remove a vowel from every other word, and use more exclamation points and CAPS LOCKING as follows:

BEST VALUE AT QUAIL HILL!!!!!!!! Over 500,000$ Spent in Custum Upgrdes, Beutiful Trevertine & Exotic Hardwod Floors, Custum Built in Family Rom & Kitchen, Central Vacum & CLEAN Purifcation System!!!!, and MUCH MORE!!!!!

Astute Observation by scottinnj
2010-06-22 09:34 AM

Plus if you are going to list a $1.75m house where around 40% of the purchase price is ‘custom’ upgrades, you might include more than 2 shadowy pictures of the interior that don’t appear to highlight said upgrades. 

But to be fair the realtor, this house would only generate around $100k of commissions if sold at tihs price, heck I’d probably hardly bother either.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-22 11:14 AM

I don’t understand why they bother with all the editorializing.  The free text description could be very useful if they would not use it like used car salesmen and add a bunch of superfluous grammatical diarrhea.

Example of an effective description:
Custom upgrades including Trevertine and hardwood floors.  Remodeled kitchen and family room.  Also includes central vacuum and clean purification system.

That’s all it takes.  Short and to the point.  Neutral language and more professional looking. None of this “BEST MOMENT IN HISTORY TO BUY THIS GORGEOUS HOUSE FROM ME TODAY!!!!! Nonsense.

Why these realtors feel it necessary to get up on stage and perform the used car salesmen shtick and introduce all the irritating noise into the descriptions is beyond me.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-22 08:11 AM

I always get a kick out of these listing descriptions where they tell us how much money the seller spent on the place as some kind of a trick to make the reader overlook the WTF fantasy wet dream of an asking price.

As though the dollars “spent” have any meaning whatsoever.  Yeah, I totally overpaid for some upgrades so now you should have no problem overpaying for the house.

And how do we know that the seller really spent 500K on upgrades?  How do we know that they didn’t really spend 100K on upgrades and 400K on toys that they will be taking with them upon their departure?

Astute Observation by name required
2010-06-22 09:13 AM

quotes without sources?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-06-22 09:56 AM

Everything in this post is sourced. Where do you see quotes without sources?

Astute Observation by Alan
2010-06-22 09:42 AM

I’m wondering if the problem with the various mortgage modification programs is understated even more than what is hidden today. How many of these properties are actually 2nd (and 3rd, etc.) properties for speculation purchases? Perhaps with a spouse or child listed as the “owner”, or just outright lying about it not being owner-occupied. When they are struggling or unable to keep up payments on their actual residence, nothing except for free will work with all of the secondary properties.

Are there any estimates for the percentage of houses bought for speculative appreciation in Irvine?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-06-22 09:55 AM

If you count owner-occupants, I would estimate 99% of houses in Irvine were purchased for speculative appreciation.

Astute Observation by Geotpf
2010-06-22 10:07 AM

I guess the question would then be what percentage of Irvine houses are owner occupied (for real)?

Astute Observation by lowrydr310
2010-06-22 02:11 PM

Ooh, uh, yeah. I’m going to have to go ahead and sort of disagree with you there. Yeah.

It all depending on the owner’s time frame. I don’t have any evidence to back this up, but I would guess that 99% of buyers buying speculatively seems rather high. I’m sure there was more than 1% of recent buyers in the last 3 years who bought a house to live in for the long run; I’m sure some people are ‘speculating’ and expecting appreciation in 15-20 years (I don’t believe they’ll see any appreciation; just lots of money lost on taxes, interest, insurance, and maintenance, but that’s a different story), but they’re not the same people who thought they could buy a house and sell it for 100% return on their investment in five years.

I just can’t imagine any recent Irvine buyers honestly thinking that they’re going to cash out big in the near term on the next alleged inflation of the giant housing bubble. People buying now have to be looking at the true cost of ownership, which is near rental parity in many cases (as you point out - I personally believe that ‘rental parity’ statistic will be meaningless at some point over the next five years as rents continue to decline). This time IS different, and despite all the happy fluffy goodness you hear from the news outlets, the economy isn’t healthy and isn’t improving.

-Mr. Permabear

Astute Observation by Mike7
2010-06-22 04:40 PM

Hey IrvineRenter,

Have you seen this monstrosity?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37854402/ns/business-real_estate/

Astute Observation by Sue in Irvine
2010-06-22 10:06 AM

“Foreclosure record 6-2-10 notice of sale”.

Does that mean a bank or someone bought it on
6-2-10? Is the owner still able to live there after the notice of sale?

Astute Observation by freedomCM
2010-06-22 10:27 AM

“forth” modifications!

is that witty wordplay on ‘back and forth’?

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
Astute Observation by Major Schadenfruede
2010-06-22 12:37 PM

“Sales of previously owned homes fell unexpectedly in May as delays in processing mortgage applications hampered the closing of contracts benefiting from a popular homebuyer tax credit, an industry group said on Tuesday.”

So, let me get this straight: The popularity of the tax credit caused a surge of mortgage applications which overwhelmed the industry so that they couldn’t process as many loans compared to last year?

Okay…

Oh, and this caused the stock market to tank today?

LOL!!!!

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2010-06-22 11:47 AM

Which house is:  “This property was purchased on 7/28/2006 for $2,337,000. The owners used a $1,635,700 first mortgage, a $467,350 HELOC and a $233,950 down payment. Then, the fun begins….

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 06/02/2010
Document Type: Notice of Sale

Foreclosure Record
Recording Date: 07/28/2008
Document Type: Notice of Default”

The textdata doesn’t match the featured pictured property.

I don’ think the owner was a pro or experienced or knowledgable at gaming the system.

He’s losing real money—his own significant downpayment, $233,950 for 2 years of free rent, but that is about the going rate for renting a mansion.

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2010-06-22 11:57 AM

http://www.sbwire.com/press-releases/sbwire-47878.htm

Another extension of extend and pretend or pump and dump.  90 days more tax credit

Astute Observation by Chris
2010-06-23 01:57 AM

Until we have total deadlock in gubbermint, we’re going to continue seeing this $hite.

Expect the last extension around the end of this year (after the election).

Astute Observation by Mark
2010-06-22 03:44 PM

Inventory of SFH is up in Irvine, Lake Forest and Mission Viejo.

I’m just disappointed in the selection. Most are pretty roughed up both outside and in, and a high number are short sales.

Astute Observation by ochomehunter
2010-06-22 05:07 PM

Geithner says homeownership aid effort has limits
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE65L6J420100622?type=politicsNews

Here comes the housing dump folks, get ready

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-22 05:25 PM

The Treasury Department on Monday said more people had been kicked out of trial loan modifications than had received permanent modifications.

STUNNING!

“This program was not designed to prevent foreclosures. It was not designed to sustain homeownership at a level that would be unachievable, imprudent to try and do,” Geithner said in testimony

Just say it, Timothy, it was to help banks control the flow of foreclosures by stringing along desperate house debtors for a little while.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-22 05:52 PM

IrvineRenter, here is another Peak Buyer graphic for you.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-06-22 06:05 PM

Mortgage applications SURGE!!!  Sales PLUMMET!!!

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2010-06-22 09:37 PM

IR or anyone,

Does someone have any historical data on cure rates for loan mods over the past couple years? I could have sworn that I read an IHB post several months ago talking about re-default rates above 90%. Today’s post says that re-default rates can be as low as 65%. While very, very far from good, is there some improvement in the loan mod cure rates? Or is this simply a case of imprecision in the cure rates quoted by these studies?

-Darth

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2010-06-22 10:16 PM

It’s bad enough these folks are squatting in a multi-million dollar house while I must faithfully pay my rent on something MUCH less pretentious.

On top of it, they have HORRIBLE taste in decor. They should have spent some of that HELOC money on a professional designer.

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