Irvine Housing Blog

2002 Rollback 48% Off

The low end continues to be absolutely crushed. This tiny apartment condo is a 2002 rollback asking 48% off its peak purchase price.

Asking Price: $199,000

Address: 2233 Martin St #324, Irvine, CA 92612

So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from Hell,
Blue skys from pain.
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?
A smile from a veil?
Do you think you can tell?

Wish You Were Here -- Pink Floyd

So you think you can tell
Bargain from hard sell;
Green money from red.
Can you tell a good deal
from an equity crushing fail?
A profit from derail?
Do you think you can tell?

Is this property a candidate for a flip? An Irvine condo under $200,000. You have to think flippers are looking at it. 

Recently in the comments, autofox noted, "You can make the argument that the flippers are adding equity to the neighborhood homes when they sale the house at a higher price." After contemplating this astute observation for a while, I have come to agree -- from the perspective of a kool aid intoxicated property owner, I would want flippers moving through my neighborhood to artificially drive up prices so I can get more HELOC money. More flippers = more HELOC money. When taken in context of Southern California’s Cultural Pathology this makes perfect sense.

It reminds me of The California Social Contract from The Great Housing Bubble: 

Satire is often more revealing than detailed explanations. The pathology of a collection of beliefs becomes apparent when the natural end result of a group of people acting on those beliefs is an absurd contradiction and an obviously unsustainable state. The following is a satirical essay written from the point of view of a desperate homeowner trying to sustain the Ponzi Scheme of the Great Housing Bubble:

You fence-sitters are failing to fulfill your part of the California Social Contract. Your failure to continue buying homes is disrupting the social order, and it is causing those of us who bought before you psychological, emotional and financial damage. It is time for you to get off the fence and buy -- NOW!!!

In any social contract, you give up something personally for the greater good. When those of us who bought before you purchased our homes, we had to commit unrealistic percentages of our income to housing, lie on mortgage applications, and take out financing on unstable mortgage terms in order to do our part for the continuing social good. We made these sacrifices willingly because the benefits of maintaining the social contract are worth the price we paid. Look what those who bought before us received in return:

1. Dramatic increases in wealth through home equity. I think we can all agree this is desirable. You want to be rich, right?
2. The ability to spend more than what is earned through pro-ductive activities like work. Think of all the BMWs, Mercedes, vacations to Maui, Coach Bags, designer jeans, Rolex watches and other items purchased with home equity lines of credit. You want to double your spending power, right?
3. The ability to buy furniture and home improvements without saving or spending income. Your house should be a self-sustaining asset which provides the ability to maintain itself with perpetual appreciation. Who would not want that?

We provided all of this to the buyers who came before us, and all we ask is that you do the same for us. Is not this a fair bargain? You want the same for yourself, right? If you do this, the next generation of buyers will learn from your example, and they will be willing to do the same.

Some have argued it is our fault that the social contract is falling apart. If we recent homebuyers had simply made our payments, the contract would not have been broken. This is rubbish. The lenders failed us. They knew we could not make those payments when we took out the loans. They knew we were not truthful on our loan applications. They knew they were going to have to provide opportunities for serial refinancing of ever increasing amounts of debt. They failed us. They are the ones who broke the social contract, not us.

The tightening of credit just means you will have to make more significant sacrifices to keep the social contract. You may need to borrow money from family members or solicit larger gifts. You may need to become more creative in your attempts to inflate your income or assets. All we had to do was sign some fraudulent paperwork, but you may have to forge some documents or buy a seasoned credit line or find a hard-money lender who does not record the debt (loan sharks). It is going to be tough, but look at the benefits listed above. Is it not worth the sacrifice?

It is time for you to buy now. Trees really can grow to the sky; prices really can go up forever-if you hold up your end of the California Social Contract. To paraphrase Winston Churchill,

Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that if the {California Social Contract} last for a thousand years, men will still say, ‘This was their finest hour.'

This is your chance to stand up for what is right and perpetuate a system that is beneficial to our society. History will remember what you do. Will you be the generation that lived up to its duties, or will this be the end of the world as we know it? You decide.

Am I talking out of both sides of my face when I embrace flippers?

The people living in this complex would like to see flippers return. With a few more transactions at 48% off, few owners will have any equity left.

Asking Price: $199,000

Income Requirement: $49,750

Downpayment Needed: $39,800

Purchase Price: $385,000

Purchase Date: 7/26/2006

Address: 2233 Martin St #324, Irvine, CA 92612

My data source doesn't sort through these properties well, so I cannot track down the mortgage info. Someone is losing $197,400 after a 6% commission if this property sells for its asking price. Without the mortgage data, I can't be certain who the bagholder is. It is likely a bank.

I am anticipating yesterday's conversation will carry over to today. I will make a point of watching both threads today.