Irvine Housing Blog

Damn you, this is going to stay in my head all day… 

-bix
——-

You made me laugh this morning!  Thanks.

This makes me want to put another pin in the head of my “flipper vodoo doll.”

A great laugh.  And actually a house I’d be interested in after the 30% haircut.  Entertainment and future prospecting.  This is why this blog is so great!

Any ideas on why the Zillow assessment show $777k?

Any why the redfin links just sit there and churn when I click on them?

SCHB

socalhousingbubble,

I am not sure what you are seeing on Zillow. The Redfin link works fine for me. Is anyone else having troubles?

Here’s Zillow’s pull of the assessment (if correct)

2006 Property Tax   $12,510
Total assessed value: = $777,894
Assessed value bldgs:  $249,985
Assessed value land: + $527,909

Could they have done all their upgrades after the sale and been re-assessed?  Or is the Zillow data bogus?

SCHB

socalhousingbubble,

I don’t know what is going on with the assessed value. I checked the property records, and it shows the numbers you have listed, but it also shows the purchase for $678,000 on 6/9/2005. Perhaps my data source is not accurate and the property was flipped one already for a price nearer to $777,894? Although, I could easily see $100,000 in upgrades, landscaping, etc.

$1,139,000
Beds: 3 Baths:  2.5
Sq. Ft.*: 1,708
Lot Sq. Ft.*: 3,666
They are on what kind of drugs? Reminder: Irvine is still in the middle of nowhere.

I wonder if this seller is a former mortgage broker?  Word has it, Irvine is suddenly full of former mortgage brokers looking for new jobs.

Welcome to the real world!

FYI, word also has it, you can get a slightly used 911 or Boxter for a great negotiated price in Orange County these days.

LOL

Yikes!  Brand new homes in Woodbury are going for less than $400/sq ft…and this seller wants over $537?

Let’s see what you can get for $918,000 on the new market:

1. Decada Plan 4 @ 1,750 ($650K) and new Lamborghini Gallardo ($210K) AND BMW 550i ($60K)

2. Lantana Plan 1 @ 2,417 sq. ft ($840K) and new Porsche 911 GT3 ($78K).

3. Stonetree Manor Plan 3 @2,268 sq. ft ($857K) and new BMW 550i ($60K)

-OCR

Flipper might have cashed out equity and this is why he wants out at that price!  Good luck, for that price, I can get a decent home on hilltop in Laguna Niguel overlooking ocean

Woodbury isn’t such a great place, in my opinion. Jeez, its not like you enter and are showered with warm and fuzzy feelings, get enlightenment, and suddenly drop those unwanted pounds. Its just a new development that some people apparently think is the greatest place to live in OC. There’s nothing very unique about it; just another Irvine village.

Seriously, a profit of nearly 190K in two years? If someone does buy that place, I have some magic beans to sell them.

We need to add the $150K upgrades to the base price of $678K.  Seller paid $828K.  Lowest omparables for this home is $875K.  Assuming 6% selling cost, seller would net exactly $828K.

It’s amazing (and to some amusing) to pay close to 900K for 1700sqft in Irvine. Wondering it is savings of how many years for an average guy in Irvine.
Ignorance never finds sympathy.

IrvineR said:

“Ignorance never finds sympathy.”

As far as I’m concerned, we past the ignorance level 3 years ago for Orange County RE.  So, since this buyer bought 2 years ago, he’s can’t be classified as “ignorant”.

This bag holder is stupid, and he’s presently searching for somebody that is stupider than him.  But the problem is, the music has stopped.

now flip it good

Let’s step back and think about this.

It goes against my grain to look at a house PURELY from the investment standpoint (and not as shelter and a home), but play along with me here….

During the Great Bubble of 2000-2006 (RIP), people were rushing to buy any property because they saw that housing was not just a boring ol’ place to live, but a SPECULATIVE investment that offered a good chance of scoring some easy cash.  As seen in this example, the seller is hoping to enjoy some of “funny money” potential equity that even exceeds what most of us would make in our full-time J.O.B.S.  So as a short-term speculative investment, it actually made great sense to buy.

(FWIW, we’ll overlook how housing prices in California haven’t made ANY sense for ‘buy and hold’ investors since 1999; anyone who wanted to purchase a home as a rental in the interim would probably find their expenses wouldn’t be covered by typical rents; but I digress).

Now, the reason an investment is different from other places to park your money (e.g. under your pillow) is because there’s a reasonable expectation that it will provide a good ROI, AKA interest, in the future.  Generally an investment device that offers a greater chance of returning a profit would cost more, right?  If someone sold a stock on Wall Street that was almost guaranteed to LOSE money, would you buy it?  I’d think not…

Now that we’re past the ‘peak’ of the Great Bubble (and the sub-prime “free money” spigot has been shut down since Mar 07, so there’s little chance suicidal lenders will step forward to fan the flames of the suicidal buyers any further), how exactly does the price above make ANY sense?  Has this seller/flipper NOT read the headlines for the past few months?

Because over the short-term (next 5 to 10 years), the odds of losing money here is great: so why exactly would I give him anywhere close to that asking price?  Just so he could gain that fat “equity”?  Why would I buy a leaky balloon that would allow my “equity” to be eaten alive, just for me to get “upside-down” in MY mortgage?  That home will be an equity black hole: money would go in, but it won’t be coming back out anytime soon….

But that raises the question: at what price does buying that house make any sense?  Oh, yeah: now we’re back to asking about the fundamentals, like opportunity costs, e.g. the cost of the rent vs. own calculation, etc.

Only 20 something thousand dollars for the model home. I would rather have the model.

IR, they’re growing greedberries in the backyard.  And eating them.

Mine wants some 20% over comps.

This guy made me laugh:

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/estimated_value.jsp?listing_num=S481429&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=ck65j265&source=SOCALMLS

This smart fliper wants to make 230K in less than 4 months

i don’t know where you are getting your numbers, but the seller paid $760,000 in 2005. the seller bought in Phase I and that was the going rate for the few Plan Ones available. It also seems like they upgraded quite a bit and spent some on landscaping. Does not seem like it is quite a flip.

Holy crap, milk just came flying out of my nose when I read this post!

Damn it, and I loved that Devo video with the Asia lady and the whip cracking…

This flipper is going down.  No one is going to pay that price, unless they are stoned…

hi all.

87 days and still on the market.  Even after reducing to $865,000.

How far is this from Portola Springs?  Can’t you basically buy this there for the 600s?

My bad.  that’s the $1,030,000 neighbors house that is for sale which has a comp for resale in Portola Springs for $723,000.  you can get new from the builder cheaper.

It’s what, 2 miles down the road.

The I want $1,030,000.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=779181

The I want $723,000.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=808710

This home is in short sale now for those who wants to purchase distressed properties.

Thanks for the update, NIR, helping to tie up loose ends.  It’s always nice to follow these listings to their conclusion (although some will be painful, no doubt).

Wow, unwinding to a short sale in less than 3 months: that didn’t take too long, huh? 

PS don’t want to quibble here, but the property isn’t “distressed”: it’s just as content and sedate as any inanimate object could be!  I think the more apt description is that the FAILED FLIPPER is distressed, no doubt financially and emotionally! 

Let this example serve as a warning to anyone else who’s sitting on a property they overpaid for, but their ego won’t allow them to attempt to list and sell at a loss earlier in the process….  You’ve GOT to cut the price NOW, and cut the dramatically EARLY in the process!

Even that advice is NO guaranteee that you’ll locate a buyer in this market, but it sure beats asking too much and insulting any potential buyer as if they’re unaware of the market climate in June, 2007!  The few people who are buying now won’t even bother with delusional sellers…  Let the seller keep and choke on their beloved properties, if they want it so badly!  There’s plenty more out there to choose from….

Wait too long to sell, and the property runs the risk of going back to the bank as a foreclosure, or as a short sale, with damaged credit and lost equity in it’s wake.  One way or another, it’ll be ending badly for the greedy and distressed who are out of touch with reality (and want to bury their heads in the sand like an ostrich)....

Irvine Renter,

Thanks (belatedly) for another great post.  My wife and I toured this home.  It’s immaculate, but not worth $865k when you get significantly more for your money at Campanile in Northwood.  The Campanile models are brand new and also from California Pacific Homes.

We also noticed that starting Fall 2007, California Pacific Homes are building Andalucia in Woodbury.  That means the greedy Portisol flippers are going to be in worse trouble soon.

Does anyone have information about Andalucia?  I talked to a sales agent at Campanile, and she said that Campanile’s model 2 would be available at Andalucia but didn’t know about the other models.

This is halarious!

I drove from Los Angeles on a Sunday to view this particular home and a few others.  Two weeks later we went back.  Our realtor did show us the history of this particular home and in the end, we thought they were asking way, way too much money.  As it turned out, they were desperate.  We got contacted twice by their agent to ask us what, to our mind, was the reason we didn’t make an offer.  When we told the agent at the second showing that we believed the home simply wasnt worth that much, she asked us to put it in writing so she could show the owners.  We declined to get into their business that much.  I was wondering what happened with this home.