Login
Subscribe
Recent Comments
- Lee Campbell on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Kelja on Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Sylvia Walker on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Casual Observer on Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Astute As It Comes on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Darin on Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Sylvia Walker on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
- Casual Observer on Investors Are Busy in Irvine's Low-End Housing Market
- irvine_home_owner on Tustin, but Irvine Schools
Recent Posts
- Open House Review: 34 Redwood Tree Lane
- Uncovering the History of the Secret Garden
- Closed Sales from 5/10/2012-5/16/2012
- Open House Review: 52 Secret Garden
- Irvine Housing by the Numbers - May 2012 Update
- Paired Living with Privacy in Woodbridge
- Beige Ruth Sisters
- Closed Sales from 5/3/2012 to 5/9/2012
- Open House Review: 35 Bella Rosa
- Investors Are Busy in Irvine’s Low-End Housing Market
Categories
Archives
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- Rest of archives
Browse Homes
Irvine Homes
- Airport Area Homes
- El Camino Real Homes
- Northpark Homes
- Northwood Homes
- Oak Creek Homes
- Orangetree Homes
- Portola Springs Homes
- Quaill Hill Homes
- Rancho San Joaquin Homes
- Turtle Ridge Homes
- Turtle Rock Homes
- University Park
- University Town Center Homes
- West Irvine Homes
- Westpark Homes
- Woodbridge Homes
- Woodbury Homes
Newport Beach Homes
- Newport Coast Homes
- Crystal Cove Homes
- Corona Del Mar / Spyglass
- East Bluff / Harbor View Homes
- Lower Newport Bay / Balboa Island
- Balboa Peninsula Homes
- West Bay / Santa Ana Heights
- West Newport / Lido Homes
Other Cities
- Aliso Viejo Homes
- Anaheim Hills Homes
- Brea Homes
- Costa Mesa Homes
- Coto de Caza Homes
- Dana Point Homes
- Huntington Beach Homes
- Ladera Ranch Homes
- Laguna Beach Homes
- Laguna Hills Homes
- Laguna Niguel Homes
- Lake Forest Homes
- Mission Viejo Homes
- Orange Homes
- Rancho Santa Margarita Homes
- San Clemente Homes
- San Juan Capistrano Homes
- Santa Ana Homes
- Tustin Homes
- Villa Park Homes
- Yorba Linda Homes
Contact
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)
Foreclosures
Housing
- Talk Irvine
- IHB Forum Archive
- OC Housing News
- Coto Housing Blog
- Housing Kaboom
- Patrick.net
- Housing Chronicles
- Housing Doom
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Manhattan Beach Confidential
- Burbed
- SoCal RE Bubble Crash
- Professor Piggington
- Real C'ville
- Westside Bubble
- Bubble Meter
- Portland Housing Blog
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- OC Register Blog
Econ/Finance/Other
- Calculated Risk
- The Big Picture
- Economist's View
- Mish's Blog
- Matrix
- Bakers' Stock
- ML-Implode
- Eschaton
- Best Mortgage Rates
- Crackerjack Finance
Latest REOs
- $199,900 :: 3125 Watermarke Pl, Irvine CA, 92612
- $349,900 :: 10 Greenleaf 16, Irvine CA, 92604
- $439,900 :: 61 Olivehurst, Irvine CA, 92602
- $889,900 :: 14 Upland, Irvine CA, 92602
- $429,900 :: 56 Great Lawn, Irvine CA, 92620
- $465,000 :: 212 Garden Gate Ln, Irvine CA, 92620
- $329,000 :: 1006 Terra Bella, Irvine CA, 92602
- $579,900 :: 8 Star Thistle, Irvine CA, 92604
- $398,900 :: 191 Lockford, Irvine CA, 92602
- $750,000 :: 69 Lakeview 6, Irvine CA, 92604
The massive 40%+ off is no longer an inland phenomenon.
Jim Klinge ( http://www.bubbleinfo.com/ ) keeps a detailed data sheet on the 60 Deutsche REOs in Oceanside currently. The list prices are now 43% down from previous sale prices.
It’s worth checking it out. Jim has done great work in the north SD county.
Many of the Oceanside REOs are being sold to investors at GRM of 120-140.
What happened to all of bulls on here who said that they would start buying up places like these at 400K?
Now’s your big chance! Off you go!
A year ago the real estate bulls or guru made big talks about buying up everything if prices were to drop 20% or 30%. Well most of them are not because they are not as rich as they thought once the bubbly equity they had went 20% away.
Many of them finally realize that they can not afford their own home on earned income.
My maximum offer on this place is 200K (which I still would not pay for this tiny apartment). It would sell for 130K in Phoenix.
Wow, AZ offers more than rental equivalent.
Lets see, 1 bdrm + den gets what $1400/month. Subtract $400 association dues and mutlipy by 160 gives you $160k.
That’s the thing, isn’t it.
The rental rate in PHX for a 1+d is (from cl phx):
Aug 22 - $920 / 1br - $899 / 1br - Townhome + Den + Attached Garage - - (N. Scottsdale)
So $130k in PHX is 160xGRM
And how long will rents in Irvine for a 1+d stay at $1400? for a 30 year old condo? Not long, I bet
Woah, I’m turning into a bull.
I said 200K to avoid the blog flog and humor the sacred land enthusiasts. In my defense, I did say that I would not even pay that much.
$1400? Sorry but if the inside isn’t a rat hole you could rent this place for $1600-1700/mo.
Just think what will be on tap for the housing market in a year from now. With the economy sinking deeper and deeper into the toilet, real estate prices will surely sink to even lower depths. The gloom sayers who have been predicting price drops to 2002 levels may be right on.
i doubt you will see 2002 prices in irvine. for example 2 Shelby is foreclosed and listed at 540 something, it has 5-6 offers and the bank has not accepted any.
You won’t see them this year, but the price decline has a lot more time to play itself out.
We’re at rock bottom prices now. This dip in prices was simply an irrational panic caused by sites like this one. In a year or two from now people will be wondering how houses could have been so cheap. They’re not making any more land you know.
4 for 4.
WTF is with this description? Chateaux Condo? plural castle condo? That doesn’t even make sense. And how on earth is the style “Craftsman”? Do these people just string words together that sound good?
“2nd bedroom is a den”
A den is NOT a bedroom, this apartment is either a 1 bdrm + den or 2 bdrm. Saying it’s a 2 bdrm when it’s not is false advertising.
No interior pics, must be pretty bad inside.
$400/month association dues, takes a big chunk out of your rental breakeven value.
Finally, seems like it has to be a short sale. Just how does the owner think she’s going to get the FDIC to sign off on a short?
This will be in foreclosure shortly.
To me, this is the most salient part of this post:
“and IndyMac (now us taxpayers) will be losing the rest”
The FDIC just announced that they will write down mortgages & interest rates to what people can afford. http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/20/real_estate/fdic_indymac_mods/index.htm?postversion=2008082017
If even this won’t stop FC/shorts, then how can anyone believe that prices won’t be in total freefall?
The FDIC just announced that they will write down mortgages & interest rates to what people can afford.
Does that mean negative interest rate mortgages are around the corner?
LMAO!!!!
That will be a product “innovation” for the next housing bubble. It will be called the “pay you” loan. It will be an offshoot of the reverse mortgage where the interest is added to the balance each month plus the owner will be given a cash payment equal to the projected appreciation minus the added interest. That way homeowners will not have to mess around with HELOCs, they will receive all their equity each month as cash. This will be widely regarded as a safe lending program because real estate always goes up.
it’s scary that one can actually see a banker/speculator/investor ready to dive into this scenario.
LOL! The owner sleeping in a box is a nice touch.
hehe, perfect.
For $400/mo in association dues I better get a wine tasting every week. Oh, and I want a battery operated pee-wee fan for air conditioning and my cardboard house absolutely must be painted mauve!
in french “eau” and eaux” and pronounced the same and mean the same thing. “Geaux LSU TIgers”
Its like Olive Garden Restaurant
and Olive Garden Restaurante
But yes no matter how you spell it its the height of tackiness.
Ou Cotrere, “eau” is singular, “eaux” is plural. Using “Geaux Tigers” as an example is not appropriate (“Geaux” is not even a word—French or English). The proper French phrase would be “Allez les Tigres”.
IR - what kind of loan did she take out? I am guessing it was some sort of adjustable.
It was an Option ARM with a 0.99% teaser rate. It is the first I have seen actually less than 1%.
The option ARM is driving the sale of this property. I don’t want to keep harping this point but people who take fixed loans and plan on living there dont just walk away from their homes. Its people who either never could afford the house in the first place or were in some sort of adjustable product that will be walking away.
“The married woman who bought this as her sole and separate property has some of her own money in the game…”
This kind of story always reminds me of that storyline in the Sopranos where Tony agreed to let Carmela build a spec house to get her off his back. Surprisingly, this didn’t turn out so well…
Wonder how this marriage is going with a >$100K loss looming on this woman’s “investment”?
“Damn that was fast…I don’t want to die”
Leonardo DiCaprio, in the Quick and the Dead, 1995
Also reprised by Bear Stearns and IndyMac in The Stupid and the Dead, 2008 (ongoing series on HBO, Homedebtor Blowups Online).
Any idea what’s going on with the townhomes on Cienega in Portola Springs? (MLS# S513880) They keep bumping up the prices but that defies logic since they have been on the market over 260 days. Any clue, Irvine Renter or anyone?? Just going off the pricing history where they have raised the price then dropped it - I’d say they are just gearing up for another “sale”. This one’s got me baffled.
So what is this worth as is?
You can rent a 3 year old 1+d in QH for $1700 from someone who is getting foreclosed on, no doubt, or around Irvine from IAC for $1800.
So let’s say $1800 X 160 GRM = $288k If it were not 30 years old
For an investor who has to worry about making money (and big HOA assessments periodically), $180k
Helloooo Mob Mentality…
“Chateaux” is listed as the builder tract name.
Oh, that makes the name totally appropriate and devoid of pretense.
Start sending them your unused cardboard boxes.
Thats not fair. They are listing the freaking tract name and you assume their is pretense. Take off the bear glasses once in a while…
I realize they were listing the tract name. The tract name is pretentious.
It’s the capitalization of the second c - Chateaux “C"ondo that makes it sound pretentious for me.
OK, when I read this post, you had an ad by Goole for Ditech right below the initial fold (before you click to read more) and initially I did not realize this was an ad and mentally read
“Lost another home to Ditech!”
But the ad was real!
That’s good placement!
“You’ll never see 40% off in Irvine”
- Random Irvine Mortgage Owner
I wonder where all of those people went. I haven’t seen a bull around these parts in quite some time.
I wonder how many places we’ll see at 60% off.
It seems to indicate that we are starting to leave the denial stage.
This is good. Market capitulation is on its way soon.
No…the comments section became very boring with the perma bears attacking anyone who tried to explain why they might think a property is worth something more than a property in AZ.
Any time people started a discussion about what they believe the real median income is or any discussion that swayed from the “this house is worth $200K because that is what it is worth in ____(random city outside of socal)”, they would get attacked and called bulls or disgruntled homeowners. I know cause I have been called that and I neither own a home or am a bull.
Finally, look at IPOs site and see the actual closing prices. While people might list houses 40% off, the banks aren’t accepting them. Will they down the road, possibly. But houses are still selling for 20% off of peak at this time.
Thank you for those comments, rkp—- right on point. I’m also one of AZ’s bulls who does not come around much anymore—- despite the fact that I rent an IAC townhome and am personally hoping prices fall.
The main blog on IHB has become very tired. Most of the homes profiled these days are low end crap designed to fire up the OC haters who like to come here and ridcule Irvine and Orange County. It’s unfortunate that the IHB has ceased to become a place to intelligently discuss the true reality of the Irvine market. The only value add to be taken from here is the broader economic discussions, but that can be found elsewhere. It would have been nice if IHB could have continued to serve an Irvine specific niche.
At least the the Forums section is largely populated by locals who can discuss the market knowledgably.
Perhaps what you say is true, and that is unfortunate. Personally, I believe there are not many bulls around because there is little or no reason to be bullish. Bulls can still be found over at the OC Register, but their shrill rants are more akin to lunacy than substantive discussion.
We had a few somewhat bullish commenters here this week. They made their case and were treated with respect. I enjoy reading the views of those who are less bearish. If I am overlooking conditions in the market which might cause me to rethink my views, I welcome that.
I don’t see how we have lost our Irvine specific niche. I haven’t profiled many higher end properties lately because these are almost uniformly overpriced and not selling. Plus, the low end is a leading indicator of activity at the high end.
I am glad you are enjoying the forums though.
I still read IR’s blogs on a daily basis, but I don’t spend much time in the comments any more, in part for the reasons cited by rkp and CK.
Ironically, David, one of those so-called bears—ipop—actually listed and sold his home in less than 7 days. Guess what, he got more money than the home would fetch in Phoenix, too. I guess he understands the Irvine market pretty well after all.
Shhh, CK! What Forums? There are no IHB Forums.
Some of the higher end homes are good examples of chasing the market. http://www.crystalhomefinder.com/irvine-homes-for-sale/1-whitney/listing-S504153 and http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/Undisclosed-address-92620/home/12463383 are the same house, 1 Whitney. Closing in on a year of being listed, and the price has dropped almost 1/3. It’s now $1.2 million. Completed in 2007. Either stages or being sold by the first occupant really quickly.
“Absolutely gorgeous Tuscany styled home. Brand new, No Asso. No Mello Roos. Main floor bed/bath with patio access. Custom-built gourmet kitchen w/prof. series appliances. Master suite with retreat, fireplace and balcony. Master bath with large walk in shower and Roman tub. Upstairs loft. Spacious family room w/surround sound. Ample use of stone inside and out. Speakers through out. Infinite hot water via tankless water heaters. Fabulous entertainer’s back yard and more. This home has it all!! Brand new property in an older area. MUST SEEEEE..”
Maybe I sounded too harsh there, IR. Don’t get me wrong, when I say tired I mean more the comments and the quality of homes profiled. Your analysis posts remain second to none.
As far as the quality of the homes profiled, it just seems that many of the low end properties don’t hold much interest to those shopping for their family home—- I can’t imagine that these 1 bedroom crap shacks profiled would interest anyone but investors.
Maybe we can have a “3+ bedroom, built after 1995” week at IHB??
I hear what you are saying, and it is why I hide in the
forums. I will say that I foresee more high end properties being profiled in the future. I could be wrong, but what I see in the works is no longer the low end.Are you implying that there hasn’t been a home in Irvine that has sold for a 40% loss? And to clarify, I don’t expect 60% losses to be the norm, but we will surely see a few.
It used to be the perma bulls staging a full frontal assault on anyone who even hinted that prices may fall in Irvine. However, there was plenty of intelligent discussion to go along with it.
I personally can’t believe people paid even 50% of peak pricing to live in Irvine. It’s a nice city and I’m actually considering moving there if I take a job I’m looking at (one more engineer, prepare yourselves), but the speculated appreciation has yet to be removed from the pricing. Still a long way to go imho. I don’t see why people buy in Turtle Rock when they could get the same place in Corona Del Mar for the same price.
schools ! I think many would have looked at Irvine in a completely different way if it wasn’t for the schools and the fact that few places in the rest of OC have comparable schools.
But their little geniuses might actually be better off in a less competitive school district. The top universities don’t let you in just because you went to a top of the line high school—class standing is pretty important in college admissions, and a somewhat less lofty district might give them a better chance to stand out.
don’t for the XX % or $ XXX down from peak BS sales pitch. Those peak sales numbers are nearly all bogus and based on fraud, cash-back and inflated numbers. Coincidentally, i just had a realtor call me and tell me a house is 200K below what it sold for in 2006. Said it was the best value out there and it would go fast and he would give me first crack at it (he would be representing me and the seller, by the way). I laughed my arse off after the voice message ended. Like I tell everyone, past sales prices in 2005, 2006, 2007, and even 2008 don’t mean a whole lot. Better to use what the house sold for around 1994-95 and double it, which loosely uses the rule of 72 and inflation of 5% (generous). So a house sold for 400K in 94, should generally be “worth” 800K now. DON’T FALL FOR THAT BS XX% DROPPED FROM PEAK, OR xxx $ DROP….so what if the place dropped 50% from 2MM….the place is really only worth 800K…...don’t be a sucker….
Great post IR!
Now I realize that my college dorm was actually a
“Cottage, Craftsman”! It’s very French to put the subject first. This just in (please don’t laugh) I now have a one-fourth interest in a “need to sell” home in MV. We had to sit on it for over a year while the market unwound. I am now able to use my newly minted free education on Real Estate fundamentals to realize what to expect.
....Kill me now, please
Actually, it helps to know what the market is up to…(down to?)
The challenge will be getting the realtor to price it to actually sell. If I ignore what the “values” were two years ago, whatever we get is a gift, the result of Dad’s hard work and thrift. I don’t think we want to rent it, but I am looking up rent comparisons to see how we might price it. Oh, and I expect that we’ll be using a realtor. Any hints? If needed, I’ll take it to the Forums.
It may be a little out of his territory, but IrvineRealtor has proven himself a professional that can get a home staged and sold in this market.
Hi Agent, my coworkers, don’t be so angery, we will have to admit and come back to ground, only market is reality nothing else, you don’t have to lose your confidence. no matter it goes up or down, you make money anyway, less for sure, the anger could come because you have more than 1 or 2 houses with 0% down, what you worry about, oh, I forgot you can not get rid of them to make your ends meet…this is it, luckily, I only have one my house called home..
2x2 1145 sq/ft $310 per sq/ft $391 HOA fees…
Did I forget anything?
Oh, yeah. HAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHA…!!!
Chateaux Condeaux
391 for H-eaux-A
Bleaux me!
Fk me sideways, that’s fantastic.