Irvine Housing Blog

Haha, nice side-by-side IR! This kind of flagrant denial is exactly what is going to really make things tank all that much worse. Maybe they figure there is a rich family coming from Asia that’s going to swoop in and save them. Best of luck with that, I say!
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But this is Irvine; things are different here.  Everyone wants to live here.  And, it’s a buyer’s market.  Most importantly, Greenspan announced yesterday that the worst is behind us.  I really like this house, think I’ll make an offer 10% over list price, just to be sure I’m first in line.

Magnificent?  Yeah…so close to the chaparral it’ll make a magnificent pyre next time a fire come raging down the hill… better make sure Portola Pkwy holds as a fire brake.

Views of the trees.. hey, I got a trellis with plants in my atrium… can I make a statement that ALL of my windows have views of the trees?

Exclusive?  Huh?  There must be like 200 hundred houses like it.  What’s so exclusive about it?  I think inclusive is more the modus operandi, as in

“if you don’t sell that house, the bank is gonna do an ‘inclusive’ job on your butt”

Everytime I see realtors engage in that type “penmanship” I just want to cringe.

But how would you know how much to bid if nothing is moving?

10% off the bank’s list price?  20% off the bank’s list price?

I have the vague impression that here in Miami there are fewer for sale signs, I think because sellers who don’t have to sell have taken their
homes off the mkt.

Those are very pretty houses, and would sell, in certain Miami neighborhoods for about that much, (in the very recent past)  but the lots would be much bigger.

from Newsweek: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21103880/site/newsweek/
Reassessing the Boom
Not long ago, real-estate appraisers arrived on doorsteps with nothing but great news. Today they’re providing a sobering reality check.

If you did that I’d suspect you’d be both first and last in line

This is a great article and it gives a little bit of insight on how the market will progress from here. In this article the home that was worth $1.2 million last year is now selling for $610,000; a nearly 50% reduction.

Better hurry up and wait to buy a home…....

...........and my guess is that these McMansions in Irvine will be selling in the 800K range within two or three years.

Doesn’t surprise me at all. Speaking with people in OC, it’s clear that most think this is a minor blip caused by a credit crunch. The market will be back just as soon as the banks and congress sort things out. Prices are not an issue and will keep going up in the medium and long term.

Reality has not yet sunk in. It is therefore clear we are nowhere near the bottom. You can’t have a panic when the masses are still clueless about the danger.

A humble request - can we not use the word “McMansion”? Especially for a house that would not cost more than $500,000 in most parts of the country.

It just stinks of jealousy and sour grapes. This is America people. If you don’t want a bigger house, then you’re doing it wrong.

/end rant

the masses will always be clueless

anyone cares to comment on Lansner post about 24& rent surge in Irvine since 2004.

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/03/irvine-rents-up-24-in-four-years/

I used to rent a 2 bedroom in villa sienna in 2001 to 2004. I recently checked the price of same unit. It wasn’t 24% jump.

of course credibility of the reporter is in question.

I think you miss the spirit behind the word “McMansion.” At least for me, I see it as a term of derision for the pretentious aspirations of those who buy these homes for social status, and the wasteful expenditure of resources to heat, cool and maintain such a place.

I am not jealous of a McMansion owner, I am laughing at them. My emotion is not bitterness because I don’t have one, it is amusement because the owners of these places assume I am envious, when in reality, I think they are pathetic.

I would note that not all large homes are McMansions. I have been to some very beautiful estates in Orange County owned by people who really enjoy their homes, not because it impresses other people, but because the homes are beautiful, functional, and what these people wanted. The very rich own large homes to live in them, impressing people is not a priority. The don’t need to impress anyone, they are rich.

As Irvine continues to develop high-end apartments, the aggregate rent will rise. The increase for individual properties is not that big.

Looks like Village is one of those high-end apartments

Er, that is exactly the “spirit” behind the word which I object to. As for the explanation, I fail to see any useful distinction based on the owner’s state of mind. By that definition a house could be a “MacMansion” one day, then sold and no longer be one the next.

I think what you want to criticize is the occupants, not the house itself.

I’d like a McMansion one day.  Sure it’s an upgraded cookie cutter tract home, but I’d be a nice place to live and fit the whole family.

-Stupid

BTW - do I get fries with that?

“Magnificent home in exclusive gated community of Shady Canyon. Beautiful valley and hills views!!! Big kitchen, high ceilings, open, spacious floorplan. Dramatic entry, wide stairway, upgraded flooring & moldings. Quiet, peaceful, culdesac! Private access to hiking trail.”

that description seems to work.  now if i changed shady canyon to northwood, can anyone honestly say that the description is still appropriate?

theres certainly nothing wrong with calling those homes mcmansions especially if sellers and agents are going to tout them as more exclusive than they really are.
 
these are both fine homes—they just aren’t what they’re purported to be.

Actually I think of the McMansion like a Big Mac. 

1. It’s everywhere.  You can walk anyplace and ther eit is.
2. It’s consistent.  You know exactly what you’re going to get.
3. It’s reasonably priced (ok, not now, but usually) for what you get (ie. a nice place to live).
4. It’s tasty.  Someone built prototypes then fine tuned them and mass produced it.  Like a Big Mac or Toyota.  Not the most unique thing, but good.

And as long as you don’t try and spend extra eat the supersized fries at the same time   everything is fine.

Exactly. So are some of the new apartments in Woodbury and Orchard Hills.

My wife wants us to buy a McMansion in Woodbury when the market is ripe. I may do it even knowing it is a McMansion because I really don’t care what anyone might think. I wouldn’t be buying the house to impress anyone. Is is still a McMansion? Yes. Do I care? No. Does that make me a McMansion owner? Depends, doesn’t it?

Subprime Loan Delinquencies in Bonds Accelerate, Moody’s Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGNw1wX9WAl8&refer=home

Ok, this is only sort of on the housing topic, but it’s interesting

I think? they’re saying is that the complete freeze up (ie. I’m not buying, I’m not selling - I have no idea what asset backed security you’re hiding in the bag) is thawing.  It’s not that the value of what’s in the bag hasn’t gone down or will continue to go down, it’s that there’s less uncertainly as to what’s in the bag, so it’s easier for the buyer to take a guess at what it’s worth and maybe make an offer.

Kinda like a kid going to a store with those “mystery surprise bags” for $2.  Should he buy one?  If he doesn’t have any clue as to what’s in it, the answer is likely no.  But if he asks the clerk and the clerk says they had leftover toy cars, some leftover Pokemon candy, and Hello Kitty pencils and stuff and stuck them in the mystery packages, the kid might think about buying one, even though he’s still not sure exactly what’s in the bag, there’s the possibility it might be good.

Greenspan Says Investors Assuming Credit Slump Over (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a84JaE9ykRpg

U.S. Commercial Paper Grows; First Gain Since August (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKjl5N_k.qCA&refer=home

Home-Price Outlook Takes Another Shot

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119146645724948646.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Old man nanowest here:

I’ve owned 5 homes over the past 25 years. Two of them were large by my standards, 3000 and 3500 sq. ft. Large homes are for the most part stupid, unless you have a zoo or a large extended family to take care of.

And for those of you with families…...........large houses let the kids(and parents) hide in extra tv rooms, great rooms and other rooms that they really don’t need. With a smaller home, it forces your family to spend time together and do things together.

..........think about this before you buy a larger home….....

For the most part, people that buy large houses, in my opinion, want to be recognized as successful. I know that when I was in that phase of my life, it was a status thing for me.

Job workshop planned for laid-off mortgage workers

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/04/job-workshop-planned-for-laid-off-mortgage-workers/

I think the definition of McMansion includes the fact that the house is too big for the lot, or inappropriately large for the neighborhood, or includes imitations of design features that one would expect to see in a true estate.  Things like gates, fountains, “casitas”, pool houses, grand staircases, butler’s pantry, etc.  There is an element of scale and consistency that McMansions are lacking.  These features look good in the MLS listing, but are actually very out of place in reality.  Once a McMansion, always a McMansion.  But not every 4000-5000 sq foot house in OC is a McMansion.  Some are well designed SFRs that are appropriate for the lot and community.  I think Shady would qualify, whereas TRidge seems more McMansion-esqe.

That is why there are markets and opportunities.

i believe skek has the textbook definition of mcmansion down right.  in the irvine housing bubble context, the term tends to also imply things about the owners but thats not necessarily always the case. 

i’m not sure i’d technically actually classify the first house as a mcmansion.  it has a very simple and traditional aesthetic.  the front yard is done tastefully, if not blandly.  so there’s nothing extraordinary about the house but i’d be proud to raise a family in that 3000 sq ft home in northwood!

the 2nd house on the other hand is another story.  the description on both listings, however, are so out of line its almost laughable.  whether or not these are mcmansions, theres no denying that the sellers are attempting to pass off both houses as mansions.  that in and of itself is mcmansion-y.

I lived in Villa Siena from 2003-2007 and had to fight to get my rent increased just 5-6% each year.

One More for the folks thinking the high end is immune:

“GREENWICH, Connecticut (Reuters) - There’s an indoor lap pool, eight-car garage and four-storey elevator. But the 26,000-sq ft (2,415-sq meter), Tuscan-style home features something even more unusual in this ritzy suburb of gated estates and mansions—a $3 million discount on its price.”

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071003/lf_nm/usa_housing_mansions_dc_1

And for the “It’s not Irvine!” crowd, Greenwich Connecticut makes Newport Beach look like Stanton…

Various bailout proposals. 

Subprime Borrowers’ Payments Should Be Fixed, FDIC’s Bair Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=af7qgVXCOx5o

“Miller and Rep. Linda Sánchez Introduce Legislation to Protect Consumers in Financial Distress from Losing Their Homes”
http://www.house.gov/bradmiller/prpr20070921.html

Specter Introduces Bill To Combat Home Mortgage Crisis
http://specter.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=NewsRoom.NewsReleases&ContentRecord_id=681cabb5-1321-0e36-ba6b-9b3757ac9089

US CREDIT-Beazer debt prices face more weakness
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN0357693520071003?rpc=44&sp=true

Facing foreclosure? Fight is better than flight
Financially stressed homeowners have options instead of just moving out

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21098586/

In 2004 when I moved out of Villa Sienna, I actually paid less for a 2 bedroom townhouse in “Brittany at Oak Creek”.
In 2003, they lowered my rent in Villa Sienna once I gave them 1 month notice. I was going to move to Brittany that year.
I always shop around before my 1-year contract expires.

Giving borrowers a break
Prodded by politicians and foreclosures, some mortgage lenders are willing to modify terms to help homeowners.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-workouts4oct04,1,7670300,full.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=8&cset=true

Foreclosure victim or serial refinancer?

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/10/foreclosure-vic.html

Why do you want to move to Woodbury?  The homes are too big for their lots.

Also, if you buy into a newer area with a lot of “readjusted prices” you may get hit with some crazy HOA fees as the association has to readjust fees to allow for non paying homeowners.

I think that if you wait long enough, you should be able to buy a nice 4b/2ba home in TR for $800K.

What’s with the name change for El Camino Real? I thought IUSD wanted to move schools and preserve names in general.

http://www.iusd.org/schools/ecr.html
Click on the school website link there and it takes you to
“Woodbury Elementary”

Can’t seem to make the old El Camino Real test scores link work, but seemed to recall it wasn’t one of the better IUSD elementary schools.

Hmm….

Good graph over at Calculated Risk today

More Moodys Subprime data
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/more-moodys-subprime-data.html

Risk your house to save your credit cards?
As home values drop, many homeowners are struggling—and if there’s more debt than money, many are willing to turn in their keys so they can keep their plastic.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/CreditCardSmarts/RiskYourHouseToSaveYourCards.aspx?page=1

For home builders, the worst is to come
Builders soberly predict even lower prices as millions of homes sit empty and would-be buyers (who must meet tighter mortgage qualifications) bide their time.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/ForHomeBuildersTheWorstIsToCome.aspx

Not everyone likes the creeky old places in TR tonye…  Heck, lots of people don’t even want a decent-sized lot.  Lots of alley-entry yardless stuff sold in recent years.  That seems to be the trend here.

Personally I agree with you that lots in Woodbury are just too small.  That was one of the turn-offs when I looked at Portisol and more recently at Villa Rosa.  5,000 sf lot for a near 3,000 sf house is too tight.

Tonye,

I keep telling my wife we should buy in Turtle Rock and get a large single-story on a big lot. It doesn’t matter if it is old because you can always renovate it to taste. Alas, she is in love with Woodbury.

We looked at the Mille Fleur Woodbury McMansions the other day. The houses are so large and so close together that nobody has any back yard privacy (or back yard for that matter.) She loves them. I think they feel like living in a fishbowl.

Yeah. Much better to give the bank some time to fool you into staying and paying on the underwater home.

The U.S. used to force people into slavery. Now they trick people into slavery. (Through debt.)

My guess is your wife is far better looking than you - but you are smarter than her!

I’ll bet she is better looking and smarter.  (he-he)

OK… I live in the Broadmoor.. which is about the ONLY place in Irvine where you can buy a single story house and put a second story on it.  And it’s in TR.

They may be “creaky” to some, but for others they are opportunities to build their custom home in a very nice location.

As it is on the outside of TR Drive, the prices are lower and we don’t have view deeds.  And the homes are “reasonably” priced and sized.  You can take your 1800 sq foot 4b/2ba and push it to a nice 3000 sq foot 5b/3ba and still have a reasonably small yard with privacy from your neighbors.

That’s exactly what we did.

When I look at those new homes, I see a hodge podge of condos and homes, and then -like on Portola- I noted that I can sit in a toilet and there are windows in the house next to me that look directly into my butt…. Now, what kind of design is that?

Woobury to me look fabricated.  Just as you were smart enough to reason with your wife about purchase timing, you should be able to point out to her the downfalls of buying in a new development with a recent dramatic drop in prices, with an HOA in financial dire straits and with very high taxes:

Remember that the Mello Roos is a fixed price.  If the price of the house drops then the percentage of the Mello Roos goes up.  That is, on those Woodbury homes at 900K, your tax liability will be close to 4%, right?  In TR, you don’t have Mello Roos and a 1.1. tax…

So… Woodbury, 900K, 4% tax, -> $36K a year.
      TR, 900K, 1.2% tax -> ~ $10K a year.

Sure, you’ll get a white elephant at Woodbury, but those $26K a year could be used to raise $175K and you could add space in TR… and your tax will still be lower FOREVER….

Just things to think about, and the reason why we stayed put and did not “move up”.

Stupid,

If you find out why they renamed it, let me know. I’m disappointed that they closed ECR, but it stings that much more now that they decided to change the name. Honestly, to me it reeks of these idiots who decided the street name “Bryan” wasn’t high class enough and needed to rename it “Long Meadow”.

Woodbury can lick it.

Home builder Standard Pacific cuts staff, merges offices

http://biz.yahoo.com/bizj/071004/1531266.html?.v=2

Standard Pacific Corp. will merge its South Bay operations into its East Bay office, its Northern California regional President Douglas C. Krah said today.
Of 75 people working in the South Bay, Irvine-based Standard Pacific (NYSE:SPF - News) laid off about 25 people. He declined to give the status of Division President Steve Delva.
...
“I am feeling very challenged,” Krah said. “Closing an office is a very difficult experience for all of us.”

No single event precipitated the moves, he said.

The South Bay office will likely remain open “through a transition period” until the end of the year.