Housing Markets
IHB Analysis Posts
General
The following are links to the analysis posts and assorted essays of Larry Roberts (Irvine Renter):
3-2-2010 -- Interest-Only Loans Join Option ARMs in Dustbin of Financial History -- The ongoing credit crunch witnesses the elimination of another dubious loan program.
3-1-2010 -- The Bernanke Put: The Implied Protection of Mortgage Interest Rates -- How will the Federal Reserve manage the increase in mortgage interest rates?
2-17-2010 -- Use FHA Financing: Loan Assumption is the Appreciation of the Twenty-Teens -- Obtaining financing equity through assumable mortgages is the way to benefit from home ownership in the next decade.
1-29-2010 -- The Changing Face of Flipping -- Flips come in a variety of flavors, some of which taste better than others.
1-18-2010 -- A Theory of House Prices and Housing Markets -- A foundational teaching on housing.
10-20-2009 -- Hard Crash? or Soft Landing? -- A philosophical examination of which way you like to take your medicine.
10-13-2009 -- Alternate Market Price Measurements -- Post looks at price measurements other than the median.
10-12-2009 -- Median as Market Price Measurement -- Post examines the good and bad qualities of using the median.
9-2-2009 -- Shadow Inventory Orange County -- With a little data and some complex analysis, it is possible to get an accurate picture of the shadow inventory in Orange County.
8-13-2009 -- Bottom? or Bear Rally? -- Will foreign cash buyers sustain real estate valuations at inflated prices? Not according to Rich Toscano.
7-20-2009 -- Rental Parity and Beyond -- A conceptual review of the concept of rental parity and how it can be applied to real estate market pricing.
7-13-2009 -- 1997 -- A careful look at the conditions at the bottom of the last real estate market with comparison to today.
6-29-2009 -- The Immunity Syndrome -- The belief that prices cannot fall at the high end prompted speculators to bid prices up to inconceivable levels. The high end may crash hardest.
3-9-2009 -- The Market Bottom Is Not a Price Point -- The bottom of a real estate market is not a specific price point, but a state of affordability.
10-6-2008 -- Fundamentals at a Market Bottom -- A review of what market conditions prevail at the bottom of the housing cycle.
9-29-2008 -- Desire is not Demand -- A revealing look at the final myth propagated by realtors during a price decline.
8-11-2008 -- Timing Does Matter -- An analysis dispelling the myths about timing the residential real estate market.
3-11-2008 -- Houses and Commodities Trading -- An examination of the parallels between commodities markets and the behavior of residential real estate markets.
10-1-2007 -- What Caused the Bubble Rally? -- A detailed analysis of the conditions the preceded the bubble rally and the causes of its inflation.
9-13-2007 -- The Market Bottom -- A review of the conditions that formed the last market bottom and why it formed at the price level it did.
2007-06-25 -- Houses Should Not Be a Commodity -- A discussion of the psychology of commodity market trading and why this is an undesirable element in housing markets.
2007-04-30 -- Appreciation is Dead -- Rapid home price appreciation has become an accepted truism in Southern California. There are many reasons to believe this is not a basic Truth of Life. This post examines the causes of appreciation and explores the reasons why it may all be coming to an end.
Time-Sensitive Projection
2-1-2010 -- No Housing Market Bottom -- A review of current circumstances to reaffirm the housing market has not bottomed.
10-19-2009 -- Rent? or Own? Fall 2009 -- A look at the state of the rent versus own decision in late 2009.
9-28-2009 -- The 2011 Inflation Spike -- The Federal Reserve may allow inflation to spike in the medium term.
9-2-2009 -- Shadow Inventory Orange County -- With a little data and some complex analysis, it is possible to get an accurate picture of the shadow inventory in Orange County.
5-18-2009 -- Irvine's Future REO Inventory -- A review of the building wave of foreclosures due to hit the Irvine market.
5-11-2009 -- Temporary Affordability and the Third Foreclosure Wave -- An analysis of the problem adjustable rate mortgage create for the future of the housing market.
4-20-2009 -- Pent-Up Supply -- A buildup of inventory at the mid to high end of the housing market signals an upcoming drop in prices.
3-23-2009 -- Real Estate's Lost Decade -- Rising interest rates could stop appreciation for a full decade.
2-2-2009 -- Fire and Ice -- Is it better for the market to correct quickly or slowly? An analysis of the implications of both methods of market correction.
11-12-2008 -- The ARM Problem -- Adjustable rate mortgages scheduled to reset from 2009-2011 are the next wave of foreclosures that will flatten the real estate market.
8-25-2008 -- I Was Wrong, It’s Worse… -- A review of projections of future price drops 18 months later.
2007-04-02 -- How Bad Could Bad Get? -- A look at the worst case scenario for our housing market, and why it is not unrealistic.
2007-03-14 -- Why the Sub-Prime Meltdown is a Problem -- Many have postulated the sub-prime collapse would not impact housing prices in more affluent areas like Irvine. This brief post debunks this idea.
2007-03-11 -- Predictions for the Irvine Housing Market -- A prediction for the future of housing prices in Irvine based on an analysis of emerging data and trends. This is the capstone post tying together the series of posts from 3-1 to 3-9.
2007-03-09 -- What if Prices Dropped to Fundamental Values? -- A brief "what if" on the impact a decline to fundamental valuations would have on Orange County housing prices.
2007-03-06 -- What is Past is Prologue -- A review of the mechanics of the collapse of the last bubble to provide a foundation for the projections of the market action in our current market bubble.
2007-02-27 -- I am IrvineRenter (Inventory Cholesterol) -- A brief introductory post and a discussion of the different types of housing inventory and how they impact prices.
