Home Sales hit 13-year low; unemployment drags on recovery

Jan 26th, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by aaron
2011-01-26 09:47 AM

That house will probably get as low as $250K. Maybe lower. Irvine/Orange prices way off balance. Worse still nobody wants them except the Chinese.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2011-01-26 10:51 AM

So, you think this home’s rental value is ~$1k monthly?

These comments were frequent on IHB years ago - “This isn’t worth $___ because I wouldn’t buy it for anything more.”

Astute Observation by bigmoneysalsa
2011-01-26 11:53 AM

I agree that there’s no way this falls to $250K. But 250/1 is still a pretty bubalicious price/rent ratio. The ratio will go a lot lower than that.

Astute Observation by Geotpf
2011-01-26 02:11 PM

Rental value as an occupant or as a landlord?  For a landlord to own this, they would want to pay not much more than 100 times monthly rent, which would give it a rental value of $2,500 a month at a purchase price of $250k.  And, yes, very few Irvine properties are that cheap compared to rent.  Being a landlord in Irvine is a losing proposition (unless you own an entire apartment building as opposed to just a single condo, or bought the property when Reagan was president).

Of course, this is worth a lot more than $250k.  aaron is simply living on another planet.

Look at these sold comps (note how close they are-the first two appear to be in a building directly across the street):

Nearby Similar SalesMore Info
Closest homes similar to 195 GROVELAND, which sold within the past six months:
  $525,000
132 CHANTILLY
Sold on Oct 28, 2010   0 miles
3 bd / 2.5 ba
1,740 Sq. Ft. 
  $530,000
120 CHANTILLY
Sold on Aug 27, 2010   0 miles
3 bd / 2.5 ba
1,740 Sq. Ft. 
  $520,000
93 CANAL
Sold on Dec 06, 2010   0.12 miles
4 bd / 2.5 ba
1,500 Sq. Ft. 
  $645,000
177 SANCTUARY
Sold on Jul 30, 2010   0.15 miles
4 bd / 3 ba
2,104 Sq. Ft. 
  $700,000
89 LAMPLIGHTER
Sold on Jan 14, 2011   0.15 miles
4 bd / 3 ba
2,104 Sq. Ft. 
  $700,000
161 RHAPSODY
Sold on Nov 12, 2010   0.17 miles
4 bd / 2.75 ba
2,000 Sq. Ft. 
  $625,000
185 SANCTUARY
Sold on Aug 24, 2010   0.17 miles
3 bd / 2.5 ba
1,580 Sq. Ft. 
  $700,000
187 SANCTUARY
Sold on Jan 14, 2011   0.17 miles
4 bd / 2.5 ba
1,959 Sq. Ft. 
  $590,000
160 VINTAGE
Sold on Nov 10, 2010   0.17 miles
3 bd / 2.5 ba
1,640 Sq. Ft. 
  $625,000
189 RHAPSODY
Sold on Jan 21, 2011   0.19 miles
3 bd / 2.5 ba
1,640 Sq. Ft. 
Range: $520,000 - $700,000
Average: $344/Sq. Ft. 
This home at $344/Sq. Ft.: $670,020

Note that the two in the building across the street are 210 sq ft smaller than this place yet sold above the current asking price (more that double what aaron thinks it’s worth).

Astute Observation by alan
2011-01-26 02:22 PM

Which begs the question..

Why would anyone in their right mind pay $500K for a property they could rent for $2500/month.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-01-26 02:28 PM

This is a wild guess:

It could be due to the fact that the monthly cost of ownership with a $400K mortgage is about the same as renting.

Again, a total wild guess.  Some people may like the fact that the mortgage payments of around $2000 a month are fixed and the interest is deductible.  I’m going out on a limb here though, and pondering other wild reasons why someone would consider it.

Astute Observation by alan
2011-01-26 02:45 PM

The $400/month property tax is sort of fixed also (goes up 2% per year)...

Maintenace costs are never fixed… Hey Mr plumber, I hear you need another boat payment… come on over…

HOA fees… Hey guys, sorry we didn’t access enough to cover some needed repairs, how’s about a $2000 special assessment

Sorry dude, there’s a lot more to owning a home then just paying a mortgage.  In my experience, $2500 rent vs $500K for property… RENT

Astute Observation by Swiller
2011-01-26 08:51 PM

There are a ton of reasons to BUY rather than RENT. Children would be the top on that list. Most parents want their children to have a great education, in Irvine they get that.

Buying with the SUBSIDIZED mortgage deduction, makes it very close to renting, gives you long term stability for the children to grow up in the same neighborhood, and gasp…believe it or not, eventually, you WILL pay off the mortgage if you do not use it as an ATM machine.

And Alan, when you own your own home you either LEARN to fix/build things yourself, or you pay dearly. I learned quite a bit, how to do basic electrical, plumbing (including sweating copper), masonry, and a host of other skills that you will never ever learn renting. Some people would prefer to never learn those skills, but then again, some people love renting, not owning.

Astute Observation by chip
2011-01-27 12:41 AM

1. Are you saying renters’ children don’t get a good education?
2. Having happy parents that don’t stress over a mortgage loan may actually result in more stability for the children.
3. What if instead of fixing the next broken thing in the house, I prefer to spending time playing with my children in my rented house?

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-01-26 03:30 PM

aaron forgot to mention in his post that he’s also looking to purchase Apple stock for $40 a share.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-01-26 12:18 PM

@aaron:

“That house will probably get as low as $250k. Maybe lower.”

Care to wager on that? The last time a 3b/3ba ~2000sft home in Irvine went for less than $300k was in the 90s.

While I hope that would happen (because that would mean 5/3s are are less than $400k) I am pretty sure it is close to impossible.

That would be an ELE.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-01-26 12:35 PM

Based on current incomes, rents, and interest rates, $450,000 would be a good price. It would take 9% interest rates without rising incomes to see $250K on this property.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-01-26 12:43 PM

I don’t even think 9% interest rates will do it even if income doesn’t rise.

Even in the 90s bubble, prices in Irvine didn’t go too far below their base prices and there were 9% rates then too.

Astute Observation by lee in irvine
2011-01-26 01:12 PM

I don’t even think 9% interest rates will do it even if income doesn’t rise.

Of course you don’t think that.

Even in the 90s bubble, prices in Irvine didn’t go too far below their base prices and there were 9% rates then too.

I can only hope (and pray) that we get a chance to see if your correct in the near future.

JMO ~ 9% mortgages at today’s prices would kill affordability in Irvine.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-01-26 12:55 PM

That assumes an FHA loan.

Meanwhile in the real world the cash down payment on this home is almost $100K, current price is then below rental parity.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-01-26 01:59 PM

Exactly PR, heavy cash down payments are the norm rather than the exception.

Astute Observation by bigmoneysalsa
2011-01-26 02:53 PM

It’s an interesting definition of “rental parity” that ignores the oportunity cost of $100K down payment.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2011-01-26 03:12 PM

You are wrong, opportunity cost are included.

But not all of us are investing in cutting edge big money investments in the Salsa industry.  Your oppotunity cost are understandably exorbitant.

Astute Observation by bigmoneysalsa
2011-01-26 03:24 PM

There exist ways of defining “rental parity” such that this property meets the definition at the current asking price. As such, I conceed that someone can call this price “rental parity” without necessarily being disingenuous. I’d contend that such definitions of rental parity aren’t normal or sustainable.

And I don’t know how things are on planet Reality, but on planet Earth making fun of an anonymous internet poster’s handle doesn’t constitute a very good argument.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-01-27 07:37 AM

But, if that is the only argument you got ....

Astute Observation by Brett Meyers
2011-01-26 09:57 PM

yikes…!  IR, you just hit the nail on the head.  I believe we are more likely to have 9+% rates a decade from now than 6 or 7.  You could literally own this or any OC RE for a decade only to loose money when you have to sell to someone buying with 9% money! 

We are likely in for a very long slow grind lower as long as we have a stagnant economy with high unemployment and rising commodity costs. 

BTW, all of you believing in the tax deductions etc.  The feds are likely to eliminate this for any debt above $500K.  The debt and deficit commision for Obama just said eliminate it completely…..

My .02

Astute Observation by grossed out
2011-02-02 03:42 PM

Aaron,
Stay in the inland empire.

Thank you,
All of Orange County.

Astute Observation by Anonymous
2011-01-26 11:38 AM

Interesting graph of OC home prices at

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/01/26/price-cuts-grow-by-sellers-of-high-end-homes/96988/

Astute Observation by Frak
2011-01-26 12:52 PM

Yeah, asking prices are dropping. One hopes this tracks some kind of downward trend in final sales price as well, but I wonder what the exact correlation is.

For all I know this just means 75th percentile listers are marking things more realistically without a big drop in the actual sales price (e.g. homes destined to be sold at $600K are now finally being listed at just above that, instead of $800K). But I hope that it is an indication that sales prices are also continuing their downward dribble.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-01-26 02:24 PM

Yeah, aaron forgot to mention in his post that wants to buy Apple stock at $40 a share as well.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-01-26 02:31 PM

aaron forgot to mention in his post that he wants to buy Apple stock at $40 a share as well.

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2011-01-26 05:08 PM

sorry, I got trigger happy

Astute Observation by jaime escalante
2011-01-26 11:58 PM

there’s something going on here nobody is talking about.

yeah, jobs matter.  as do prices.  and even rates.

but how about history and learning something after touching a hot stove.

(i think ) there’s a whole slew of pretty smart (once) potential buyers who having witnessed the post bubble carnage in the housing market will NEVER buy (my hand is raised).  the recent level of devastation (i.e., prices) is pretty new territory, isn’t it? ; especially in “new” sunny markets like Fla., Phoenix and Vegas once thought immune because of, well, i forget.  oh yeah, the sun.

houses turned out to be nooses.  and having escaped the hangman once, who wants to give him another shot.

ps u can RENT houses in nice neighborhoods, NOT have to pay property taxes and send ur kids to the (potentially) good schools there right?

Astute Observation by Mike Nolls
2011-01-27 10:41 PM

Definitely seems to be the bandwagon of late, rent rent rent, and who’s to disagree? We have no idea if home prices are even near their actual valuation.  I don’t think we’ve cleared ourselves of the bubble yet but we’ll see how well 2011 stabilizes and where our economy goes this next year..  It’s the American dream to own your own property.

Astute Observation by Jon
2011-01-28 11:17 AM

I think I’m with Aaron on this one.  And here’s why:

1. the median income for a family in Irvine is 111,455

2.  4 times earnings (the Irvine premium) is only $445,820. 

3.  I don’t believe this condo is equivalent to or worth $450,000 because it’s not a median home.

For this area, I believe $150 a square foot is more reasonable valuation.  That puts this home at about $292,500. 

4.  That is, it’s a small condo. 

At $275-3K

Commenting is not available in this channel entry.

<< Back to main