Irvine Housing Blog

Finally some good numbers for real estate!  you know whats really interesting is to calculate the median asking price as compared to last years median sales price.  In my county (ventura county) this is showing a 20%+ drop.  I think by the end of the year we will be around 30%, and by next year around 50%.  And remember thats just for the asking price, not sales price.  this gives me a better idea of how much prices have actually dropped.  the main thing still skewing the numbers would be the people who dont need to sell, however i feel most of them will be gone by the end of the year.
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do they have SFH data in the same format?

Dataquick breaks down the prices between SFR and condos.  Usually they’re published in the LA Times Real Estate section.

http://www.dqnews.com/ZIPLAT.shtm

Community Name ZIP Code Sales of Singe Family Homes Price Median SFR ($1,000) Price % Chg from Aug 2006 Sales Count Condos Price Median Condos ($1,000) Price % Chg from Aug 2006 Median Home Price/ Sq. Ft

Irvine 92602 8 $1,033 8.8% 8 $613 6.2% n/a
Irvine 92603 14 $1,398 10.5% 8 $749 6.2% $502
Irvine 92604 11 $730 5.4% 9 $515 -12.4% $404
Irvine 92606 9 $795 3.9% 4 $490 -5.8% $305
Irvine 92612 10 $695 6.9% 9 $613 16.7% $367
Irvine 92614 8 $771 -1.4% 12 $460 -2.6% $398
Irvine 92618 3 $840 -23.6% 11 $640 68.4% $471

The data I just posted was only through August.  This week’s LA times has LA county through September and next week will probably have the data for Orange County.

Looks like Hovnanian’s slashing of prices at Avenue One in 92612 has taken a toll on that zip’s median price. Prices at Avenue One are down 30%+ off their peak.

by 2010, several Irvine zips should be back down to the $400,000’s.  still about $100,000 too high (using median income of roughly $80,000 X 4 = $320,000).  maybe 2012 will get us to that level.

So your expectation is that household incomes stagnate for five years?

The flaw in “exports sales” will save the US companies ...

Europe Feels Pinch as Housing Boom Slows
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119299930996266229.html

i actually think that household income in Orange County could fall over the next 5 years.  so many realtors and mortgage brokers are now out of business that it could cause a drop in the overall numbers.  i think that group skewed the numbers way up over the last 5 years and they will have the opposite effect now that they are gone.

be aware of fire, check the news

Median prices seems like a flawed data point to me. Imagine if you were a guy who found himself in a world where there were 10 or even 20 women for every man. The men would have their pick and the prettiest, sexiest women would find mates.  I suspect the houses that are selling are the best available and would have gone quickly in normal market, and been bid even higher in a bull market. I think using medians in this market hides larger declines.

California Homes Are Overvalued by as Much as 40%, Goldman Sachs Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awTwHUdj2wM0

This confirms our 40% or steeper drop in OC

“The men would have their pick and the prettiest, sexiest women would find mates. “

That says a lot about what you think of your own sex, Paul Hiller.

I’m sorry Diana. You misunderstand me. Even if I could pick the prettiest, nicest, most fun woman around I would still pick someone like you.