Irvine Housing Blog

So what happened to the foreclosed home?
10:1 another multi-millionaire stepped in and bought the Shady Canyon home.
Last time I checked the lots alone in Shady are selling for $2M

It just means that all the pretenders are being pushed out so that all the real money can now find a way in.

Maybe a millionaire did buy that prop.

Check this out ... these are the only two (per Redfin) sales in SC the last month:

97 CANYON Crk Irvine, CA 92603
Sep 10, 2010 Listed (Active) $5,398,000
Jan 05, 2011 Sold (MLS) (Closed) $4,300,000
(FAIL)

63 CANYON Crk Irvine, CA 92603
Dec 22, 2009 Sold (Public Records) $4,295,984 REO
Dec 28, 2009 Listed (Active) 4,500,000
Dec 31, 2010 Sold (MLS) $3,500,000
(Ultra Fail)

Looks to me like pricing in Shady is rolling over.

There’s actually one more that sold in Shady (per Redfin):

Mark Langston’s house

56 GOLDEN EAGLE Irvine, CA 92603
Sep 23, 2010 Listed (Active) $5,995,000
Dec 30, 2010 Sold (Public Records) $5,350,000

Prices have come down in some cases, I’m not disputing that.
My point is that the bottom has not fallen out nor do I think it will.
Let’s be clear, are you saying prices for homes in Shady Canyon will break the $2M threshold?

Lee thanks for spending the time to prove tenmagnets point with data.

Oh no It’s the end of the world $5M homes are now selling for $3.5M, whatever will Lee do?  I know spend some time posting data the proves the point, and is basically irrelevant to 99.99% working stiffs.

Oh no It’s the end of the world $5M homes are now selling for $3.5M, whatever will Lee do?

LoL ... 1.5 million ... You’re funny.

Oh Hey, check out Redfin ... the difference between the listing price and selling price is wider now than anytime since the bubble went POP.

FYI~
$652 listing per sq feet
$458 selling per sq feet

I don’t know if this will work, but I’ll try:

<div    
  class=“redfin_widget”
  server=“http://www.redfin.com”
  api_server=“http://api.redfin.com”    regi   regi   regi Canyon”    regi   regi
  widget_type=“3”    versi>
  <noscript>
      <style>
        .jsonly {display: none}
      </style>
  </noscript>
  <div 0; padding: 0; line-height: 100%;”>
      [url=“http://www.redfin.com/neighborhood/2426/CA/Irvine/Shady-Canyon” target=“_blank”  #000000; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none;”]
        Shady Canyon Real Estate
      [/url]
  </div>
  <div class=“jsonly” #000000; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold;”>
      House $/Sq.Ft.<br>
  </div>
  <div class=“redfin_widget_content”>
  </div>
  [removed][removed]
</div>

PR -

I seem to recall your “bearish” assertion in the past that prices were going to remain flat.

5M dropping to 3.5M is not flat pricing.  You can mock Lee all you want - why can’t market find more millionaires to keep the prices afloat over in Shady Canyon?

Dave,
I don’t recall you or anyone giving a buyer any credit let alone one who steps up to the plate and drops $3.5M
You called a guy “sucker” a few months back when he posted that he bought a larger place because due to his expanding family.

The market’s on fire!!!

1,021 days later, 3 different listing agents, and an original list price of $11.679 million, the house finally sells.

Yes, the “I had to buy a 3M upgrade house because I made some babies” is hogwash.  I don’t buy it.  What is more likely is “I really want a bigger house than Dick - well you know, I did just make a few babies - YES, I’ll do it for the children!”

@AZDave:
“YES, I’ll do it for the children!”

One day, you may understand how important kids become to a parent.

And if you don’t… then Darwinism worked. :D

The guy that posted and got attacked by Dave was being sincere about needing more space for his growing family.
Dave uses the children as a convenient excuse to justify blasting anyone that buys.

Tenmagnet -

I never knew you were so sensitive about people being ATTACKED!  Your buddy PR is regularly popping off on IrvineRenter and I am pretty sure that you have never had a problem with that.

Oh but that evil AZ monster called some guy a sucker. GASP IN HORROR EVERYONE!  IT INVOLVES CHILDREN!

Ten, man, you my boy but you’re wrong on this one.  Lots in Shady are closer to a million—and that’s for the pick of the inventory (i.e., view lots, larger than half an acre).  Check out 23 Tree Fern, the last to close.  Three quarters of an acre, premium view, closing price of 1.1 million.  The asking prices reflect the owners’ trying to maintain their self-respect, not a realistic market price.  Shady lots will break below $1 million before this is all over.  The tract homes in Shady will get below $2 million, and the customs will bottom out about $400-450 psf.  That’s well below replacement value.  Shady is getting creamed.

Covenant Hills now has a 1/4 acre lot listed at $379,000.  Original selling price of CVH lots was over $1mil up to $2.5mil.  The high end is getting destroyed.

There’s a bank owned lot in Covenant Hills—right across from the sales center—that was listed at 296k.  It’s in escrow now.  Was never on the MLS.  There are two more at just over 300k.  You can buy brand new customs in there for less than construction costs (sub $300 psf).  The land is essentially free.  There’s a decent chance we end up in Covenant Hills—if only I can get comfortable with Capo Unified schools.

DavePhx,

“That’s not a very scientific poll.”

Uh… do you know what “highly anecdotal” means?

And don’t let your head get too big… the majority of the posters on that forum have no idea who you are. The ones who do, are on another forum.

I’m still waiting for your evidence (doesn’t have to be “very scientific”) to prove that all the high downs and all-cash transactions are sourced from equity flips.

BTW: If, like IR contends, the majority of buyers in the New Home Collection are NOT move-up buyers… meaning they are first-time buyers—they can’t have owned a previous home for equity could they?

Most people on the forums don’t know who I am?  Then why bother attaching my name to a selection in the poll?  Just to make your buddy Graphrix giggle?

Actually… just to make me giggle. Plus you know you like it.

And sorry to say, Graphrix is not active on TalkIrvine either.

It’s been answered… you just refuse to see it.

Data will set you free.

Here’s a question for the rest of the audience:

The majority consensus is that prices have not dropped as sharply in Irvine due to government intervention. Yet, prices have dropped quite sharply in other areas (that had the same government intervention). So if there was no government intervention, would places like Riverside and Las Vegas gone negative?

To wit, based on The MoreShadowInventoryARMResetRatesRising Theory, if there are more drops to come for Irvine (which I somewhat agree with)... what does that mean for other cities who are seemingly at bottom?

So a “hard-earned” 3.5% qualifies? Yeah, in this market the way its shifted over the last 10 years, I can imagine that the massive influx of people in the 0-5% down bracket would skew the old ratio of equity buyers v. savings buyers. It really doesn’t take much to save that. Let the credit cards wrack up a bit, skimp a bit, conveniently forget a bit that dad did give you a $10k to get your over the 3.5 hump…

BOOM! I’m a hard-earning, hard-saving son of a gun!

@Frak:

If you read the link, the poll was for the people who put 20% or more down, it even says it on the poll:

“The majority was 20% or more… so if you can share… where did that moolah come from?”

Since you seem to have arrived late to the party, historically, Irvine down payments average 35-40% down, with many being all-cash.

In a city where the prices are a still bubbly, $10k isn’t even close to 3.5%, imagine how much you need to get from dad for 40%.

Fair enough. My job is to read carefully, so I actively try not to read carefully when not being paid to. It wears on you.

(BTW the $10K was not the DP, it was what the hypthetical dad gave to supplement the savings for the 3.5 DP—back when I was going down that dead end)

Still, it’d be fascinating to do the same study without the biased wording. Even not having any idea who AZDave is, I would feel dirty picking that one, because I just feel like the pollster disapproves. Plus it kind of reads like @ss-Dave, and I’m don’t want to be like @ss-Dave. You follow me?

Also, it would be all too likely that sub 20%-ers posted anyhow. Who doesn’t want to chime in? And why shouldn’t I get a vote? No one’s really asking me how much I put down. So why not!

The problem with listing “hard-earned savings” as an option we’ve covered. But it should also be noted that people’s equity is often thought of and dealt with that way (see e.g. this whole bloody website), and it would certainly be classified like that for purposes of your self-selecting survey to the extent that some savings was mixed with the equity. Any mix at all, and I’m going to choose “hard-earned” savings. BY GUM!

Plus the venue and the self-selection is problematic. Rather like me getting on my soapbox in a Utah townsquare and yelling “who here is going to vote Republican?” I’m going to get 99.9% “me” because the Democrats either aren’t there or aren’t in the mood to participate in the one sided shout out.

That’s the problem with saying “hey this is anecdotal but…” or “this isn’t scientific, but….” Anything that comes after the “but” should probably not be stated at all. Your study is a step up from me saying “hey I just totally made this up, but the vast majority in Irvine is capable of socking away $30,000 to $100,000 per year. No seriously, I asked a few Irvinites I know, partners at a law firm, and they said they could. I indicated I would be disappointed with them if they told me otherwise.” But only one step.

Hey, now that I’ve gone through that exercise, I can see why you do these studies. It’s very fun! I’ll have to think of how I can leverage it to my advantage.

:D

Frak for president

I started the same kind of poll! 

Then I called all my friends and told them how to vote so that I could point out my bullshit statistics to everybody else!

I know it was sincere - it tugged at my heart strings.  Hug?

I have no BS emotional thoughts of you either.  You’re a standup guy and not a trouser stain whatsoever.  Don’t listen to those folks who think that you are a douchebag - they know nothing.  As you know, I have said several times on here that I want to be like you in every way when I grow up and I sincerely mean that.

I sense you are having a bad day.  May tomorrow be better, and please forgive her, him, or it so that you may move on.

PR, for all your bluster, you haven’t been around here very long.  AZ David has outlasted (and occasionally converted) all the old bulls from yesteryear—take a gander through the archives, sometime.  One dude used to say that Irvine would never drop.  Then changed that to “drop more than “.  And then it dropped 30%.  Oops.

You’re fun to have around, PR, in a slow-mo train-wreck sort of way.  It certainly would be less interesting around here without you and your permabull sidekick ‘tenmagnet’.

Cheers, and pass the popcorn!

Maybe IR should keep on writing as he writes.  Maybe he has been right more than 99% of the people who give him suggestions.  And maybe all his writing is by HIS accounts and anyone with a brain realizes that.

You’re certainly welcome to your own opinion.
Everything’s subject to interpretation.
Today’s buyer feels like they got a good deal $450K off what was previously paid in ’05.
It may be of no concern to them even if the market were to drop another 10%
Popular opinion here may think that $750K for this place is a good deal.
The reality is quite different.
I guess time will tell.

Hahaaa, 2005 rollbacks are “good deals”.  That’s a good one!  How much could you rent this for, chap?  What’s it really “worth”?  If you want to divorce yourself from fundamentals, then let’s just say the house is worth 100 million dollars.

What is this, pre-housing bust days again?  You bulls are HIGH-larious.

Why will they be happy 10 years from now?  I am envisioning a whole bunch of super stoked Japenese coming off the end of their lost decade.

As an aside… can that really happen to the US?

I always see references to how we are going to become like Japan’s lost decade but is their economy really comparable to ours?

Is that like one of those “Super High Interest Rates” or “The Gov Will Never Be Able To Interfere” bogeymen?

If you look at stock market value, home values, or inflation adjusted income, aren’t we about at the end of our own lost decade right now?

Actually, the Japanese economy is NOT comparable to ours.

They’re better off in an important way, which is that their population tends to have more savings, thus much more resilience in the face of economic adversity.

We, on the other hand, are drowning in so much personal debt that we are super-dependent on “growth” and asset inflation just to eat and pay our bills.

How could we ever think that this was a good way for most people to live?

they are actually much worse off in an even important way, demographics.

Aging population with extremely low birth rate and no immigration to speak of.

That country is a slow grind to death unless they change their immigration policies/attitude.