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Your entire post is so well written - clear, logical and well-supported - it’s of the quality one might expect in a national news magazine… Bloggers like you are underrated
Too bad these “Hazard guys” will get the MSM coverage, while your opinion (facts!) on the matter are only viewed by a few thousand of us over coffee in the morning.
Maybe it’s because I’m in the business, but I can’t find a single conclusion of yours to argue - yet the Harvard guy’s argument is that is was a “strange cocktail” of which he fails to mention a single ingrediant - that caused the “mysterious” bubble.
I’m feeling a little better about NOT being Harvard Material right now.
That Harvard article was great. Can’t you just picture some blind pointy haired bumbling professor wanking himself in his Ivory Tower spilling coffe all over his lap?
You could drop a common sense anvil on these types of people and they would not know what hit them.
The argument is that since the professor’s economist theory cookbook contains no recipe calling for low interest rates - the bubble cannot be explained. He can’t fit the bubble to his voodoo formula so therefore it is not the culprit. As though economics were some kind of science like Physics.
It really is an embarrassment to the University’s standards. Low grade research effort. Why are these people being paid to work on crap like this? I am thinking a work furlough on this group of Hooligans would go a long way for the Univerity’s bottom line.
AZDavid,
Totally agree with your assessment of economists.
Procrustean tendency has plagued Economics profession for ages. Trying to make solutions fit the problems is nothing new. In fact that’s what modern economics is all about – making a bunch of assumptions like:
- The Earth is flat
- Consumers/investors are always rational
- Market is always efficient
- Blah, blah, blah….
Then throw in some fancy mathematical formulas and you have a nice “theory”. Common sense has never been one of the ingredients. Economists are a running joke to everyone else but themselves. If these buffoons tried a little harder their track record might catch up with astrologists or palm readers. It’s a wonder that people (especially those in our government) still bother listening to them.
I had the misfortune of wasting a couple of years of my life learning this pseudo-scientific crap, and to this day I am still attempting to purge any last trace of this garbage out of my brain. Nowadays I mainly use economists’ commentary (media love this stuff) as a contrarian measure to predict political ramifications and ensuing bad policies, and determine where to place bet accordingly.
Good comment from David and good post from IR as usual.
In any college, economics is usually where engineering dropouts would go to as alternative.
Amazingly, every year, a Nobel Prize in economics would go to one or two of these clowns.
ROTFLOL
Once upon a time, I was walking with one of my math profs (took fiziks n’ them fancy arithmetic in skool) by one of the economics lecture halls.
We peeked inside and on the board they had all of these graphs but not a single equation.
My prof dashed inside and scribbled a few nice differential equations and ran back out.
“That should keep them puzzled for a semester”..
And we went to get a beer ( I had just turned 21 then).
This is so far back….
This Harvard mumbo jumbo is what makes us collectively dumb. I remember being confused as hell in econ and while reading about the tech stock boom/bust. Assholes like this are the reason why. I would love to be an econ student now and give these guys hell.
NAR: “Hey profs, these bloggers are getting good, can we put something really confusing out to keep everyone guessing and this bear market rally going?”
Harvard profs: “We will have to put in extensive research bearing significant expense”
NAR: “We can help offset those costs”
OrangeRenter,
Thank you. Reading your comment was a great way to start my day.
Somehow, I’m not too surprised at the conclusions of the Harvard study. It’s not because I agree with it but because so many other high caliber economists missed it too - including the former central bank chairman Mr. Greenspan. The combination of low interest rates and lax underwriting including low or zero down payments - created what engineers call the “Resonance” phenomenon which caused prices in certain market to go to amplitudes higher than expected by a single stimulation.
And loose lips don’t sink ships either….
Exactly. It wasn’t the lips that sank the boat, it was a torpedo. But the torpedo wouldn’t have found it’s way to the boat without the leaked info.
So in a way, the Harvard egg heads are correct… it wasn’t the bad loans, it was the willingness of buyers to use those bad loans and over bid that caused the bubble. But as IR has pointed out before, desire is not demand.
Sort of like how you have the classic combination of motive + means + opportunity making one a suspect in a crime. Motive is the greed of someone beliving in ever expanding home prices. Means is a no money down option ARM loan so that they can make the payment (for a while), and opportunity is the lax lending standards where a bank is willing to right a NINJA / Liar Loan.
Oh… And “stunning curb appeal”? Hello?? I can see the photo! It’s a square pink box with a bunch of concrete in front.
It’s embarassing that someone can bullsh*t like that as a “licensed professional” who stands to make $30,000 off this “deal”!
If you call a lime green pinto “bitchin” to enough prospects, eventually somebody comes along and says, “totally bitchin” and buys it.
Getting kicked in the head by a mule is stunning as well.
Nice DTI updated chart. Looks like we are back in the green region in 2009. That explains a lot.
Yes, it does. If we were in the green due to stable mortgage interest rates, I might be celebrating. However, since we are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle and coming off a massive Federal Reserve intervention to lower rates, it is difficult to be bullish.
I would say it’s near impossible to be bullish. However a bearish scenario where home prices only go up 5% in total over the next 5 years is certainly possible. That’s the mild bear scenario.
That would be my prediction. Low overall inflation for the next five years or so, with housing prices to match.
I cringe with embarrassment for them as well; and I cringe with moral fear as I am exposed to moral risk. You have written often about moral hazard; well the report makes me aware that I constantly come in contact with people who do not have the facts. They and I do not share the same value system. By coming in contact with them, I can experience moral corruption.
Resale Home Price ... $950,000 and Home Purchase Price … $1,148,000 ... I have to ask where, just where has our society gone? I live in Bellingham, WA, and I keep hearing that homes are overpriced at $273,000. I think a million dollars for housing is very overpriced. Million dollar homes is what happens when there is Option Arms lending, and second and even third loans handed out like candy. There was a lot of commission money made at mortgage brokers, FirstFed, Wachovia, and at Wall Street Banks on CDOs.
I know of a migrant farm worker who walked into Washington Mutual and got a stated income loan for a $750,000 home in Riverside County. The officers at WaMu and other toxic lenders should be held accountable; but they will not be; their only judge will be The Almighty come Judgement Day; I truly fear for them. Too bad they don’t read blogs like this; they are probably enjoying their retirement years out of the country.
Yes it is true greed and fear are the features that move market prices. What we really need is to learn how to cool the engines; instead, we strive to go faster and we blow the engine apart ... We are on the verge of the engine blowing apart!!!
You write: our problem is too much debt, and foreclosure is the solution. When policy makers finally realize this, perhaps they will get out of the way and allow the cleansing foreclosures to go forward. We can only wait and hope.
Please, please, please understand, we have an even greater problem: I write in the referenced blog article, Soon There Will Not Be Any US Treasury Funds Available For Home Mortgages, that a tidal wave Of home loans are resetting just as the stock market and bond market are beginning to tank. There will not be enough credit available through the US Treasury to keep funding the Fredie Mac, Fannie Mae and FHA guaranteed loans which now account for over 90% of all mortgages.
Dr. Housing Bubble presents the chart of home mortgages that will reset in 2010, 2011 and 2012.
This conincides with the stock market turning down and credit default swaps on sovereign debt rising, and currencies falling, which portends a recession if not hyperinflation and a second great depression.
The only result can be strategic defaults skyrocketing from the current 12%. There will not be enough mortgage capital available in the debt market place to fund these loans as they come due; either the properties will go vacant or they will be leased.
Please, please understand, leasing not mortgaging, will be the way people will be living in homes, as investors simply are not going to be funding US or any nations sovereign debt.
One can click on the reference link to see the debt charts for Aggregate Debt, High Yield Corprate Debt, Municipal Bond Debt, Emerging Market Bonds, and the Ten Year US Govenment Note: they have all topped out!
Did you ride the wave up on any of thes investments which came courtesy of Uncle Ben’s TARP and Quantative Easing, as well as 0.25% interest rate carry trade loans courtesy of the Sumitomo Bank and the Bank of Japan?
Dude, this is Irvine, not WA. Everybody makes lots of money and can afford $1M homes. :D
I’m being sarcastic, but there is an ounce of truth to that statement. There’s a premium, and apparently some people feel it’s worth it.
I’ve lived in Irvine for five years, in a house that was purchased near the last housing bottom in the mid 90s. It’s a nice city (especially when you have a 1/2 asian child) but personally to me it’s not worth the premium that it’s currently fetching (renting or buying).
As many astute observers have pointed out over the past week or so, as bad as the USA is, we’re better off than many other countries around the world.
I’m going to do some research and invest heavily in the suppliers of inks, papers, and machinery to the US Mint.
I think they also wrote in 2007 that there was no housing bubble, and probably in 2008 that ‘subprime was contained’. Why do people give forum to those that were so wrong previously?
“Harvard’s Joint Center on Housing finds little to fuel fears of a bursting bubble”
As much looking as I want to do.
We totally need a graphic for a “Chefs Island”
I would also add that the complete ignoring of owner-occupancy in mortgage underwriting was a bubbling factor. You had speculators getting mortgages that were intended for actual resident-owners.
Getting a 5% or 10% DP loan for a speculative investment? I guess that’s what they teach at HBS.
Any serious analysis also needs to break things down geographically. How many North Dakotans were taking out pick-a-payment loans with 40% DTI’s on a 2nd home in their new subdivision? Any? I’ll be you could look and not find a single one. Now how many in Dade Cty FL? Thousands.
Nah. These guys do good work. They are able to walk into a shambled room covered in crushed peanut husks with a big giant elephant sitting on the couch and conclude that the elephant was not involved in the mess. That takes some real talent if you ask me.
If the Harvard researcher thing doesn’t work out for the professor, I have a great idea for his next job.
IR, if that article blows your mind, check out this:Was it really a bubble?
Thank you. I may use that article tomorrow. Clueless professors are fun targets because they are as arrogant as they are ignorant.
The worst part is they’re spreading their ignorance. It will take all the strength of my stomach to read the whole article.
An entire nation’s educated population has been indoctrinated by their ignorance. And this ignorance votes and runs the country.
I always pretended to agree with professors to stroke them. Why argue and risk the chance of a lower grade?
This is another ‘sole cause’ vs. ‘ingredient’ straw-man. Some of the increase in prices could have been due to market fundamentals, HOWEVER, not nearly all of it was.
Mulligan’s conclusion was in his head before he looked at the data: But another interpretation is that a large fraction of the housing price boom was justified by fundamentals (and next week I’ll consider some of the specific fundamentals that may have permanently increased housing demand in the 2000s). If so, we are probably asking too much of the Federal Reserve and other regulators to accurately disentangle bubbles from fundamentals the next time that asset prices rise.
The Fed should ignore asset price inflation and cede its duties of bank regulation to the market. Whatever facts are needed for support that might be missing can be made up or ignored.
This whole ‘ingredient in the cocktail’ vs. ‘sole driver’ is BS. There was no ‘sole driver’, it was a Kool-Aid-Cocktail. However, you could probably write down 10 things, nearly half related to mortgage underwriting, and you’d get a cocktail tasting pretty close to the housing bubble.
The debt to income ratios from 1978 to 1983 make the housing bubble look small. This is very sobering.
could you enlighten us as to why they were so high during that period?
“Clueless professors are fun targets because they are as arrogant as they are ignorant. “
Classic!
This is by far THE BEST QUOTE OF THE DAY!
On the subject property, it seems well priced for TODAY’S market considering it’s 3,536 sq.ft in a nice area of Irvine. Still, a buyer had better have a very secure monthly household income to cover the 5,477 monthly payment he/she/they are stuck with, possibly for the next 30 years.
What would be a bad area of irvine?
No bad areas in Irvine as far as I know. Maybe I should have said newer? There are many housing structures in Irvine that are not that distinguished but still ok because “Location, Location, Location…”.
someone once told me to buy the worst house in the best neighborhood. A bad area of Irvine would be similar to this example.
The flats by the railroad tracks.
This house is in Tustin USD, not IUSD…loss of Irvine schools is a *huge* factor.
Those train tracks go by another name…Culver drive.
Nice to see some Harvard prof with a Fields medal on his wall dip his toe in the real world, only to have IR go all Good Will Hunting on his ass. Wonder how he likes them apples.
So I’m a little disconcerted with the effect of the Federal bailout programs on the local markets. I had planned to be prepared to purchase a home sometime between summer of 2011 and summer of 2012. Should I reconsider?
Whether you purchase now, in 2011, or 2012 is unlikely to matter much given the affordable nature of the debt to income curve.
I don’t want to buy a home now and lose $200k in equity in a year.
If you aren’t basing your decision on debt to income affordability it won’t make sense for you to buy in 2010, 2011, or 2012. I’m not sure it will ever make sense for you to buy since you can never eliminate all risk in buying or deciding not to buy.
I don’t think that’s right. I’m basing my decision on not losing hundreds of thousands of dollars by buying at the wrong time. Had I bought this year, or last year, that would have been what fate had in store for me…regardless of my debt to income analysis.
Prices are up versus last year. If you had bought this time last year in Irvine you would be up 5-10%. This may not hold but that’s a fact.
You can buy now and take on a high amount of debt (due to artificially low rates keeping prices high).
You can buy later and take on less debt (higher rates put downward pressure on prices).
Either way your payment will be fairly similar.
I think the cool thing about buying when rates are higher is it gives you the chance to refinance to a lower rate in the future. Can we agree that rates are cyclical and have been too low for too long?
I have chosen to not believe this “hyped false bottom” in prices because I have common sense and use it. Unemployment, defaults, shadow inventory, artificially low rates, buyer credits, the list is a mile long. Unless we see rampant, runaway inflation (in wages) in the very near future, this is not the bottom.
Is your boss ready to give you a 10% raise next year just because?
It is easy to be fooled by snapshot analyses and crackpot “experts” lack of sound reason.
If your wife wants a home, then by all means, get one tomorrow.
As I said above, more or less flat prices would be my medium term (5 to 10 years) prediction. This would involve no equity loss (or significant gain).
My recommendation (for what little it is worth) is as follows:
1. If you plan on living in the same house for at least five years, perferably ten or more, buying now is fine, but take your time and look for the perfect property at the perfect price. No rush.
2. If you live in an area where rents are significantly higher than monthly payments, you might as well buy now as well, even if there’s a chance you might move sooner than five years. Irvine would not qualify-most areas that do are on the fringe (deserts, Inland Empire, etc.).
3. If you plan on moving within five years and don’t live in a place with high rents compared to monthly payments, renting is the best move.
I agree completely. Given the current debt to income ratios and current rental parity relatively flat prices are the most likely scenario given income increases for buyers, interest rates, and possible inflation. Everything ties together to keep prices relatively flat. Five years from now prices may be up 5% or down 10% but we are likely to be in that range.
Worth less that little and less than worthless.
Has anyone been keeping up with the Goldman Sachs senate hearings? There are lots of emails within Goldman Sachs talking about “clueless senators who don’t understand what we do” or the like. Traders are sick of people who “don’t understand’ what they do criticizing what they do. Recently, Greenspan was found to have stated that the fed doesn’t want the common person learning about the housing bubble because they “don’t understand.”
Louis Black said it best: we don’t have to understand. If your business takes more than one sentence to explain what it does, it’s illegal.
IrvineRenter: “All causes of the housing bubble must be explained by their impact on loan terms and standards.”
The analysis should not stop here. Next question is why lenders had to change loan terms and standards. IMHO, there was damn good reason.
“The analysis should not stop here. Next question is why lenders had to change loan terms and standards. IMHO, there was damn good reason.”
I agree there was a “good” reason. If they did not change the loan terms, then the bubble would have popped sooner, so they decided to pretend and extend and hope for the best…
February 2010:
- US export = $143.2 billion
- US import = $182.9 billion
- US international trade deficit = $39.7 billion
http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html
How to finance the deficit?
If nobody wants to work then somebody has to pull money out of thin air.
Housing bubble has been carefully engineered. It was really bright idea to print collateralized mortgage obligations instead of dollars or other papers.
Housing bubble ended, but we still need money. Lets simply print more dollars. So bailout has been carefully engineered.
The biggest question is - “What’s next?”.
When I hear anything associated with Harvard University I recall the great William F. Buckley’s quote: “I’d rather be governed by the first 2000 names of the Boston phone book than by the faculty of Harvard.”
DTI limits? Between 2004-2007ish DTI limits were old thinking. It was at that time a new economy, one where trees grew to the sky and limitless equity was yours by simply fogging a mirror at the mortgage office. Stated Stated near zero down, followed by stated stated 1% option ARMS (5% actual rate compounding monthly…)allowed a major conflagration grow into something akin to the Dresden firestorm of WW2.
I have a jug of STFU in my fridge at home. It’s best swallowed along with a shot of GBTW. The people who composed this report need to seek another line of work. They should not be teaching economics, logic, reasoning, or anything else except “coloring book principals for beginners”.
My .02c
Soylent Green Is People.
Maybe it was Harvard City College…lots of people go there.
This is just the beginning. The world is starting to realize that all fiat currencies are crap. the USD is the worst of all and it is only a matter of time before folks realize it.
By the time they realize it and load up on gold, governments will tax the crap out of it.
Hate to break this to you, Congressman Paul, but gold is already overpriced. Recommending people to buy gold today is like recommending people to real estate in 2006. “Fiat currencies” are here to stay. The American government ain’t going anywhere.
Time to load up in bongs…
Yep. BONGS.
We’ll make a killing when pot gets decriminilized.
Come on down sir… try this here bong. Made with the best recycled CDO paper notes. Once worth a billion. We paste them together, lacquer them and make them into something useful.
Why! This one here is made with genuine Florida CDOs. That one there, the most expensive, the tallest, is made with CDOs from the Irvine North Korea Towers.
Bongs… as the world burns I’ll make lots of money… MONEY….
Gold is just another item shysters hawk on late nite infomercials, like making millions buying foreclosed or tax delinquent properties,exercise equipment or push-up bras and male enhancement pills.
that’s right Geotpf. fiat currencies and the american gov/t are here to stay and print OUR savings away.
There is no disciplinary check. None. There is no political will to stop the printing because of voters like YOU.
I vote with my pocketbook and vote no confidence on our current politicians and our currency. Fundamentally, they both suck.
Major Schade: I’ve heard one can pay cash for gold coins up to about $4K and stay under the radar. Repeat process until you have very few dollars. when you need cash, exchange coins. Taxing a capital gain incurred due to gov/t created inflation is theft. Reagan actually spoke on this topic a few times and he is right.
Regarding speculation, it matters not if something is over or underpriced right now; it matters that you understand which way the tide is flowing and why. Dad thought real estate was overpriced in 2003 but did not understand exotic financing/lax lending/etc and the effects it would have on demand and price. Geotpf thought gold was overpriced but does not understand that fed giving money to banks and banks getting 3% treasury returns is inflationary, not magic. Everything they are doing is diluting the value of the dollar and creating a bigger bust down the road. gold will go up. It is likely gold will reach mania/delusion status. We are nowhere near that status currently.
Re: The DTI ratio
Was there a government study which concluded that the most stable mortgages are those where the DTI’s are 25-32%?
I would like to reference it in my letters to elected officials on why some should be prosecuted for treason for this mess.
Unrelated to the blog entry, but definitely related to the blog. Found this in my email this morning http://www.virtualonlineeditions.com/publication/?i=35011
After reading that, I was immediately put at ease. Buy in Irvine now, or be priced out forever!
Professors in business, economics and pol. science are to support the systems and set new trends and train future leaders, esp those in foreign countries. The latter being of utmost importance at Harvard. Hard science professors are for discovery and setting new trends (doesn’t have to be right, just new, popular and trend setting).
Using my HP12C, with a constant monthly mortgage payment on a 30 year amortizing loan, with these interest changes the loan amount can increase
Starting at 8% (100,000 loan at early 1991 rate)
to 5%, 49% increase (149,000 loan)
to 3%, 90% increase (190,000 loan)
If interest only at 3%, 219% increase (319,000 loan).
Interest was about 14% in the 1980’s.
to a come on 3% interest only come on loan”
468,500 loan possible.
Through on some inflation and almost all the price increase can be account.
ex-HMS
ex-HMS. good thing you left before you took any econ classes.
from a letter from TIC to all residents of Woodbury dated May 4, 2010:
“In fact, since the neighborhoods known collectively as The 2010 New Home Collection debuted in late January, nearly 400 homes have been purchased, a clear sign that the recession is over - and a clear sign still that Woodbury remains a highly desirable place to live and raise a family”.
I’m sure all the people with NODs in Woodbury are rejoicing now that the “recession is over”! TIC, since the recession is over maybe then you wouldn’t mind helping all the underwater Woodbury homedebtors?