Irvine Housing Blog

Most of the readers of this blog would choose Irvine over Riverside. But your assertion that the Irvine premium goes up while other competing properties decline in value is beyond crazy. I recognize many of your comments are wishful thinking and justifying your own decision, but think for a moment about what you are saying.

If houses drop to $100K in Riverside or perhaps $300K in Lake Forest, you honestly believe that will cause prices to go up here in Irvine? Premiums are relative to alternatives, and the substitution effect is very real.

I can tell you from clients who have contacted us that a great many people would prefer Irvine, but when they see what they can get in Lake Forest or Tustin or some other nearby community they often buy there. The substitution effect works. It will continue to put pressure on rational buyers.

Now, if you want to argue that irrational people will continue to drive prices up in Irvine, I can’t argue with that. You are living proof.

I would choose Irvine over Riverside, but at the right price I would buy in Riverside.

Having seen the kind of people that live in Irvine, and tasted of their bile, I think that it’s about sixes for me.

There are some beautiful estates in Riverside… just check out some of the Riverside Bubble blog’s entries and you’ll know what I mean.

For me, it’s the commute that makes it not yet viable.  But, if they’re giving away estates there, I’ll take one and live there.  How much are the tolls now?

Chuck

A Castle in Corona?

http://lansner.freedomblogging.com/2010/04/07/a-10-million-castle-in-corona/61665/

The premium for high end goods will continue to increase as long as our economic growth continues to be based on bubbles.  This has been an undeniable trend.  The difference between the price of a Rolex watch and the cheapest watch continues to increase.

I agree that currently Tustin and Lake Forest are rational substitutes for Irvine.  The premium between those areas can increase just as the premium for a Prada bag can increase as wealth disparity increases.

All you need to do is line up your potential Riverside neighbor with your Irvine neighbor to change your mind.

If that doesn’t change your mind try lining up your childs Riverside classmates with his Irvine classmates.

This will change your mind before you even consider commuting or the weather difference.

There is no apples to apples comparison.  The premium is already far different than it was even 4 years ago.

Seriously, you somehow think that people are dispecable based on the neighborhood they live in?

It’s a self selecting process.  You can already buy a house in Riverside for the same cost as your Irvine cash down payment.  Really how much cheaper does it have to get?

PR,

People who live in Irvine are just like the people who live in Riverside, only their zip codes are different.  To somehow deduce that people in Irvine are in some way superior to those in Riverside is hubris.

Riverside has some beautiful land and homes.  It seems like you say the worst home in Irvine is better than the best home in Riverside.  That’s being divorced from reality.

Chuck Ponzi

“If that doesn’t change your mind try lining up your childs Riverside classmates with his Irvine classmates.”

You are so out of touch here.  So let’s say you will buy in Riverside.  Will you go to one of the predominately minority neighborhoods and buy?  No.  You will buy in one of the neighborhoods that you feel comfortable and you would then feel comfortable with your schools.  In any city or neighborhood, if your kid wants to hang around with losers, that is because he has something in common with them.  You should stop talking about things you know nothing about.

irvine kids have faster cars and better drugs. each generation increasingly moves away from its old culture frugality.  Germans, Chinese, you name it. I think i am pretty cheap, but grandpa puts me to shame.

The desire for younger generations to squander wealth is strong.  i think we will be forced to change in the future.

I agree with PR. It’s not about good humans and bad humans, it’s all about MONEY. Where there is money, there is good schools, good social upkeep, and usually a higher inclination to get further education.

The funny thing is, all the people saying “How dare you say something like that?” are the exact same people who would NEVER move into a piss poor community like most of the IE has become.

Our school system caters to the lowest common denominator (no kid left behind!!!) and do you think the kids in Irvine or the kids in IE will be at a higher education level for their age?

Like PR said, it is inevitable. Personally, I just see this as a manifestation of the two class, two party system I see being enacted in America.

My education received in a rural Iowa public school is not that much different from the best schools in Irvine.  The motivation to do well is not different either.

It matters not how much money you have, but your access to quality education at a price you can afford.

many here want to invoke the china mirage.  Fine, look at china.  People there also gain excellent education while having little money.

Money does not rid one of stupidity.  One only need look at Irvine to confirm that simple truth.

Chuck Ponzi

I would not commute either, but at the right price I would work in Riverside, or retire.  I do not know the names of the streets or nighborhoods, but there are some $mil neighborhoods there.  The neighborhood my mom grew up in, Casa Blanca, is not one of them and I do know the street names there.

Sorry… even at $1… I wouldn’t live in Riverside. It’s not just about price… it’s location too… closeness to friends, family, work and play.

I think some of you are not being honest here, homes in Riverside are already cheap enough to buy and pay less than it would to rent a 1BR in Irvine. Why haven’t you moved yet?

Upheaval of your life isn’t just about dollar per sft.

And while some may find Lake Forest and Tustin as a good substitute… I don’t think those areas are discounted enough. Summit Crest in Lake Forest has brand new 3000sft homes for $700k with no Mello Roos… yet we would probably rather buy a 2100sft motorcourt home in the dense 2010 HK Collection.

This is very true.  There are some fairly high end, new neighborhoods in Riverside, such as Mission Grove, which would be indistiguishable from Irvine (other than larger lot sizes).  The schools in these newer areas are on par, or damned close to it, to Irvine’s (although I think this is due to students and their parents as opposed to anything actually being special with their schools-or Irvine’s, for that matter).  There are also some high end historical neighborhoods, such as Wood Streets and Victoria, that don’t exist in Irvine, but would not be that out of place in something like Beverly Hills.

There is also a “barrio” (Casa Blanca) and a “ghetto” (Eastside).  I would not want to live in either neighborhood for a wide variety of reasons.

I live in one of the neighborhoods that is in between the two extremes.

Riverside also has it’s own little “ghost estate”, Riverwalk Vista, on the corner of Indiana and La Sierra, across the street from the La Sierra Metrolink station.  They graded the lots, built the clubhouse and pool and a couple dozen houses, then boarded everything up and it’s just sat vacant for about three years now.

What do you think 200 points is?

LOL the absurd arrogance makes it even better.

Are you willing to accept that if a mere 200 points led to the collapse of the currency the currency would have already collapsed?

The notional value of outstanding OTC interest rate contracts as estimated by the BIS is about $500 trillion.  A 100 point change in interest rates would cause a transfer of $5 trillion, the vast majority of which would be in default.  The notional value of all the credit default swaps existant that brought the financial world to a cliff was less than $20 trillion in 2007.

Darn, I almost forgot.  That $500 trillion of interest rate contracts are written on a total bond amount of $82.2 trillion.

You still didn’t answer the question.  Let me change the question for you:

If I were to flip a coin, heads the currency collapses, tales the currency does not collapse, doesn’t the currency collapse before my coin flip?

You are missing a key point in your logic.

Gross or net?  The great majority of outstanding contracts net out.  Still, on a net basis, it’s large.