Irvine Housing Blog

Wouldn’t a picture of the outside be appropriate?  I know I’m a rube from the sticks, but for a half million dollars I would like to see more than 2 pictures of the place.
——-

HAHAHA Awesome April Fool’s joke! I remember on an episode of Jackass where the guy did the same sort of thing, pudding in the diaper. . . he took it out of a trashcan in a park and started eating it in front of people, absolutely revolting!

A follow-up from a previous post regarding 2 New Market in West Irvine:  The property closed this past Friday for $545K. 

For the record there were indeed 6 offers:
#1 for $500K
#2 for $555K (sellers should’ve taken it. Buyers went instead to P.S.)
#3 for $500K
#4 for $540K
#5 for $450K
and finally
#6 for $545K which is where it sold.

I think that means I owe beentheredonethat $5 for coming closest.  I may still just put it in IR’s tip jar because you were still $20K off.

I live in Woodbury and drive by all the For Sale signs everyday.  I am amazed at the idiocy of people thinking they’re going to get $400+ per SF for their home. Talk about something that’s not gonna happen.

I expect the number of signs out this spring is going to be simply amazing.

IR:

You got great wife and MIL especially on Fool’s day.

Literally entire Woodbury built after 2005 is upside down.

And, the asking price is still 20-25% too high.

What do you think rental equivalent might be on this - craigs list looks like 2 bed in woodbury going for between 2000 to 2500 month.  Using 160 value should be between 300,000 and 400,000.  Getting close?

I rent similar size to this at IAC only three bedrooms and prices like this are getting close to equaling my rent. 

Not that I am looking to buy a two bedroom condo!

Today’s post reminds me of one particular day in Kindergarten when our class was walking to the library for a hearing test. Since the library was located at the west wing of school while kindergarden was located on the east wing the walk seemed like a journey of a hundred miles for a five year old.

About half way through the walk as my legs were tiring, a friend of mine walking next to me spotted a leprechaun and exclaimed “LOOK! Up there, on the flag pole, there’s a leprechaun!” I had heard all about leprechauns in books and movies—especially about how they had big pots of gold. Perhaps if I could capture one I could get a big pot of gold. I instantly imagined the endless number of Frito’s, Twinkies, and chocolate milk I could buy with that big pot of gold…

As I craned my head high to look at the flag pole, eager to get my first glimse at a real leprechaun, several seconds passed—scanning the flag pole, waiting for the wind to blow the flag in another direction to reveal the little green man and his pot of gold—but to my disappointment there was nothing there…

Again my friend exclaimed “THERE! Over there down the hall by the cafeteria! See him?” My tired, rubbery five year old stride quickened as I scanned the hall way down to the cafeteria, searching desperately for the eluding leprechaun…“Where is it? I don’t see it.” I said. My friend replied excitingly “He just vanished! They’re fast! You’ve got to be fast to see them!”

As we approached the library, now just around the next corner, I remember thinking to myself “Why can’t I see the leprechauns? How come he can see them but I can’t?” At first I was frustrated with myself. In my mind I knew exactly what leprechauns looked like and what their pot of gold looked like, but if I couldn’t see them in real life, were they really real?

Just then as I took my last steps towards the library I realized that perhaps, just perhaps, leprechauns weren’t real, and my friend was making everything up. I can remember how tempted I was to play along in the fantasy and start pointing out leprechauns and their pots of gold myself.

But alas, playtime was over and filed into the library. It was time for this Kindergartner to get to work.

Last leases of this model were $2,200 and $2,295 this year.

Personally, I like Woodbury and would really enjoy living there.  Another 25% - 35% down and I’m there.  Late 2008 to early 2010 should be ideal.

#6 at $545K = April Fool!

Shame on you, why did you let #2 walk
What happened to ABC?
Should’ve offered the Van Halen tickets like I told you instead of the lame $20 Starbucks gift card.

What is the deal?  This house consists of a kitchen and a living room? 

That’s it?

Nice living room picture(s).  That fireplace might as well be in the hallway or garage.  You can’t put it into perspective with the rest of the room.

Nice staging with the boat too.

Not much effort being put into the marketing here.  I would not want to pay 6% for that.

2200.00 to rent a 1300 square foot apartment!

That’s rich!

Too funny!

Here are a couple of people who might be interested, although I doubt they can afford such high rent right now.  Looks like rent prices may have to start coming back down to reality over there as the bubbly jobs start going away.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/31/news/economy/copes/index.htm?postversion=2008033105

Great prank, IR.  I’m sure there are some other good April Fool’s jokes out there—I started a thread for people to share them.

AZDave and I will have to suffer the sneers of you Irvine folks for this, but here’s a link to a catastrophe in the Tucson area—collapse of values in the quite classy retirement community of Green Valley.  Houses sold at auction for 140K that a couple of years ago were going for 230.

http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/biz-topheadlines/232239.php

How very awful to be (a) the developer or (b) the retiree down the street who was counting on being able to take out a reverse mortgage if things got tight.

“Since he lost his job, Kent has gotten a real estate license and is trying to start a business selling the rapidly increasing inventory of foreclosed homes in Orange County, Calif. Mysti is trying to build an online business selling jewelry and beachwear, some of which she designs herself.”

Wow.  What is he thinking?  And her - shouldn’t she be able to get another help desk manager job somewhere in a less expensive market?

“Hi there, I’d like to make a full price offer” ! 

“April Fools”.

IR,

Two of the fundamental indicators of home values I see you refer to are:

1. GRM
2. The correlation between inflation and housing prices (and the projected correction which will bring housing prices back in line with inflation).

It would be great to see a line under “Equity Burn” that shows the likely value of the home at the bottom of the correction (assuming history, as always, will repeat itself and the two above mentioned indicators are reliable benchmarks).

I know this is unlikely to happen but it sure would be encouraging to see a listing like this one with a bottom line of $256k instead of an utterly ridiculous $449k.  What kind of fool would pay near half a million dollars for a condo in Irvine?

#2 must have been reading this blog…

If only I’d remembered that A-B-C idiom.  No coffee for me that day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TROhlThs9qY

I’m guessing that in a less expensive market, there will not be houses with Pacific ocean views and lifestyles that require monthly payments 10,000+ will not be sustainable.

At least he traded in the Corvette for the Suburban.  That should save them lots of money.

She’s home making jewelry and bathing suits so they’ll be just fine. After all, wasn’t it Cheney in the last Bush recession that said that people are making good livings by selling on Ebay?

Thanks for the link, JHill.

I wouldn’t worry too much. 

Most of the people who buy down there are retirees from bubbly markets anyway.

I’m sure the majority of the original buyers who overpaid bought using bubble equity from a house somewhere else so their loss is a paper loss.  They could absorb it.

I doubt there is a lot of creative financing out there too.

They can absorb it.

Nice post, I’m glad to see you caught that.
There maybe hope for you.
Remember, next time more Alec Baldwin, less Richard Simmons, got it.

Are you saying the seller’s trip to Palm Springs cost them 10 grand?

LOL!  Hillarious!

Hey, can I post that one next year?  (I’ll let you use it again the following year).

I love it!

Even though I get blog flogged everytime I talk prices, I’ll go ahead and say that if CA comes back down to reality with the rest of the country and people have to start actually paying for houses with their own money (on non-bubbly incomes) rather than continuously taking out larger and larger credit lines than the previous buyer -

People are going to realize that apartments like this are probably not worth more than 150K to 175K.

We all know that Irvine rests on sacred ground and all the locals pay the premium, etc etc.  That all being said -

The California average salary is a bubbly byproduct of the housing bubble.  It should not be a surprise that Average salaries are going to drop as it all deflates. 

As the bubbly jobs start to leave CA, there are going to be more and more people willing to work for less money.  People on inflated salaries will be slowly phased out/laid off and replaced with people willing to work for less (who can now afford a deflated house price on a lower income).

As costs of housing drop, costs of rent are going to drop.

It’s only a matter of time.  It all depends on how long the companies can afford to keep selling the product and paying the bubbly salaries which may prove difficult in the context of recession.

It’s not even a job.  She’s making him go out and get a job while she hangs out at home and “works” on her hobbies.

Another marriage soon to come to a divorce court near you!

No, sorry.  The buyers opted to spend their money on a new build in Portola Springs, the “other” P.S.

Sorry if this question is not within today’s discussion realm.

21 Bolias #38, MLS #M109322, is on sale for $486k whereas the last sold price went for $595k in April 07.

The quote for this property:

Another Great Irvine Condo With Over 1800 S.F., And 4 Bedrooms And Attached 2 Car Garage, Being Sold In As Is Condition. All Information Deemed Reliable But Not Guaranteed. All Buyers To Satisfy Themselves As To All Aspects Of The Property.

So is this a short sale or what? There’s no picture inside so I’m assuming that the previous owner trashed this place.

IR or anyone, can you find out what’s going on with this property? At $259/sf, it’s low at this point (but can possibly go lower, ya know )

Chris

Why don’t you say the same wrt Manhattan? Oh I forgot, that is more sacred than Califor-nah.

Good one. Was your friend a realtor :-O?

Agree with AZDavid - I just don’t think that Irvine - or Southern Ca for that matter - deserve the cost premium they have.  I grew up in So. CA but in my adult life have lived a number of places - in my personal opinion So. CA is getting worse and worse. 

I think that some of the CA bubble may have come off of the low property taxes - 1% is not pretty good compared the other places I have owned homes.  Who knows if the state will be able to maintain these low taxes…

Chris_Silicon_Valley -

I am very glad that you mentioned Manhattan.  Thank you.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=ahgWx1z6LFxE&refer=patrick.net

The April 2007 sale of $595K was when 21 Bolinas went back to Wells Fargo…  Wells is not showing it as an active REO on their site though.  Weird.  MLS listing also says “Will consider lease” so maybe a flipper/investor bought this one from Wells when it was REO?

Chantilly is one of the streets I am keeping an eye on, there are so many properties for sale on this street and they are all under water. This street will be a good example of how far down prices are really going to end up at, all the sellers keep reducing, and still no takers.

It won’t be long and every homeowner in Woodbury will be underwater.

I live here and will say that Socal isn’t worth the premium, at least Los Angeles isn’t…  Other than the weather and the ocean I actually think it should be cheaper to live here; massive crime, massive crowding, poor air quality, illegals running rampant, etc.  As I always say, I’d move except I need an ocean because I surf and the video games industry is heavily embedded in Socal, so don’t anyone give me any of the “If you don’t like it gtfo” nonsense.  Everything will fall, regardless of the bs rally on wall street today.

There was a house up the street from my parents’ house in Anthem that someone bought at peak for $1mil+ (which is retarded for that area, their neightborhood isn’t THAT nice) and they couldn’t get rid of it for 50% off.  Not sure if it has sold or not, I quit tracking it a couple months ago.  There is definitely blood in the streets out in AZ.  They’re building a massive apartment complex in Anthem now too…  I’m sure the locals must be thrilled about that.

My grandmother moved into a retirement home recently, leaving a house in Sun City West that we had to sell.  It sat and sat, then I finally convinced my mom to drop the price 15%.  It sold within the next 2 weeks, and I think we’re REALLY lucky that happened.  I was expecting a 30% haircut off of the initial listing price.

agreed. with everything you said.  Woah.

Does anyone know what the housing market is like in North San Diego?My husband and I really like the Encinitas/Del Mar area…wonder if prices are dropping the way they are in Orange County….

Great comment: “How very awful to be (a) the developer or (b) the retiree down the street who was counting on being able to take out a reverse mortgage if things got tight.”

You heard it here: The next big real-estate-implosion will be in the reverse-mortgage markets c. 2015-2020 when “investor funds” become insufficient to cover the costs of supporting the masses that “refuse to die”.

Part-II: In this blog is a recurring reference that flippers who used 100% financing (slight paraphrase)...  “...lose nothing”.

Au contraire. They lose (at least) the difference between the mortgage payment and a comparable rent (or smaller/cheaper “affordable” home). This I estimate at $20K/year (after the tax-break) or more.

In retrospect, the flippers who *bailed out fast* were the smart ones. Whether they walked-away or short-sold, “cut your losses” has always been a prudent business strategy.

Part-III: Being “truly retired” I spend a lot of time nosing-around Laguna Beach (g/f lives there). I continue to be stunned not only by the amount of grown-ups still flailing in the RE business, but Truly Horrified by the numbers of young 20-somethings staking out there turf in some real estate “niche”. Idiots. GET A JOB!

Not in Del Mar, yet, and I don’t think Solana has come down much yet either.  Encinitas is on its way down already, as is Carlsbad.  San Marcos and Oceanside are crashing as we speak.  IMO SD still has a long way to fall across the board.  Check out www.bubbleinfo.com for news on North SD county real estate.

Thanks Ipop

First saw this one in a video about 30 years ago—in black and white, the peanut butter the baby sat in was perfect…

“Comment by AZDavidPhx
2008-04-01 11:54:49
It’s not even a job. She’s making him go out and get a job while she hangs out at home and “works” on her hobbies.

Another marriage soon to come to a divorce court near you!
“

You NAILED that one ! And while she’s staying at home, she’ll probably start getting really fat too,  and no doubt he’ll be dumping her FAST.