Flipping Trustee Sale Houses on Speculation

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 05:49 AM

The scheme can be named something like “The Irvine Housing Lotto

Astute Observation by Tenant
2010-05-05 06:22 AM

Why only budget $500 for cash for keys?  As a former tenant in a foreclosed property, I would have laughed at that offer and stayed the 90 days allowed by Federal law.  This would have pushed your timeline back 90 days.  When our rental was on the auction block, we had many investors come by to find out as much info about our lease and the house as they could.  The bank ended up taking the property back at auction and paid us $10,000 + non-payment of rent for 6 weeks to move out.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-05-05 06:31 AM

The budget in that line item is for clean up or cash-for-keys. In this particular instance it was only for clean up. Most tenants will move out for $1,000 to $1,500. All tenants are liable for rent during any waiting period, so there is compensation to the new owner. The bank seemed pretty anxious to have you out if they made you that deal. It would have been more cost effective to wait you out, evict you, then sue you for the rent you didn’t pay.

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-05-05 07:10 AM

There is a huge difference between having money owed to you and being able to collect.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-05-05 07:54 AM

True, but the tenant is probably more solvent than the former owner. At least the tenant was used to making the payment, the squatting former owner was not.

Astute Observation by CA
2010-05-05 07:19 PM

I got $4000 for move-out, i’ve seen friends get $2500-$3500, this seems to be average on the foreclosure forums.

$10k is like a jackpot, congrats on that one.

Astute Observation by Geotpf
2010-05-05 07:11 AM

A couple grand seems typical-ten grand is way above average methinks.  Congratulations on hitting the jackpot.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 07:07 AM

First you get the money, then you get the power, then…

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 07:51 AM

I would like to see some Trustee Flips profiled that have not exactly gone as planned.  Or are the venture capitalist investors (not speculators - investors) supposed to conclude that this is a can’t lose proposition?

As far as the spreading of the risk goes, one could take this pool of Irvine venture capital and split it up into something called “traunches” where each traunch gets a different interest rate depending on the risk.  We’ll put the really crappy trustee flips in traunch 3.

I have some money to gamble and I cannot think of anything more productive to invest in than unproductive house swapping.  I am ready to recruit family, friends, and coworkers too.  Let’s get this casino rolling - why should Vegas have all the fun?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-05-05 08:00 AM

The property I profiled in Buying a Rental at Trustee Sale did not go as planned. The flipper will still probably make a little money, but not as much as they hoped.

Flipping from the wholesale market is much easier than flipping from the retail market because the entry point to the transaction is 20% lower. Retail flipping requires rampant appreciation whereas wholesale flipping requires cash plus an accurate estimate of resale value. Retail flipping merely prices families out of the market whereas wholesale flipping returns properties to the market, most often at a discount to retail.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 08:45 AM

“Wholesale flipping”

Come on now, IrvineRenter.  Do you think that 390K condos are somehow pricing families back into the market?  This notion of wholesale flipping seems more a euphemism for vulching. Your post mentions these high end “investors” who want to play in the market but need more money to get in the door.  Are these investors contacting you wanting to do God’s work and get families back into these homes?  Is it some kind of charity venture to help families who have been priced out?  These good Samaritans should stop by the observations and tell us all about it - I’d love to hear about all the families they are helping out.

These flippers are not adding anything of value to the property.  So they run a comb through the place and expect a 100K profit for all that “hard work”.

If anything, these folks are keeping prices artificially high with their speculative demand influencing the market.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-05-05 09:13 AM

The high-end buyers are people looking for a family home. The investors are people looking to make money. The idea is to make the investors money while putting buyers into homes at prices under comps. Both parties benefit from such an arrangement.

Wholesale flippers may or may not add value to the property depending on whether or not it needs renovation. They make money on the arbitrage between prices in the wholesale market and prices in the retail market. If this profit potential did not exist, banks would be buying every property at auction because no investors with cash would be interested.

The flipper making 110K on this property didn’t do very much to make that money. Basically they went to auction with some checks, signed some paperwork, perhaps did some cosmetic renovation, and now they can sell in the retail market and make much more. The flippers did not create that situation, they merely took advantage of it.

Part of what I mentioned in the post is that if a buyer had preemptively approached us and committed to buy the property before the auction, we would have purchased it and sold it to them for a discount.

I would also argue that this does not keep prices artificially high because we are returning a house to the market that has been tied up in the bank neverland of amend-pretend-extend. Releasing inventory to the market pushes prices down, not up.

I am curious, what do you think should be done with these properties? Let the banks flip them? They have to go to auction. At least I am offering buyers an opportunity to purchase under comps. Neither banks nor other flippers are doing that.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 09:43 AM

It’s not a question of what should be done with the properties - let the highest bidder take it.  What the banks need to stop doing is loaning ridiculous amounts of Ponzi scheme cash to people.  Interest rates need to go back to 8% or higher.  California should also be taxing the hell out of these flipper’s profits to prick the speculative demand that has the market running amok and on course for another crisis.

I just take exception with equating asset speculation with investing.  The capital beiing invested by these people is a malinvestment being used to pay for an unproductive activity like house swapping.  Once the flip is complete, the house’s intrinsic value remains unchanged. It may have a brand new sparkly counter in the kitchen but it’s intrinsic ability to provide shelter remains unchanged.

Releasing inventory does not bring prices down in and of itself.  Restricting credit and requiring down payments does a way better job of that.  The problem is they have created a mini bubble with the low interest rates and FHA to enable a new mutation of subprime lending which is what your investors are taking advantage of.  Without the loose credit these trustee sales would be selling for pennies on the dollar.

Astute Observation by Swiller
2010-05-05 01:16 PM

Wow, unbelievable…two times in one day I totally agree with your posts David…is that really you posting? smile

I do not believe flippers help the market, they only hurt it…unless they are taking a haircut on every home…and they aren’t, they are making moeny because the inventory is being controlled by the banksters.

The law should be followed. If you can’t pay….6 months and out you go, and shortly after that, the home should be back on the market, but that isn’t happening. Instead the banksters leak a few homes, which are bought for CASH, and then held cranked up a few thousand (sometimes 100+) so the “investor” makes money simply by buying and flipping. Speculative buying causes huge problems, and to this day, still are.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 02:00 PM

Well and let’s not forget about the unfair rules that the banks live by.  They can just bid endlessly at the courthouse steps and clawback all these properties using money that they don’t have.  We all know that these institutions are insolvent - they have no business setting the minimum bids.

What should be happening is that some family picks up the house at auction for a cheap price and the bank gets to take a bath and go out of business.

It makes no sense to allow these insolvent entities stockpile houses that are being bought with other people’s money, take bailouts, withhold inventory, and ignore squatters in the high end houses.

The flippers are just acting as middlemen - using their ill-gotten gains from the bubble to rip off their neighbors some more during the downturn.  They are no more noble than ticket scalpers.  I don’t care what you call it wholesale, retail, whatever.

Astute Observation by FormerIrvinite
2010-05-05 06:17 PM

I am really glad you brought this point up David.  I was thinking the exact same thing, except you have made the point much more eloquently than I could have.

I don’t think the housing bubble will be over until this behavior of investors, errr . . . speculators, trying to flip homes ends.  And it can’t end soon enough.

Astute Observation by freedomCM
2010-05-05 10:14 AM

here is your example of a flip gone bad:
http://www.ocreader.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=89&t=430&p=7253#p7253

Sorry, Costa Mesa, not Irvine, though

Astute Observation by Geotpf
2010-05-05 11:29 AM

I don’t think this was a flip, but Jim the Realtor (and a local TV station) over at bubbleinfo.com have been following a complete clusterfuck of a trustee sale purchase.

Basically what happened was a builder wanted to build at a slightly higher density than is normally allowed.  To do this, they had to build a affordable housing unit.  The city withheld the certificate of occupancy on the final home in the tract (used as the model home) until the affordable unit was built and occupied.

Well, of course the builder went bankrupt and the affordable housing unit was never built.  But the model home was purchased by a third party (who leased it back to the builder to be used as the model).  Once the builder went bankrupt, they were unable to occupy the house because the affordable unit wasn’t built.  So they stopped paying on the loan and eventually went to the trustee sale-where some idiot actually purchased it.  He can’t occupy it either because the affordable unit (on land still owned by the bankrupt builder) still hasn’t been built.

Buyer beware at these things.  You have to do proper due dilengence or you will get your ass snakebit.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 01:10 PM

There is very little that can go wrong when you are buying properties at a 20% targeted discount with 100% cash (no leverage).  A worst case scenario is you screwed up the valuation and maybe you lose 2-5%.  Big deal, since it’s 100% cash, you learn your lesson and make it up in the next all cash flip.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2010-05-05 10:02 PM

Now I am agreeing with Planet Reality. What a strange comment thread….

Astute Observation by Muzie
2010-05-06 04:14 PM

So why are y’all wastin time on this blog? There’s money in them hills! Looks like plenty of money still sloshing around to try and screw the next guy over. Let’s not waste a minute!

Astute Observation by Major Schadenfreude
2010-05-05 01:14 PM

“We’ll put the really crappy trustee flips in traunch 3.”

I will start a rating agency and if you pay me enough, I will rate even the crappy stuff AAA.  Then you can sell it to pension fund managers.

I recommend targeting pensions backstopped by government agencies.  Their managers are easy to bribe, since if the AAA crap fails, the public pays for it and the manager still collects his exorbitant paycheck!

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 01:39 PM

Since the trustee flips are all cash it is impossible to get a worthless traunch 3.  Debt is what creates trash, you guys are missing the point here.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 02:06 PM

So if I put 100K into the lotto pool for someone to take and use to buy a trustee flip and that flip ends up losing money - what you are saying is that it is impossible for me to lose money because no debt was involved.  Makes perfect sense.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 02:27 PM

No, what I’m saying is that you may lose 5%, but it’s impossible to lose all your money which is what you are suggesting in your ridiculous traunch 3 comment.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 04:23 PM

You are right.  You will probably not go to Zero.  That should make our investors feel better.  Tell them they only lost 10% of their money - beats losing 100%. PlanetReality is in charge of customer service.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 05:58 PM

You may also gain 10-20%.  It’s much easier to make money when you have lots of money.  Welcome to the world of non leveraged investments.  Your alternative is a 0.5% money market that loses you money over the next 5 years. 

If someone with cash can turn over 5 properties a year you are looking at a 30 - 100% return.  The risk are low but of course you need to have a lot of money to begin with to do this.

Astute Observation by lowrydr310
2010-05-06 05:24 AM

No need for a 0.5% money market account. I got an email from American Express encouraging me to take advantage of their HIGH YIELD SAVINGS ACCOUNT that pays 1.28%! Amazing what they can call ‘high yield’ these days.

A local bank was advertising municipal and corporate bonds paying anywhere from 3 to 15%. I’m curious to find out what is paying 15% right now.

Astute Observation by Muzie
2010-05-06 04:17 PM

See, PlanetReality, you’re playing the game wrong.

You’re not supposed to go all cash and minimize risk on your own money.

You’re supposed to go all in with some OPM of some kind.

100% loss of OPM is better than 5% loss of your cash is it not?

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 02:18 PM

Ok so Major has the ratings covered.  Now we just need a hedge fund to place our secret bets against the traunch 3 trustee flips ( for insurance and risk mitigation purposes only of course WINK WINK ).  We will even let them select the flips themselves that they think are most likely to fail.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2010-05-05 08:15 AM

The low interest rates are working, folks!  Quantitative easing and stimulus have saved us.  It’s Time For a Celebration.

South L.A Again a House Flipping Hot Spot

House Flipping in South L.A That’s so Right

YEEEEEEE-HAAAAAWWW!

Astute Observation by Swiller
2010-05-05 08:27 AM

My o my, look at what the Dr. wrote today (Dr. Housing Blog…the link from that site got me here)

“The fact that we have tens of thousands of people able to pay their mortgage but not doing so tells us that many people are simply following the path Goldman Sachs has laid out.  Game the system.  Screw the majority.  This is how the game is currently being played.  Yet this isn’t sustainable.  Just look at how the market is reacting with the Greece bailout (you do realize we are partially bailing them out as well?).  The current system is rewarding the wrong people and the majority in the public gets this and that is why you see data like the above in surveys.  Strategic defaults are merely an extension of this.  What people are saying is screw this mortgage and walking away (not before they yank out as many months of free rent before the bank moves on the property).  Banks have been doing this kind of crony robbery of the public for decades.

Do I blame people for walking away?  Not at all.  Without any actual changes to the current financial system why should banks take the corrupt route and expect people to honor their responsibilities?  It is the height of hypocrisy but that is now synonymous with Wall Street.”

Two wrongs don’t make a right, but when you are battling to save your A$$, you have to do what is right long term….the WISE people know this.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
Astute Observation by Geotpf
2010-05-05 11:32 AM

If the austerity measures fail in Greece and then the government defaults, the entire Eurozone could collapse.  This could be a trigger to the start of a double dip world wide recession if a solution isn’t found double quick like.

Astute Observation by MalibuRenter
2010-05-05 05:34 PM

Had you considered that it might be the start of coups, civil wars, and the redrawing of boundaries?

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 06:03 PM

Nah, they’ll print a sh!t load of paper money instead.

Astute Observation by Greece
2010-05-05 08:59 PM

While the Euro Central Bank could print money the way our Federal Reserve Bank did, the fact that the European Union is not a one nation makes printing money harder for the benefit of one little country such as Greece. While there was a strict requirement on deficit spending that countries had to agree to in order to join the Euro currency regime, the Union appears to have lacked the means to enforce such requirement. Germany is reluctant to bail out Greece at the expense of Germans…etc. Heck West Germans were reluctant to even help the former East Germans.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-05-05 09:32 PM

I agree, this is yet another reason why the US is in such good shape despite what any inward looking chump wants to b!tch about.

It’s all relative, the US is the safe haven of the world and has near unlimited ability to keep the game going.

Astute Observation by Swiller
2010-05-05 12:59 PM

Thanks for the link David.

Yes, it is very sad about the state of affairs in Greece. What we see is the WORLD being close to collapse because of greed. The banksters are bilking EVERYONE of their labors. The U.S. just happens to be leading the charge.

If things don’t change, there will be riots in America, the big difference is…in America, there are more guns than people, and I wouldn’t want to be out there when the bullets start flying, and if the banksters aren’t controlled and soon, it’s EXACTLY what is going to happen…americans killing americans. This time it won’t be to free the black slaves, it will be to free the WORKING slaves…the same ones who are getting sick of providing for those whom do not, or will not WORK to support themselves (this includes the rich, just having money/watching investments does not = work.

Beware the two class system that is following the two party political failure.

Astute Observation by Sad Buyer
2010-05-05 08:39 AM

Take a look at these articles:

http://makingsenseofmyworld.blogspot.com/2008/02/six-degrees-of-leverage.html?source=patrick.net

http://makingsenseofmyworld.blogspot.com/2007/05/low-interest-rates-as-destructive-as.html?source=patrick.net

What do you think?

Astute Observation by newbie2008
2010-05-05 08:53 AM

IrvineRenter,
You mentioned that the banks moved quickly to DTS after the NOD.  How long was the free rent before the NOD?  The average of 417 days or was the bank’s calculation that the condo value will never be the old loan value.  In other words, no chance of payback on the old loan.

Stock market taking a dive after the good news of the Greece bailout sent new money into the stock market.  Let the culling begin. 

When do you think the commerical RE will collapse and how likely is the commerical RE collapse to bring down the housing market via restricted money supply/liquity?

Astute Observation by Mike C
2010-05-05 10:49 AM

I wonder if some entrepreneurs will start up a business that will securitize foreclosures the way that LendingClub and Prosper did for consumer debt.

Astute Observation by tonye
2010-05-05 01:20 PM

Krunch Investments Inc.

A Real Estate Investment Trust Fund.

Closed end with 50 shares at $25K each.  Operating fund at 1MIL.

Makes lots of sense to me.  You know my email address.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
Astute Observation by newbie2008
2010-05-05 09:07 PM

The just round of GSE repackaging bad loan and issuing implied guaranties on the CMO.  The chickens have come home to roost (non-paying loans FC’ed and investors demanding to get paid).  The govt must help their backers, GS and other banksters. 

Get use to it.  Both parties are in the banksters’ hip pockets.  Just a dog and pony show on Capitol Hill to show how tough the Demorats and Republicrats are before they draft tough regulations with riders to indemnify the banks.  Let the next round of fleecing begin.

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2010-05-05 09:19 PM

That’s part of the continued unlimited line of credit that our idiot leaders pledged on Christmas Eve to keep this housing ponzi scheme afloat.  Where is the outrage? 

What happened in Greece today just might happen here if this bullshit continues.  Our leaders in this country are absolute pieces of excrement for letting the common citizens get gang raped by Wall St., banks and the special interests.

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