Equity Inferno

May 13th, 2008   by IrvineRenter  in Uncategorized
145 Astute Observations

 

Disco Inferno -- The Trammps

The twin towers known as the Marquee at Park Place is a lasting symbol of everything wrong with the housing bubble (Two mass fires, yes! One hundred stories high.) These urban units were 30 years ahead of their time, and perhaps in 30 years, the buyers in these towers will be able to sell their units for what they paid for them. The obscenity of the prices there will be laid bare in today's post. I will run through the cost of ownership numbers as compared to the cost of a rental and demonstrate what these units are really worth to an owner occupant.

I must confess, I have been holding off profiling these towers. There is limited information available on these units in the data services I use, so my picture is somewhat incomplete; however, the main reason I have waited to post on these units is because in the very first post done on this unit back in early 2007, I lost it in the comments section. It is pretty rare that I lose my cool, but I did there. The exchange went as follows:

Comment from a resident:

2007-01-03 04:56 PM

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and sometimes its good to keep it to yourself.  It is very simple, for those of you that don’t like Luxury living in a place like Marquee, hey, no one is forcing you to buy here. stay where you are and be happy, what is with all the bitterness. Your bitterness is in result of ENVY.  Chill out. Those who buy or bought at the Marquee made a choice and obviously like their investment.

Comment by me:

2007-01-03 09:10 PM

(Resident)

“Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and sometimes its good to keep it to yourself.”

You should have followed your own advice.

“what is with all the bitterness. Your bitterness is in result of ENVY.”

You people don’t seem to get what we are saying, so I will try to spell it out for you:

Kool Aid Man

WE

DON’T

ENVY

YOU:

WE

PITY

YOU.

You have made the worst possible purchase in all of Orange County. When the flippers can’t make the payments and are forced to sell, the value of your units is going to plummet: more so than others because your fees are so high. Every time we on this board drive by, we look up with amazement at the monumental folly of buyer greed. Your dark tower is going to stand as the symbol for the height of hubris of the housing bubble.

We don’t envy you, we are very thankful we are not you.

P.S. Please ignore my previous post where I tried to make nice, reinforce your delusions, and leave you with a shred of dignity.

.

The comments section on that original post was invaded by residents and Marquee staff members. I hope we get so lucky this time around wink

3141 Michelson Kitchen

Asking Price: $1,080,000IrvineRenter

Income Requirement: $270,000

Downpayment Needed: $216,000

Monthly Equity Burn: $9,000 at least

Purchase Price: $1,035,000

Purchase Date: 3/16/2006

Address: 3141 Michelson #808, Irvine, CA 92612WTF

 

Beds: 2
Baths: 2
Sq. Ft.: 1,520
$/Sq. Ft.: $711
Lot Size: -
Property Type: Condominium
Style: Other
Year Built: 2006
Stories: 1 Level
View: Panoramic
Area: Airport Area
County: Orange
MLS#: P597004
Source: SoCalMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 258 days
Unsold in 90+ days

Enjoy the most uniquely designed condo in Orange County. This highly upgraded home has custom painted walls, recessed lighting, and hardwood floors. You will enjoy a panoramic view of city lights from Irvine to Newport Beach. Spoil yourself in the lap of luxury at the Marquee Towers. This stylishly designed modern high rise was built in 2006 offering such amenities as 24 hour gated security, pool, health center, garaged parking, business center, pool table, and concierge service.

BTW, the listing realtor is the owner. Do you feel the schadenfreude?

Notice he isn't talking up the wonderful Santa Ana School District. This isn't a place for families.

I wonder if he has a view of that beautiful new office building?

.

.

What is this guy's plan? Since he is the listing broker, he will only pay a 3% commission, so he has left himself a bit of negotiating room to get out at breakeven. After 258 days on the market, I don't think his plan is going to work, particularly when the seller across the hall (3141 Michelson #804, Irvine, CA 92612) is selling a larger unit for $351,000 less.

What are these units really worth? Let's revisit the calculations from the post Rent vs. Own:

 $321,893     Purchase Price
    
 $64,379       Downpayment @20%
 $257,515     Mortgage @ 80%
    
 $1,627.67     Mortgage Payment @ 6.5%
 $268.24       Property Taxes @ 1%
 $67.06         Homeowners Insurance @ 0.25%
 $67.06         Special Taxes and Levies @ 0.25%
 $1,100.00     Homeowners Associate Dues or Fees @ $1100
 $67.06         Maintenance and Replacement Reserves @.25%
 $3,197.10     Monthly Cash Cost
    
 $1,394.87     Interest on First Payment
 $(365.48)    Tax Savings @ 25% of mortgage interest and property taxes
 $(232.80)    Equity hidden in payment
 $201.18       Lost Downpayment Income @ 5% of Downpayment

 $2,800        Total Cost of Ownership

We have to make some adjustments to the original calculation due to the unique circumstances of these properties:

  1. The assumed breakeven rent is $2,800. Some units have gone as low as $2,300. $2,800 is a likely median rent.
  2. The HOA dues are an outrageous $1,100 a month
  3. The property taxes are actually a bit lower as I believe there are no Mello Roos taxes here.
  4. The maintenance and replacement reserves are only for minor interior items so they are much less than a SFD home.

As you can see, the HOA dues are a value killer. The breakeven value for an owner-occupant is only $321,893 which is nearly 70% off the asking price for this unit. The monthly cashflow drain the owners of these units are experiencing is remarkable, particularly for the plethora of empty boxes.

Maybe this property should be renamed the Marquee at North Korea? 

North Korea at NightMarquee at Park Place at Night

North Korea at night and Marquee at Park Place at night.

.

Disco InfernoBurn baby burn! Burn baby burn! Burn baby burn! Burn baby burn!
Burnin'!

Two mass fires, yes! One hundred stories high
People gettin' loose y’all gettin' down on the roof - Do you hear?
(the folks are flaming) Folks were screamin' - out of control
It was so entertainin' - when the boogie started to explode
I heard somebody say

Burn baby burn! - Disco inferno!
Burn baby burn! - Burn that mama down
Burn baby burn! - Disco inferno!
Burn baby burn! - Burn that mama down
Burnin'!

Satisfaction (uhu hu hu) came in the chain reaction
(burnin') I couldn't get enough, (till I had to self-destroy) so I had to
self destruct, (uhu hu hu)
The heat was on (burnin’), rising to the top, huh!
Everybody's goin' strong (uhu hu hu)
And that is when my spark got hot
I heard somebody say

Burn baby burn! - Disco inferno!
Burn baby burn! - Burn that mama down, yoh!
Burn baby burn! - Disco inferno!
Burn baby burn! - Burn that mama down
Burnin'!


Disco Inferno -- The Trammp

.

P.S. I almost went with a different theme today. Owning in the Marquee Towers is also similar to riding on Disney's Tower of Terror, complete with the huge, sudden drop...

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by Jill
2008-05-13 05:40 AM

This is nothing short of breathtaking. $2,800 for break even (which is of course fictional for these unit owners)? I wonder what they get for $1,100 in HOA dues - somebody had better be cooking my dinner and walking my dog for those fees.
You’ve outdone yourself today Irvine Renter!

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-05-13 06:06 AM

wisechoice.jpg

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-05-13 06:15 AM

pityyou.jpg

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-05-13 06:26 AM

I can’t stop laughing at this picture…

LOL

Astute Observation by Back to the Future Part III
2008-05-13 08:19 PM

Irvine Renter-we are too (thank you rental living.com).

If you want to get published, you have to go to the next step-which bank gave the developer financing to build this wonderful project, and how many of the original presales (if any) have closed, and what is the status of the construction loan.

Hint: most likely based in New York, or had a name that began with an F.  No local FDIC insured bank out here would touch it.

When the construction lender forecloses and dumps the inventory to a vulture fund, then we will see the bottom.  It will be UGLY.

Astute Observation by REassetmanager
2008-05-13 09:59 PM

I’m pretty sure the construction loans were paid off.  There were enough closings in the first few months that it paid off the loan.  Now its just a drain on preferred return and return of capital.

Astute Observation by cara
2008-05-13 06:36 AM

That’s awesome!!!!

Mr. T moved to my town when I was in elementary school (his daughter was a year behind my sister in high school). He cut down all the trees in his front yard and put up an ugly 8-foot wooden fence and everyone got mad at him because it was a “Tree City USA”. He came by all the schools with autographed photos so we forgave him (well the kids did).

Astute Observation by IrvineRealtor
2008-05-13 08:26 AM

The “other” Lake Forest… nice.

Astute Observation by cara
2008-05-13 08:36 AM

Yup.

In my defense I would like to point out that we lived in the one and only attached townhouse development (all of 16 units) in the town, on a major 4 lane highway across from the second set of tracks. The other options in our price point were totally run down fixer uppers and there was no long term rental property (other than our own neighbors). Granted it didn’t appreciate at more than 2.5% per year either, but we went to some of the very best public schools in the country (less so now). I mean for $120k crappy townhouse, I took calculus from my own high school sophomore year.

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2008-05-13 02:11 PM

Cara, have you seen what has happened to highrise condos in downtown Chicago, lately?

Sales in new condos downtown has dropped 83% since last year. Yes, eighty-three percent, that was not a typo.

But Lake Forest seems to be holding up really well.

Astute Observation by dcn
2008-05-13 06:10 PM

I lived in “The Ponds” for 5 years during grade school (88-93’) off of Westleigh Rd- my dad called it the low rent district of Lake Forest, IL. (ha,ha) I remember seeing Lisa T driving around town in her BMW convertible...my brother graduated from LFHS and I was enrolled to go there, but then my dad got transferred back to sunny CA grin

Astute Observation by Cara
2008-05-13 05:43 AM

But they’re so pretty!! Can you really put a price on pretty???

Okay, so, um, yes, yes you can.

But renting is not the same as owning. It’s not yours then, its just not the same…

These are the “I have money to burn” condos. It’s an important statement to be able to make. Too bad you’ll never be able to sell it given that not a single one has sold (just going by the comparable listings at the bottom of Redfin). Too bad a bunch of them are chasing each other to the bottom around $750k now.

For some people renting is just not an option. It’s just not socially acceptable, no matter how pretty of a place you manage to rent.

Astute Observation by jhill
2008-05-13 05:38 PM

There is a 2BR 2BA at this address, somewhat more than 1200 sq. ft., on Redfin at 579K!!! Is 300 sq ft worth 200 thousand dollars to anyone?

Astute Observation by oc bear
2008-05-13 10:13 PM

Unless you paid cash you are renting from the bank.

Astute Observation by awgee
2008-05-13 06:16 AM

For awhile I was getting bored with all the, “this one will sell for $_____.__”, or “this one will bottom at __%”, or “this one will go back to _____ year prices.” But I think we all ought to make a bottom call at what we think will be the lowest price a Marquee apartment will sell for.  What is your guess?

Astute Observation by Cara
2008-05-13 06:24 AM

I think that the people who want to rent there will rent there, but that the people who want to own there will disregard the exhorbinant HOA fee as the cost of owning such a beautiful place, and thus that it will bottom out at $500k for the low-water mark.
If you want to be a landlord, this is not where you’d be looking to buy.

Astute Observation by r€nato
2008-05-13 06:36 AM

is one permitted to rent out these units? I would think the HOA would have some pretty severe restrictions in that regard, but I really don’t know what the norm is for such luxury high-rise condos.

I agree; owning one of these places is more of a statement of one’s wealth (or pretention to wealth) rather than a practical purchase decision.

I suspect that these prices will be very sticky; barring distress, sellers will be very hesitant to lower the price to something reasonable, probably figuring some rich sucker is bound to come along sooner or later and pay what they think it is worth.

Astute Observation by r€nato
2008-05-13 07:03 AM

...afterthought: people don’t buy a Ferrari because it’s a sound purchase decision; it’s a fun car to drive, there’s nothing like it, it turns heads and it says something about you.

Same thing with these condos. I have to say that I sort of see the point of Marquee residents defending their purchase decision. However at these prices, it’s like paying $500K for a Ferrari which really ought to go for $300K. I guess if you have more money than you know what to do with, you don’t mind foolishly pissing it away. I suppose that in itself says something about such a person…

Personally, I would hope that no matter how rich I get (should I be so lucky), I would have enough self-esteem that I wouldn’t feel the need for the shallow ego gratification which comes from carelessly flaunting wealth through egregiously wasteful conspicuous consumption…

Astute Observation by NoWow!way
2008-05-13 07:23 AM

I remember reading an article about a wealthy person buying a notebook computer for over a million dollars - just to say that they had the most expensive laptop.

Ego can be a big driving factor for some people.

BTW:  I have been trying to nest comments to other posters, like george, earlier and I am not able to do it.  Will see if this one posts, nested.  If not, if someone can tell me what I am doing wrong, I’d appreciate it!

Astute Observation by George8
2008-05-13 08:05 AM

The towers were started near the peak of the bubble. If many buyers have bought to speculate with bubbly equity and easy money/loans, the whole towers could soon turn into a financial disaster like what happened to many towers in Manhattan and NJ Gold Coast in the 1980s’ bubble, and Miami condo towers of today.

Astute Observation by Mercutio.Mont
2008-05-13 12:11 PM

First of all, Ferraris tend to hold their values very well.  Production is limited, the waiting list is legendary, and used Ferraris frequently sell at or near full MSRP.  Take a look at eBay for proof.

Secondly, market prices are not determined by the few whom do not care how much they pay.  Market prices are determined by the marginal buyers and the marginal properties. 

And finally, richer people tend to be cheaper people.  They know everyone is trying to take advantage of them by chipping away at their wealth, so they tend to be very aggressive in negotiation good deals for everything they buy.  Look at Harry’s Bar (Venice) discounting meals 25% for Americans.

Astute Observation by Soapboxpolitico
2008-05-13 01:42 PM

Excellent point. One does not buy a Ferrari because it’s a terrific value as a means of transportation; one buys a Ferrari because it’s a symbol of a station in life reached.  That said, some Ferrari’s are decent investments if for no other reason that they are deliberately kept to low production or limited production. Rarity as always is the key.

That said, there is clearly nothing rare about these places. They may be something of a novelty here in OC but they’re not rare. There may be a few obscenely monied folks (fools) who’d pay asking price for the penthouse or very top floors of these towers but not nearly enough to save the entire joint. Some trust-fund babies are fools but the few truly wealthy people I know are very savvy and not stupid enough to chuck their money done the black hole.

To those who bought one of these places you might as well have made a pile of cash in the BBQ and set it aflame.  Good luck on the ride down ... Oh, and remember that the feet you trammelled in your rush to the top may well be connected to the butts you’ll have to kiss on the way down.

Astute Observation by Hormiguero
2008-05-13 03:45 PM

“First of all, Ferraris tend to hold their values very well.”

???

Sorry, but it is hard to think of an asset which depreciates faster than a ferrari.  Every mile driven is at least a dollar in depreciation.  Try cracking one of those inches-from-the-ground bumper skirts in a parking lot and seeing what the repair bill is…

Maybe this is a bit off-topic, but maybe it isn’t - the truly rich probably laugh at the strivers who would be caught dead in a tower down the street from “John Wayne Airport"… much like no one thinks it is cool to roll up in the Gallardo of five years ago, and no one wants all of the mechanical issues that come with one with a big 20,000 miles on it.

Astute Observation by Mercutio.Mont
2008-05-13 07:08 PM

If every mile driven were only $1 in depreciation, then Ferraris would be incredibly slowly depreciating.  Fact is, these vehicles sell for close to MSRP for one to two years after production - of course they all have low miles, but no one’s using these as daily drivers.  Point being, Ferraris have excellent resale values.

Now Mercedes on the other hand have been known to depreciate 40% in one year.  That’s a bit more like these condos.

Astute Observation by LC
2008-05-13 11:17 PM

They make jewel encrusted cell phones for the same reason. When you got it, you flaunt it.

Astute Observation by OhhNinjaPuhlease
2008-05-13 10:24 AM

$500k may be a good call, but with such a flop a developer will come in and force conversion to offices and charge more like $3,400 per month in rent to business.

Doctors, lawyers, brokers, executive consultants, software developers, insurance sales, agencies.

Astute Observation by DeadBeatRenter
2008-05-13 10:30 AM

Pretty hard to do with R+ zoning!

Astute Observation by uptown
2008-05-13 05:15 PM

Offices - that’s what these look like.  Bet you’re right, being so close to the airport the zoning was probably C in the first place.

Astute Observation by lendingmaestro
2008-05-13 10:03 AM

$350 a sq ft

Astute Observation by NoWow!way
2008-05-13 06:22 AM

This type of housing would be fun to rent.  You’d be getting a very unique experience for the money, imo.  And at a deep discount compared to the “owners” of similar units.  You’d be able to relax and enjoy all the amenities - not stressing over where you’re going to get the $$ for a big mortgage and the huge HOA fees each month-leave that to the owner/debtor.  You’d be able to truly enjoy everything the HOA has to offer there!

However, it is NOT for a family with school aged children.  It’s an unpleasant realization for some buyers that their children are assigned to Santa Ana Schools. The worst performing schools in the county.  The most inefficient and irresponsible school district leadership in place today (as Capo has already started the housecleaning process of ousting corrupt administrators, but SAUSD is slow to reform).  The school district is attempting to raise property taxes again this June and again in November, so buyer also beware.

I was wondering why Bren recently gave $10 million dollars for “tutoring” in the SAUSD.  Now it kind of makes sense.  The guy fought hard against his own children for child support, yet all of sudden this year he’s being charitable.

Follow the money.

Astute Observation by Emma Anne
2008-05-13 06:28 PM

I was thinking the same thing.  For a young professional couple with no kids, it would be a blast to live there.  But definitely as a rental, because it would just be for a few years until you got on with real life.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-05-13 06:25 AM

Are the towers sold out? If not, what is the sales status if available? So far, is there any unit in any stage of foreclosure?

Astute Observation by houseonlegs
2008-05-13 11:20 AM

Like IR stated, the data on these units is not very accessable, from what I have found, a lot of the units are owned by Irvine Residential? I don’t know if that is an investor that purchased many of the units, or if that is the assumed builder name. There has been at least one foreclosure in these towers. But the public data in these towers lag quite a long time, so there could be more? From the public data that is accessable, these units were purchased when a cartoon character could qualify for a million dollar loan, so there are a lot of no/low money down and a lot of option arms. These units will fall hard.

Astute Observation by graphrix
2008-05-15 12:25 AM

Irvine Residential was the DBA for Bosa, the builder of the project. The county is really slow with new home projects getting recorded. They get dumped in chunks at the county, and until they “have” to record a new deed, as in trustee’s deed, will the title get updated. This project was sold out long ago, and it is most likely the county being uber slow. Oh, and there are more foreclosures coming soon to this project, so more updates on the title will have to come soon too.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2008-05-13 01:44 PM

I drive by them regularly, and at night it seems like just 20% of the lights are on.

Astute Observation by LC
2008-05-13 11:23 PM

There is nothing around there. You cannot walk to anything. Those buildings are in an industrial area—next to the freeway. Nice idea, poor execution. Crazy prices.

But that new office building next door is the coolest building in SoCal. A post-modern version of steel and glass.

Astute Observation by NoWow!way
2008-05-13 06:30 AM

Those are great questions, George.  I bet that information is closely guarded and hard to obtain.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-05-13 07:38 AM

Many high rise condo towers in Miami are in various stages of foreclosure. The risk of going bk on these Irvine towers is rising if the builders have sold less than 50%.

Astute Observation by VanMorrisonFan
2008-05-13 06:37 AM

Manhattan Living - minus the Manhattan wages and amenities!

What I hate about “urban living” in the OC is that the OC is not set up for urban living.  With true urban living you can WALK out your front door and all of the amenities of daily life are within a short WALK of your front door. New York, Chicago, Seattle (parts of it), etc. have true “urban living.” OC continues to build everything around the car, which makes true urban living impossible.

Astute Observation by Priced_Out_IT_Guy
2008-05-13 10:56 AM

Rubbish! You can always take the OCTA bus. Of course, then you have to sit in dirty sticky vinyl seats next to smelly hobos, breath unfiltered diesel, and spend fifteen times longer being chauffeured by a disgruntled foreigner driving the bus to get anywhere than by car…

Astute Observation by Formerbanker
2008-05-13 02:21 PM

I agree entirely with you!  I never understood who thought these condos would be desirable and would deserve a premium price...for a great view of the freeway ?  Or a few office buildings ?  Ask any of us who’ve lived in a real city, not an offramp in suburbia, this ain’t no Manhattan in your backyard.  Crazy!

Astute Observation by LC
2008-05-14 12:43 AM

I am always amazed at the pay parking lots at the Irvine Spectrum office towers. Nothing but nothing as far as the eye can see, yet they still charge like you are downtown!

Astute Observation by caloshua
2008-05-13 06:40 AM

Hi, Could you explain your break-even calulation using the purchase price of this condo. Someone stated 2800 break even, 2800 sounds like you’d be about 6000 in the hole every month. Thanks

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-05-13 07:05 AM

You would be $6,000 in the hole every month if you paid $1,080,000. If you paid $321,893, then you would break even per the calculations in the post.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-05-13 07:27 AM

300K sounds about right.  Condos are the worst kind of real-estate an “investor” can get involved with.

These units were built to be flipped; not lived in.

Astute Observation by lendingmaestro
2008-05-13 10:07 AM

At the right price, Condos are the best investment.  They are the easiest to rent out.  Easiest to find tenants.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-05-13 12:02 PM

OK, at the right price.

Astute Observation by shiny
2008-05-13 10:21 AM

I guess the Marquee condo-debtors are resigned to their woeful fate.  Whereas a year ago this blog was spammed with angry posts from various “owners” there, they are silent this go-round.  What a location:  adjacent to bubble-Central Park West and right next to the giant new Maguire office building that was supposed to house New Century.  Such idle dreams!  The Maguire building is an aviation hazard, you look right through it because it is virtually empty:  a ghost of a building right next to flight paths.  They should at least put newspaper on the windows so some hapless pilot doesn’t plow into the joint. 

I wonder how much vacant square feet there is when you combine Marquee, the Maguire building, and bubble-Central Park West all together.  It boggles the mind, so much debt will go bad.  Only fools march into this real estate market. And to think that Lennar mothballed Central Park West to wait for the market to return: Hey Lennar:  the year 2005 called to say so long, farewell, auf Wiedersehen, good night! 

But the future will be good for BK lawyers, that much is certain.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2008-05-13 01:48 PM

Lennar’s decision on CPW is puzzling. Maybe if no units are sold, there’s more flexibility to sell the whole in some fashion?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-05-13 02:30 PM

I suspect their decision was made for them by virtue of running out of money. I don’t think they are in a position to complete the project.

Astute Observation by REassetmanager
2008-05-13 09:57 PM

CPW isn’t all Lennar.  The towers are being developed by Interstate Equities and Barclays Capital.  Lennar just has the low-rise sticks and bricks.  Their rational is that they weren’t able to sell at the the minimum release price on the loan, so there was no way they could continue to market at their asking prices without breaking that price floor.  They must have big enough interest reserves on the construction loan that they can hold out.  It’ll only last so long before the reserves run out and the banks will force them to come out of pocket with additional equity to cover interest or it’ll go back to the bank. 

My colleagues say the same thing is going to happen to Skyline at MacArthur Place.  That deal is pretty much going to go back to iStar and they’ll sell it off to an opportunity fund that has a low enough basis that they can sell it as condos because that thing isn’t going to work as apartments.

Astute Observation by REassetmanager
2008-05-13 10:04 PM

Sorry it’s Intergulf as developer and ING Real Estate as the lender on the CPW tower

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2008-05-14 01:44 PM

Thank you for the information. Do you know if the other partners have considered finishing off the project before the interest eats them alive?

Astute Observation by REassetmanager
2008-05-14 08:42 PM

Not too sure about the low rise buildings at CPW.  I haven’t worked in Irvine in about 3 months.  Have they stopped all construction on them?  One of my friends manages the senior loan on the property and I haven’t asked him what their MO is on the remainder of the deal.  I’d be surprised if the city didn’t force Lennar to finish construction given that they should be bonded.  As for the Skyline deal, that one is finishing up construction, I think in August or September.  The local OC market is not close to bottoming out.

Astute Observation by cara
2008-05-13 07:56 AM

Cutting and pasting from a spread sheet may not be the way to go, but from the redfin search page the applicable data tells me that $630k has already happened. Granted that was a low-storey, but given that less the $450k can’t be too far in the future. Look for the ones with a date and price for past sales.

ADDRESS PRICE BEDS BATHS SQFT DAYS LAST SALE DATE LAST SALE PRICE LISTING ID BROKERAGE
3141 Michelson Dr #406 750000 2 2 1583 21 2/15/2006 777500 S529765 Coldwell Banker
3141 Michelson #1804 1683000 2 2 2062 26 S529069 Coldwell Banker
3141 Michelson Dr #808 1080000 2 2 1520 259 P597004 Universal Estates
3141 Michelson #1506 699000 2 2 1347 236 S505915 Condos etc
3141 Michelson #1706 1599990 3 2 1980 87 S521915 Pacific One Residential
3141 MICHELSON #1501 799000 2 2 1293 64 S524667 High Rise Home Sales
3141 Michelson Dr #601 579000 2 2 1292 63 U8001198 COLDWELL BANKER PREVIEWS INTERNATIONAL
3141 Michelson Dr #1605 1300000 2 3 2063 115 U8000318 COLDWELL BANKER PREVIEWS INTERNATIONAL
3141 Michelson Dr #1304 1560000 2 2.5 2063 97 S520752 Re/Max Real Estate Services
3141 Michelson Dr #807 1000000 2 2 1367 155 S514938 Coldwell Banker
3141 Michelson Dr #804 729000 2 2 1583 146 S515695 First Capital Realty
3141 Michelson Dr #704-D 769000 2 2 1585 137 S516203 First Capital Realty
3141 michelson Dr #1305 1380000 2 2.5 2063 126 P616489 Universal Estates
3141 Michelson Dr #1505 1799000 3 3 2068 10 S531142 Kingsamerica Mtg & Rlty
3141 MICHELSON DR #E805 0 0 10/2/2007 650000
3141 MICHELSON DR UNIT 1203 0 0 1/31/2007 800000
3141 MICHELSON DR UNIT 405 0 0 4/12/2007 630000
3131 Michelson #404 759000 2 2 1492 144 C07178800 REALTY WORLD - DIAMOND REALTY
3131 Michelson Dr #607 W 799990 3 2 1500 743 U6601071 GRACE PAK
3131 Michelson #1603 1790000 2 2.5 2063 228 S507148 Surterre Properties, Inc. 
3131 Michelson Dr 1055000 2 2 1520 76 P624525 Golden State Funding & Realty
3131 Michelson Dr 1049000 2 2 1520 111 S518957 Tarbell, Realtors Irv
3131 Michelson #405 599000 2 2 1367 75 S523353 Condos etc
3131 Michelson Dr #1103 1145000 2 2 1583 72 2/20/2007 1025000 L25672 Surterre Properties Inc. 
3131 Michelson Dr #1304 1250000 2 3 2063 214 P604682 ReMax Orange County East
3131 Michelson Dr #1108 825000 2 2 1275 120 S517844 Tri-Star Realty
3131 Michelson #1206 1075000 3 2 1367 101 S520293 Coldwell Banker
3131 MICHELSON #1302 659000 2 2 1347 100 S520353 High Rise Home Sales
3131 Michelson #1802 1999000 2 2 1980 137 S516188 Condos etc
3131 Michelson #1303 1549000 2 2.5 2063 130 U8000022 SURTERRE PROPERTIES INC. 
3131 MICHELSON DR UNIT 1101 0 0 9/6/2006 1025000
3131 MICHELSON DR UNIT 807 0 0 6/29/2007 925000
3131 MICHELSON DR UNIT 901 0 0 7/11/2007 979000
3131 MICHELSON DR UNIT 1103 0 0 2/20/2007 1025000
3131 MICHELSON DR UNIT 1605 0 0 11/27/2007 925000
3131 MICHELSON DR UNIT 703 0 0 1/5/2007 1000000

Astute Observation by cara
2008-05-13 08:02 AM

That came out terrible, but notice there’s one listed at $599k for 75 days no sale, and a higher up unit at $659k no sale 100 days. Last summer’s prices are not enough incentive to buy into this airport condo.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-05-13 08:13 AM

It feels like a disaster looming....and pressure is mounting as clock is ticking.

Astute Observation by George8
2008-05-13 11:44 AM

Real estate is an illiquid asset, the tower of this status just does not attract any bid at any price....

Astute Observation by TheNumbersNeverLie
2008-05-13 08:29 AM

Great post IR.  The numbers never lie.  Wealthy people didn’t get rich being stupid.  These places are heading for the high 300’s. 

Anyone see the funny video with the “foreclosure bus” that showed up at the million dollar REO with the kids playing on the roof?  Great comedy.

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-05-13 08:35 AM

It was linked on HousingPanic yesterday.  Good stuff.

Astute Observation by Genius
2008-05-13 10:45 AM

Some of them got wealthy courtesy of a trust fund.

I have a friend like that.  Very rich.  Total moron.

Astute Observation by AcuteEnigma
2008-05-13 09:03 AM

I can’t imagine living in such an ugly tower.  Looks like a prison.

Where’s the yard for my dogs and rose garden?

Might make a good hotel, but I wouldn’t want to live there no matter how cheap.  Too ugly.

I hope this is not the direction Irvine is headed for.  Why do we need to pack more and more people in when the freeways are already unbearably packed?

Julie, Irvine resident since 1974

Astute Observation by tenmagnet
2008-05-13 09:37 AM

I think these units were built with younger buyers in mind.
Ranging from college students to young professionals.
Can’t really see a lot of older folks residing here.
On the flip side, a lot of younger, wealthy professionals would never consider nor lower themselves to purchase an older home period.
To each their own.

Astute Observation by nonesuch
2008-05-13 11:09 AM

They could rename it La Playa Towers.

Astute Observation by Rocker
2008-05-13 11:49 AM

Executive staff from companies with head quarters in Orange County could be a good market, you know, since is surrounded by office buidlings is a good hiding spot for the mistress, nobody notice what really is going on.

Astute Observation by Astute Observator
2008-07-18 06:41 PM

That is a true statement.

Astute Observation by Acuteenigma
2008-05-13 12:19 PM

Thousands of homes have been built in Irvine in the last 5 years and also thousands of very attractive condo units such as the ones at Main and Jamboree.

One need not restrict their choice to Ugly Tower or “older home.”

Astute Observation by Soapboxpolitico
2008-05-13 01:54 PM

TenMagnet—true, true.  But how many young buyers and college students have got $3500/month burning a hole in their Diesel jeans OR the $1100/mo. in HOA’s?

None that I know but I could be mistaken.  My point is you are spot-on, the developer undoubtedly had that in mind when marketing these places but like everything here in OC, greed took hold and sanity took a leap off the penthouse deck.  So now these towers stand as a monument to greed, insanity and bad marketing strategy.  As the post intended, a microcosm of OC itself these past few years.

Astute Observation by Laura Louzader
2008-05-13 09:17 AM

Dear Irvine Renter,

I went back to the post on this building that you linked, and read some reader’s comments.

I couldn’t help but laugh my head off at the post of one Marquee resident, who said that living in the building made her feel “like I live in the Bob Newhart show”.

REALLY!!! Well, it just so happens that the Bob Newhart show, which takes place here in Chicago, was also filmed here in Chicago, at a highrise in my own Edgewater neighborhood, the Malibu condo at 6007 N. Sheridan Road, where large, 2-bed apts sold at just over $300K at the peak.

Here’s a current listing, a large 2-bed for $225K:

http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=60660&mnp=23&mxp=24&typ=7&sid=c827f68df9634019b9488dbbb0ad8eab&lid=1088550996&lsn=1&srcnt=116#Detail

The Malibu complex has 2 towers, on the shore of Lake Micihagan,and always has been a fairly moderate priced complex. The apartment are large and attractive. It was built in the late 60s. Edgewater is a diverse north lakefront neighborhood with a great variety of all types of housing, from very expensive to very modest, and from old mansions and courtyards, to modern highrises.

Astute Observation by Rocker
2008-05-13 09:31 AM

...the Marquee at North Korea?

roflmfao.jpg

At night looks like a military facility, they shut off lights at 9pm, no exceptions!

Astute Observation by AZDavidPhx
2008-05-13 12:09 PM

Too funny.

Astute Observation by U.R. Jealous
2008-05-13 09:37 AM

I definitely would pay 4 million for this one because it is celebrity owned which makes it worth a lot more.  I would be the envy of my friends and coworkers.  Even my enemies would be jealous if I bought it.

8157 Scholarship #1204 IRVINE, CA 92612
Price: $3,900,000
Beds:  3
Baths:  3.5
Sq. Ft.:  4,290
$/Sq. Ft.:  $909

Luxury defined, this Celebrity owned two story penthouse features 3 bed/3.5 baths, 19’ high ceilings, Snaidero cabinetry, Kohler fixtures, Viking appliance, granite and marble slab counters and a private balcony. Enjoy resort style living with concierge services, Jr. Olympic size pool, spa, fitness center, 24 hour staffed lobbies, conference room and a residents Club Room for entertaining.

Astute Observation by tonye
2008-05-13 12:18 PM

Hmm, my private chateau at TR has infinite ceilings in the atrium, Kohler, Viking, marble, quartz counters, 5b/3ba.

We have a porch, a second story private balcony/deck.... 

My kids complain 24 hours a day, there’s a Club room in the atrium to smoke cigars.

AND.. direct access from an oversize garage where my wife’s Civic takes the place of our Maybach 61.

Maybe my chateau would be worth 1200 per square foot?  After all I got autographed posters of the CART drivers.. and Zanardi is a celebrity.

Time to sell.....

Astute Observation by former_irvine_resident
2008-05-13 04:11 PM

Infinite ceilings?  Does that mean it lacks a roof?

Astute Observation by tonye
2008-05-13 05:08 PM

It’s an atrium.... no roof.  Bingo.  ;-D

Astute Observation by SacBoomer
2008-05-13 08:56 PM

Wow, Celebrity provenance! judging by the furniture, or lack there of it could be Michael Jackson, or maybe Jose Conseco!

Astute Observation by Blueberry Pie
2008-05-13 09:42 AM

“highly upgraded”

One of my favorite parts of making fun of realtard listings is the use of the English language.

I believe that words have purposes, and when people try and twist their meanings to make their product seem more interesting, it annoys me.

I am also annoyed by the lack of effort in spell-checking, abbreviations and capitalization in so many realtard listings.

Astute Observation by Blueberry Pie
2008-05-13 09:43 AM

Oops.  I missed “most uniquely” in the previous sentence.  How can something be more than unique?

Astute Observation by Blueberry Pie
2008-05-13 09:46 AM

OK, this is the last one.  “Custom painted”

How can paint NOT be custom?  Is there a way you can go to Home Depot and buy some “off the shelf” paint that just sticks on your wall without the hassle of using a brush or roller?

Astute Observation by Priced_Out_IT_Guy
2008-05-13 10:53 AM

LOL sounds like you are probably a George Carlin fan.

“That’s another complaint of mine, too much use of this prefix pre.... It’s all over the language now. pre this, pre that..... place the turkey in a preheated oven.... it’s ridiculous… there are only two states an oven can possibly exist in, heated or unheated.... preheated is a meaningless term… that’s like pre-recorded, this program was pre-recorded, well of course it was pre-recorded, when else you gonna record it, afterwards? That’s the whole purpose of recording, to do it beforehand! Otherwise it doesn’t really work does it? Pre-existing, pre-planning, pre-screening...” -George Carlin

Astute Observation by skek
2008-05-13 09:52 AM

I went back and read the comments in the original post—funny stuff.

Astute Obser