Irvine Housing Blog

Not only did Brad Delp die last year but he killed himself.  He was a friend of mine.  it’s terrible. I still am not over the horror of his death.

That’s why we never go to Laguna in the summer time, only in the winter.  The locals all know that the Laguna might as well be 200 miles away from Newport or the 405 in the summer time.

The RE agent should know, but then they are not wont to be quite honest with their descriptions.

Maybe they figure that if you can afford to pay their price you could afford to rent a helicopter and fly from Quail Hill to Laguna… then it’s indeed a short latte to the ocean.

Bogus….

A half gallon of coffee on the Laguna Canyon road drive? That will seem like an eternity, spent looking for public bathrooms.

We grind our beans in a Starbucks grinder and then make the coffee with water off our water filter set up.  We use full Kona or Kauai beans and the medium body brew is wonderful.  No bitterness at all. 

Per cup it’s expensive but I’d rather drink less coffee anyways.  So we just make half a mug and love it.

Expresso wise we buy the Starbucks expresso shots in those paper disks.  Since we use it for Capuccino or Cafe Au Lait we are not fascist about our expresso coffee.

Yep… if you want to go from Quail Hill to Laguna in a summer evening, specially in a weekend, you better pack a half gallon thermos of late for your drive.  What a bogus RE line.

yup, the phenomenon is national.  folks continue to underestimate just how real asset inflation is, even as prices continue to fall in the frothier markets.  the reality is that the american middle class as we knew it is really something for the history books, and the forces that helped create it - the FHA, GI bill, farm subsidies, etc, are the same ones that helped destroy it, as FNMA/FRE, skyrocketing tuition and warped food prices were the inevitable result when these institutions institutionalized the ‘funny money’ involved.  make no mistake - a nice SFR wil probably always be out of reach for the median income in almost every market from now on, and the lower the price gets, the lower incomes will go with it.

That is a good suggestion. Let’s try it.

I wish we were making tons of money off the blog. Blog revenues are not very high, plus we don’t burden the site with too much advertising, so we are not getting rich—unfortunately.

Irvine Renter (and other principals of this blog)—Wow, over a hundred comments? How about an open thread so those of us without a life can nitpick each others’ comments?

And with these ... tens of fans, you must be raking in the advertising pennies. Nickels, even! If you are at a loss at how to invest those piles of loose change, I’m sure one of your regular commenters will be happy to suggest a piece of property or something… Up, up, up! Excelsior!

I agree.

I bought a Tecnovrom Mocha Master and get bitter everytime I am out of town and have to pay for a cup of coffee that isn’t as good and costs 80x as much as what you can make at home.

If the $300 machine is too spendy and you REALLY want a good cup of coffee buy a french press and boil your own water.  The MochaMaster is the close second, but second none the less.

Now that’s “infill housing”.

Well, it’s not as small as this place in Toronto:

http://www.t-six.com/showthread.php?p=161538

The term “Floplord” is beautiful.

There seems to be a common sentiment that if the owner can just manage to hold on for two more years, the market will have recovered.

I wonder how many of these owners are renting out and waiting for the two years?  Awgee, I think you are going to see downward pressure on rents, too.  It is the old supply/demand thing and it is going to stretch people to the breaking point.  This all will not end well.

This property for $514 sq/ft is just crazy.  A condo.  not even 1.2k sq/ft.

Insanity!

Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems to me that as vacant properties are added to the rental market, they create more supply and competition in rental market in addition to the supply they create in the sales market.  Is it possible these additions will affect both the sales and the rental markets, thus decreasing prices in both?

A lot of firmware worked got outsourced to China when we started importing boards from them.  Good luck trying to write thing on them as the “local factory rep” is usually some chinese guy living in Yorba Linda and working out of his house.

The moment you ask him about the ioLib interface or the POST code he’ll babble like Fu Man Chu and give you some phone number in China.  If you dial that number, you’re guaranteed a visit from local security or Homeland security ( the former if you work aerospace, the latter if you do commercial).

Then layer 4 and above is done in China “ Hello, my name is… Ryan… may I help you?“....  Yep… they got these shells companies in the US where four of five indian americans manage to ship requirements to Bangalore.

Mind you, I’m sort of jealous of some of these guys because they make gobs of money and live in TR. 

Then you get the COBOL, .net, C#... folks… let’s get serious.  That work NEVER paid well.  You could not be a programmer in those fields and afford a house in Irvine.

Forget it.

Microsoft and Web weenies…  forget it….  It doesn’t pay much.

As far as experience is concerned… go to UCI’s Extension Program and read books.  With a PC you can learn tons too.  When I started in this field, you literally needed a PDP or VAX to get experience.

Powerpoint programming though?  Oh Dear…

Bottom line, anyone can learn a new language reasonably well in two months.

But it takes years to learn the trade.  If you have spent years in COBOL, don’t expect to become a master at web design or in embedded/BSP/kernel code.

It’s not the language, it’s the subfield of software that matters.

Gotta go…. time to buy a house….

Forget the coffee… there used to be a real good brewery down there. 

Their golden ale and IPA pints were great before going back to the Bremerton Ferry.

Sadly, I don’t remember seeing last Christmas (come to think about it, I don’t remember seeing it for a few years now).

That’s the one.  The other was up the street that ran along the open air market there.  Can’t remember it’s name.

Cafe du Monde?? - great coffee and beignets

I’ve had that same idea, then I realized, I can’t go through life that wired from testing my own coffee all day to make sure the roast is right.  I then started day dreaming of retiring to a little vineyard and can to the opposite but same conclusion.

This reminds me of that coffee house in Nawlins that roasted their own.  It was just up the street from the Bignet & Coffee place that shares the building with the Oyster place near Jackson square. Cripes, I can’t remember the name of a single place, but can still remember the coffee from both places. Sadly the bignets too.  I wonder if they’re still there?

Was that a three bedroom, Plan 1? 

Ours was a four bedroom Plan 2 with two bedrooms, bathrooms and dining room on the atrium.

By now, of course, it’s something quite different and our old master bedroom is my office/second guest room.

Yes, if you got 440 bucks per square foot on a slightly expanded and renovated home you got a killing.  I’ve always thought that 400 bucks per square foot was a lot for my chateau.  But then, I tend to be conservative and never understood the bubble and 500 bucks was inconceivable.

A lot of people who have almost stock homes think (want) to get as much per square foot as those of us who have rebuilt from the studs…  Oh well….

Other than that, you’d be surprised as how much interest there is on second floors. The builders are suddenly looking for work.  I spoke with a neighbor that got quoted 800 bucks per square foot on his second floor addition.  I told him to wait a year… but from the sound of it the builders are dropping their prices fast.

And many homeowners sitting on big equity positions and low mortgages don’t seem to have problems coming up with $200K or more to do the construction.

Oh well.. someone’s gotta keep Pacific Sales humming.  And Home Depot should have sales on lumber and drywall soon enough.

Sorry bud… My sister works at Doctor Evil’s HQ a few blocks South of Safeco Field (yep… we got a Rally Monkey down here…. )

We both like Kona Roasts.  Medium roast, high caffeine (dark roastshave less caffeine) and no hint of bitterness.

She does get all kinds of crazy stuff from work to try out ( they get a free pound a week) and Christmas time I get all kinds of fun stuff to try.

I do like the Xmas blends.

Then, down the street, my neighbor’s husband works for Dr. Evil’s legal empire and he also gets coffee…

As I said, Xmas time we’re buried in a sea of Coffee and Evil Paraphernalia.

The problem with those roasts is that they are all blends.  The trick is to get the Estate Grown Coffee from small farms.  You can get Kona over the Internet.

Our ( wife and I ) plan is to buy a coffee state in Kailua Kona (from the 2500 to 4000 level) and grow peabodies in our Heavenly Highlands Caffeine Estates for the rest of our lifes.

No more shoes… just slippahs…. and watch out fo’ the spiders.

An open air toilet like Sir Richard Branson’s.  Hang loose bruddah!  Fo’ real.

BTW. Xmas in Kailua-Kona is highs of 80, lows of 72.  Xmas in Seattle… don’t ask..    even Irvine gets cold at night in December.  Brrrr..

Aloha.

You’re right, Major. I was kind of kidding, too.

But we already are outsourcing some legal work: http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/14/news/economy/lawyer_outsourcing/index.htm

Not to mention loads of other high tech jobs. Just do a search for which jobs are being outsourced to India - you’ll be surprised. Wasn’t there a stink recently about an LA area newspaper outsourcing coverage of local government/city council meetings to journalists in India?

You’re right, Major. I was kind of joking, too. But we are already outsourcing some legal work:
http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/14/news/economy/lawyer_outsourcing/index.htm

not to mention financial analysis and other work done by highly educated people:
http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/July07/ILRKuruvilla.html

Just do a search on which jobs are outsourced to India and you will be surprised. Wasn’t there a stink recently over some LA area newspaper outsourcing local government coverage to journalists overseas?

Anyway, all this will hit a wall eventually. Even though India has a billion people only a small fraction of them are educated enough to do what we need them to do. Already in tech there’s high turnover and increasing wages over there as companies steal employees from one another. With my department’s development partner in India I think we’ve had 50% turnover in recent years.

Still a datapoint without (1) confirmation (2) related data for comparison is meaningless.  Though it does sound like a very low number.

I would expect the number to be low given the complete meltdown in the mortgage market.  The market is holding its breath waiting for the Fed to act, and the LIBOR curve to normalize in relation to Treasuries.  Both of these things will happen.  When they do we will see a marginal improvement in fundamentals, and a temporary improvement in confidence.

The next move will be a dead cat bounce.

Let me see if I interpret this correctly Waiting, you believe that intelligent people would not use profanity (abbreviations thereof) or exclamations such as “Oh My God”?!  I’m sorry my friend, but you must have led a very sheltered existence…

I too was in high school in the 80’s, and had to worry about Crips and Bloods beating up on me or my friends because the color of clothes we selected.  We didn’t say to them, “Excuse me Mr. Hoodlum, please refrain from directing your socio-economic angst against me.“  You can bet I was saying “Get the F away from me!“ as I was running for my life.

Somehow I managed to still go to college, get a couple degrees, work in management for a number of years in a Fortune 100, and amazingly, be entrusted completely with the financial and legal health of a company with a 100+ employees.  Along the way, in classrooms, boardrooms, and yes all over the internet, I have encountered what I could consider as many intelligent and thoughtful people that used expletives on occassion to convey their ideas, thoughts, or emotions. 

I think your view is quite myopic, although I could just be a dumb MF that don’t know $hit…

Tonye,

My house in the Broadmoor was upgraded somewhat.  Granite countertops, remodeled bathrooms, cherry floors, recessed lighting, etc.  But the Master was in the front of the house with sliding doors to the atrium and people didn’t care for that.  I put central AC into the house when I moved in (I can’t believe it didn’t have it for 30 years) but it just didn’t want to sell.  Most of my competition to sell has since been pulled from the market.  There is very little turnover in TR right now.  Our house was a somewhat expanded (back two bedroom and den pushed out 10 feet) plan 1.  it was 2010 sq ft.  We got $440/sq-ft for it.  What a coup… I think the buyers are probably going to have to wait a long time to make a profit.

I agree TR is an awesome neighborhood.  I hope I can afford to move back someday.  It was the best place to walk my dogs I’ve ever seen.  If my old house were upgraded to two stories it would have a peek-a-boo ocean view… I used to go out on the roof with my wife and look at Newport.

One thing I’m not thrilled about is the curb appeal of the original homes.  Hello giant garage with no set back.  The Broadmoor is definitely following the lead of Harbor View in Newport, but this housing debacle will probably delay the conversion a few more years.

One thing this whole episode made me think of is why are sellers still so greedy?  I mean I dropped my house $100k and STILL got a ludicrous profit.  Of course I would have preferred to get more money (who wouldn’t), but what is the deal with Realtor’s saying lowball offers are insulting when you are offering to give the seller several hundred large in profit for sitting on their asses?  My next door neighbors were a retired Irvine police officer who bought the house new and a teacher who bought in the late 70s.  They aren’t going anywhere.  There were two other analog designers on my street that bought recently but I would imagine they have the resources to ride it out if things go south.

Carl

In most of Irvine, you have lots of long term homeowners.  Just so long as they didn’t HELOC or refinance with huge cash outs, they are sitting on tremendous equity.

This blog makes a lot of noise about the NEW developments where prices are indeed the most volatile because most everyone bought at the peak, with weird mortgages and now are seeing the need to refinance or sell.

But those new developments are still a small portion of Irvine.

Also, I don’t think the “long term” owners with equity will drive prices down.  I think those owners will simply not play the market unless they see the opportunity to snag a “move up” chateau up the hill for an obnoxious price. 

And, remember too that long term owners pay very little RE tax because of Prop 13.  So I got the feeling that most long term owners will leave their houses only when they die.

And then the house will stay within their estate and family… because the estate inherits the tax benefits.

I think this is how Irvine is slowly becoming “old” money… by virtue of inheritance of long held homes with gobs of equity.

Of course, this won’t happen in the newfangled villages for a looooong time, and will take 20 years to start in Woodbridge, but in TR it has already started.

Yes I do.

We kept the atrium and built around.  We like it because we put in a two barrel water fountain and a table with chairs.  We eat out there quite often in the summer and it’s the designated table top korean BBQ spot.

Plus it’s a great place to smoke cigars.

Next year I’m going to put a 40 inch flat LCD display there too… I’m just waiting for Costco to sell a Bravia for 1200 bucks or so.

I suppose the difficulty on selling would be on how it’s presented and which floorplan you have.  Most of the floorplans have the master bedroom on the atrium.  We put a second story (with a heavily reinforced 600 sq foot second story deck where we have an 8 foot inflatable pool) and move the master bedroom up there.  So that helped with our privacy.

We also changed the layout internally so it flows better.

And yes, most of us have owned this homes for ever.  So the most neighbors don’t seem in much of a rush to sell.

We rebuilt ours from the studs, removed the aliminum wiring, all new plumbing, kitchen, baths, etc… and the location is very near the schools…  And there’s a move a foot nowadays for many folks to expand their homes.  The Broadmoor is the ONLY place in TR where you can buy a single story and add second on top.  Most of Irvine is already two stories, or like the TR Terrace, you are limited on height because of view lots behind you.

HOw big was your house?  A plan 1. 2, 3?

Was it upgraded?  The non upgraded homes are now 40 years old and plagued by slab leaks, non AC’s, with insufficient amperage and aluminum wiring here and there.

WaitingToBuyByAndBy,

Thank you for your post. I appreciate your kind words. I will admit to feeling a sense of satisfaction to seeing my vision of events come to pass; while at the same time, I feel a sense of sadness for the ramifications of it all.

I have been questioned on the use of colorful language before, and I have given it considerable thought. The edginess of this language reflects the emotional intensity of the issue.

I don’t know if you have ever done any “inner work,“ but I can tell you it is not a place for political correctness. By using these expressions (hopefully in an inoffensive way through abbreviations,) it taps in to the deeper emotional issues surrounding the housing bubble. Without this emotional context, the whole discussion becomes academic and banal.

You will not find me using these expressions in a gratuitous manner (well, maybe sometimes) but rather to jar people into examining their own feelings about these issues. It is easy for people to stay in their heads and ignore their real beliefs and feelings that reside in their emotions. I want to have a discussion that fully engages the individual, not one that merely bats around intellectual concepts.

Tonye,

Do you live in the Broadmoor?  It was harder than HELL to sell my Broadmoor home last year.  Everyone hated the floorplan and the damn atrium.  I wish I had one of those rebuilt houses, they are quite beautiful.

I had to leave for a new job, and was owning two houses for a while.  It took a brutal price cut to move the house.  And this was after I initially priced it BELOW what the Realtor suggested.

What is funny about TR is so many of these houses are sitting around but a dramatic 10% price drop would move the house and the owner would still net an obscene profit.

Carl

Don’t get it,

The rule of Californian real estate development is to name a subdivision after what was destroyed to build it.  Hence Quail Hill, Oak Creek, Rolling Hills Estates, etc. etc.

Carl

Is this where we all get awkwardly silent?

I’m wondering if Irvine Renter’s bubble analysis should not be required reading before posting. Some of these posts suggest this bubble is still deep in the denial stage. I can only imagine what the changing real estate landscape must look like to people who have only been watching for the last four or five years (or less).

I do not want to bring fear to people, however, from my own experience lurking on this site I can tell you this:

Back when IR and others talked about how these exotic loans were going to go away and the only way you were going to buy a house was going to be with a significant down payment, I found their remarks outlandish, ridiculous, a little bit of an over-reaction. I mean after all, these companies are in the business of making loans, and even if the buyers get messed up, how does that affect the brokers who made the loan in the first place? They’re free and clear by that point. Why shouldn’t things continue as they have always been I wondered.

I wish I could tell you when I read those comments, I know this though, they were at least 3 months before the turmoil. But they were right, and look where we’re at now. Clearly, I had a misconception about how things worked because subprime is simply gone. Those exotic loans. Gone. It’s hard to be politely quiet for the sake of someone’s dignity when we are heading into completely unchartered territory.

Prices must be sustained by something. They don’t simply float up into the heavens. Just as the collective force of irrational mania drove prices above reasonable prices, the force of irrational fear is going to drive them below reasonable prices. How is that possible? Go read the bubble analysis article and learn. I’m not kidding. As unpleasant as it sounds, you owe it to yourself to consider where we are at right now in the bubble curve.

As for you Irvine Renter, from your musical selections I feel like we must have gone to High School together in the early 80’s. Whether that is true or not, I have enjoyed your combination of music and housing analysis. I thank you for sharing with us your insight (especially in the face of all the bulls that used to come in here). I have learned much from this site and am thankful to have come across it.

That said, I marvel at some of the language used on this site. Perhaps I’m just a prude (can a guy be a prude?). I’m not fond of the use of OMG, WTF, and FB. I don’t think abbreviating bad words really makes them okay to use. I’m certainly not suggesting you came up with these terms, and I have to admit they have a high-frequency on the internet (though rarely does one find them on news sources and other professional writing). And to be fair, we’re all adults. At the same time, the rest of yoyr writing is so balanced that these terms seem a little out of place. I’m occasionally shocked to see one pop up in the course of a sentence.

I guess the point I’m trying to make is that your writing comes across as intelligent and well-worded, so I’m left wondering why you would ever use these terms. Yes, I’ve seen the asking prices. Yes, I know the plight of unlucky borrowers. Couldn’t we call them UBs here? I guess that’s just not a cool enough term.

I’m also left wondering at what point the Jim Jones saga became a source of amusement instead of a stern warning. Again I realize “drinking the kool-aid” has been tossed about for a number of years. I don’t blame you personally for using the expression, but I do question the decision to do so. Don’t get me wrong, I think you have an excellent sense of humor. It may just be me.

Mortgage Brokers say 57% of clients couldn’t refi in AUG.
http://thegreatloanblog.blogspot.com

Keep up the great work irvinehousingblog. One of my favorite reads.

Can I send these links to “House Hunters” with a suggestion that they need a DC episode, pronto—- and if they care at all about ratings, they should definitely feature this Real Estate Professional and her clients.  Watching the husband try to play it straight while he asks"is there hardwood under that carpet?“ would be priceless entertainment!

By the way, tonye, up here in Seattle we consider Starbucks strictly for amatuers. The afficianados, myself among them, roast their own. It’s surprisingly easy: a hand-cranked popcorn popper works best.

My faves:

- Ethiopian, roasted light

- Blend of equal parts Central American (light roast), Sumatran (medium roast), Columbian (French roast).

Overrated and overpriced:

- Home ownership

- Hawaiian Kona beans

Sometimes I drip it. Sometimes I steam it in the espresso maker and then add hot water. Sometimes I use a Chemex pot. Sometimes I use a French press. It all depends on my mood.

How to roast in a hand-cranked popcorn popper:

- Medium-high heat on the burner

- Use the crank to insure an even roast

- Use a range hood, because roasting coffee smells like burning popcorn

- Remember the Rice Krispies jingle, snap crackle pop? Coffee beans go through two “cracks.“ The first crack sounds like the “snap” and the “pop.“ Just like popping popcorn. You let it go all the way to the end of the first crack no matter what. The degree of darkness depends on how far into the second crack you go. The second crack sounds like the “crackle.“

- Light roast = the very beginning of the second crack.

- Medium roast = about 25 seconds into the second crack

- French roast = about 45 seconds into the second crack

You know the heat’s too high if:

- There’s no time interval between the first crack and the second crack. Ideally there should be a pause of 15 or 20 seconds between the two cracks.

- Your coffee catches on fire and burns your house down. If you’re upside down on the loan, consider it a gift!

When you’re done roasting:

- Pour the coffee into a metal strainer or collander and toss it to dissipate the heat. I usually walk outside while I do this, to better dissipate the smell, too. (Which, by the way, I find pleasant in small doses.)

- Once it’s cooled down (not smoking or crackling), pour it into a container.

- Leave the container lid partly open for five or six hours to let gases escape.

- Light roasts can be drunk right away. Dark roasts need to sit for a day and a half or two days. If you drink a dark roast too soon, it won’t be awful or dangerous, it’ll just taste thin and metallic.

- Someone told me that I should let the Ethiopian light roast sit for a couple weeks before drinking it, but I lack the patience!

I juggle three jobs including being a realtor, a part owner and dance instructor at me and my sister’s competitive dance studio Woodbridge Academy of Dance, and cheerleading and staying involved in the local Professional Dance Company The Capitol Movement Project.

Didn’t she mean that she jiggles three jobs? Besides, with this real estate market, wouldn’t that be two and a half jobs?

Have 20+ years experience doing firmware - Been working at current job for 2 years - but was out of work 6 months before being hired.  When I was looking, over half of the people who interviewed me were not born here.  I also at one time worked for a start-up that I was the only non Indian engineer.
Its true, any good programmer will pick up another language in a couple months.

“Generous relocation package”

I believe the governer is a naturalized citizen, but I was somewhat joking concerning the foreign politicians.

However, we should be able to tap into another country’s brain power in our courts of law.  I’m pretty certain that only American citizens can practice law in our court system.  So, I say let’s let other foreigner’s practice law here too (or even remotely) - just like the engineers.  I believe the medical field is going in this direction, as I’ve read/heard about radiology tasks being outsourced to foreigners.

Time to undercut the lawyers.

get Illy E.S.E. Pods about .65 each compared to a 1.75 at starbucks. I Illy beans are better but now I have Lavaza box of 150 pods at .40 each. very good no grinding going on on know thats even cheaper but what a mess.

what if you could only deduct, say, the first 10k of mortgage interest?

Irvine is a planned community. That’s why it never ceases to amaze me when I see these cramped little updates of Sleeping Beauty’s Castle on the outskirts of Disneyland: they planned that?

That’s classic - perfectly indicitive of the past few years’ real estate market.

I won’t ask how you found this web page lendingmaestro…

Very funny, Major. But I think you’re a little behind the times. CA’s governor case in point.

BTW, did you know that the largest users of H1-B’s are foreign companies such as Tata? They just love beating us at our own game.

“...with all the high tech companies importing H-1B’s…“

I don’t have a problem with US companies hiring foreigners to undercut the pay of the local citizens.

However, I think we should be allowed to have foreign lawyers represent us in court (lower the cost of litigation) and be allowed to elect foreign politicians (to compete with the ones that legistlate allowances for all the foreign born workers).

Glad to see people out there use M-Audio gear…  I did some of the electrical design on the Transit (and multiple other M-Audio products).  Many of the guys around here are huge Zappa fans - we even had a viewing of the Baby Snakes here at the office last year. 

Keep up the good RE discussions guys - I really enjoy reading them!

Size of New Homes Starts Shrinking As Builders Battle Housing Slump

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118955679788724507.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Good God! 5 YEARS, Anonymous? I’ll be a fat, bloated Homer Simpson-like corpse by then.

Actually, I have a stable job. And due to nepotism I have a second job on the side where I’m learning more current stuff.

I just DESPISE all the corporations bemoaning the lack of talent when they just aren’t willing to pay for it.

(BTW, my comments directly above were for ipoplaya. I just took too long to write them.)

Right, so we agree.

This means that there are qualified people out there. I find it disingenuous to say that there’s a shortage of talent when there really isn’t. Making outsiders think that we need all those H1-B’s. It’s just that there are only short-sighted employers hiring. (By the way, hear about MicroSoft promoting cricket in order to attract Indian employees? How ‘bout spending that money on some talented Americans with potential?)

I don’t think I intimated that companies hire based on training. (I have several classes in C#, .NET, and PM under my belt.) I agree they hire based on experience in a particular language. So if you’re talented but don’t happen to have the right keyword on your resume for the automated search, sorry, you’re SOL.

And as for developing someone for years, a decent programmer will only take a couple of months to become proficient in a new language. As shown by your COBOL programmer who interned for only 6 months before being able to find a more senior position.

My dilemma is very like your COBOL programmer with the exception that I have a cushy, well-paid position where I can work from home. So I’m loath to leave just to get experience in a more desirable language. I figure I can wait ‘til they kick me out the door with a nice severance. Which at this point doesn’t seem likely. I’ve been waiting for us to upgrade our technology for the past 4 years and it looks like, thanks to MicroSoft murdering V FoxPro, I may finally get some marketable experience in the next 6 months. At least I hope so, I’m getting a little old for the disco cage.

But I do appreciate your taking time to research this and respond. Working from home (my department is actually in NoCal) I get a little lonely for tech talk.

I have seen similar calculators which show the impact of depreciation. It paints a pretty grim picture. Of course, it assumes you sell at the bottom which may not be the case. I think it is a reaction to all the BS realtor calculators that always show it is better to buy.

The gross rent multiplier was discussed here:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/03/03/how-inflated-are-house-prices/

And yes, we may very well overshoot fundamentals to the downside.

I don’t know. It was a statistic our CEO heard through the grapevine. When you think about the population and the number of homes for sale in the 3 county area, 116 is a very low number for new home sales. Very low…

A realtor, a dancer and a cheerleader…

I imagine she is a good closer…

I haven’t worked awhile (now slumming at home with the kids), but where I worked, was at the time considered a premium (if not the premium) software development company everyone wanted into with compensation and screening to match.  There was no lack of applicants.  I was surprised that after finally managing to get hired there, it was not all geniuses roaming the halls as I had expected (there were some, but not everyone as I had previously thought).

My remarks are towards what the hiring managers (ie. your future boss or bosses boss) are looking for.  Unfortunately, if you don’t know them directly, you have to go though the HR department who typically have no idea how to code, so they screen with dumb questions like “how many years experience with language X do you have”, so it’s kind of hard.  Network - try to find someone already inside who will pull you an HR bypass (or find a good recruiter who has those relationships already) to get your resume to the hiring managers desk.

Also, go get a copy of hot language X or Y and write some code.  Code sample goes a long way when you finally get to talk to the hiring manager. If you can write something you can run on a webpage, better still, go put it on your homepage and link it in your resume.

Good luck!  Persitance pays off - took me 5 years to get hired at my dream job, but you can do it!  Just keep knocking on doors.

What and when was the previous low?

Sorry, that was suppsed to be a “did not come up in any”...

Patience,

Companies don’t hire based on training in current languages.  They are looking for productive on-the-job experience, and sometimes wait longer to find someone in that spec to hire than if they would have hired a good COBOL guy and got him some good training.

It sucks, as it is hard to find good C, C#, or .Net guys, but no one has the “patience” to train and develop.  Companies hire based off immediate need usually, not talent or long-range value.  It’s not like a sports franchise that can draft a rookie and pay to develop him for years based on potential.  It usually about getting projects done ASAP or getting a product out the door.

I have a few guys in a similar situation as you, one a great COBOL programmer who we had take a bunch of .Net classes.  He then interned for super cheap somewhere as a junior developer so he could get paid dev experience in his new language on the resume.  After six months of that, we were able to place him into a more senior level position at another company.  He was able to take almost a year off with pretty much no salary though, which many can’t do.

I sometimes see companies looking for PowerBuilder people, but that is very seldom.  I just searched all the job requirements we have (150+), which span four different states, and COBOL, PB, or FP did come up in any.  Java came up in 12, .Net in 6, and C# in 5…

I have listened to Frank Zappa’s Joe’s Garage. At the time (this was before rap) it was the only music full of cursing and references to sex acts. Being the age I was, I thought it was really cool.

REO pricing shouldn’t be surprising anyone yet.  The banks aren’t being pressured to dump the non-performing assets yet and just like most everybody else, they are hoping (literally) the market this year is simply a blip and that everything will be fine again by next Spring.

We’re talking the denial stage still.  Most of our friends, neighbors, heck, our communities are the very same people working in these institutions and nobody wants to believe the market has changed so dramatically.  Nobody wants to believe their house is worth only what somebody will pay for it.

We’re on a rollercoaster and sitting at the very peak where momentum has virtually stopped (no sales), but the pressure behind will eventually push us over—it is just that nobody wants to be sitting in the first car.  However, first car or last the kool-aid drinkers are in for a heck of a ride.

I drink Trader Joe’s Kona and Kauai’i beans only.

We do grind them fresh with our Starbucks grinder though.  It does a fantastic job of uniformly grinding the coffee and you taste the difference… Of course, I don’t put any of that foo foo stuff into my coffee.

Only a Starbucks grinder and purified water comes between me and my Island Bean.

BTW, have you ever tried Peabody Kona beans? 

Starbucks coffee at the coffee stores is for the would be aficionados. 

Real coffee nazis make their own coffee, drip or french press.

Aloha.

I haven’t seen many “for sale” signs in TR. 

The only home in my neighborhood for sale needs a new roof badly, they want like a MIL for it, it was bought two years ago and it’s been on the market for three months.

Knowing the history of that house, I’d give them $700K because it has a pool and a nice inside lot.  But all in all the current owners did not take care of the house. 

I know the long term owner that sold six years ago took very good care of the home and added a nice addition to the master bedroom.  The next owners were flippers who timed it right and did diddly squat to the house.  The current owners are getting hosed.

I’m curious, but either way I wouldn’t be too surprised at a shockingly low number this month.  BUT, let’s not forget that one point does not make a line.

realtwhore alert!

IR…if you deem inappropriate u can delete

http://www.redskins.com/cheerleaders/profile.jsp?id=472

http://www.redskins.com/cheerleaders/profile.jsp?id=467

Priceless!!!

Hi IR - I appreciate your sincerity.  While I will admit to a small amount of anxiety, I certainly do not feel anger or anguish.

I am simply the devil’s advocate on this board - that is my role.  Many posters get a little carried away with the predictions, and I feel compelled to challenge them.

For example, my wife and I purchased in August of 2006.  I actually saw the exact same floorplan sell for $15K more than we paid in July of this year.  How would you interpret that data point?  You may say…well, that is one data point…  Which is exactly one of the points I have brought up.  Many of these properties that are featured are singular data points and may not be totally reflective of the market as a whole.  But, I digress.

I agree 100% that aggregate declines are in still in front of us, but I don’t agree that we are in store for another Great Depression.

FG

I’m liking the espresso machine I have now as well - you’re right, much cheaper. I’m also fortunate they provide free coffee at work.

Starbucks is good, but I see it as more of a once-in-a-while type place.

By the way, Anonymous for the moment, I’m betting you haven’t looked for a job in recent years, have you? You’ve been employed with the same firm for quite a while right?

And what salary are you offering for the people you are interviewing? I’ve found when responsible for interviewing that this relates directly to the quality of the applicants.

I would assume around here there would be some decent UCI grads looking for jobs. This isn’t the case?

LMAO tonye, good stuff.  I’ve been working a bunch with the ps3 over the past couple of months.  It’s good to be back down close to the metal.

If it’s so difficult to find IT talent, why don’t these companies offer some training for programmers in other languages to switch over? My experience is unfortunately in 3 dead languages - COBOL (actually, I just don’t like this one), PowerBuilder, and mostly, ugh, Visual FoxPro. I’ve been with the same company for almost 11 years now - survived at least 3 rounds of layoffs due to my versatility and proven value to management.

If you are intimating that I’m a less than stellar programmer, Anonymous for the moment, let me give you an example from the start of my career. When I first started interviewing for jobs I took a written test at one company. The interviewer gave me an A on the test and then proceeded to tell me that even though I had done better than most experienced programmers and even though I had a degree in Comp Sci and he was impressed with me, his company couldn’t take a chance on someone without experience. I don’t think much has changed since then.

If jobs are so damn plentiful here, why haven’t I even gotten interviews after talking with 3 different recruiters? (I’m not talking about jobs - I’m talking JUST INTERVIEWS.) Oh wait, sorry. I was offered an interview for an instructor’s position.

I am about to get some experience in C#. I’m betting that will turn things 180 degrees.

And thanks for the tip about graphics programming, Genius. Unfortunately, I’m a knucklehead when it comes to visual layouts. My web pages look god awful. As long as someone else lays it out I can code it. But my nephew is graduating with a degree in Comp Sci in December - I’ll tell him.

“Banks are allowed to own their premises and offices, but they cannot invest in speculative real estate. Any property that a bank takes back as collateral for a bad loan is OREO or REO, and it is property a bank is supposed to sell. How quickly it has to be sold is debatable, but it must be sold. “

Does anyone know what the “debatable” time limit is from a regulatory standpoint? I would think that if you marked when the resets on Arms occured and went 90-120 out from there and then added on the regulatory limit of days the bank could hold the property without it being considered speculating, then you may get a timeframe when a pricing decrease may occur…does this seem logical?

There are two sites with this info….i’ve been trying to post them but they will not post….....

I can’t speak for IR, but I think intrinsic value is way over optimistic.

By the way, someone has to tell the realtors that when you use the word “classy” in an ad, it tells potential buyers that the place is a spiffed-up trailer park.

Well, hello…. that’s why they are bears! If they would say: “ok, we bottomed out, prices are going to rise again soon”, they would be bulls, not bears.

Bears unite!!

Check out this site:

http://www.orange-county-real-estate-coach.com/weblogirv.html

When times were good this RE agent used to publish all of the closed homes….it was normal to see between 30 and 50 homes a week close.

Also, check out theis site:

http://orangecoastrealestate.com/irvine/irvine_real_estate_trends.htm

and add the homes plus the condos.

FamilyGuy,

I feel the anguish and anger this market situation is creating for you. It comes through in some of your postings. For your sake, I hope you are right and this correction does not turn into a full scale collapse. Good, hard-working people like yourself who were just providing shelter for their family shouldn’t get hurt this way.

Uhmm, actually it doesn’t. Capitalism that is. Capitalism needs people who try to maximize their utility subject to their budget constraint…which most of us do (not consiously though).

I was in a meeting most of today. I heard rumor at this meeting that new home sales for LA, Orange and Riverside counties totalled 116 for the last 30 days. This is the lowest 30 day total ever recorded.

Lendingmaestro called in in our forum on August 8:

http://forums.irvin