Drift lower or decade of flattening is best-case scenario for housing, Ritholtz

Aug 15th, 2011  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by JK
2011-08-15 07:58 AM

I know CA is a non-recourse state but when you refinance like that is the loan still non-recourse then?
If it isn’t couldn’t banks go after these people later down the line?

Astute Observation by tazman
2011-08-15 09:00 AM

Yes, any HELOC or cash-out refi becomes a recourse loan in Cali…  the problem is, if you’re a bank, is how do you manage that many lawsuits and is it worth it?  Because if you get the judgement the former loan owner can just file BK and make it go away…

Astute Observation by Swiller
2011-08-15 09:54 AM

Yes, you can treat your home like a business. You can be irresponsible to the max, yet just stiff the creditors and declare BK 13, have your buddy buy the business, and reform.

Works for business why not the rest of America?

Taxes at one of the lowest points in history, and union membership is around what…15-20%? Neo-cons should be jizzing in their pants and the world should be right as rain because the plutocrats have everything their way….keep bashing unions and make sure the rich pay zero taxes, and watch what happens to America.

Astute Observation by DarthFerret
2011-08-15 12:20 PM

I understand your current situation a lot better after reading the post above.

-Darth

Astute Observation by Swiller
2011-08-15 08:57 PM

The evil force is strong in you Darth. Your power is great to read minds and judge another so, I cower in your presence.

-Luke

P.S. Can you use your force power to raise the value of my home and stock portfolio?

Astute Observation by wheresthebeef
2011-08-15 08:36 AM

Like the article mentioned, I think it’s becoming more evident by the day that home prices will either be flat or go down for the forseeable future.  Unless you absolutely NEED a house right now, there really isn’t any hurry to buy…especially in still inflated areas.  What is latest word on TIC’s Laguna Altura?  Have sales improved at all or did they run out of FCBs?

Astute Observation by P
2011-08-15 09:00 AM

I’ve been curious about this for a while. We went to visit three weeks after it opened and they had sold only a few. My husband stoped by last week and was told all of Phase I has been sold out. 

I like Laguna Altura, but having construction nearby for the next two/three years isn’t something I would like to live with on a daily basis.

Astute Observation by Swiller
2011-08-15 09:13 PM

Wow, who told your husband phase 1 was sold out? Last I had heard, only 6 or 7 units were sold, and a few of those….well I heard ALL of those, were sold to people with ties to TIC to help make it look like there is *some* demand.

I’m still a firm believer that Bren knows the real estate development of Irvine is done and over with, and he is developing the last shreds and getting rid of a asset in decline.

BTW, those homes in Altura are not acceptable. There are virtually no yards and they are spaced together and like monopoly buildings. It’s a crying shame, almost a crime, how fast Bren raped the land into concrete cookie cutter buildings. No one will ever ride down Sand Canyon with the orange blossoms completely filling the air, indeed, there are no orange groves left at all.

Astute Observation by P
2011-08-17 03:46 PM

It was the sales office that told my husband.  IrvineRenter clarified how they report the numbers - and that makes a lot more sense than what the office said.

Personally, I don’t mind the location of LA.  And while cramped and overpriced, I don’t find the homes any different than any other Irvine home.  All of them are tract homes, which something that one accepts when moving to Irvine.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-08-15 11:09 AM

Haven’t been there since opening day (shocker!) but indicators look like they are not selling well.

They are offering broker co-op and have inventory listed on the MLS… something that didn’t happen in Woodbury’s 2010 Collection.

Their first 3 tracts are way overpriced (and recycled from Stonegate), the 4th and highest tract may be reasonably priced compared to Quail Hill homes of the same size… but their floorplans aren’t very good. Who pays over $1mil for a non-view/water adjacent house with only a 2-car garage? C’mon!!!

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-08-15 11:10 AM

The numbers I have seen aren’t very good. Last report was that they closed on 6 units. Sales have been very poor since about May 15th, not that sales were great before then either, but since May 15th, sales have dropped off a cliff.

Astute Observation by P
2011-08-15 11:18 AM

Do you think they are misrepresenting the numbers, then?  I know it’s a sales office, but it would seem wrong to give out such blatantly incorrect info…oh wait…

Astute Observation by zubs
2011-08-15 11:54 AM

don’t worry…they will call or email you if a buyer drops out…All those sold buttons on the map must be real buyers right?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-08-15 02:49 PM

Builders publish sales numbers when contracts are signed not when houses close. In 2010, they reported 1200 sales while only 642 closed.

Astute Observation by BD
2011-08-15 09:45 AM

I’ve said the same thing for years…. we probably pulled 10-20 yrs of appreciation forward.  In addition, if rates rise slowly from here out we will see even more pressure on pricing.  Imagine an 8% rate…

My .02

BD

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-08-15 11:12 AM

As interest rates go up, it better be accompanied by rampant wage inflation, or the pricing pressure will continue. Given the high unemployment rate, I don’t see wage inflation on the horizon.

Astute Observation by awgee
2011-08-15 06:34 PM

It will not be accompanied by wage inflation.  It will be accompanied by higher prices for food and energy.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-08-15 11:17 AM

Are rates going to go up anytime soon?

Seems everyone keeps talking about rising rates but the gov and the banks aren’t listening.

Astute Observation by zubs
2011-08-15 11:56 AM

we are following the path of japan.  Interest rates will stay low for atleast another 10 years.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-08-15 11:14 AM

IR:

What would those previous graphs look like adjusted for the gubinterbenshun?

Are we close to bottom now? In my daily Redfin searches, it does feel like Irvine is still dropping. Maybe we are going to party like 1999.

Quiz time: What show are those American Gothic Asian cartoon characters from? (Those with children should know)

Astute Observation by Alix_Khan
2011-08-15 01:07 PM

Avatar: The Last Airbender. Man I like that show more than my 8 year old does.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2011-08-15 11:09 PM

Ding ding!

Bonus round… name the two characters.

Astute Observation by DJ
2011-08-15 01:39 PM

I am in a delimma.  I am paying $2500/month rent which is $30,000/year.  I have the cash to either put down a big downpayment or pay cash outright.  My bank CD where the cash is parked is paying 0.5% last time I checked.  Should I buy or keep paying my landlord’s retirement?

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-08-15 02:53 PM

There are properties trading at or below rental parity in Irvine, particularly for someone like yourself who can put at least 20% down and avoid mortgage insurance. Unfortunately, the only areas where I am seeing prices at or below rental parity are El Camino Real, and parts of Northwood, Deerfield, and Woodbridge. The best parts of Irvine are still inflated with some neighborhoods being very inflated. If you look outside of Irvine, finding properties at or below rental parity are much more common and the properties are more desirable.

Astute Observation by Marc
2011-08-15 03:26 PM

I was in exactly the same situation. I don’t expect another significant drop in prices and hated to write a $2,400 check every month to my landlord while my savings were actually earning a negative return due to inflation. Therefore I bought a house a little south of Irvine in january and am very happy with my decision (so far) grin. No doubt, it is a risky time to buy but I don’t see things as negative as a lot of people who post here. I think that coastal SoCal is a desirable area to live in (which creates demand) and prices have reached a level that makes RE affordable for people with reasonable incomes and savings who did not get burned in the bust…

Astute Observation by fumbling
2011-08-15 08:46 PM

I was in the same dilemma earlier this year, we had enough in CDs for a big down payment or outright purchase and had been paying for Donald Bren’s retirement for three years, the damn rent kept going up and the damn CD rates kept going down so we decided to buy after Irvine condos fell 30%.  Even if our condo goes down in value a bit more, at least we don’t have to deal with the hassle and stress of having to explain to the leasing office that they shouldn’t increase the rent in a bad economy.  The only housing monthly expense increases we have to worry about now are HOA and property tax increases, which won’t happen every year and dollar-wise should be pretty small compared to normal apartment rent increases.

Astute Observation by zubs
2011-08-15 02:35 PM

Some realestate is already at rental parity or below it..(vegas).  Find a place that is at rental parity or below it and buy it.  You can ask the owners of this blog for that help.

Astute Observation by DJ
2011-08-15 02:42 PM

But isn’t rental parity is computed assuming minimum downpayment and financing the rest?  My situation seems to be rent versus interest earned from the bank.  My rent is obviously a lot more than what I can get from the interest.

Astute Observation by IrvineRenter
2011-08-15 02:55 PM

DJ,

Contact us at sales@idealhomebrokers.com.

Astute Observation by zubs
2011-08-16 03:07 PM

I use rental parity to see if a house is likely to appreciate or depreciate.  That is all I use it for, and even then it’s all guess work….but I just want the best guess possible as it is only 1 financial indicator out of thousands.

Astute Observation by chuckconners
2011-08-15 03:12 PM

Fannie Mae is already renting properties to the former underwater home “owner”,right here in Orange County. You wouldnt know the title has been transferred on your neighbors home unless he/she blabbed about money problems or you checked county records online. No pesky For Sale sign. Easy Lease terms.For those of us who had a slight (65,000)reduction in income. Sorry, no second leins on property need apply.Too much paperwork for Ol Fannie.

Astute Observation by EMcx3
2011-08-15 06:35 PM

If you can pay cash and you want to buy, you should consider the court house steps.  The 15-20% discount you can find on a foreclosure auction would go a long way in protecting you from future price erosion.  As you said, it’s unlikely that you make any returns in a bank.

Astute Observation by ozajh
2011-08-16 08:18 PM

DJ,

First things first.  You need to cold-bloodedly calculate how long you expect (not hope; EXPECT) to live and work in the general area.

If that number is more than 5 years, consider buying if you can find an appropriate property. If not, don’t even think about it.

As others have pointed out, you are in a highly untypical situation and the opportunity cost of using your cash holdings as a down-payment is very low and not likely to increase significantly in the short/medium term.

Astute Observation by Elle
2011-08-17 12:34 PM

But don’t you think prices are going to be driven down again once they lower the jumbo loan limit, or whatever that thing is, in October? Shouldn’t you wait to buy? see what happens?

Astute Observation by American War Criminals & Fraudsters
2011-08-17 03:18 PM

“Drift lower or decade of flattening is best-case scenario for housing”

Curiously, this is ALSO the best-case scenario for the United States of America itself too.

Enjoy your national COLLAPSE America, you’ve EARNED IT!!!

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