Irvine Housing Blog

Oh my, you got to love this!

Though many of us rent by choice, this is our time Bears!  For every dollar we spend in rental cost over the next 2-4 years, we’ll save more than twice that amount when we buy at the end of this decade.
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1200 sq ft X $300 = $360k…That is what this condo should go for…

I was looking at the property across the street (318 Dewdrop) in Redfin and the living room has that media niche next to the fireplace. Does that thing server any purpose these days other than a shelter for your dog? With the penetration of flat screen TVs that hole is just too small to be practical. A bunch of properties have those and they are just hideous ...

Funny thing is that if you spend over half a million on that condo you won’t be able to fit something bigger than a 35” tube in there ...

Looks to me like this is a townhouse style condo. Meaning, no-one living above or below. If thats true, then this is a pretty nice place. 2 car attached garage is a must. And I expect townhomes to be popular in the future as boomers retire.

That 360k figure from post #2 sounds about right. It would be a good investment and/or place to live at a 360k price. At 540k, it better have the pacific ocean lapping up on some beach sand out in front.

I hear ya on that tv cubby hole thing (#3).

Love this blog!  I lived in Irvine for the last seven years.  The last year in Quail Hill (renting) since we were priced out of the market.  This blog encourages me that maybe I will own a home in OC in a few years.  I make my living as a Equities Trader and know how people respond to greed and fear.  Having a clear understanding of human emotion gives me an edge in my career.  The greed cycle I believe has peaked and once we reach the fear and pain cycle we buy.  Keep up the good work here.

This is actually a Plan 3 in the Jasmine tract built by Shea Homes in 2003.  There are 3 floors.  The view of the kitchen and living area is actually the second floor.  The first floor consists of the 2 car tandem garage and a staircase.

almost bought this for 360 in 2003.  definitely miss those days

love this model (compared to other jasmines) because of the super high ceilings in living room and tech area.

at this point though, too pricey for me.  can i rent for $2k possibly?

I have been to this unit. It is really nice the way it has the high ceilings and big balcony. The stairs are scary though. 318 Dewdrop is a bank owned home.

Great site - but I’d like to request that you stop looking at so many individual houses and focus more on the current situation in general in Irvine and the surrounding area from an overall perspective.

This is not a gripe - its a compliment. You’re analysis of *why* you think the bubble is about to pop was both interesting and compelling. I’d like to hear more. A lot more. This type of financial disaster is worth discussing on a macro/country level, as well as a micro/city one. 

Additionally, there have been so many changes in the last week (Option One’s funding cut in half, Fed reaction, market reaction). Has any of that information altered your analysis in any way?

I’m a believer in the bubble - but a great deal of sites are very partisan and frankly, bitter about the whole housing sector its tough to separate actual facts from cloudy, self-interested analysis. Your site is doing a great job of providing clear and unbiased information, and I’d love to see more.

Mike,

Everything we have seen has served to confirm our collective analysis. We have been focusing more on flips by popular demand. I will insert a few more analysis threads to keep a balance. I have been working on an analysis of the doomsday scenario and what would happen to prices if things get really bad really fast. Look for that soon.

Ya’all can see a pic of the living room here:
http://quailhillhomes.com/renestate/show_listing.php?record=167&page=1&search_type=&search_value=

And floorplans here:
http://www.quailhillhomes.com/jasmine/

Only thing I like in Quail Hill is the KaBloom flower store…  that stupid traffic circle needs to go.

Looks like the seller just reduced their price from $549,900 to $535,000.

I noticed that the price dropped, but the size of the condo increased from 1174 SqFt (S437189) to 1200SqFt (S476844) from the previous sell.

In addition to the bank owned unit at 318 Dewdrop, the trustee’s sale on 212 Dewdrop is scheduled for May 1.  Trust deed amount is $481k.  After these foreclosure sales, comps should go well below $481.  I doubt the seller here will get anywhere close to $535k; seller would be better off taking $475k and running!

I am grateful that so many homes get “showcased” on the Irvine Housing Blog.  In part, it allows me to evaluate my precise situation by showing me what I could get, where, and for how much.

Stormy Trader above couldn’t be more right about the psychology thing.  I’d just add the obvious, that people are just more prone to act (re-act) emotionally when they can relate to a set of circumstances -  and you relate better to those things you can see.

Personally, I tell everyone I know about this blog… because I want word to get around…

You bring up an interesting point about Zillow in this posting.  Can anyone explain how Zillow figures out its Zestimate numbers?  I am seeing many a home languishing on the market here in the Manhattan, Hermosa and Redondo Beach area and yet, Zillow numbers are still saying everything is still looking like it’s 2005.  Curious.

You need to pull apart the individual deals to see what’s really happening. 

If you try and read the ocean of the market straight up, you’ll be blinded by all gloss the RE industry puts in it.

You’ll look comps not realizing they are 1st payment default mortgage fraud.

You’ll look at another comp recently sold and not realize the seller kicked back $20K-$30K to the buyer.

You’ll look at another comp that sold in 3 days for 100% of asking price and have no clue that it previously sat on the market for 180 days and been marked down $100K.

And you’ll miss the three homes that couldn’t get sold at a lower prices and are sitting empty as REOs waiting for the bank to get their act together.

Why?  cuz the RE industry doesn’t incourage disclosure and transparency.

No_Such_Reality

Looks like OC foreclosures are up 676%!!

Foreclosure pace nears decade high

http://tinyurl.com/2ljoaw