Chantory - Another Turtle Ridge Flip

Nov 10th, 2006   by zovall  in Flips

Address: 77 Canyoncrest, Irvine, CA 92603 (Turtle Ridge)
Plan: 1275 sq ft - 3/2.5
MLS: S460156 DOM: 47
Sale History: 5/27/2005: $759,000
Current Price: $829,000

Here we've got a Plan 3 detached condo in the Chantory tract built by California Pacific Homes in Turtle Ridge. It was purchased about a year and a half ago with 10% down. Assuming 6% selling costs, the sellers stand to make a $20k profit!

In this case, is the potential reward of $20k worth the risk? Don't housing prices always go up? Who cares if you only plan on living in the house for a year or two. Don't rent, just buy!

Anyways, let's see what other Plan 3's are currently available:

  • 137 Canyoncrest - $769,000 (originally $795,000) - 95 DOM
  • 82 Clouds View - $798,000 - 51 DOM

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by anony
2006-11-11 12:18 AM

wing, great advice.  i totally forgot the opportunity cost of interest!

Astute Observation by Wing
2006-11-10 01:34 PM

“a $675,000 purcahse price there, 20% down”,

Now the CD rates is round 5.3%, so $135K will generate $550/month. so the total cost is $4520 + $450 =
$4970. (Assuming $100 income tax).

Astute Observation by Thomas
2006-11-10 12:25 PM

Turtle Ridge is more “coastal” as ocjohn stated, and the temperature is about 7-10 degrees cooler than Woodbury; however, I don’t think it’s worth $100K more.  The condos in both locations are overpriced.

Astute Observation by ocjohn
2006-11-10 12:16 PM

We almost rented the same floor plan in Woodbury (Cortile) for $2450 a month.  Assuming a $675,000 purcahse price there, 20% down, 6.25% 30 year fixed, 1.8% in real estate tax and Mello-Roos, and about $200 in assoiciation fees, the Woodbury plan would cost about $4520 to buy per month.  I left out the tax deduction, but it isn’t going to make enought of a diffrence in the rent vs. buy calculation. 

Turtle Ridge is more “coastal” than Woodbury, but is the location premium worth over $100K?

Astute Observation by Thomas
2006-11-10 09:44 AM

I’ve actually been tracking one of it’s competitor (82 Clouds View). 82 Clouds View originally came on the market on 5/31/06 (163 days ago) at $865.  It was then reduced on 7/11/06 for $829.  Then it was relisted under a new MLS number on 9/20/06 for it’s current price of $798.  I’ve heard it’s a divorce situation.  The same plan sold on 10/25/06 for $798.

Astute Observation by anony
2006-11-10 08:44 AM

just waaaaaaaay too many models of this type:

Turtle Ridge
Quail Hill
Oak Creek
Woodbury
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