Irvine Housing Blog

Interesting statistic from current (August 2011) edition of OC Metro Magazine

Latest News section:

“O.C. housing vacancies rise 64 percent in 10 year period

2010 Census figures show that 56,126 units were empty last year, up from 34,197 in 2000”

Like a pit bull on a arm or leg, or like herpes on a persons lip, the NAR wishes you would let go, or quickly fade away. We all know that isn’t a possibility.

Thank you for doing what you do

not sure if you guys are aware.. but the irvine company seems to have increased rents in their apartment complexes by 5-20% in the past month or so.  especially in the woodbury area.

Horror stories about [r]ealtors. Wow, where do I start? There are so many.

Full disclosure: I have taken (and passed) the real estate salesperson licensing exam for CA. I took it on a whim in 2006 when I was working for my uncle’s business shortly after returning to the U.S. after living in Europe for 6 years. I did not take the follow-on steps required to become an agent, and I never joined any [r]ealtor organization at any level (local/state/national).

I returned to the U.S. right as the very first cracks were starting to appear in the Ponzi scheme, but RE hysteria was still very much alive and well in December 2005/early 2006. Liar loans and subprime products of all flavors were still available everywhere to everyone. Within a year, I did notice some of the [r]ealtor bluster die down a bit, and by late 2008, you could literally see the doubt and fear behind their plastic smiles.

Right about the time I started reading the IHB (but before I really got Larry’s message), I submitted an offer in April 2008 for $440K on a 3/2 condo on Greenfield in Irvine (slightly below market prices at that time). Those condos are now selling as low as $325K, and they are still not at rental parity: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/54-Greenfield-92614/unit-53/home/5574565. With no yard and no garage, these units should overshoot rental parity by quite a bit before this is all done. Our [r]ealtor had all sorts of nice-sounding ideas about how the market was heading back up and Now-Is-A-Great-Time-To-Buy!. She was actually one of the less-slimy ones, too! The really ridiculous arguments (ridiculous now that my eyes have been opened!) were the ones that I heard at open houses that I toured in the area. They sound so flimsy now! I can’t believe that I was nearly taken in. There are thousands out there, unfortunately, who still haven’t gotten the message and whose lives and finances are being ruined as we speak.

We ended up rescinding our offer on the condo on Greenfield within days of making it (thanks in part to what I learned on the IHB!; the rest was the result of lots of prayer and some very clear guidance from God; sorry for those that are non-religious/anti-religious, but I’m the one that lived it, and that’s how it happened; the details of what else happened to convince us are none of your business).

I continue to tour open houses in Woodbridge on a regular basis to keep my finger on the pulse of the market, and I am STILL hearing the same tired old lines from [r]ealtors about the market coming back, rents set to skyrocket, and all sorts of other nonsense. There are some properties that pop up from time to time that are at or near fundamental values for a healthy, normal market, but do you really think that our economy is in a state to support even a normal, healthy market?!?! No, we’ve got a ways to go, folks, and, although I am getting a little weary of renting, I’m still not in any hurry to catch the falling knives.

-Darth

P.S. After Europe dies and the double dip of this DEFLATIONARY recession begins in earnest, and Europe will die by this time next year at the latest, then we’ll see where the U.S. economy and RE market are headed.

P.P.S. The not-yet-reached fundamental values for house prices in Irvine are based on PAST economic events. A new recession based on a credit crunch triggered by the failure of the Euro will be a new, future economic event that will result in a further downward adjustment of fundamental values in house prices due to falling wages/rents.

Crap. This means the online Orange County Register
pages will load slower being clogged with more propaganda realtor bs.

There’s an intriguing (to me anyway) thread up on Lansner’s Blog at the OCR.

http://lansner.ocregister.com/2011/08/29/18-new-homes-coming-to-buena-park/121501/

Now I have no idea where Buena Park might be and how it would rank with Harvard Square (I live about 18 hours flight time from LA), but on the face of it the rightmost new build in the Artist’s rendition would seem fairly similar to the featured house on this thread, and $200K or so less.