Irvine Housing Blog

Hey PR, I thought you were going to take exception with Irvine Renter’s spurious claim that auction prices do not reflect resale prices after yesterday when you used the 2007 550K auction price as a 2007 resale price in your astute observation that implied 2011 prices on par with 2007 prices in Irvine.  Please put Irvine Renter in his place - don’t let him get away with that kind of stuff.

I see 125+ 4bd/3ba SFRs in Irvine over 2000 sf, under $1M…  Were you asking a different question?

You’re funny ... let’s compare LV to Irvine in 18 months.

Hello All -

I know this blog is supposed to only be about Irvine RE.  But, we have seen lots of activity and posts about other communities in CA and elsewhere. 

The big question is do we think that macro and micro issues which affect IR RE is getting better or worse? 

In my opinion irvine has just more cash reserves to weather the storm.  Prices will remain higher and more resistant to the storm than others principely becuse people dont want to pay for private schools. 

Irvine is clearly not nearly as nice as many south county communities in landscape or affordability.  It is flat and boring.  No night life and basically corporate. 

Basically what you are paying a huge premium for is the schools and a history of price stability.  The thing is I would much rather live in MV for a 30% plus discount with ‘nearly as good schools’.  I would gladly pay for the additional tutoring of my child. 

The opportunity now for savy buyers is to go away from Irvine and get a fantastic new home with a pool etc. for a 25+% discount to Irvine with actual land. 

Your kids will do fine.  Only stupid FCBs that have little understanding of the way things work pay these stupid Irvine prices.  And they do bc they believe this is the only way to capture the American Dream!  So let them waste their money… who cares. 

You don’t have to worry.  Your child already speaks English.  Live in Coto and have 2 times the house .. leave this hopeful overpriced destination to the fools that are willing to pay for it….

If you are a foreigner reading this… than you should PAY BIG TIME for Irvine RE.  Your child needs the education just to get even in America. 

Not racists at all.. just a true to life comment. 

BD

oops, sorry, just to be clear that search is between 0 and 1000000 dollars.  (not too interested in anything over that…. can barely afford half that!)

That’s right, and then how many sell per month?

This is how you respond to facts?  And with an incorrect irvine inventory number on your page no less.  What a shame.  The factual reality will set you free.

Not particularly more so than in the past.

but he and AZ should be on your payroll for driving traffic to your blog. I actually come to read their posts more than the actual blog (no offense) because it is so entertaining.

To me personally, it seems that PR posts things to “stir $h!T up” regardless of what he actually believes or doesn’t.

As for AZ, not sure what he believes for real other than insulting people personally who disagree with him. I guess you can call him really passionate or maybe just his “online” personality.

but either way, the banter of the posters is the real entertainment of the blog IMO.

PR knows the “real” inventory number even though he denies that the shadow inventory exists.  Oh wait, he has not explicitly denied shadow inventory, he just mocks all references to it (don’t want to confuse Irvine HO).

Yes ...

... but his type never thought we were in a bubble in the first place.  Now that the govt has completely thrown everything at this problem, and Irvine was spared a complete collapse, these idiots stand back and say “I told you so”.

I know this ponzi scheme is not done unwinding.  I know the govt can’t backstop and subsidize every aspect of real estate forever.  I know the banks are sitting on trillions in losses, and in a sense ... they’re insolvent.

Just to be specific…

They are cheaper than renting AFTER putting 20% down, right?  That’s a lot of money to have parked in a house right now.

As long as this goes on, I see renters (on average, all other things being equal) accruing greater wealth than homeowners.

Chuck

I think what IR was saying there is that when the house is auctioned off, that in itself is not counted on comps.  It is when (or if) that goes back out into the MLS market that the comps will kick in.  So, if a foreclosure is auctioned off at $100K for a $200K MV home, it is not counted into comps.  But when the person (i.e. flipper) that bought it for $100K resells it on MLS for $150K, then the comp will now slip to $150K.

So foreclosures DO bring prices down IF it is listed and bought on MLS.  But if auctioned, only when it is brought BACK into MLS.  So if anything, IR is dragging prices further down, at least until demand market value equals supply market value.

“OMG… IR is an FCB!”

Yes, in Las Vegas I am an FCB supporting prices.

Foreclosures do bring down prices. Auction resales generally sell for a discount to current comps, but not a very large discount. The discounts on short sales or GSE REOs are much deeper than any flipper would give. If it were up to the flippers to dispose of all the properties, the decline would be long and slow without air pockets. When the banks start releasing short sales and REO, they drop the market in 10% to 15% increments.

In the contex of banks holding up foreclosures I think the thought process is that opening the flood gates will cause prices to naturally adjust lower just from a supply and demand effect.  Significant more inventory on the same demand equals lower prices.  Not because each individual foreclosure is reselling for large discounts under comps, like what may be happening with short sales.  More of a gradual effect because of increased supply.

13 Spring Buck might other problems, according to the Redfin agent comments:

“Water stains on ceiling in many rooms.”

And if I’m not mistaken, the 2nd floor is an addition so there might be some issues there too. And since these are cottage style-homes, these don’t really fall into what I define as a traditional 4/3 SFR (need that driveway too!).

Shevy just recently posted about some other more traditional WBridge homes going for more than comps so there a both sides to this coin.

I agree that it is a proven comp killer, but we should note that 9 Spring Buck was paid for in cash, which can explain the lower pricing.  I can imagine agents telling their buyers “but it was paid for in cash…. yadda yadda”

And 13 Spring Buck… wow… big drops there.

Hmm, apparently that’s not it. Does anyone know the HTML tag for embedding links in posts on this site?

-Darth

There’s a really great park, Sweet Shade Park, near those new units. Had my son’s birthday party there last weekend. Convenient to shopping and cheap gas and cheap hot dogs (Costco) as well as good freeway access (261 & 405) without being too close to the 261 or the RR crossing like some of the parts of Columbus Grove down past Edinger. I don’t buy into the scaremongering about toxic waste on the old base, so all-in-all, I like this part of Columbus Grove. I wouldn’t touch them for another 10 years because of the Mello-Roos, but nice location.

-Darth

In one of those projects, Augusta (I think it was called Astoria in a former life), the Plan 3 has a 3CWG, but unlike Astoria, there is no utilization of the space above the garage so it’s smaller. Plan 1 is even weirder, detached 2-car garage… why? That will be great when it rains… but I guess since that only happens 3 days a year in SoCal, they weren’t worried about it.

And these are alley-access homes, so no driveways.

I think unless they price these really low, they are going to be slow to move just like before.

these are great if you dont mind the smell of garbage lofting in the air!! Oh ant the views of the high tension lines and of course Jamboree HWY!

It is not accurate.  I’m not certain but it seems to include those that are Pending.  I don’t have a way to filter those out so we may stop updating it until we find another source.