Irvine Housing Blog

“Nevada job market plummets from first to worst”

It’s quite possible that it’s going to be even worse.

I agree…I have friends with stable family + jobs in the area (healthcare) who are saving $300+/mo on their $150k 4bd/3ba foreclosure vs. renting. They were FHA buyers and were getting bumped by cash investors the entire way…this was the 19th property they put a bid on.

As an investor, not only are you doing well with cash flow, you can potentially retire here as those on fixed incomes will do better due to the lack of income tax. Kind of an extra “bonus” in 20 years or so.

I dunno, a four hour drive away and icky Las Vegas?  Risk vs. Reward does not sound all that great.

I would be very careful.  There is still excess supply, so renters may not be readily available, and that will also put downward pressure on rents.  Plus with buying so attractive, why would people rent?  The recently foreclosed?  Is that the best group to count on?

Similar conditions exist in So Fla, and I am still hesitant to say that is a great investment.

Gaming can come back, but homebuilding there won’t, at least not for a long time.  The impact that will have on employment and housing demand needs to be factored in.

LV’s metro unemployment rate is worse than Detroit:
http://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm

I’ll echo the concerns on gaming coming back - I have to think that alot of the HELOC withdrawals profiled here daily fueled splurges at the Bellagio and those just aren’t going to come back.  I can see some stabilization and maybe modest recovery from where we are now, but don’t think we will get back to say 2007 peak levels anytime soon.  Finally, at least here in the East Coast you are seeing more capacity come on line eg Pennsylvania recently allowed table games and some NY Racino’s aren’t far behind.  I can only see more not less competition for Vegas.

Buy Las Vegas Real Estate

Well, I’ve been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that’s the stupidest thing I ever heard come from the IHB.

Well maybe not the stupidest, however there is plenty of downside as mentioned in the astute observations above. I hear many stories of qualified people looking to buy but getting shut out because of the all-cash investors. Is this really happening on a widespread basis for desirable houses, or is this just anecdotal evidence?

I have to go to Bakersfield once in awhile and always wondered how such a large city can exist in middle of nowhere.  They have oil and I see farming too, but still the city is so huge I wonder every time I’m there.

I agree Vegas will bounce back.  It’s still fun to spend a weekend there.

Seems like a great deal if you can make the numbers workout.

Larry,

Thank you so much for the valuable work that you’ve done. I’m wondering if you are able to give an update on how the venture is going with your brokerage and/or with your foreclosure fund? I think alot of people question your motives now because they don’t know if your being successful or not. Can you tell us some statistics on how many homes your selling or something?

I think it would be normal for a business to advertise like that, and even though your the “un-Realtor” you still need to advertise. When I can afford it, I’ll definitley be looking for you.

Is the rental market strong enough in Las Vegas to ensure enough positive cashflow to make the investment worth it?

If it’s better to own than rent, why would people rent your property?

Seems a bit self-defeating to me because the cheap prices will either:

a. Dry up the rental pool.
b. Drive rental prices low enough so that cash flow isn’t too much of a benefit.

I would buy out there as a “vacation” home but I don’t know if I would want to be a Desert Land Baron / Overlord.

Room in Vegas, Sun/Mon, best price:  300 bucks per weekend.

House in Vegas, 900 a month including taxes and utilities.

Hmm… you don’t need to rent the house to a live in buyer, simply compete with the casinos. 

Vacation House in Vegas.  3B/2BA,  Maximum occupancy 6.  10% more for added guest up to 10.

3 day weekend rental:  Fri, Sat, Sun, 200 bucks + cleaning deposit, 100 bucks. 

Easter week: 1300 bucks + cleaning deposit 400 bucks. 

Christmas/New Year week: 1500 bucks + cleaning deposit 300 bucks.

BINGO….  Put a one arm bandit in the bathrooms too.

Did someone hack into your account again?

IR,

When even the crowd of real estate bears on your own blog are against you on the state of Vegas, you know that sentiment is at its worst and the bottom is in for Vegas.

Did anyone else see this:

[url=“http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise-from-obama/”]
An August Surprise from Obama?[/url]

Main Street may be about to get its own gigantic bailout. Rumors are running wild from Washington to Wall Street that the Obama administration is about to order government-controlled lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to forgive a portion of the mortgage debt of millions of Americans who owe more than what their homes are worth. An estimated 15 million U.S. mortgages – one in five – are underwater with negative equity of some $800 billion. Recall that on Christmas Eve 2009, the Treasury Department waived a $400 billion limit on financial assistance to Fannie and Freddie, pledging unlimited help. The actual vehicle for the bailout could be the Bush-era Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, a sister program to Obama’s loan modification effort. HARP was just extended through June 30, 2011.

WHERE’S MY FREE MONEY!?!?!?!?

I’m upside-down on my student loans; the knowledge I gained is worth less than my loan balance. BAIL ME OUT!

After reading a bunch of different articles on Vegas, my belief is unemployment there will be ongoing for years.  They built up that place with bubble year spending assumptions.  It’s true there are a lot of visitors still (similar numbers to bubble times even), but the amount of money being spent is much, much lower.  You hear it all the time from taxi drivers, strippers, bartenders, etc.

If rental housing stock continues increasing (all indications are a yes) and the unemployment picture does not improve or gets worse causing people to move away, the risk of rents going much lower seems to go up dramatically.  And don’t forget, time is ticking quickly on the 99 week unemployment benefit train.  It’s one thing to squat rent free in a foreclosure to-be, but another when one has to pay rent.  These are all substantial downward forces on rental prices.  I know traditionally rents are pretty stable, but there is no law that says rents cannot go down significantly.  God did not say rents may not go down!

I think what a lot of us are saying is you can’t assume that rents will remain stable, so that risk has to be priced in somewhere or, at the very minimum, highlighted.

IrvineRenter -

You aren’t moonlighting over at CNN Money these days are you?

Vulture Investors - They’re Back

Common sense says that it’s smart to buy a house in an area that will get better, not worse.  Vegas is going down hill.  Deflation is real in Vegas and will continue as it has in Detroit.
The fact that monthly payments have been taking a nose dive in Vegas for over a decade should convince you to do the exact opposite of what you are concluding.  Vegas has already been in full fledge deflation mode until finally the land there is worthless.

I dunno about Vegas. It’s a single-industry town, and that single industry is uniquely vulnerable to rising energy prices. If world oil production has truly peaked, then, barring billions in high-speed rail investment to run lines from Vegas to two or more elements in the set {San Francisco, Los Angeles, Denver, Salt Lake City, Seattle} I don’t see how the gambling-shows-hookers industry can stabilize.

I don’t feel like investing in anything which is entirely dependent on customers physically travelling an average of 1000 miles, when much of what Vegas sells is available at casinos and street corners closer to people’s homes.

At least Riverside (barf!) and Bakersfield (gak!) are each home to several industries, and are close to a large metropolis.

If I felt that gasoline and jet fuel prices would stay where they are for the next 15 years, I’d be open to the idea of Las Vegas real estate.

Good luck to you Vegas investors. You might be right.

From my experience, I would not want to live 4 hours from rental property that I owned, unless I was willing to pay a management company to take care of everything.  My guess is that the management expenses will eat up any potential cash flow.

Interesting to know. With interest rates as low as it is you could probably buy Las Vegas Homes with 15 year mortgages, 20% down, and still cash flow using properties as rentals.

From Strategic point of view on macro term basis, Las Vegas may not be the choise of gambling for gambers globally.

WYNN, LVS saw the slowdown in US Spending and opened casinos in Macao which are doing much better, this has almost wiped out that foreign capital and travel from wealthy asians who used to come to Vegas for gambling and prostitution enjoyments.

Job growth and casnios will continue to deteoriate in US while Asia takes control. The Vegas game is over for good, dont get caught into RE investing there, always look at macro implications of what happened and what could potentially happpen.

I fell in love with Vegas a long time ago when vacationing there. I’m seriously considering investing in a condo soon, I’ve heard great things about the Trump Condos and i thinking Vegas is on the rise again, i think now is a great time to invest in some real estate there.