Irvine Housing Blog

a greater fool here:

28 Danbury Ln, Irvine, CA 92618
06/15/2007: $682,000
01/09/2004: $518,000
05/27/2003: $485,000
——-

I imagine these other sellers wish there were more of them to go around.

Another link

CDO Losses May Be $52 Billion, Credit Suisse Says (Update2) 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGQqNEmAo8Mk&refer=home

600k for 1200 sq ft!

That’s so 2005!

Have fun making that payment….and paying 7500 per year in property taxes to start with.

A life of debt servitude for an asset that is currently declining in value!

IrvineRenter,

Three exclamations?  I believe it is some kind of Realtor Fung Shui.  The power of the realtor trinity is not to be underestimated.  Take, for example, the old saw : Location, Location, Location.  A realtor will say these are the three most important things in Real Estate (of course if I say that is one important thing three time they will look at me with a blank stare).  So the three exclamation points signify the Trinity of Real Estate. 

Isn’t it obvious?

The one ad said “Light and Bright.” That’s all it takes to sway me.

the Trinity of Real Estate.

LOL!

“Subprime defaults are ``clearly a huge problem’’ for investors in collateralized debt obligations, Credit Suisse analysts led by Ivan Vatchkov in London wrote in a report. ``But we do not think that they are a systemic one.’’”

Not a systemic problem? I call BS on that one. It is all about the loans which is a systemic problem.

$52 billiion? LMAO

Executives at New York-based S&P, Moody’s and Fitch say they are waiting until foreclosure sales show that the collateral backing the bonds has declined enough to create losses before lowering ratings on some of the $6.65 trillion in outstanding mortgage-backed debt.

I see.  Total losses will be less than 8% on bonds which can’t be sold for 50 cents on the dollar.

Pigs with lipstick.

http://www.prudentbear.com/articles/show/2054

“Three exclamations? I believe it is some kind of Realtor Fung Shui”

RIOT !!!  !!!    !!!    !!!    Hey, I just realized…when I type 1 exclamation point, two more auto-add !  lol.

Where’s NIR ?  Surely she can confirm or debunk the Feng Shui possibility….

Chicken real estate, ooooh, time to get the popcorn, should be a fun one to watch.

Great Finds!!!  (You Like My Trinity Of Real Estate?!?!?!)

it’s hard to even type like that.

Re: Realtor for 56 Danbury

I didn’t see any spelling mistakes in the description!

Must be one of those flukes - you place 5,000 monkeys with 5,000 typewriters and eventually Hamlet comes out.

That deserves a “WOW!!”

‘Robert Rodriquez, chief executive officer of First Pacific Advisors, was even more blunt. “We haven’t seen much of a problem in the subprime area [but only] because the pricing is a fraud; the ratings are bullshit,” said the two-time recipient of Morningstar’s Fund Manager of the Year…’

Another interesting link

U.S. Rebound May Be Bumpier Than Fed Expects as Credit Tightens
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6C26XqucNwI&refer=home

Mortgage Mess Shines Light on Brokers’ Role

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/mortgages/20070706-simon.html

Fun gizmo to graph various housing inventories across the US

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash07.html?project=housingInv07-0705&h=540&w=750&hasAd=1

Great article explaining credit spreads and the effects of tightening. Thank you.

since we hopped on the subject of CDO’s (mortgage-backed securities) let shed a little light on how far up sh*t’s creek we are.  I’ve posted comments about this on doc housing bubbles sight as well.

The mini (yes it is mini in light of things to come) land slide that has occurred recently was heavily weighted with subprime loans.  These traunches of the CDO are known in advance to be risky, so while the defaults make investors skittish and enforce margin calls, none of this was truly unforseen.

The hideous monster is the high risk prime paper that is masquerading as high quality/low risk in the equity traunche.  The 80/20’s, the high LTV neg am loans, are grouped together with the prime 30 year fixed/10 year interest only, etc..  The people that stand to lose the most are the prime borrowers that maxed out or bought with no money down.  Simple economics of supply and demand, GDP and job growth, and rising rates will bring values down. Subprime sludge will only facilitate a further slide in prices.

I can tell from first hand experience that high risk loans, as far as LTV is concerned, are still being originated.  Neg ams are still being originated.  These loans are not going to recast/adjust until 2008,2009,2010, and beyond.  When this happens, all hell is going to break loose on wall street, and john q public, who doesn’t even know what neg am means, is going to see his pension plan evaporate.

“What started as a financing squeeze in the subprime- mortgage market now threatens other parts of the economy. “

No…How can this be?  What a surprise!!!

That’s a good point.  The pension plan.  Now, I know someone who’s reading this that is quackin’ in his boots…. but I’ve always believed in 401Ks and SEP-IRAs.. pension plans are nice but you little control of how they’re invested.

What I can’t understand is why a banker would lend high risk on the face of declining RE prices. 

I think that’s ridiculous.  If money is so cheap still, then heck I might as well borrow a couple of MIL and invest it in CSCO.  I think that’s a lot less risky in this environment….

At what point do you see this crazyness stopping?  Why is Wall Street still priming the pump?

If I am not mistaken, shortly after the the first dramatic drop of the market during the crash of 1929, a group of our largest bankers and financiers on Wall Street tried to prop up the market and instill confidence in the institution. They went out and bought a lot of stock and ended up being bagholders as the Great Depression was just getting underway. Is history repeating itself?

Because they can still sell the mortgages.  Because spreads are still narrow enough and the yen is still so cheap that there is still a market for MBSs and CDOs.  It is slowing, but there is still a market.

On a semi-related note.

I have a couple year lease on a home in Oak Creek in the tract east of Danbury. I make notes whenever I see a rental. 57 Danbury is a 2 br/2.5 bath/loft that was listed for $2,200 a month last year.

I swear one of the Danbury’s address is a REO from a bank on the east coast (it might even be 57.)

Hey guys… I actually lived at 62 Danbury lane for about a year starting in early 2004. Funny story actually. I moved from Oregon to be with my gf (at the time) and she just bought this home in late 2003. It is the same floor as 50 Danbury lane. She was making pretty good money at the time as a Loan Processor. She was way in over her head when she bought this home. During my stay there, the mortgage industry started to slow down and she was starting to worry. Not to mention she just bought a brand new BMW M3! Well to get right to the point, she ended up cheating on me (thank god) and I moved out. Two years later, I was browsing around zipreality and found her home on the market, bank owned! I guess the bitter side of me was happy to see that. What goes around comes around. She was the perfect example of the greater fools who get themselves in heaps of trouble buying when they probably shouldn’t be buying and also having a semi expensive lifestyle. Her house did appreciate quite a bit from the purchase price of $450,000 so she was basically living off the appreciation for a while. I don’t know what she was thinking of buying a brand new M3 on top of a $3,000 mortgage payment! Dummy….