Irvine Housing Blog

This house is close to where I live.  It is in a good location, no neighbors to the right, and a park behind it.  A bit of a negative is it is “outside the loop,“ which isn’t quite as desirable.

Also, the grainy picture may be intentional.  It makes it look better than it does in person.  The outside in person appears very “80s” and outdated.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the new buyer completely redoes the landscaping.

The price still seems a bit high to me.  It is not very big house, 1800 or so sq feet.  IMO, this one will go down into the 500,000s before this bubble burst is done.

I don’t think the convenience of a website that may or may not have incorrect data is as important as the value recorded on the deed and reported to the county.

Hanlon’s razor and all that.

He’s not running at all.

The idea is that the Democrats will stage a Coup d’etat if Clinton IS NOT elected.

My sources tell me that the GOP is seemingly planning to do the same if Giuliani IS NOT elected or if Clinton IS elected.

No need for tanks.  The US Central Command will simply detour the telephone switching board at the White House to an undisclosed exchange south of Santander.  Henceforth all calls to the White House will answered with a friendly:

“Hola, buenos dios, La Casa Blanca.  May I help you?“

Meanwhile the US Secret Service will move the “elected” president to an underground location in Nevada where they will be hooked up via a “Matrix” like connection to a virtual world.  The elected presidente will live in a Clinton like world of pleasure and “what me worry”.  After eight years that president will come out satisfied and happy that she/he did not have to deal with reality.

Works for me.

Good to hear about the Peugeot.  Pretty crappy things.  Even our old Deux Chevaux was high maintenance even if it had few parts to break, but of course it was a Citroen which in many ways it’s ‘tres bon” than the Peugeot.

Qu’est que c’est a gallong?  Is that french bong? 

And how can you say that inflation will reduce the cost for the middle class?  I personally wouldn’t mind inflation if I got 12% a year raises and my 401K grew at 17% a year, but what we got here is a wholesale devaluation of the dollar so the french can buy us out while our incomes are not going up….

Merde!

Well, I hate the name, but love the policies. Is he running as an independent? I might have to change my vote. Maybe if he changes his name to just Frank he could garner more media attention.

For those unfamiliar with the metric system 1 Gallong = 6.28 U.S. Gallons.

While I agree that President Bush’s economic policies will reduce the cost of living for middle class Americans, I’m a little bit more realistic than Tonye. Gas will be $6 a Gallong before our greatest president leaves office.

Also, I don’t live in an apartment. I live in a van down by the river and I would never buy a Peugeot.

Generalisimo Franco for Presidente 2008.

He will pocket veto ALL new tax increases. 
He will save us money because we can put the White House in monthballs.
King Juan Carlos will make sure that someone dusts the sarcophagus weekly… at no cost to the US Taxpayer.

The best politician is no politican.  Next best thing is a long dead Roman Catholic politician with a strong anti communist and pro capitalist bias.

Generalisimo Franco will not sign for the continuance of Commie China as preferred trading partner.

Franco for El Presidente, 2008.

Sometimes we need The Spanish Inquisition.

I’ll buy the bathrooms.  That way I can rent them out by the half hour.

Kirk, the Fed is doing your work. 

This home soon will be worth a million bucks for sure, but a gallong of gas will be $5, the Euro will be worth two bucks, a bottle of NV Veuve Cliquot will be $60 and the apartment complex you live in will be purchased by a frenchman.

Good luck mon ami.

“All told, Harlem prices rose a whopping 56 percent this year, to a median of $610,000, according to Halstead.“  Yikes.

LOL!

Hmmm, I didn’t mention your handle.  Have you given yourself away, like in a bad mystery novel/tv show?

The numbers you have mentioned above are GRMs for investors looking to get a return on their investment. A breakeven GRM for an owner occupant would be higher. The 160 GRM comes from doing the math on enough properties to see where the breakeven is given current financing conditions.

Hey IR, this is a repost from the Springflower thread. Any info?

I’d understood previously that GRMs in Southern Cal have historically been in the 120-140 range (while in the country as a whole, in the 80-120 range). I’m pretty sure I’ve seen these figures in investment forums, but I can’t recall when or where.

So, IR, where does your 160 GRM figure come from? Is this data available somewhere, for Irvine, Southern Cal, nationwide, etc?

Liz: Just because I support Mike Huckabee for vice president doesn’t mean that I support his liberal view that women should submit to their husbands’ will. Rather, I support God’s command that women should defer to all men. Therefore, I find it highly offensive that you have shown such contempt towards my religious beliefs by directing me to flirt with you.

Buster: They are only a depreciating asset if you look at speculator pricing rather than book value. This is why we need more innovation in the housing market and why it makes sense to apply the techniques of stable value investment funds to individual houses.

Excuse me, but no one is talking about a bailout. We are, however, demanding that Ginnie Mae take action via open market transactions whereby they would purchase all mortgage backed securities or raw mortgages at book value. How this simple market transaction got translated into “bailout” is beyond me.

I think people see and feel what is coming, but are afraid to know and own the truth of the economic nightmare that is setting up.

Best not to look down.

It’s not easy to be middle-aged in an industry (financial) that has tens of thousands of redundant people in it, and is due for massive contraction, even if you aren’t upside down in some overpriced house.

At times like these, you have to square with the reality of the situation but if you stare too hard at it, you are in danger of losing your nerve (and wits) completely, at the time you need them the most.

Kirk - If you don’t think that OC Real Estate (or any residential real estate) is a QUICKLY depreciating asset, you’re doomed.  Well, I guess you could be right.  For many, many, many millions of people who purchased in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 with toxic loans, real estate is NOT a depreciating asset.  It is an accelerating liability, so technically you are right.

But I guess I could be wrong (along with those other Commies, Bloomberg, MSNBC, CNN, Wall Street Journal, NY Times—OK, they are commies—and everybody else except those in dreamland.)  That leaves you and the NAR as the only sane ones, I guess. 

Oh, by the way, I’m an Irvine owner, not a renter.  But I’m a realist and haven’t drank the happy punch.  I know the value of my home is dropping and dropping fast, and will continue to drop for at least two more years.  But then, I view it as a home, not an “investment” or an “asset,“ so I guess I just don’t really care that much since I’m not selling anytime in the foreseeable future.  I also realize a rented place is just as much a “home” as is mine, except it’s not falling in value.  Kind of wish I were a renter right now….

Kirk,

Glad to see our pet troll back.

Your humorous post highlights the irony of Republican Corporatist notions of what constitutes a “free” market.

They mean “free” only as long as things are reliably up for them.

The minute things go against them, they turn into flaming Marxists and ask for govm’t assistance in bailing them out so they can go on to the next greed-driven rampage.

“I am smarter and better looking!“

Don’t forget more humble, too.

Given that the Guberment appointed Joe Kennedy to establish the SEC, we expect them to appoint either Robert Kiyosaki or Donald Trump to head any Real Estate oversight.

Wonderfully written IR and very sensible.  Personally I like to call people on it when they appear to be FOS.  Sometimes in doing so, I learn something new and hopefully other people here do as well… 

Outside of the entertainment value, I find this blog to be a good learning tool and recommend it to people who are desirous of an education about the workings of real estate.

I run a daily search on homeseekers.com so I see when the status of the listing has been updated.  If it’s flipped to contingent / accepting backup offers, that’s how you can tell it went into escrow.  Some homes that go into escrow don’t accept backups, but that is rare.

yes. ipo. I, too, would like to see the final sale prices on those. Where do you get the info that they went into escrow?

Lawyerliz, I am offended that I am being lumped in with the boring and repititious [sic]! BTW, I thought lawyers knew how to spell…

I assure you IPOPlaya is not me (I am smarter and better looking!).  Though I do find IPOPlaya appears to share many of my views, and that those views tend to focus less on the blog mantra of total housing meltdown.  IPO, also backs his claims with hard numbers and examples (I can see why he would be confused with me).

After the market crash which facilitated the Great Depression, Congress created the SEC, and the securities industry has been heavily regulated in ever since. The Realtors make up their own rules, publish their own data, and answer to no one. I suspect the unwinding of the Great Housing Bubble will change all of that. Realtors may see their ability to lie severely curtailed.

I rather enjoy Kirk’s visits. He is a well-practiced blog troll and generally amusing. Sometimes he drops being a troll and really adds to the conversation.

25w100k,

If I have to start interpreting what is racist, I will spend all day censuring posts. If someone is making racist remarks, their ignorance will shine a bright light on them. Plus, I don’t censure ideas. Even bad ones.

As for lying, the comments are self-policing. A lie will be called out as such. Also, I don’t want to become the arbiter of truth.

Telling someone they are full of shit adds nothing to the conversation. If you can demonstrate they are full of shit, please do so, but stating it without offering proof is just defamatory. I don’t tolerate name calling or negative characterizations. It serves no purpose.

I don’t know if all those people are the same people or different people, but after the first reading I found their comments to be extremely boring and repititious.

Kirk is. . .Kirk.  I am trying not to feed him, but he’s so weird that he’s not boring.

Wow, the dishonesty is truly amazing.  Any prosecutors out there?

Flirt with me all you want.

Sometimes Kirk actually says something that might be a joke, or sarcasm or an actual point.

I’m told Trolls just want to get a rise out of people.  I fell for it when I was a Newbie. 

Since he does have an occasional idea in there, it is tempting to respond.

Zornundo: Is socialism not based on rules? You are playing with semantics.

Liz: I’m married. It is inappropriate for you to flirt with me.

I agree that leasing a car is a smart move since it is a depreciating asset as you say. That is why I also lease my furniture and appliances. However, a house is not really a depreciating asset as you say. This false perception is why I am trying to get the insurance company I work for to start offering a new SIC (Synthetic Investment Contract) product that would encapsulate a homeowner’s house and ensure that they can use book value in their accounting. This would allow distressed homeowners to refinance their house when they otherwise wouldn’t be able to. Perhaps rather than trying to destroy America, you people could follow my lead and actually try to help people.

2 Chronicles 1:1 - Solomon son of David established himself firmly over his kingdom, for the LORD his God was with him and made him exceedingly great.

And how did God make him exceedingly great?

2 Chronicles 9:22 - King Solomon was greater in riches than all the other kings of the earth.

So, doesn’t it make sense that God wants markets to rise in the most Christian nation the world has ever known? God gave His children the freedom to choose right from wrong. He does not make that decision for us. As far as that “someone” you are talking about… is his name Beelzebub?

Tim was murdered June of 2001. I think it is distasteful to make light of such things.

IrvineRenter: I have. Repeatedly. I’ll try again after I figure out how to get around the restraining order.

Shiny: Your comment is completely disingenuous. You know very well that oranges are too acidic for many people to consume, including myself, and exchanging my apples for your oranges would impoverish me while you reap with riches of apples. Just as apples are a more important commodity than oranges, houses are a more important commodity than all food products.

Mike: Yes, but for $944k it would be fairly priced.

Chris: Hello.

For those of you that might not have seen the “welders mask” shiny refers to, here it is:

http://www.facevisor.com/#mid

Heard of them called Vader Visors as well…

Apparently racism and lying are tolerated here, yet a common but slightly crude colloquialism isn’t….

Alan, it appears that from 2006 to 2007 was the largest year-over-year growth (2.2%) in the CA labor force since the tech boom in ‘99-00 (2.7%).  Is that growth from homegrown / resident labor that is just entering the workforce for the first time?  Unemployment appears to be trending up, but not from loss of jobs, but rather a large increase in labor force relative to job creation in the state. 

Year Period labor force employment unemployment unemployment rate
1997 Jan 15615814 14533517 1082297 6.9
1997 Feb 15644141 14589302 1054839 6.7
1997 Mar 15681797 14645197 1036600 6.6
1997 Apr 15729391 14704851 1024540 6.5
1997 May 15739601 14735924 1003677 6.4
1997 Jun 15765897 14760895 1005002 6.4
1997 Jul 15798342 14803441 994901 6.3
1997 Aug 15847437 14853834 993603 6.3
1997 Sep 15871956 14878697 993259 6.3
1997 Oct 15897117 14909247 987870 6.2
1997 Nov 15921163 14944352 976811 6.1
1997 Dec 15997782 15010240 987542 6.2
1998 Jan 16024896 15045031 979865 6.1
1998 Feb 16051144 15074180 976964 6.1
1998 Mar 16078835 15106676 972159 6.0
1998 Apr 16094570 15125534 969036 6.0
1998 May 16122843 15159799 963044 6.0
1998 Jun 16144376 15188152 956224 5.9
1998 Jul 16192516 15239196 953320 5.9
1998 Aug 16211407 15249857 961550 5.9
1998 Sep 16261056 15293092 967964 6.0
1998 Oct 16251042 15295580 955462 5.9
1998 Nov 16281467 15332327 949140 5.8
1998 Dec 16288794 15334894 953900 5.9
1999 Jan 16279950 15347265 932685 5.7
1999 Feb 16299401 15379777 919624 5.6
1999 Mar 16333481 15426556 906925 5.6
1999 Apr 16354285 15465595 888690 5.4
1999 May 16360719 15507001 853718 5.2
1999 Jun 16395887 15543311 852576 5.2
1999 Jul 16447454 15604282 843172 5.1
1999 Aug 16466811 15633333 833478 5.1
1999 Sep 16503069 15673916 829153 5.0
1999 Oct 16537730 15711110 826620 5.0
1999 Nov 16557600 15728191 829409 5.0
1999 Dec 16630580 15782468 848112 5.1
2000 Jan 16657832 15820260 837572 5.0
2000 Feb 16687343 15850703 836640 5.0
2000 Mar 16713466 15867416 846050 5.1
2000 Apr 16766338 15925516 840822 5.0
2000 May 16816478 15963728 852750 5.1
2000 Jun 16863412 16014376 849036 5.0
2000 Jul 16867908 16026527 841381 5.0
2000 Aug 16926413 16090114 836299 4.9
2000 Sep 16958337 16137573 820764 4.8
2000 Oct 16973782 16159434 814348 4.8
2000 Nov 17006495 16193841 812654 4.8
2000 Dec 17053133 16242603 810530 4.8
2001 Jan 17062158 16255726 806432 4.7
2001 Feb 17068945 16261779 807166 4.7
2001 Mar 17108181 16277934 830247 4.9
2001 Apr 17120753 16266678 854075 5.0
2001 May 17123308 16246446 876862 5.1
2001 Jun 17139906 16231552 908354 5.3
2001 Jul 17138757 16210283 928474 5.4
2001 Aug 17165106 16199791 965315 5.6
2001 Sep 17180876 16189735 991141 5.8
2001 Oct 17217616 16177982 1039634 6.0
2001 Nov 17249726 16169549 1080177 6.3
2001 Dec 17249940 16152946 1096994 6.4
2002 Jan 17284520 16162020 1122500 6.5
2002 Feb 17325568 16187645 1137923 6.6
2002 Mar 17334797 16174604 1160193 6.7
2002 Apr 17336071 16169203 1166868 6.7
2002 May 17327523 16168936 1158587 6.7
2002 Jun 17339876 16165429 1174447 6.8
2002 Jul 17342717 16175268 1167449 6.7
2002 Aug 17321630 16160641 1160989 6.7
2002 Sep 17347198 16181280 1165918 6.7
2002 Oct 17373671 16202399 1171272 6.7
2002 Nov 17398847 16218353 1180494 6.8
2002 Dec 17390537 16203813 1186724 6.8
2003 Jan 17402030 16207627 1194403 6.9
2003 Feb 17407541 16214190 1193351 6.9
2003 Mar 17411915 16222858 1189057 6.8
2003 Apr 17412330 16207896 1204434 6.9
2003 May 17402280 16203976 1198304 6.9
2003 Jun 17425043 16223159 1201884 6.9
2003 Jul 17418021 16214772 1203249 6.9
2003 Aug 17401174 16209302 1191872 6.8
2003 Sep 17414337 16230320 1184017 6.8
2003 Oct 17453388 16256355 1197033 6.9
2003 Nov 17431083 16253453 1177630 6.8
2003 Dec 17445635 16279937 1165698 6.7
2004 Jan 17463567 16316506 1147061 6.6
2004 Feb 17470202 16336453 1133749 6.5
2004 Mar 17477583 16342137 1135446 6.5
2004 Apr 17487775 16367408 1120367 6.4
2004 May 17507296 16393167 1114129 6.4
2004 Jun 17532270 16422484 1109786 6.3
2004 Jul 17551366 16460690 1090676 6.2
2004 Aug 17543814 16475308 1068506 6.1
2004 Sep 17571962 16503108 1068854 6.1
2004 Oct 17608532 16551701 1056831 6.0
2004 Nov 17627655 16578953 1048702 5.9
2004 Dec 17622786 16585565 1037221 5.9
2005 Jan 17644181 16608355 1035826 5.9
2005 Feb 17656974 16657098 999876 5.7
2005 Mar 17658020 16678930 979090 5.5
2005 Apr 17698440 16725806 972634 5.5
2005 May 17716476 16746315 970161 5.5
2005 Jun 17738078 16770959 967119 5.5
2005 Jul 17747001 16802019 944982 5.3
2005 Aug 17787588 16845457 942131 5.3
2005 Sep 17789301 16857046 932255 5.2
2005 Oct 17801343 16870232 931111 5.2
2005 Nov 17805869 16892382 913487 5.1
2005 Dec 17841283 16932526 908757 5.1
2006 Jan 17824475 16923341 901134 5.1
2006 Feb 17809834 16933763 876071 4.9
2006 Mar 17841891 16968517 873374 4.9
2006 Apr 17865102 16971744 893358 5.0
2006 May 17885285 17006195 879090 4.9
2006 Jun 17891060 17020673 870387 4.9
2006 Jul 17905841 17044261 861580 4.8
2006 Aug 17897786 17028146 869640 4.9
2006 Sep 17942138 17074688 867450 4.8
2006 Oct 17964891 17109383 855508 4.8
2006 Nov 17982376 17129983 852393 4.7
2006 Dec 18011807 17140986 870821 4.8
2007 Jan 18084615 17207903 876712 4.8
2007 Feb 18069232 17195121 874111 4.8
2007 Mar 18134180 17258654 875526 4.8
2007 Apr 18142650 17208731 933919 5.1
2007 May 18170330 17226621 943709 5.2
2007 Jun 18180399 17238299 942100 5.2
2007 Jul 18198045 17237629 960416 5.3
2007 Aug 18214226 17218100 996126 5.5
2007 Sep 18309534 17280182 1029352 5.6
2007 Oct 18240867 17218849 1022018 5.6
2007 Nov 18377967 17339652 1038315 5.6

Oops!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=arxIQBBzGSm4&refer=us

Oops!
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN0321771220080103

It’s just a few subprime mortgages.
It’s just a subprime problem.  It is “contained” to subprime.
It’s just a mortgage problem.
It’s just a financial institution problem.  The rest of the economy is strong.
It’s limited to credit cards and mortgages.  The credit market is stabilizing.  Corporate balance sheets are strong and there will be no problem with corporate bonds.  The credit squeeze is an overeaction and is fear based, not reality based.
Oops!
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/01/03/citi-and-jp-morgan-predict-a-buffet-of-defaults/

At least the departures will help keep the unemployment rate down…  Babies don’t rent, but they don’t work either.

I’m actually Alan and AZ as well.  I like to argue with myself…

Yeah, there’s the welders mask comment and the repeated references to immigrant this and immigrant that and immigrants don’t do yard work in your comments Something about a billion chinese too, etc. etc. 

Like I said, racist (or at least nationalistic) undertones…  Loved the reference to people making $100K per year as “the unwashed” as well.  Was surprised that didn’t get more run here.  I don’t really even know what that is.  Elitist?

You’re looking like a real gem reverend, from your blog posts one could infer you are a racist, elitist, sexist materialist.  Got the last one mostly from the “blinged” out lux SUV you are so proud of.  You might get a chuckle out of this:

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=escalade

“I don’t know about you guys but ipoplaya sounds a lot like CapitalismWorks.“

I was referring to Kirk while attempting not to feed him, but OK…

“And we know that surgeons and law partners have plenty of time on their hands to engage in petty arguments over average rents on the bubble blogs!“

Interesting observation, zoiks.

ipop:  being 80’s Irvine is a plus for West Park.  They still had plenty of the ranch to develop then so they built large homes on sizable lots.  You don’t get that in the post-industrial Irvine (Columbus, Woodbury, ad nauseum).

“...I find some libertarian troll channeling a sorry imitation of the ghost of Ayn Rand…“

I don’t know about you guys but ipoplaya sounds a lot like CapitalismWorks.

“And I find some other guy who doesn’t understand that repeatedly telling people how much he makes in pseudo-anonymous comments on a blog is the epitome of insecurity (and in all likelihood, fabrication).“

Yeah, I think it’s in pretty bad taste. shiny has mentioned his alleged salary numerous times. It puts him in the surgeon/law partner category of salaries. And we know that surgeons and law partners have plenty of time on their hands to engage in petty arguments over average rents on the bubble blogs!

There’s something comical about all that.

ipop:  how is it racist to be rather amused when you spot somebody wearing a welders mask to drive around Irvine, with the mask-wearer doing so in the belief that it will keep their skin as white as possible. 

if any thing, such (very) foreign behavior is racist:  it represents a “white is beautiful” mindset.  On the contrary, I am very much a product of OC, I have visited the Bare Tan salon at Michelson/Jamboree many times: the (Aussie?) owner is very savvy, hires smoking hot chicks to work the counter so dirty old men like me can get their leer on.  I believe a number of the customers must also be dancers or don’t mind being mistaken for such.  And they are all uniformly tanned as well, good advertising.  Remind me to save my coin to buy a tanning salon, beats the housing bubble by a mile.

In the words of Purplehaze, “I see stupid people.“

Do they all rent middlin’ properties in 80’s Irvine too?

Irvine Renter:  I petition that you sanction this “25w100k+“ He is guilty of a filthy mouth.  Please banish him from this blog. 

with regard to your alleged contradiction, I hang with a well-heeled crowd.  300k ain’t much with those (former) movers and shakers.

(Note from IrvineRenter:

I edited the blog post. I am surprised you didn’t make fun of the misspelled word in the post…)

Tongue-in-cheek comment from Kirk?

If not, hellllooooooo…..............

Did you read the source: 

www.slate.com/id/2181184/nav/tap3

“This particular home would sell for at least $944k if speculators like you people weren’t driving the market down.“

For a million bucks, this house sucks.

sorry I meant todays post: 3 bed / 3.5 bath, 1900 sq. ft., large deck

you are right, imagine the rental price of yesterdays post if it were in Manhattan and not irvine.

It does not exist in Manhattan, but if it did you would be looking at somewhere between $5K to $10K a month in rent.

Do you think the rich are getting richer?

The MLS does lie. There are recent examples in NPB and LB where brokers are putting the listing price as the sold price, although the sale price is quite a bit below what is shown in the MLS. My only way of knowing this was the shock exhibited by a friend of mine that paid 15% off of asking, and yet the list price was shown as final sales price.

To any serious buyers, go to the OC Clerk Recorder for the real details.
RE will do anything to keep the perception that sales prices are not going down.

Wow.  So I take some time off for the holidays and return to work this week.  It takes me a couple days to catch up on my IHB posts and what do I find?  I find some libertarian troll channeling a sorry imitation of the ghost of Ayn Rand.  And I find some other guy who doesn’t understand that repeatedly telling people how much he makes in pseudo-anonymous comments on a blog is the epitome of insecurity (and in all likelihood, fabrication).  Personally, I thought his nonsense was thoroughly discredited yesterday, but your mileage may vary.

Just like the unplanned neighborhoods outside of Irvine that some of us live in, 1 or 2 nuisance properties can destroy the property values for the rest of us.  Sadly, the “market” for IHB comments has recently corrected a bit since the peak pricing of mid-December 2007.  Please folks, ignore the trolls and let’s get back to the good stuff.

Some recent escrow entries in Irvine and Tustin (since I watch both) for 2200+ sf SFRs:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1332995

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1170085

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1349355

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1085482

Kind of liked this one…  Relo company owned.  Was hoping it dipped into the $900s.  Backed up to a nice greenbelt park area.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=860067

Featured on this blog. 

Shark’s comment at the time - “Its not worth anywhere near 700k right now! Mark this post and check back in 18 months. 525k top, 450k maybe. I mean that’s a half million dollars for this.. c’mon.“ 

My comment back to him - “They could move it for $750K right now if they wanted to. Hell, they could probably move it for $800K right now.  Very recent comps, less some discounting for a falling market, indicate the current market value for a property. YOU may not think it’s worth $700K for YOU, I might not think it’s worth $700K to ME, but those are personal opinions not indicators of market value. Obviously people are buying houses in this area still and paying north of $350 per sf. MLS doesn’t lie.“

Wonder how much it’s in escrow for right now?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1182730

Thank you. I will use that one.

I see stupid people. I see people in this economy whose expectations are so out of whack that even education and economic fundamentals cannot forewarn these people about the economic turmoil that is going to set in this year. I see stupid people..

550k at most. IRVINE WILL BOTTOM OUT AT 200 PER SQFT.

this is not a home for a family making 300k, rather for a family making 150k. 

Easy on the Koolaid. you showing signs of intoxication :mrgreen:

In 1991, the migration signal was that U-Haul had a hard time keeping trucks in the state.

So it seems people are voting with their feet.  Last census data (last months LA times, don’t have the link) did show an exodus of people out of CA with the population only stable because of births.

Since baby’s don’t pay rent, this should put more downward pressure on rental properties.

Read the Black Swan book instead.  it is wonderful.

Kirk is a poor soul.  He went away for a while and he is now back.  Don’t feed him.

Gotta love this image!

At least I won’t have to pay rent any longer, cuz I’m moving back home to my slightly larger single-wide in Putnam County, Tennessee that I paid less than $15k for. And it’s property taxes are only $160/year!

What’s messed up is that my wife and I have nice government jobs (she’s a school teacher, I work for the feds) and our income is waaaay over the median for the county, but if we had the same jobs in Irvine, our incomes, adjusting for Irvine school pay and the increased locality for federal employees, would put us about average. I’ve got a few acres with nice forested land around and awesome views. Now I may not be near the ocean, but that’s ok. Cuz when you have turkey and deer run across your fron and back fields, life is good.

Is the weather worth that much more?

It seems like the rental rates and housing prices are tied more to income levels than anything else. Since the median income in Putnam County is lower than OC, so are rents. And it also helps to have a small state university in town. Those college kids love apartments. Makes for plentiful supply.

(Deleted by blog administrator)  You whine about a 3,000 dollar rent check, and claim to make 300k. 

Yet only a few days ago you were whining about the ‘indignity’ you suffered when all the RE people would make you feel inadaquet about your financial situation.

Something doesn’t add up.

Can I whine about my $421/month apartment in good ol’ Hopkinsville, Kentucky?? I’ll whine! I’ve got base rent of $394 and then they tack on BS charges for trash, admin, and water. Those extras average about $27/month. Waaaa….it’s only got 576 square feet!

Wow, Michigan is in the shitter.  Over 10% of CW’s REOs in that state alone…  I knew Detroit was cratering but it’s going to get so much worse for them.

Countryfried CA foreclosures

Hi Jeff. I lived in an 1890’s Noe Valley victorian/edwardian/stick flat for ten years. “Drafty” homes are not limited to 1940’s Sunset houses, heh. Windows didn’t fit the frames, no insulation, and only one gas heating unit—in the living room.

Check out http://mullinslab2.ucsf.edu/SFrentstats/

It’s a beautiful way to compare rents in SF, or browse Craigslist listings.

(Anyway, San Fran threadjack over. Let’s get back to Irvine.)

Re-read my posts Alan.  Don’t credit me with arguements I did not make. 

I posted the pdf link to refute the notion that a bunch of jobs in OC have already gone away and that this is somehow a current driver to surpress rent prices.  That notion is simply not true.  It may indeed be so in the future, but with a 4% unemployment rate today it’s just not the case.  It is true that we do have a diversified employment base, which does lend itself toward more stability.  No local economy could handle the loss of tens of thousands of jobs without some adjustment… 

I make no real claim as to whether rents will increase or decrease in the future.  I can see it playing out either way.  All depends on the macro-economy IMO, not the real estate bubble deflation.

I’ll have to skip to those pages of Greenspan’s book.  I’ve been reading it, but haven’t gotten that far… I spend entirely too much time watching college football!

SF and Manhatten ain’t OC.

Check out the New York City housing market:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/03/real_estate/manhattan_prices_up/index.htm?postversion=2008010307

Irvine is a land of milk and honey.  It is fair game to complain about housing prices.  Complaining about rent in Irvine is just senseless whining.

“an” IHB lurker

Hello, I’m a IHB lurker and now poster.  My brother and his family live in Irvine so I keep up on property values and rents there.  I currently live in San Francisco and rent an older house (1940s) in an OK neighborhood (Sunset) for $3200.  It is not the Victorian style common in SF, but rather a drafty, overgrown cottage style w/about 1700 sf.  The street is tightly packed and, while the adjoining properties do not technically share a wall it feels and sounds like they do.  My rental property and neighborhood are nowhere near as nice as this house.  So as overpriced as Irvine seems to many readers here (myself included), SF is worse.  And quite frankly I suspect my landlords (who use a management service to collect rents and perform maintenance) are going to raise my rent when the lease is up.  Talk about a tough check to write!  But not as tough as the down payment check to buy the place.  The nicer houses on the street sell (or at least list) for $1 million+.

Yeah, when a willing buyer and seller consummate a transaction. That’s why I love it when people talk about how much they think something should be worth and really want to ignore how much they could actually sell it for.

I think we all post here because we all have ideas about what’s going to happen in the future, none of us has a crytal ball so look to others to find some common thinking so we can plan on what we need to do.

Yesterday, IPOP was arguing that rents will stay stable or rise because OC has a large stable job base of 1.7M and posted a pdf to prove it.

I look at those same numbers and see big trouble ahead 160k OC jobs (10% of OC’s jobs) are state or local gov jobs, now with 14 billion dollar deficit in the state for 07 and immeadiate 10% cutbacks and larger deficits need to be closed in 08 a number of those jobs will have to go away.

100K jobs in construction where you can expect at least a 20% hit in the next 2 years.

Real estate and finance jobs at risk.

Thats why I think the party’s comming to an end, some people wouldn’t acknowledge it till it’s over.

It ain’t the houses, it’s the land!

Kirk,

Socialism - a theory or system of social organization that advocates the vesting of the ownership and control of the means of production and distribution, of capital, land, etc., in the community as a whole.

So get your f’n shiz straight! Setting rules is not even close to what socialism means, you twat!