Accelerated mortgage defaults likely choice to deleverage household debt

Dec 24th, 2010  
by IrvineRenter  in Library News

Astute Observations

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-12-24 07:24 AM

Forget the analysis.  Forget all the arguments.  Forget the blame.

The person(s) who bought this home for $3,500,000 in 2005 were just plain stupid.

Astute Observation by winstongator
2010-12-24 08:22 AM

This person probably bought a similar home in 2003/4 for $2M and sold it in 2005 for $3M, netting a cool mil.  They were the ones in 2006 telling you all you were missing and about the can’t miss investment value of real-estate.

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-12-24 07:26 AM

Also, just saw the report on the amount of money recently leaving retail bond funds.  Interest rates will probably go down again before they head up.  Darn!

Astute Observation by winstongator
2010-12-24 08:28 AM

Investors leaving bonds pushes rates up - prices down, rates up.

The article I saw was short-sighted.  It said Wal-mart IBM or JnJ couldn’t borrow at 1% anymore.  It failed to mention that JnJ could use the proceeds from its debt issuance to buy back its debt and post a massive profit.  Those companies did not really need the cash, they figured the terms were just too good to pass up.

Astute Observation by awgee
2010-12-24 08:50 AM

“Investors leaving bonds pushes rates up - prices down, rates up.”

Exactly, and retail investors are the herd, the last to get on the train.  Which means prices on bonds will probably be going down next.

I look at the retail investor as a gauge as what not to do, and what the past trend was.

I want more than anybody for rates to continue to go up, but I find it more important to acknowledge the facts.

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-12-24 09:40 AM

Avoiding bias and acknowledging the facts gives you a chance to make money.

Some people follow their emotions and end up following the herd investors without even knowing it.  Any time you see record transaction volume be very nervous.

Astute Observation by romeotybalt
2010-12-24 07:32 AM

WOW…

It makes my 400k default with no HELOC seem pretty pedestrian by comparison.

Astute Observation by flyovercountry
2010-12-24 01:14 PM

Interested in sharing any details?

Is that a 400k loss to the bank or was the loan amount 400k?

Astute Observation by akula
2010-12-24 04:14 PM

I think he strategically defaulted (walked away from $400k loan and became a squatter)

Astute Observation by Chris
2010-12-25 08:44 PM

“(walked away…became a squatter)”

Isn’t that oxymoron?

Astute Observation by romeotybalt
2010-12-26 01:55 AM

Akula is right.

I walked away from the mortgage but not the house.

Astute Observation by flyovercountry
2010-12-26 08:23 AM

How much underwater are/were you, and how long have you been squatting?

Astute Observation by romeotybalt
2010-12-27 08:36 AM

Was underwater by over 50%, since my 405K house could appraise at 149K, but no buyer will touch it until 129K. Everyone wants a great deal in this market.

The house is 3100 sq. ft. not including basement.

The house behind me is a larger, brick home built in 1903 with columns, dentils, and a raised design in the stone.  It sold for 38K at a foreclosure sale.

A woman I know bought a smaller 3rm 2bth home with a full 100 ft. in the same area for 6k cash.  She out 25k in repairs.

She is renting it out for 1200 monthy.  I think she incorporated and may be able to charge off some of the expenses relative to her income.

Personally, I have been sqatting for about 15 months.

I am just at the point of receiving a notice of foreslosure (not NOD), but I have been fighting a fradulent service for 8 months.

The last court date the bank screwed up the paperwork and they have to re-file it.

Procedually if I do nothing they can go from a notice of default to order of possesion in another 7 months.

I don’t think I will not do nothing.

Astute Observation by MortgagesByMark
2010-12-27 10:09 AM

Wow, what state are you in? That’s over 60% depreciation. The Inland Empire area of SoCal has seen price drops like that, but I’m guessing you’re not in California because there aren’t too many places in the state where people have basements.

Astute Observation by romeotybalt
2010-12-27 12:34 PM

I am certainly not in California.

I am in a major midwestern city, though.

Astute Observation by tazman
2010-12-28 11:09 AM

Must be Detroit! smile

Astute Observation by romeotybalt
2010-12-28 12:57 PM

Ha Ha.  Not even.

Though it is arguable that with peak oil, our national debt, and crumbling educational sytem, that every most major cities will one day resemble Detroit.

Astute Observation by Perspective
2010-12-24 09:18 AM

“...Most of the deleveraging will come through default of underwater mortgages, although less consumption likely will be part of the equation as well…”

We are definitely consuming less due to our underwater position.  I want to always have enought cash to cover the underwater amount (a downward moving target).  The only substantial purchase this has delayed is probably a car, but it’s also diverting some cash from 401k contributions to savings accounts.

Astute Observation by georges kfoury
2010-12-24 09:49 AM

You don’t need statistics to tell you that Americans are anxious about
their finances. Keep the worry out of mortgages by following these three suggestions.
Americans are worried. According to a recent report by the Rockefeller Foundation,
93 percent of households suffered a minimum of one “substantial economic shock”
between March 2008 and September 2009. And, in the summer of 2010, more than 70
percent of Americans were worried about losing their jobs.

Astute Observation by irvine_home_owner
2010-12-24 01:10 PM

I realize I give Larry a hard time occasionally but I just want to say thanks for all the hard work he puts into this site and wish him, Shevy and Zovall a happy holiday season.

And Merry ChrisKwanUkkah to everyone else!

Astute Observation by Walter
2010-12-24 03:08 PM

I also would like to add a Happy Holidays to Larry and team and throw in wishes for a prosperous new year.

Viva Las Vegas cash flow and trustee flip properties.

Astute Observation by alan
2010-12-24 05:22 PM

A friend of mine just lost his 3 Mil home in Newport in a divorce.  He had 1.5 mil + cash in it and the note was around 1.1 mil.  The deficiency was about 100k.  He could have made it up but he was camping out at a friends house, his wife of 3 years got an order to kick him out and he couldn’t even get an order to get in to get his stuff (including his cloths) so he let it default. The bank had it auctioned off within a week (presumably because the bank actually had equity).  It went on the court house for 1.3 mil.  My friend couldn’t believe how low it went for.  Sorry PR but stories like this don’t make it lood good for Irvine prices in the near term.

Astute Observation by jed clampett
2010-12-24 06:19 PM

like to know who held/holds the $2.8 m. first on that baby

nice lawn too

merry christmas

this/you blog rules (the planet) !

Astute Observation by Interested
2010-12-25 02:57 AM

What do you think this place is worth?

Astute Observation by SanJoseRenter
2010-12-25 09:28 PM

Courthouse steps ... $1.15 to $1.3 million,
Retail Market ... $1.5 to $1.85 million

IR, note that you have a typo above:

$1,000,000,000 = $1 billion
$1,000,000,000,000 = $1 trillion smile

Astute Observation by Planet Reality
2010-12-26 09:19 AM

That sounds about right, at most $2 - $2.2M in the retail market.  Original pricing was WTF stupidity, no equity bubble buyer.  Near zero risk investment of $3M, where else can you get access to capital on those terms?

Both San Jose and Irvine have income and assets to support million plus McMansions.

Astute Observation by Sam
2010-12-26 04:18 PM

I think I just found my new squatters palace!

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