One can assume the email correspondent lives in the neighborhood and is personally affected.  Back East things are not much better for those who bought after 2004.  They are seeing all they worked and borrowed for go up in smoke.

Obviously they are scared about their own situation but you live in that area so you are going to write and use examples about the area you live in. It doesn’t seem that the email understands the premiss of the blog or the parameters of the property choices.

Bub I know you are scared but to take your fear out on IR by making this seem (to you) like a personal vendetta is just weak. If you don’t like what he is saying don’t visit.

I have ‘lurked’ here for two years, but never posted.  I wanted today to express my appreciation for the site, and believe that it saved me $200,000 to $300,000, as I was about to buy in 2006.  Thankfully I did not.  I will wait it out another year in a rental, save my money, and go into a purchase with 30% down, or more, on a home I plan to stay in forever.

A Sociopath?  I think she needs to look up the meaning of the word.  Its funny, because during the bubble she probably saw herself as being wealthier than she was, bragging to one and all about how much her house was “worth” and now that the truth is unleashed she is bitter.

How many of you sat and listened year after year hearing other adults openly brag about how much they could sell their house for?

I can’t feel the love, but I can taste the schadenfreude and it tastes GOOD!

I bought a used refrigerator from a soon to be vacating homeowner in Columbus Grove a month ago. The owner was about to “walk away” from his house. I got the opinion he wasn’t the first or the last to do so.

I wasn’t aware of your spat IR but I knew you were not well liked by those who consider it their right to expect exhorbitant value in their house. But someone has to declare the emperor has no clothes and it may as well be you.

Ha ha. You can’t make a proper housing bust omelet without breaking a few eggs. I guess your correspondent is a very bitter broken egg. Too bad for her.

I can feel the love. I’m lovin’ the housing bust.

I thought Truthiness and her friends had conservative traditional financing.  Wow, we are just finding out new things about this asset bubble every day.  This is surprising, unexpected, and absolutely shocking.

schadenfreude rush!!  Sometimes I feel guilty but then I think of all of those “investors”/realtors during the boom telling me that I’m going to be priced out forever.

What the hell were people thinking? I hate to see people suffer, but too many people were only focused on the monthly payment. No one had any plan for when the option ARM reset.

I have NO sympathy for those who bought $500,000
homes with $80K incomes and are now crying that they can’t afford their mortgage. You could blame the realtors and mortgage brokers all you want for pushing creative mortgage products, but ultimately it’s the buyers responsibility to determine what he can afford.

Another greater fool Truthiness could have taken advantage of… you are an evil man Irvine Renter.

I have no idea what kind of financing Truthiness used. I have never looked up her data.

“ultimately it’s the buyers responsibility to determine what he can afford.”

That may be true, but it seems to me that it is really the lender’s responsibility to figure out what the borrower can afford. They are the ones at risk if the borrower defaults. If a lender burdens a borrower with too much debt, and the borrower defaults, both parties get hurt. The lender loses money, and the borrower has damaged credit. Lenders are supposed to be the adults in the relationship. I think they abdicated their responsibility, and now we all have to pay for their irresponsibility.

She is directing her anger to the wrong target and feels offended, insulted when nobody is practically doing that to her.

So it could have been an income bubble as well…..... I am flabbergasted.

what the heck is a 0.75 bathroom? I mean c’mon, what got a bidet in there? does that count 0.25 of a bathroom.

y’no what? don’t answer. i don’t need to fill up my brain with that piece of information.

I am somewhat new around here.  Who is Truthiness?  (FWIW - 0.75 of a bath is a toilet, sink and shower stall w/o a tub.)

I’m terribly sorry you receive such abuse and personal attacks,  IR.  Human nature can be notoriously unkind to truth tellers.  I commend you for never using this blog as a venue to attack others.  You have consistently kept the discussions “above the belt” and focused on numbers only. 

Thank you for providing this valuable service.

Sadly, IR, I’m not surprised that you got this letter, because this individual somehow figures that your reporting on bad news is somehow creating it.  Take it as encouragement that you’re doing the right thing:  in this case, not only does the empress have no clothes, but I think someone swiped a few of her tattoos, too.

I am sure that there will one day be a question on the SAT tests…........

Son of sam, charles manson….........

a) george washington
b) ghandi
c) Irvine renter

You have profiled properties in Northpark that are now worth much less than they were.  I live in Northpark and, unfortunately, had to buy at the peak.  My property is very much underwater.

Never once have I considered the possibility that you were attacking me personally.  Even if I had to sell my property right now and take a huge loss, I don’t believe for a moment that you did anything to affect that situation.

Your profiles seem to be educated guesses and your attacks on perceived flippers doesn’t come across as personal.  There may be back stories that I don’t know about and I am sure, given the size of your blog, that there is a temptation to profile people that may have bad personal relationships with you.  If this is the case and you have singled out certain people, that is between you and them.

Raise your hand if you are a self-serving greedy bastard.  IPO raises his hand…

I do miss truthi.  She is definitely entertaining in the car-accident-can’t-avert-your-eyes kind of way.

Thanks for a good trip down memory lane IR.  The post of mine that truthi referenced was spot on in a couple of ways.  In Dec 2007 I said my place was worth $600K and I sold it for that amount seven months later.  I am today, as a renter, spending way more than I was as an owner on housing.  Since home prices haven’t moved down that much (my old place would probably sell for $575K today) over the past year, I am just spending more each month and don’t as yet have a potential payback on a cheaper future mortgage due to price declines.

Boy, I sure wish the $100-150K I thought my old place would fall would become reality.  Only a fraction of that has come to pass over the last twelve months.

A shower and a toilet.  It needs a tub to be a full bath.

Boy do we live in a society full whining fools. Does anybody take responsibility for their actions? In the end, I guess ignorance wasn’t bliss after all for her.  Instead, it reared it’s ugly head and now she needs someone to blame. 

I wonder what kid of response she would have given if you informed her that she never “owned” her home in the first place. Or inform her that her house is not an asset. 

This is going to be a really ugly wake up call for most Americans.

Her email reminds me of what I am hearing from soo many—that 2008 was an awful year and they can’t wait for it to be over.

Yesterday I had it with this talk—after my wife repeated it from a friend of ours.  I said I disagree.  2008 was a great year.  It was the second year of my turning around my career after 2 tough years between 05 and 06 when I had to hear endless people chastise me for not buying a house and see others around me appear to get rich while I was struggling to get clients and pay bills.  But not once did I complain or whine about my situation—I fixed it myself. 

And 08 brought a change I wanted in the white house (I know on an OC blog this may not be a mutual feeling), and 08 brought us the start of the housing fix—a return to long term stability where fundamentals once again rule the day and people who deserve and can afford to buy a home get to do so at a reasonable price.

Now by no means am I rejoicing in people loosing jobs, going broke or even loosing a house—but as I did in 05 and 06 my advice is to take control and stop complaining.  So to this writer—either suck it up and pay your mortgage and realize that a primary home should not be viewed as an investment but as a consumable (just like your car) or take your medicine, sell or let your home be foreclosed, and move on in a better and more responsible direction.

But do note this—not once did I blame others for my problems—not even my x business partner—after all it was I who kept working with him and chose not to split ways for 2 bad years.  So please Ms. email writer—stop blaming those of us who brought intellectual discourse into the issue of what is now universally seen as an irresponsible period of lending and buying homes people cannot afford.

She should be directing her anger at those who drove prices up to bubble levels.

You know, people like herself. D’oh!

(Those alligator tears nauseate me. I’m sure she was going to dedicate all her “home equity” profits to charity, right? You know, like the displaced in Darfur or the victims of domestic violence? And I’m sure she was saddened that so many people were “priced out”, I’m sure she felt terrible about these people.)

There’s nothing like a bit of reality to piss some people off…

A lot of people have been living in a dream world for a long time. It’s going to be the most painful for these people over the next few years.

“They are the ones at risk if the borrower defaults.”

Not to be a cynic, but I think that the lenders not only wanted to shear the sheep, but skin them afterward. Take their money in monthly payments and if/when they can’t continue to pay, take the asset. The only thing that I don’t think they thought of was that the asset would lose value.

I hear you, ipo.  I’m waiting, waiting, waiting for prices to fall in my neighborhood of choice so that I can buy and be done with renting.  I check your spreadsheet regularly.  Houses are selling and prices have barely budged.

Has anyone else notice rent has been dropping fast in Irvine?  That mean current renters and future renters will be less inclined to dough out for the opportunity to own that bottomless money pit we call “home”.  BTW, they are building apartment homes at a furious rate in Irvine - should be good for bigger drops in rent in the near future.

I just checked rental 4 bedroom SFRs last night and there is nothing cheaper comparable to what I termed up on back in June.  I don’t any evidence of great softness there… 

I imagine on smaller units, rents are probably falling, just like prices are falling more quickly on smaller less-desirable properties in Irvine in terms of sales.

Couple of points re: your rent vs. own on that property IR.  The special assessments are too high.  MRs on that property are $5K per year, not $7K.  Homeowners insurance would be more like $50 per month vs. $145.

That being said, the place is probably still $1200 above owner-occupied rental parity, i.e. horribly overpriced.  Probably should be listed for $600K and they would find a crazy buyer to pony up something in the high $500K range.  Those MRs and HOA are a killer…

My “walk away” neighbor took all of the appliances with him (fridge, range/oven, microwave, etc.).

So, naturally, when it sells for 30% less that its purchase price, I’ll go ahead and rationalize that “but for the missing applicances, it would’ve sold for much more.” Great coping mechanism, no?

Apologizing for my ignorance - but what spreadsheet are you referring to?

Thanks.

And mortgage rates falling so low isn’t going to help either…  Jumbo conforming 30-years loans are at 5.25 today with no points.  Conformings are in the 4’s.  Those must be incenting some buyers to pull the trigger.

If the economic/employment picture wasn’t so poor right now, I know that it would be hard for me ignore a 5% 30-year loan on $500K.  That’s like $1312 per month after-tax in interest cost if you are already itemizing and sure helps put a property closer to rental parity.

IR..you greedy bastard! Thanks for all your hard work and great entertainment. Rock on!

“...realize that a primary home should not be viewed as an investment but as a consumable (just like your car)...”

I use this argument with friends when they try to give me a good-natured hard time for my home losing 20% of its peak value (to date). Everyone who has made a comment has purchased a new luxury car in the past couple years. So, they’re very willing to purchase a $50k+ car knowing it will depreciate 30%+ immediately and continue to lose value indefinitely, but, somehow buying a home (within your means) and losing 20% in two years is shocking?

Oh, and two of these friends have babies due shortly. So of course, I now respond to those comments about my house with a little comment about how expensive their blessed child will cost to raise just to 18.

Homebuyers thought buying in Irvine is a guarantee of price retention. This is obviously a costly lesson for many and for those unfortunately purchased in the Columbus Villages. Not only do the villages faced with negative environmental impact the communities were not properly branded. Most Irvine residents are brand conscientious and status driven as a result a community with a tarnished image and inferiority it will take a long time in its recovery or remain in its comatose state. A village must have the proper layering of designed topology and syntax like a car must have properly functioning mechanism. Without them such in the case of Columbus home prices will not only plummet but must hit bottom to make them attractive for home buyers or investors. 

Homebuyers in Irvine is the most discriminate in the entire country and even some Irvine villages not properly branded are facing financial turmoil as in the case of Northwood II. Its location is no different form Woodbury but its fate is doomed. One must choose a community very carefully for price retention. This recession
Is no doubt an important casestudy in identifying the best price insulated villages and its direct correlation to the confidence of the homeowners believing in the brand.

Regarding the resiliency of some areas of Irvine (as illustrated in IPOPs data) I have always thought the Irvine housing fundamentals would be somewhat different from the rest of Orange County.

Irvine has established a true comparative advantage with public schools relative to the rest of Orange County.  The willingness of people to pay a higher down payment and put a greater percentage of income towards their house are impacted by this comparative advantage.  The Asian community most certainly feeds this comparative advantage from the education side and the down payment side.

Personally I would rather live in a nicer area of Orange County and pay the exorbitant fees of sending my kids to private school.  When you make this economic comparison the Irvine Housing premium starts to make more sense. 

I fully expect the Irvine Housing market to decline further, but I think there will always be a premium in Irvine relative to more vanilla areas with mediocre to poor schools.  This is part of the reason for the Irvine Housing Blog’s popularity.  I’m not trying to take anything away from Irvine Renters eloquent blog post and pensive analysis, which also add to the popularity of this blog.  However I doubt Mission Viejo Renter posting on the Mission Viejo Housing Blog would have ever gained this level of notoriety.  Coincidentally the precipitous decline in housing prices in vanilla areas like Mission Viejo are likely related to that…

(A prior commenter probably has said this already, but:)

It’s neither “personal” nor an “attack” for IR to post his routine, “look how this property has fallen / is still overpriced / etc.” commentaries.  If there is a criticism—an “attack”?—it’s directed at the overvaluing of the property by the would-be seller.

There’s nothing “personal.”  Personal would be pointing out that the seller is fat, too.  (Or her accusing you of being dishonest.  That’s personal.)

Sure, she lives there and stands to lose a boatload of money, so it affects her personalLY, but that doesn’t make IR’s posts “personal.”

Mav - you took the words right out of my mouth.  No one else seems to see the irony.  A blog dedicated to a premium area, filled with hundreds of posters (and even more lurkers) carping about why prices havent fallen much in said premium area.

The fact of the matter is, the premium area will not fall as much so long as people care about it and want to live there.  Quite simply, there are too many people interested in it, and not enough homes to meet that demand. 

The day people quit caring about nice areas in irvine is the day they plummet.  Until then, unsatisfyingly slow and mild price declines shall be the order of the day…

IR,
Ignorance+(10xDenial)= Undivided Arrogance
People are getting past the Ignorance but they are barely digging through the Denial.

Irvine is a strange beast as I am realizing while renting here. It is a very yuppie town in most ways. The yuppie mentality is responsible for most of the denial here in Irvine. If it were not for the crashing economy and declining credit limits, people would continue to live on borrowed money and pretend that they are rich. After renting here for a while, I am unsure if I would want to own here based on the extreme ‘Socal pathology’ or whether I would be able to afford to own here even while there are much better deals in the fringe cities.
Regards,
PH

You are correct Yep. A “premium area” is subjective. Just because Irvine “had” that rep in the bubble years doesn’t mean it will in the future.

I wonder how “premium” Irvine will be if unemployment gets higher?

IrvineRenter,

  I was going to make some snarky comment about the ridiculous asking price of today’s featured property, but then remembered that I almost bought a 1/1 in Columbus Grove in 2006 for $468,000.  This blog, and the fact that the ground is toxic, helped to bring me to my senses.  Keep up the good work.

-DT

This was a story run on NPR this morning and I was astounded by the details.  A heart wrenching for sure but just how does one qualify for a $500K no down loan with $22K income EARLIER THIS YEAR! The audio isn’t available as 10:30AM PST but may be later today.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=98450421

The Wazadally family will likely be foreclosed on early next month. With just $22,000 dollars in annual income, bankers gave the Wazadallys a $550,000 home loan earlier this year. WNYC reporter Cindy Rodriguez has the story of this downwardly mobile family figuring out where to go after foreclosure.

Meanwhile, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Steve Preston tells Madeleine Brand that the government-backed Hope for Homeowners program has failed. The program was hatched as way to keep struggling homeowners from foreclosing but red tape has blocked many people in need.

I agree that it is difficult to define what that “premium” will be especially in a deflationary environment.  However, people with a culture of frugal living, prudent savings, and community, are set up extremely well to prosper during a deflationary period.  The antithesis of the generic prodigiously spending OC culture.  Perhaps the premium could grow even as home prices plummet in a deflationary environment?

Bkshopr have you ever tried to monetize this premium?  I would like to see your analysis if you have.

BTW, I have always been a huge fan of Truthiness, and I am proficient in deciphering her writing… I believe she has jumped into the discussion as the Yep character.  Truthiness, if I am wrong, your insight on this matter would be appreciated specific to Columbus Grove.

Wow.  I am almost speechless.  Almost.  I ABSOLUTELY DO NOT feel sorry for people who were stupid enough to purchase ridiculously overpriced homes.  You are not a “better person” because you speak out against this writer of this blog.  I, along with many others, appreciate a fellow voice of reason.  Go home (if you still have one) and look in the mirror if you want to see a “sociopath.”  Then, shut up.

Why are the HOA’s so high in this village?  It’s seems rather high for a newer community.

So if I understand correctly, with Mello Roos and HOA’s it adds about $1k month?  That sucks.

I live across the street in Westpark and I can hear the cement plant and waste facility cranking away at odd hours…can’t imagine what it would be like to be living right next to them.

I agree Ipoplaya. I had to work to get a good deal on my house. Many nicer detached houses were being rented quickly which I assumed the owner was getting close to asking prices.

When we left our IAC (Rancho Tierra) apartments, the manager said they were not having much difficulty with prices yet, mainly because of ex-homeowners moving in.

I was chastised on the blog for paying $2260 for a nice detached 3/2 house in Northwood which used to get $2500. For now I’m happy knowing ownership costs would be well over $1000 higher.

I think you are exactly the type of person the angry writer had in mind.  If it wasn’t for IrvineRenter, you could have been the suffering owner instead.

Glad you did your research.  Welcome to the board.

You go Irvine Renter
you have saved me thousands.
I am definitely not suffering

Reminds me of the realtors trying to rationalize why a very similar house down the street with a better view sold for $600k less than they were asking.  “It was a foreclosure, and a fixer”.  OK, there might be some difference due to it being a fixer.  As I pointed out to the realtor, I could bulldoze the other house, spend $300 per square foot building a brand new home the same size, and still come out cheaper than the home she was trying to sell me. 

That $600k difference keeps shrinking.  Now down to $300k, and still not selling.

I’ll bet the correspondent hasn’t broken yet, but is feeling the pressure and the heat.

Once people have let their homes go to foreclosure, or done their short sale, if the rest of their life is in order they are very relieved.  Especially for short sales, a lot of those people can pay for a nice rental, or even a cheaper house.

Don’t quite get your “branding” point…

Have you asked them how their stock market investments are doing?

When you look at it really closely, a given price decline in real estate is usually worse, because of leverage.  You can lose much more than your initial investment.  Still, people who have lost 30%+ on their stock market investments shouldn’t play holier than thou to those who have lost money in real estate.

Disclosure: I own no stocks and my portfolio will have a gain in 2008.  Got out of my last stocks in August, had been mostly out for a year prior.  However, I will be putting my money where my mouth is and buying when fundamentals look right.  That’s Dow around 7000.

Excellent drivel!  You’re pretty talented at skewering realtor and economist babble.

At least, I hope that’s what you’re doing.

Could be a blessing in disguise I suppose.  Anyone out there have a story about a foreclosure or short sale that changed their life for the beter?

better*

Hey hey… watch the “Asian Community” reference.

You may get photoshopped into infamy.

It’s all about the “Legend of the FCB*”!

*To find out more about FCBs… please visit the IHB forums.

Could I trade the tub for a bidet?

If an area is “premium”, it probably also was premium in 2000, when prices were much lower.

The premium areas I follow closely, Calabasas and Malibu, both had prices which held up longer than others nearby.  Now, both are plunging.  The list prices have trickled slowly down, but the actual sale prices have dropped quickly.  The rate of sales has really dropped.  In November, there was a 10 year supply of homes (350 homes and condos for sale, 3 sales closed).

The program was hatched as a way to keep people who could pay from electively defaulting.  That’s one of the objectives of many modification programs.  Keep homeowners in their houses by having them watch for the next bailout. 

That also keeps the number of foreclosures and short sales on the market down.

Wow.

Looks like the Natives are restless in Columbus Grove. Saddly reality bites hard. And its only going to get worse. IR keep up the good work.

I went with a friend to pick up a car at the Tow Yard a few hundred yards from this property over
on Construction. When the wind blows the wrong way it must really stink in this neighborhood.
The waste recycling plant is very close.

Damn you IR, you sociopath.  You single handedly caused real estate to drop, and it’s only because you hate me.  Quit being such a self-serving greedy bastard.

I smell it driving on the way home down Warner.

Unfortunately, the lender’s have managed to socialize their losses onto our backs.  The banks did abdicate their responsibility, but they didn’t care, they were selling their loans off as CDOs.

I have the same feeling about Irvine as does PurpleHaze.  My husband went to college here and loved it, so we came to rent while he followed his business opportunity (no, not in the mortgage biz).  We hoped to save money and buy a place in Irvine, but that goal is changing with the faltering economy.  And I’m none too sad about it, as I haven’t gotten over the “Truman Show” aspect of Irvine.  I also lived in a planned community growing up, but the yuppie factor in Irvine really turns things up a notch.  I don’t talk too much about it with my husband, as I’m hoping to completely move out of the OC…

And for the poor lady who is upset with IR - puh-leeze.  She should be writing in capitulation: “IrvineRenter got a hold of a property in Columbus Grove (haha…or my house)to profile!! He was right about home prices.  Confound him! How do I get him to focus on Woodbury again?!?!?!  I need a kkknnniiifffeeeccaaatttccchhhhherrrrrrrrr!”

I was brought up to believe homeownership was something to aspire to…but I turned down several crazy loans for a crappy property because I COULD NOT AFFORD IT!! So lady, I’m sorry you’re suffering, but get your panties out of the knots they’re in and face the grim reaper.  A good majority of us are struggling now, homeowner or not, and striking out against IR for doing his research and sharing it seems more than a bit misguided. 

Hell, I’m glad he’s making money on this…hip,hip,hooray for the American way. 
HATE THE GAME, NOT THE PLAYA.  You probably would have agreed with something like that back in 2006…

AAAaaagh!!!

You missed your big chance!!!

The song to use would have been “Lunatic Fringe”-

I thought the realtors description should not be mocked but commended for its apparent eveidence of effort.

Look ladies noone here makes a nickel on any of you or your suffering. That’s just a damned slander.
I have 7 people in a 1500 sq. ft. house. Maybe you deserve a less intense population density ‘cuz you’re a better person than me.
Or maybe you overbought and share a wee smidgen of responsibility for your own plight.
If the truth causes you pain don’t blame the messenger.
IR has NEVER delighted in the sufferings of the undeserving but he does have the integrity to say that when people like to front like they’re rich and pullout huge sums from their home equities and then walk away holding huge cash and assets and want to be viewed as innocent vistims it’s JUST NOT RIGHT.
He’s providing an INCREDIBLY GENEROUS public service and for that he deserves commendation and gratitude not harshness from those who don’t like the sound of the truth.
Want your own voice to be heard? Start your OWN blog!!!
The dns Irvine Whiners’ Blog is still available…

I’ve a question for those of you who are considering buying now. Esp now that mortgage rates are so low , it seems very attractive when compared to renting.

If you buy this house at rental parity and let say you live in the house for 10 years.

if we assume lowest ever rates now, will it be reasonable to assume higher rates in 10 years and then what will happen to the price of the home.

Lunatic Fringe was made popular by Red Rider-

“I think of all of those “investors”/realtors during the boom”

I don’t think the term investor is the correct word for these people.  Investors use their own money.  These people used bubble financing, “OPM” to acquire the properties and then extracted further equity with HELOCs or made only partial interest payments on their “exotic loan”.  When the bubble collapsed, they wine and give the property back to the bank.  These people never owned anything.  They were not investors.

[edited],

The shoe is finally on the other foot…how does it feel?  Us renters were the pariahs during the housing boom.  Many of us figured fundamentals were completely out of whack.  Our views are now justified as the house of cards has collapsed.

You should take your frustrations out on all the enablers of this mess.  Greedy banks, mortgage brokers, real estate agents, irresponsible home owners, etc.  This is classic Darwinism…only the strong will survive. 

Good luck out there, we’re all going to need it.

That doesn’t really make sense.  If the asset was worth more than the debt, the homedebtor would be able to refinance it or take out a HELOC.  That’s why foreclosures were so low during the bubble.

I bet this property has nice summer breezes from the cement plant next door and the host of recycling and industrial plants across the river *cough* sewer drainage *cough* in Construction Circle.

What a joke.

IR, keep your head up, at least you haven’t had a shoe (or two) thrown at you yet.

I don’t know what pain I caused..maybe the pain on the face of realtor when I told him/her that I thought the used house they were selling was priced too high.  Or the loan swindler when I turned down that tasty suicide loan that he/she would’ve made a bundle on.  Time and time again, all we have been saying is…give fundamentals a chance.  All to together now!  All we are saying…

Yes, I use the equities retort too! Although, it’s not so funny with one of my friends. She had the foresight and good timing and sold an Irvine condo in 2005 pocketing a $200k gain and has since rented. However, she placed that gain and other cash in “boring” mutual funds and is currently down 40%.

You will smell it driving on Jamboree just north of Barranca.

What’s the best way to find out housing price histories for some distant market—I’m considering several different locales and would like to have an idea “if I move to location X, is the housing market inflated?”

I would like to get the data to generate figures like IrvineRenter creates—median price, median price per square foot, and volume as a function of time. Ideally, I would get it for free.

I’ve looked at a couple of websites, but the transaction histories are worthless—incomplete (only a handful of recorded transactions) and shoddy (price, but no sqft data).  None of the data I found reached back further than six months ago.

Clearly I’m looking in the wrong places.  Where do people on this blog get their data from?

...or Vision Quest.

Those who bought in the aptly-named Columbus Villages are surely by now indeed discovering a new world-

You’re better off waiting until interest rates go up to buy.  Let high interest rates push prices down and buy when prices are depressed.  You can always refinance your mortgage when rates go down (since you’re not buying at the top of the bubble).

“Clearly I’m looking in the wrong places.  Where do people on this blog get their data from?”
Well, I do not know about others, but I find it convenient to just make stuff up.  That way my data fits my conclusions.

A neighbor and his son did a science project on the amount of particulates generated from that cement plant.  It was not good!  In fact the particles traveled as far as the 5 freeway when the wind comes in strongly from the ocean.

Didn’t the VOC’s namesake Columbus Tustin die bankrupt after he couldn’t attract enough would be homeowners to buy any lots?

idrnkurmlkshk with regards to the premium Irvine will have if unemployment gets higher, it should be about the same.  Unfortunately for us, unemployment hits both buyers and sellers.  (Unlike say Alt A resets which hits just sellers).  So, as the sellers lose their jobs, prices come down.  Unfortunately, statictically just as many of us have lost or jobs too, meaning the place is still as relatively unaffordable as it was before.

I also have IR to thank for not making a purchase toward the end of ‘06.  I was about to purchase a two bedroom condo right next to the 5 frwy on Monroe.  It was going to be $500k.  Now I’m looking at SFHs for the same price.

I don’t just have IR to thank for the $$$$$$ but now I’ll be able to get a house instead of sharing walls with my neighbors, and being sure to keep the windows and doors closed so I don’t have to smell them smoking on their porch.

I was just about suckered in toward the end of 2006, I’m so glad I found this site.  Thanks IR! 

I don’t know whether the description of the failure of the program due to “red tape” is correct or not, but we shouldn’t expect these types of programs to help everybody.

For example, the family making $22,000/year shouldn’t be living in a $550,000 home.  Period. 

As a practical matter, it’s unlikely they’d be able to amortize that home over 30 years even if they were paying zero interest.

As an equitable matter, the idea that my tax dollars should be going to provide a person who makes 1/10 as much as I do (and likely doesn’t pay a penny in federal income taxes) with a nicer home than I can afford makes me blind with rage.

I also don’t particularly understand all the hand-wringing about people like this being foreclosed on.  They didn’t pay any money to get into the home, they aren’t able to afford the home, why shouldn’t they be forced to find something that’s in their price range?  I don’t get it.

I frankly have no idea WTF these bankers are thinking approving these kinds of loans (unless it was a liar loan in which the income was mistated), but that has nothing to do with the points I raise above.

Monetizing the premium is easy. Look at rents compared to other cities.

The bankers were thinking that they got paid for making loans, not making good loans.

To aggravate things further, some mortgage brokers and a few banks provided incentives to get borrowers into loans which were worse deals and more expensive for the borrowers.

If you did these kinds of things selling securities, your license would be revoked.  In real estate these things were well-known, and many unethical practices were legal in many states.

I can’t believe you guys do get it. The central idea that IR and other bubble bloggers have been talking about the last 3 years is that home prices are overvalued comapared to rents and incomes. Home prices in Irvine are “too” high compared to rents and incomes… in Irvine. The fact that Irvine has high desirability and commands higher prices is 1) not in dispute and 2) not relevant to the discussion. Seriously, it’s important that you get this because if you don’t, then you are clueless as to what this whole housing bubble was about.

Home prices aren’t especially sensitive to interest rates.  It’s a moderate correlation. 

In the short run, what tends to happen is prices stay the same when rates rise, but fewer people buy.  If nothing else changes (inflation, unemployment, wage growth), prices would slowly drift down. 

On the other hand, refinancing is very sensitive to interest rates.  That’s why mortgage brokers get so excited about a half point drop. 

One of the other subtleties about interest rates is that it should be the real rate of interest which matters.  However, very few people do real rate of interest calculations.  If we are currently in deflation, a 5.5% loan could have a real rate of interest of 8%.  If you kept that 5.5% loan for many years, it might be a better deal later when inflation returns.

You can find it here www.ipoplaya.com

I can’t believe you don’t get my point.  I am not challenging macro housing fundamentals of Orange County or California or the United States. 

I am challenging you to think about other factors when analyzing a small area.  Factors like the size of down payments and how education is valued.  I am not saying prices won’t continue to drop.  Please since you appear to know a lot more than me, explain why the drop in Irvine is slower than the drop in an area like Mission Viejo. Is the income disparity that great?, exactly what is impacting this?  Maybe I am just asking you a quesiton that you already know the answer to… and you simply do not want to admit it to yourself.

“I am proud beyond measure with who I am and what I stand for.  I am only interested in lifting others up.“

Pride comes just before the fall.

“People only live in fringe markets because they are priced-out of more desirable areas, so when prices drop in the better areas, people leave fringe markets, and prices really plummet.”

I don’t think I have ever found anything to complain about here at IHB - but this statement, and claiming that the entire city of San Clemente is “fringe” because only people who are priced out of other markets live here, is laughable.

Perhaps if you are referring to SC’s overpriced stucco tract boxes lined up, Irvine-style? 

Certainly there are CRAPPY areas in SC just as there are in other towns.  Yes, it’s far from Irvine, Newport, etc. - guess what?  Not everybody works in Irvine or Newport.  Not everybody wants to live there, either.  For a multitude of reasons. 

Having owned homes in San Clemente off & on for the last 20 years, I can say without a doubt that your statement about this area being “fringe” is a complete generalization.  There are micromarkets in this town that rival some of the nicest neighborhoods in Newport and Laguna, only with a hell of a lot better SURF - which is another micromarket in and of itself.  You would be surprised at the number of high falutin’ execs that will plop down 3 to 4 million in cash to purchase a home here that is close to a good break.  In addition, there are other reasons for living here that have nothing to do with being “under priced” relative to say, Corona del Mar, where I have also lived - or Laguna, where I have also had a home.

Please remember that everyone has a different opinion of the “best” places in this county.  I for one wouldn’t live in Irvine, Newport or CDM is I was paid to.  San Clemente is just fine by me, for my own reasons.  Having said that, there are areas in San Clemente that are hideous.

PS: I cashed out at the peak and now rent.

Hey, good to see you in the comments section, bkshopr—haven’t noticed you here in a while. 

Can you give an example of what you mean when you say certain villages are suffering because of branding?

As to DeathToSinan’s comment, though in yesterday’s comment section I spent a lot of time defending the plausibility (and non-racist nature) of your theories about the price-retention-supporting nature of various Asian cultural traits at work in Irvine, since in your comment above you’re chastising those who were expecting Irvine price retention, I’m curious whether you’ve changed your mind as to how much effect these cultural traits will have on prices here.

Promising.  Thanks for pointing that out.

I believe I did understand your point. You think that Irvine home prices have fallen less, and will fall less,  than other cities because of it’s high desirability. And yes, I disagree with this. I never said you were challenging that prices would continue to drop - don’t put words in my mouth.

To answer your questions, I think Irvine has fallen less so far for two reasons. First the dynamics of how home prices are catalyzed to move down during a housing bust result in fringe areas being affected faster, as IR has explained numerous times far better than I ever could. And second less desirable areas became more overvalued to begin with and have further to fall.

Yes, Irvine commands higher rents and prices than Mission Viejo, for all the reasons you mentioned. But I’m sorry, saying that one city is going to fall less than another because it is more desirable is a totally dumb argument. What matters is which city is more overvalued compared to it’s own fundamentals.

What is funny is that there is very little disparity between rents and incomes in Mission Viejo vs. Irvine.  Sorry to try to make you think a little.  That’s all I was really trying to do.

Speaking of aptly named, every time I see “VOC” on Villages of Columbus posters at The District, I chuckle as I read it to stand for “Volatile Organic Compounds”.