“Come back next week as we continue chronicling ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.”

You have great weekend too IR and I’m glad to see this line make a comeback.  You rock.

America’s values are all wrong.

for years i have lived with near-painful frugality out of a combination of green thought and thrift.  do a lot of errands on my bicycle or on the bus, keeping the car in the garage.  am thrifty in other ways that readers of this blog probably practice themselves.

there is no property-tax break for renters, no tax break for being a responsible user of transit and bikes. there WAS a tax break for SUV owners, you might remember. and a mortgage-interest tax deduction for all those stampeding ‘homeowners’ out there who were using refi money to buy designer clothes, new furniture, five-star meals, and trips to foreign beaches.

we all know the way they spent their money, but can somebody point me to a newspaper article that gives a concrete example of such waste and stupidity by someone? would love to read those infuriating details.

A few very good points. I do favor some tax deduction for renters.

450.00?  That is it? 

Call it what you want - smells like “sub prime” lending to me.

I love this guy!  He has dice as visual on his website and makes reference to gambling while buying/selling RE:

http://www.hughkice.com/

Too bad his email is inactive.  Makes sending an invitation nearly impossible :-(

Someone spends (I guess they never spent anything) $823K for a condo then can’t even afford to furnish the home properly. The photos explain it all, crummy and sparsely furnished. Someone gets an $823k mortgage that they obviously couldn’t afford. What was going through those peoples minds when they were signing the escrow and loan docs? We’ll worry about our financial doom later on.

I went to his website. Picked one property he claims he sold for $715K. Zillow states it sold for $715K on 05/16/2005. Another realtor smoke screen. These people are so F’d. I hope they saved a bunch of money they made these past few years. They’re gonna need it.

I always get disappointed when the MLS has all sorts of descriptions of all sorts of special features like the kitchen being all spiffy and upgraded… and then you look for a picture of those promised treats and…. NOTHING there!

Back in January I met a real estate agent like this guy.  He claimed that he has written books on mortgage.  His first statement was “I am here to help you.  You can borrow lot more than you think you can.”  That actually set an alarm bell, but wanted to have some fun with him.  So I made him go around 8 homes all afternoon on his Lexus.  After that never picked up his calls.  Just to get back at these criminals you folks might try this with some of these sharks. 

Good find!

Dice, classy!
I guess it’s a play on his last name too. Puns, also classy!

I’m sad that the “dream home finder” tab didn’t link to anything though…

From the “about me” portion of the website:

http://www.hughkice.com/Nav.aspx/Page=/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=1879241

Meet REALTOR® Hugh Kice
A third generation Southern California native, Hugh comes from a family entrenched in the real estate industry from many aspects. A USC graduate in business administration with a finance/real estate minor, he spent many years in sales and marketing management in “Corporate America” with companies such as General Electric, Litton Industries and Gulf + Western. He then decided to make real estate his “far more than full time” career.

Hugh´s number one goal is to build the strongest possible referral business in real estate from his clients by providing extraordinary client satisfaction and customer service.

“there is no property-tax break for renters”

The State does have a renters tax credit.

The reason we get “tax” breaks is to keep up our over spending, over consuming, fat, in-debt, economy.  I realized how screwed the so-called tax “breaks” were when I realized that our government encourages this glutton-like behavior. 

The government rewards spending beyond our means. 
And punishes the savers.

my state has one, but as i recall, you can’t claim it and the standard deduction at same time.

NJ and MA both have a renter’s deduction on state taxes, but NJ is much more generous with it, while MA limits it to pittance compared to actual metro area rents. Still, better than nothing, but not Fed.

(you can also claim the standard deduction at the same time with these two)

I disagree with you IR a little bit in that there are a group of homeowners who are feeling a lot of pain.  Those responsible homeowners that put money down to buy a home are now out all of that money.  Also, there are a lot of people out there who don’t have the knowledge of economics to understand what was going on - and the loss of the equity in thier home will hurt them.  Granted, believing that housing will never go down or that CA homes are worth millions is a bit of a stretch for anyone that has a mind - but this whole entire process over the past few years has been very confusing for everyone and the media is completely incompetent at explaining anything to anyone. 

I think one of the major moral hazards of all this is that the responsible buyers are the ones hurting the most - the ones who put money down and didn’t max thier equity lines - the irresponsible are coming out ok.

Just because you put down a down payment does not automatically make you a “responsible” buyer.  If you grossly overpaid for the house based upon what a lender was willing to let you borrow, you are just as irresponsible as those people who put no money down.

LMAO!~

I disagree AZ - to assume that everyone should understand what a house is ‘worth’ is a little unfair - in my opinion.  Although we have much more access to information with the internet than ever before the majority of the population is not as internet savvy as most people on this blog.  Time is also an issue for a lot of people.

My view of the media has fallen of a huge cliff throughout all this - I am not saying that the media is ‘responsible’ for educating people - however, the media should be doing a better job of presenting balanced opinions - and more importantly actually presenting information that helps educate instead of opress.

“overpaid” is such an easy thing to say but a lot harder to determine.

I go to Burger King the other day and noticed, horrified, that the cheapest ‘meal’ is now $6.50 and goes up to $7 and this is in Santa Ana.

(of course I spot the ‘value menu’ and got a crispy chicken sandwich for $1, a small drink for $1, and small fries for $1.)

So, are all the other people ‘overpaying’?  I’m just as full leaving BK with my $3 meal.

Back to houses, if all the houses/comparables in the neighborhood are selling for $400/sqft.  Are you overpaying if you buy one at $400/sqft?  Surely $360/sqft is a steal at 10% off the ‘norm’

So, would you kindly define ‘overpaid’ for me?

Can someone define equity burn for me?  I can think of several possible meanings in this context.  Thanks.

I believe MovingAround’s point is to differentiate between HELOC abusers/no-money-downers/ARM addicts and folks who put 20% down with a 30-year-fixed but just happened to buy at the peak.

The former group—the abusers—can reap all the pain that they sowed, for all I care. I do have sympathy, however, for someone in the latter group who might have to sell her house (to move to a new job, or because of medical catastrophe, etc.) at a huge loss. They’re only guilty of not knowing when the bubble was going to pop. Saying “you [who bought at the peak] are just as irresponsible as those people who put no money down” is a bit of a stretch.

Does CA have a renters tax credit?????

Yes, I agree. But from time to time, wanton behavior catches up with the over spenders and those with cash at the ready can take advantage of the displacements in the economy and society.

I have the cash, waiting for the opportunity. It has been a long wait.

LMAO I always get a kick out of your pics.

Replied to “Saying ‘you [who bought at the peak] are just as irresponsible as those people who put no money down’ is a bit of a stretch.”

This is total bullsh$t.

I have been through that before during the bubble.  I was ridiculed to no end by friends and family members for not participating in the bubble.

When you bought it at that bubbly price, it is your responsibility, and I do not feel sorry for anyone that is that foolish.

Excellent point,

The mortgage interest deduction makes no economic sense and should be abolished or at least capped at a much lower number, say $200,000.

The SUV (truck) tax break was supposed to help farmers, not suburban housewives.  It was abused and needs to be eliminated.

I wouldn’t be in favor of extending bad tax breaks to renters to compensate for bad tax breaks to homeowners and truck drivers.

so Food tell me - how was everyone supposed to know that there was a bubble?

i researched my state’s. it applies to very low incomes. so it’s a consolation prize for being very poor, like the earned income tax credit.

there’s still a lot of governmental contempt toward middle class and above who refuse to ‘do their duty’ by stupidly buying a house beyond their means.

Equity burn is the amount of property devaluation converted to a monthly figure. It is based on the assumption that properties will lose 10% a year for the next two years. I use the monthly figure to underscore the actual cost of owning property for those buyers who are “payment based” thinkers.

So, would you kindly define ‘overpaid’ for me?

Absolutely!  I will even do it kindly!

It’s not abstract at all when you think about it.

Let INCOME = some arbitrary number
Let MAX_AFFORDABLE_LOAN = 4 * INCOME
Let AMOUNT_SPENT = the $ that the lender gave you

IF AMOUNT_SPENT > MAX_AFFORDABLE_LOAN
  YOU_OVER_PAID
ELSE
  YOU_DID_NOT_OVERPAY

I hope that kindly quantifies things for you!

so how were people supposed to know this calculation of yours???  The banks weren’t telling them - the media wasn’t telling them - the realtors weren’t telling them - not everyone has a economics degree - ???

Check out these cartoons:

http://www.stus.com/review.php?rev=1

I just don’t get the ideology of “rewarding” someone for spending.  Tax breaks are nothing more than GLORIFIED REBATES.

I hated how realtards and brokers always spinned the concept of “tax breaks” as extra cash in your pocket. 

Wait, isn’t that money already? When did “getting a tax break” turn into a gift?

Exactly.

The down payment is comepletely irrelevent to affordability.  The down payment is nothing more than a pledge that you will honor the terms of the loan.

If you put down 100K on a 1 million dollar house when your income is only 100K per year - you are an irresponsible buyer.  No ifs ands or buts.  It is extremely easy and intuitive to understand (so I thought).

....sorry meant to say: 

Isn’t that MY money already??!  Thanks for “letting” me keep more of MY money.

MovingAround -

I don’t think knowing what a house is “worth” is as important as knowing what “you can afford”.

If everyone “knew what they could afford” then the housing market prices would fall in line.

You expect a bank and a realtor to tell you the truth?

I thought it was just common sense not to trust these people - just like we do not trust car salesmen.

Wow.  We are a gullible society aren’t we.

cout << “Hello World”;

STL all the way. WINK WINK.

It’s a nice neighborhood. So it will probably worth 300k at the bottom.

LOL. The 4 lines of code written by AZ doesn’t require an economics degree to figure out. It is common sense, well, common personal finance sense more specifically.

The media isn’t responsible for teaching you personal finance, and neither are realtors and banks. If you didn’t learn it in school, its your own responsibility to learn what you can afford and what you can’t afford. Sure you can technically overpay according to some paper napkin estimate of home prices 3 years after the purchase price, but if you purchased without considering your ability to pay, then you are destined to get kicked out of your home by the county sherrif sooner or later…that is unless you built <a >the Great Wall of Irvine</a> (see my post).

Let me try that link again…I am a web designer so I should be able to figure this out =P

<a >great wall of irvine</a>

I guess HTML anchor links aren’t allowed anymore?

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/more-heloc-abuse/

I had forgotten about the Great Wall of Irvine over at 4951 Lori Ann.

Oh you can never underestimate the slackness and laziness of the media. Most reporters are shallowly educated and quite incurious. Even if they (rarely) want to get to the bottom of something, they lack the expertise in the many fields to which they are assigned.

And newspapers need to keep their advertisers happy. Craigslist already shot the legs out from under them, and the disappearance of fat lavish realwhore ads is a gunshot to their vital organs.

If you saw the signal failure of the media to question the dotcom frenzy, their behavior during the housing frenzy was no surprise.

another option would be to tax profit on houses sold within the first 5 years of purchase or simply tax all all gains as regular income, irrespective of the duration of residence. It could reduce the speculative tendencies and stabilize the prices.

owners get 2 breaks, a mortgage tax break + plus a tax break when they sell.

Ladies and Gents,
The bottom line: Greed as the motivation for all these illogical actions.
I don’t even buy the “afraid to be priced out forever” justification for such purchase decisions.
In the back of those people’s mind, I’m sure there’s a thinking: “Let’s not worry.  We’ll have the loan refinanced when the price goes up.  Or when it goes up, we’ll sell and make some profit.”
And then they made their purchase decision, using any financing option available to them.
GREED.  That is it.
whatever helped form or enforced that line of thinking…whether the media or friends or relative or the frenzy… I don’t care!
Sympathy for greed-driven suffering.
Please give me a break!

One can also never underestimate the slackness and laziness of people in Orange County.

I don’t feel sorry for anyone who lost money by buying an overpriced home.  They took a risk and it didn’t pay off.  I also don’t put them down for it.  Those who take no risks lead a boring life.

There were plenty of people saying homes were overpriced, even as far back as 2002, so don’t blame the media or the car salesmen either.  There is way too much whining and complaining about people who made money when the market was good.

Ignorance should cost you as much as greed.  It is not a person’s right to own a home.  It is a large financial transaction, and often the largest they will ever make.  If they do not have the facts, when the facts are readily available, then Darwin and Ayn Rand are right….the sheeple should suffer, while those who do their homework and make better [financial, in this case] decisions should prosper.  Too many people confuse a “home” with emotions…and “rights”.  It is a large, leveraged position in the marketplace.  Buyer beware, it might not turn out like you hope.

I would go along with taxing profit on homes held for 10 years or less as regular income, unless you pruchased antother home within 2 years of your sale, allowing the gain to be rolled into your new property without tax.

SUV (truck) tax break was supposed to help…

GM and Ford, wasn’t it? Their lobbyists were behind it.

“Help Farmers” is just the selling point.

How many new pickups are used on working farms? Out of all the light trucks (pickups and SUVs) Detroit was selling?

“not everyone has a economics degree “

You do not need an economics degree to figure out you can not afford to pay $500k fo a home if you earn $70k and have a few credit cards, non working spouseand a kid or more. Common sense tells you that. How can you not know you can not afford to pay $4000 a month in housing expenses when you only bring home $5000?

I guess it depends on what kind of influence you think motives have on responsibility.

Roubini rant on this here

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/253033/american-un-beauty-the-crisis-of-the-suburbian-macmansions-and-gas-guzzling-suvs-way-of-life

The home of the guy who SHOT his wife in the face and ABDUCTED his child only to let him go in Mexico where he then threw himself in front of a truck for SUICIDE a couple weeks ago is up for sale on torres rd in Portolla Hills:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Lake-Forest/19661-Torres-Way-92679/home/4807265

Yet another example of Lender Foolishness - bought in 2005 at the peak for $1.1M financed with a $850K first and a $200K second. 

Up for sale at $750K ($214 sqft will kill neighborhood comps)

Agreed. Markets are markets, whether it be the super market or the stock market. Entering into any transaction is a choice you make that encompasses a risk-reward relationship, and if you can’t handle the risk or scope of it, you shouldn’t be doing it. Housing included.

So I think we are talking about two different people. The $100K salary person who buys a $1 million house (even with 20% down), hoping the price will always go up, is an idiot. I wouldn’t necessarily define this as “overpaying”, but rather “buying something they couldn’t afford”. You clearly meant something different by “overpaid” than how I interpreted it.

The person who bought what he could afford but will now lose his down payment because the bubble burst (and he has to sell, for whatever reason) gets some sympathy from me.

Just because you say “No ifs ands or buts” don’t make it necessarily so. Life has gray areas. That seems, to me, easy and intuitive to understand.

Well if is simply common sense then the bank shouldn’t be lending you the money in the first place - they should have MORE than common sense because they are supposed the be the experts.  goes back to my original point - the banks should be taking the bulk of the fall for this - they gave out the money so hey, to bad if people walk away.  Instead the banks get to keep the good stuff on thier books while dumping the rest on us.

I don’t buy this whole consumer beware attitude - we are responsible for educating our populace and if the only education we choose to give is ‘consumer beware’ then we are only hurting ourselves.

Priced_Out_IT_Guy -

Did you notice that the Great Wall Of Irvine house is now listed for 55K less than when it was profiled here at the end of June.

50K haircut in a few weeks.

Ouch!

Of course it punishes the savers. It also advise stupid ANALysts on convincing us fools to *buy and hold* stocks for long term due to inflation and taxation.

For those that are long on *compounding interest*, well, you all know how Uncle Sam treats that so that the fools will continue believing in the concept of *buy and hold* stocks (and that includes stock mutual funds).

Good luck trying to becoming a millionaire doing that with just $80k/yr gross income.

Sincerely,

A happy millionaire that’s currently renting

He misspelled his name. The last h was supposed to be e while the K was supposed to be L :-O

I bet the owner is chinese, and recently married because in the master bedroom, there’s heart-like chinese character on the wall which means “double happiness”. I wonder if the owner still feels happy now.

The person who bought what he could afford but will now lose his down payment because the bubble burst (and he has to sell, for whatever reason) gets some sympathy from me.

This does not make sense.  He is not losing his house because the bubble burst.  The bursting bubble did not unleash an army of house stealing ghouls.

He is losing his house because he bought that which he could not afford.  His down payment is meaningless to his ability to service the debt for 30 years.

He is losing his house because he figured housing pretty much always appreciates so it was a good gamble even though the payments were going to get tough later on.

“Well if is simply common sense then the bank shouldn’t be lending you the money in the first place - they should have MORE than common sense because they are supposed the be the experts.  goes back to my original point - the banks should be taking the bulk of the fall for this - they gave out the money so hey, to bad if people walk away.”

That really is the problem. The bubble simply would not have inflated if banks had remained responsible with their lending practices. Or more specifically, if the investors had been more careful about what they were putting their money into. The irrational beliefs and attitudes of the general populace does not become a big problem unless it is enabled by lenders. Fortunately, it is the lenders who are losing the most money this time. Perhaps they will be more cautious in the future—at least for a while…

This gets to one of the most pernicious set of beliefs in financial bubbles—there is no risk. People take on huge amounts of risk without fully understanding what they are doing. Ordinarily this ignorance alone is enough to stop cautious people from participating, but when it is glossed over with beliefs like “real estate always goes up,” the risk is heavily discounted. It isn’t until these false beliefs are proven false, painfully, that people recognize the risks they took on.

Hey Everybody, when you hear people talking about something that doesn’t sound or seem right. There is an appropriate course of action: research.

For example, the “pro-SUV” tax break was intended for big vehicles used by small business, but since only the weight of the equipment was spelled out, some people figured out a Hummer (and others) could qualify for this (which is clearly not the intent of the law.

The loophole SUV loophole was closed in 2004.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Section_179_depreciation_deduction

Likewise, the mortgage tax deduction was created as an incentive to get people to buy houses, yes, but the rationale at the time was for the betterment of the population (building equity rather than millions of Americans renting).

Like all incentives, citizens have abused this, by using an interest-only mortgage and/or buying a second home just to take advantage of the deduction.

I think this is where I disagree with some of you - I do not think the facts were readily available and in fact I think the facts were being covered up and hidden from normal people. 

Now I know very well that there were people who just stuck thier head in the sand.  But I also know there were many people - myself included - who just could not figure out what the heck was going on - and I happen to be higher educated than the majority of people and more internet savvy than the majority of people and I still had a hard time.

I am not for a bailout at all - I am just for making the ‘experts’ which are the banks and ANYONE who bought thier stock take a fall just like the homeowners who have to take a fall.

You do get a tax deduction… it’s called the standard deduction you take instead of itemizing.

Part of the reason for the home mortgage interest deduction was to put homeowners on a level playing field with landlords. If you own an investment property, you get to deduct the interest, so providing a home mortgage interest deduction, homeowners have the same advantages as landlords. Without the HMID, you could set up an LLC to buy your home and get an interest deduction that way, but it is a lot of hassle.

ouch. ouch. ouch.
I wonder if the government can do anything to turn this whole barrel of lemons into lemonade? Since they are already trying to save homeowners and bailing banks out, they must be able to do something with all these properties. Maybe some sort of government owned housing for low income folks? maybe that’s too naive of me to think that could work, but why the hell not? I mean they are just sitting there empty anyway.

Joe

Thanks for quantifying that, as now it’s indexed against the income of the person buying the property, not how the rest of the area may or may not be doing, and thus changes what ‘overpaid’ means.

If average income reported for Irvine is around $150k, then the average person should be able to afford (without overpaying) a $600k loan.

Throw in 20% down and it means the average home price should be $750k.

Obviously, that $750k will get you a vastly different amount of ‘house’ depending on where you live.

So those of us who were ‘responsible’ as movingaround put it, and are within the 4*Income… we’re just, stuck, I guess, as we basically lost our equity for no fault of ours other than having a life-event need to buy a house.

LOL omg!  David you have way too much time on your hands!

Do you do webwork?  We have a little xmas gizmo that needs a website.

“Common personal finance sense”

In a nation that runs up credit card debt at a personal and national level without the blink of an eye, I object to it being called ‘common’. :D

if anything, those with the sense to not go into debt are the ones losing out on some great deals here.  well, sense and morals, I guess.

“He is not losing his house because the bubble burst.  The bursting bubble did not unleash an army of house stealing ghouls.

He is losing his house because he bought that which he could not afford.  His down payment is meaningless to his ability to service the debt for 30 years.”

you just said afford = income.  I know what my current income is.  I have some idea of whether my job is stable or not.

But if the economy takes a dive and the company goes bust and I need to find a new job… suddenly, I overpaid?

Or are you saying that I should’ve expected to be laid off and that I wouldn’t have my income to depend on to service that 30-year fix?

From what I can tell, most people don’t have more than 3 months salary in savings.

So maybe your algorithm above should include a
SAVINGS = 12_TMIES_MONTHLY_INCOME in addition.

just wondering

check out these stunning losses:

34 HONEY LOCUST, Irvine, CA 92606
List Price: $799,999
Last Sale:  09/19/06
Sales Price:  $1,141,500
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Honey-Locust-92606/home/7201195

157 CHURCH PLACE, Irvine, CA 92602
List Price: $649,900
Last Sale:  01/30/07
Sales Price:  $815,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/157-Church-Pl-92602/home/4793127

The second SFH is in vicinity of IPO’s condo. Hopefully he got the money in the bank. This one is by far a better deal, if there is a knife catcher out there.

I’ve asked before and I’ll ask again.

Can IR overlay what actually has happened over his chart showing the projected fall of median prices.

Bet he was overly bullish and the drops are worse.

Also, while I’m wishing, I wish that someone would redo that Case Shiller rollercoaster thing.  Previously, it stopped in about 2005, while the coaster was at the top of a superhumoungous rise, just waiting to fall.

Collateral damage. What else can I say. I was part of the homeowners that bought close to peak as well (2005 to be exact in the Bay Area). Luckily, I sold last year with only a few K loss. My wife didn’t wanna sell that fast since we’re leaving the country and that she would prefer to stay until then. At the time, we didn’t know when we’re leaving and so my wife was not that eager to sell. However, I was adamant about selling because I saw the damage that RE was doing to the rest of the country, including Irvine. Sure, there are a lot more kool-aid drinking folks in the Bay Area than Irvine (trust me on this), but I saw the writing on the wall.

Well, fast forward 1 year later, the complex where we used to have the townhouse have multiple homes that are selling at an avg of $50k below the market price last year and are still on the market. I guess they haven’t fully digested the kool-aid intake from a few years back.

The “fact” that there may be a housing bubble has been debated in the media for the last 4-5 years. Of course if your only media outlet is the 5 o’clock news or the local newspaper, maybe that’s why you missed it.  This site is one of many outlets that have espoused the contrarian view that housing was overpriced and would eventually fall.

Part of the problem is that even though there was plenty of information in the media that housing prices were climbing at an unsustainable rate, most people chose not to believe it. Saying there was a bubble that would one day “pop” usually opened you to ridicule.

“SHOOT FROM TOP TO BOTTOM” ... unfortunate choice of words.

You must be a democrat. Privatize profit, socialize losses.

I was wondering the other day if anybody has ever done a study of homeowners or prospective homeowners, to find out what percentage make a rational calculation of how much house they can afford, versus how many make a mainly or purely emotional decision based upon what they feel they ‘deserve’ or what the realtor or mortgage broker talks them into.

Just a hunch, I would bet something less than 10% who actually crunch the numbers and stick to them. So long as financial innumeracy is epidemic, we’ll continue to have bubbles like this… nothing like a herd of sheep to bring out the wolves.

Stunning in real numbers, at least the Honey property, but not really if we follow the rational thinking theme of the current posts. The now apparently extreme prices paid before are inflated through outright fraud. Quite a few people are sitting pretty with tons of cash in the bank or overseas with money basically stolen through cash back and HELOC equity skimming schemes.

It’s these participants in the bubble, along with appraisers, brokers, and other others in the commission food chain, that really should be exposed, ridiculed, and imprisoned.  The scorn on all the uninformed and ignorant (ignorance is just a lack understanding) “buyers” really is misplaced. I had a coworker who was a very sincere and well meaning peak bubble purchaser; in speaking with her, I could tell she just had no clue what she was getting herself into. She had bought the “refinance later” thinking hook, line and sinker. If anything she and others, such as the strawberry pickers getting 500k loans,  should be shown sympathy rather than scorn.

“I don’t feel sorry for anyone who lost money by buying an overpriced home.  They took a risk and it didn’t pay off.  I also don’t put them down for it.  Those who take no risks lead a boring life. “

I reserve the right to revisit this in about 5 years to see if you still feel the same.  It’s looking more and more like the housing bubble which is bursting is going to lead to a severe recession and strong inflation.

If we’re lucky, we get just a recession and inflation.

I like your blog. Its a great read! Expect me back really soon.