I’d still prefer to rent then to own this very ‘average’ appearing apartment, for whatever that thought is worth.
I think this is one of the first properties profiled that is close to being affordable, that is the income requirement is now under $100k (assuming $79k down, which is still huge) which puts it into something that average irvine household could buy.
Posted by lawyerliz on 05/15/08 at 05:10 AM
What about non-astute observations?
Was at a hearing yesterday asking for an extension on a foreclosure (granted). Plaintiff’s atty didn’t show up. Waited a long time & talked to an atty who said he represented
developers.
He said he thought the Miami and Ft L towers would eventurally go for 10 cents on the dollar. Said the banks had stopped funding some.
Said he didn’t know where to park his money.
Then I went down to the law library to research stuff on a really interesting foreclosure, with lots of fraud & forgeries, and allegations the notary wasn’t there etc.
Posted by Party Pooper on 05/15/08 at 05:57 AM
I think comparing 2 houses to a split in BJ would be more appropriate. People thought they had 2 Aces showing & spilt each, when it turns out they were holding 2 8s instead against a dealer BJ.
Posted by NoWow!way on 05/15/08 at 06:23 AM
I wonder how much organized crime has been playing out in the real estate market here. I had read stories in the past about a group of russian mob members and some mobs from the middle east involved in fraud and theft in the real estate market.
There are still plenty of new “forclosures can make you rich!” campaigns on television, if you just flip through the channels.
Posted by George8 on 05/15/08 at 06:29 AM
How much rent can these two 2/2 get? $2000? If so, the asking price of $359k is not too unreasonable.
Posted by Chris on 05/15/08 at 06:34 AM
I was talking about 22 Daffodil a while back and here you are talking about it now, IR. $359k is the asking price but I think it’ll go higher. I asked my agent to bid it at $300k but she told me that there are 30 bid for this property (not sure if that is true or not...we’ll see).
It’ll rent out easily at $2k/mo since IAC is renting out 2b/2b apt nearby with special for, I believe (quote me if I’m wrong), $1900/mo. If you put all cash on this property, the $24k yearly rental income minus HOA and prop tax (around $7.5k) will net you around 5.5% return on $300k. That’s a pretty impressive return with upside potential come after 2012.
It probably doesn’t make a lot of sense for folks who reads this blog but Oak Creek is probably one of the most desirable location in Irvine (well, at least my wife and I liked it when we were there).
I have been reading the stories posted on this blog for several months now and I continue to be amazed.
In 2002 I sold my house in Sarasota, FL for $206K. The Sarasota house was a 3/2 w/2 car attached and caged pool. Bought my current residence in Jackson, TN for $192K. TN house is 4/2.5 w/3 car attached and 1 acre of land. 3000 SF, so I bought at $64/SF.
In the last six years that has gone up to maybe $75/SF. Maybe not because the market is slow right now. So I look at pricing like $300/SF and am just astounded.
Chris—towards the bottom of the housing market you should do better than a 5.5% cash on cash return. You also need to account for maintenance and management. Some banks will give you a 5% rate on a CD, still.
Posted by mav on 05/15/08 at 07:10 AM
Irvine Renter,
This is what I think of when I read this post
http://youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin when the dealins done.
Posted by Jed Clampett on 05/15/08 at 07:29 AM
It’s the Irvine Housing Blog. It’s about Irvine, California, where people who don’t want to live in Tennessee live.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 05/15/08 at 07:36 AM
If you look at the Case-Shiller index and overlay inflation from 1994 (calculated risk blog had this graph), then the index should currently be the same as it was in 2000. Well, this unit sold in 2001 for 269K. At $1700 net rent after HOA, which is being optimistic in a time of floplords (1900 IAC rent - 200 HOA), the GRM works out to 160:1 based on the 2001 selling price.
Given that 1994 was not the bottom of the market in real terms, I think we will see prices below this before we are done.
National City is offering 5% on 48m CDs over $10k. The company is on shaky ground, so I would not recommend putting more than the FDIC insurance limit of $100k into National City.
I’ll add these two properties to my escrow tracking and we’ll see where they close at. Looks like they got into escrow very shortly after list… Surprising with a short.
Posted by Alan on 05/15/08 at 08:10 AM
I like the “quite” interior - something essential for every interior IMHO. The fact that the custom paint and carpet are deemed worthy of 2 mentions in such a short paragraph leads me to wonder just how short of features this place really is.
Wouldn’t it be better if there was no one above and no one below, rather than “or”? But for $360K I guess you can’t expect too much.
Posted by Carl on 05/15/08 at 08:22 AM
I agree about Oak Creek. It is darn convenient and centrally located. Lots o’ parks and a great community feel. Kind of like Stepford~No, seriously we lived there when we first moved to OC and found ourselves going back again and again because of all the great things around there.
Posted by caveat emptor on 05/15/08 at 08:24 AM
Sorry, but I just have to say, your sentence is EXACTLY the attitude that makes people think 300 dollars a square foot is perfectly reasonable. It isn’t - no way, no how, not now, not before, not later, not ever. Sorry, but it’s true and the sooner you (and EVERYONE in Irvine) starts living with that mantra, the sooner prices will return to reasonable levels because no buyers means NO SALES UNTIL PRICES ARE REASONABLE FOR A PLACE TO LIVE. A house, in Irvine or anywhere, is JUST A PLACE TO PARK YOURSELF NOTHING MORE OR LESS THAN THAT. It is emotional attachments to places and things that cause this type of thinking, this irrational NEED to live here and only here as nowhere else could possibly be as good. I’ve been to Tennessee, I think it’s pretty there and the people seem warm and welcoming. Probably a good place to live (I just don’t choose it myself).
(Yes, I live in Irvine - no I’m not a bitter, angry renter - I’m just smart enough to recognize that four square walls and a roof aren’t worth 300 a square foot.)
Posted by Carl on 05/15/08 at 08:33 AM
Is there some Realtor trick going on?
The first is listed as taking backups but is clearly a short sale. Why are they taking backups if the bank has the offer? If a backup comes in greater than the first, who wins? Where’s the good faith?
Also, compare this to what happened with 51 Momento where it went to auction and then was removed from the auction list (after auction) and appeared back in the MLS a week later as “taking backups”
A couple of things occur to me....Someone is approaching trustees and saying something like “I can’t bring cash to the auction but I will pay a premium” or These places are selling far below current list for other bank properties and there is a way to keep them out of the MLS for an extended period with this taking backups routine. Maybe something I haven’t thought of?
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 08:36 AM
“It’ll rent out easily at $2k/mo since IAC is renting out 2b/2b apt nearby with special for, I believe (quote me if I’m wrong), $1900/mo.”
Agreed. Keep in mind, the IAC specials involve incentives that expire (first and/or last months’ rent free, 10% off market rate, etc.). i.e. The $1,900 rental rate should be treated just like a teaser rate on an ARM. The rental rate will jump significantly after the first year and continue to increase annually.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 08:42 AM
If you’re married, $200k is FDIC insured in joint accounts.
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 09:01 AM
Sounds like a good deal compare to other banks, but 48 months is too long of a commitment for me. I need the money in about 2 or 3 yrs, when I feel the RE should be bottom-out then, and my boys need a better middle school. Any other bank with shorter term?
Posted by buster on 05/15/08 at 09:10 AM
IndyMac comes close. Funded a CD there last Saturday at 4.15%. Open on the internet, get a confirmation number, walk into branch and get your CD. For the best rates, check www.bankrate.com. Good for mortgages and credit cards, too.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 09:10 AM
Parts of rural Tennessee are stunning, and Nashville and Memphis are both great “small” cities. Plus, I loves me some BBQ. I’d live in Tennessee if my job could take me there. Chris, enjoy your acre for $75/SF. Sounds like you got it made.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 09:11 AM
Well said, mav.
Posted by buster on 05/15/08 at 09:13 AM
Actually, the insurance is $100,000 per joint owner, so add your kid, parents, etc. But it can be tricky because the total is $100,000 per person per institution (not per account). IRAs are counted separately. So don’t think you can just go around opening different types of accounts at the same institution and increase your FDIC insurance limit.
What ever it is, in this world you can’t trust anyone.
This row house is worth about $189.000.00
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 09:57 AM
Allow me to illustrate how ridiculous your statement regarding “worth” is. A prime borrower could put 5% down ($10k +/-) and finance $179k at a likely blended rate of 7% creating a $1,190 monthly mtg payment. Assuming the cost of ins, taxes, & HOAs is balanced by the tax shift, and that this unit would rent for minimally $2,000, the buyer would save roughly $800 monthly be purchasing this unit as opposed to renting it.
But you’re probably right - it’s “worth” about $189k.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 09:58 AM
Chattanooga’s gorgeous too, if you like small cities with rivers and mountains. Too bad it has a mini-bubble (way way too many recent building mcmansion projects). Still totally within reason if you’re used to East Coast overpaying.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 10:01 AM
You don’t have to assume 20% down; the secondary market hasn’t begun to require that much… yet.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 10:08 AM
“Assuming the cost of ins, taxes, & HOAs is balanced by the tax shift,”
That’s quite an assumption. Remember that your “tax deduction” has to exceed the normal “standard deduction” for any benefit to begin kicking in. On a $179k loan 7% APR is only 12.53k so you’re only getting a little over 2k off your income, which even at 28% only nets you $670 per year, that’s not going to cover ins. taxes and HOA. Besides-which I don’t know about this whole 30year mortgage assumption on low-end properties that are going to deflate. If they really do get to fundamentals 15year mortgages are a significantly better deal (at the moment as much a 1% APR off, plus the whole not paying more interest than principle over the life of the loan)
(sorry about the fast and loose with my own numbers)
Posted by dayday on 05/15/08 at 10:31 AM
Funny, I was just looking at this property the other day. Relatively, it is a reasonable deal but still has a bit ways to go. How low will this property like this go for?
Posted by Blueberry Pie on 05/15/08 at 10:35 AM
The emotional attachment is why people are willing to pay a premium.
Some people like to live in a city, so they are willing to pay a premium to have an apartment in Manhattan.
Some people like the beach, so they are willing to pay a premium to live within walking distance of the beach.
Some people like warm, dry weather, so they are willing to pay a premium to live in Irvine over Tennessee.
Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 05/15/08 at 10:36 AM
I’m with you. I’d rather rent this pile than own it.
I’ll horde my 80K down payment and wait for lower prices.
Sadly, this dump is in my price range as a first time buyer. If this is all I get for making in the top 90% of my age group, working my ass off, and committing to 30 years of slavery, well, I’ll probably end up as Chris’ neighbor in Tennessee!
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 10:45 AM
That’s a good point!
But if the buyer spends 2.5x his/her income on this place, that would put them near $75k in income. Because we live in a high tax state, an individual would pay roughly $5k and a couple nearly $3k in state income taxes. Add that amount to the mtg interest and your itemized deductions likely exceed the standard.
Lot’s of assumptions being made here; fair to say though, that whatever your tax situation, owning this unit @ $189k would be cheaper than renting it.
Posted by Blueberry Pie on 05/15/08 at 10:46 AM
How long would it take an $89k household income to save up $72k?
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 10:57 AM
Depends on how aggressive you are, and rather you have car payments, and other expense.
For my family of 7, I can survive on $89K and still save about $3-5k/yr and eat pizza and instant noodle everyday.
For a couple with only one kid, they can save up 72K in two or three years. Again, it depends a lot of lifestyle, etc.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 11:10 AM
another good point.
I should remind myself that I’m already half way to the standard deduction with state taxes. So for this price a little over half the interest will be tax deductible (i.e. above the standard for a couple filing jointly)
(not going to think about the alternative minimum tax, just going to avoid that for now...)
Posted by houseonlegs on 05/15/08 at 11:28 AM
It will be interesting to see what these do sell at, put ‘em on the board Ipo.....
Posted by 25w100k+ on 05/15/08 at 11:30 AM
I would buy either of these properties. If Daffodil falls out of escrow i’ll make an offer.
I think i’d make an offer for the west irvine one, but i’d have to see it first.
Posted by Red on 05/15/08 at 11:42 AM
Good call, Priced_Out_IT_Guy.
It really is time for many of us to move elsewhere. Quality of life can be much better elsewhere, both environmentally and financially.
My company can no longer hire engineers to move here from out of state, they take one look at home prices and bolt, even with salaries 50% higher than back home. Why live in a massive throng of humanity with hellish commutes and obscene home prices? Do we really need a beach sunset that much?
Posted by mmg on 05/15/08 at 11:48 AM
Hey, caveat, watch what you’re saying, this is IRVINE, a very very special place where minimum wage is $100 per hour
Posted by Vik on 05/15/08 at 11:55 AM
Its going to be more like $1800-$1900. At least that would have been the case 6 months ago when I was in the rental market. For $2200 I got a 2br/2ba recently built in Quail Hill, 2 car garage, stainless steel appl, granite counters, 1700 sq ft, etc.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 12:15 PM
The time has come for virtual commuting. Then we could all make OC salaries while living on one acre lots near Chris in Tennessee.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 12:16 PM
To live in or as an investment?
Posted by macndub on 05/15/08 at 12:47 PM
National City, like WaMu, may not make it. Hence the high rates. Now you can say, “Hey, it’s insured!” Then think about what your life would be like waiting for your money while the bankruptcy winds through.
No thanks. Just because it’s insured, doesn’t mean that depositors don’t need to be thinking about counterparty risk.
Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 05/15/08 at 12:51 PM
My folks lived in Teleco, right outside of Knoxville, and had a nice view of the Little TN River. It is the best place I’ve ever water-skiid: smooth, glassy river with 80F water temperature. Very green country, but they had to run the AC all summer long - too humid.
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 12:54 PM
When was the last time that Neville Mariner and The Academy of St. Martin on the Field visited Nashville?
How about Christoph von Dohnányi with the Philharmonia?
Do you have an L&L;Hawaiian BBQ in Tennessee?
Posted by LC on 05/15/08 at 12:57 PM
Do people realize that you can get over 3000 sq/ft new houses over the hill in Corona for $359k? I am sorry, but Irvine is not that different from Corona. Eventually, people are going to realize the idiocy of paying too much. People who look at this kind of place do not have money to burn.
Posted by hasekho on 05/15/08 at 01:03 PM
I was offered a job in Orange County last week and when the headhunter told me the salary, I about died laughing. No wonder they were “aggressively” seeking a candidate for the job. No sane person would take a job for 100,000 in that part of the country.
It’s all personal preferences. I’d sacrifice for Chicago but not for anything with a beach. I feel for the high tech employers out there who need people with a specialized skill set. It’s got to be hard to lure people to that real estate market!
Posted by LC on 05/15/08 at 01:03 PM
Nashville is known as Music City. Really, it is world famous and quite civilized. But Chattanooga has a smog problems.
Posted by LC on 05/15/08 at 01:09 PM
I know that it is possible to save $30k/yr making $60k/yr.
Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 05/15/08 at 01:14 PM
Yeah, engineers of all people are capable of analyzing the financial suicide of moving to California for an extra twenty grand per year. Meanwhile your taxes increase and your quality of life plummets 75%.
It was and still is a no brainer for highly skilled professionals in IT, web design, software development, and other high tech industries to move out of California.
This mass exodus doesn’t just apply to current residents. Even other highly skilled professions, such as tax accountants (which good ones are in high demand), one of which I knew moved to California without analyzing the financial situation, soon found it impossible to get by and moved back to the mid west.
I myself am considering Oregon or Colorado. There are so many beautiful places in the United States to live with higher standards of living.
Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 05/15/08 at 01:20 PM
There are still expenses to consider to virtual commuting such as flying in to your job site every month or two, hotel costs, etc. If you are a software engineer managing a team of people, virtual commuting is not an option.
I’m not trying to dismiss virtual commuting. But it still isn’t practical for a lot of jobs that require lots of social interaction, meetings and planning (what true IT nerd wants those anyway??)
I work from home 3-4 days per week and let me tell you, it rocks!
One thing to note is that once the internet evolves and virtual commuting becomes even better, those guys in Tennessee like Chris will be undercutting our salaries in OC, and we’ll have yet another force of economics telling us to abandon the beach!
Just think, there will be massive communities in the Mid West of pasty white nerds…
Posted by 25w100k+ on 05/15/08 at 01:25 PM
To live in for now.
Posted by 25w100k+ on 05/15/08 at 01:25 PM
and then i’d put in granite counter tops and flip it in six months for $$$
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 01:25 PM
My stocks and 403(b) are doing well either.
Sounds like I probably want to use the money to pay off my mortgage when my CD at IndyMac matured instead of trying to get it roll over as another CD.
Or I will go to JCPenny’s and buy some 14K gold.... just kidding.
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 01:26 PM
oops… meant to say *not* doing well.
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 01:31 PM
Must be single, and live like a graduate student in his/her parent house to do that.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 01:36 PM
I would agree that it’s not too different, but are there not subtleties that make a big difference on where you want to live? How much of a premium you should pay is the question.
Posted by momopi on 05/15/08 at 01:47 PM
Both properties are in decent neighborhoods. However there are some caveats.
If you plan to buy the first one in West Irvine, be warned that street parking is very tight. At night even the pool area is packed with cars. So if you live by yourself and intend to use the garage for parking, that’s fine. But if you want to have a party and invite friends over, parking sucks.
For the 2nd property, the Oak Creek community is very nice but that condo is priced lower because of its very close proximity to the 405 FWY. If you go across Alton to the other half of the community, comparable properties would cost more for the benefit of distance to the 405 FWY. I think there’s some power lines toward Sand Canyon Ave area, though they did leave lots of space for them.
As for Corona, I might consider buying investment properties there, but won’t live there. Currently I live within walking distance to work in Irvine. I used to work in downtown LA and spent 3 hours daily on the commute alone, will not repeat.
If my job allowed me to telecommute, I’d still maintain and residence in coastal area of CA, and live part time overseas in places like Boracay. I’d um… buy a plot of beach-front land, build a 2 story residence. Live on 2nd floor and use 1st floor to run an internet cafe, hire some cute girls as employees.
If you’d prefer to stay in the mid-west and live among single white male IT nerds, well, go ahead. You won’t find me there.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 02:05 PM
“Irvine is not that different from Corona”
Uh, you are kidding, right? Have you ever been to Corona or Irvine?
If you have been to both and the difference is not apparent, then perhaps you should consider one of those $359k gems over the hill. And hey, if you promise not to call the cops then maybe your next door neighbor will give you free Meth for life.
Posted by rkp on 05/15/08 at 02:17 PM
Tonye’s point is very valid. I have been to TN a lot and agree that it has wonderful things to offer but you just can’t compare pricing in another market.
Posted by rkp on 05/15/08 at 02:20 PM
My parents had money in Lincoln and it was super easy for them to get it via FDIC. I dont think its a big deal.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 02:22 PM
I was a little too timid to get into the many “cultural” differences.
Posted by rkp on 05/15/08 at 02:30 PM
Well said CK! What’s up with everyone comparing cities today. Nashville, Chattanooga, Corona...etc.
Every city is different and more importantly, its all about supply and demand. There are more people looking to live in this area than Corona, etc and hence prices will have a premium. Is the product inherently worth more? I don’t think so but if this is where you want to live due to family and work like in my case, then I have to accept that I will have competition at certain price points and I can’t keep thinking about how much house I can get in Chattanooga for the same $.
“There are so many beautiful places in the United States to live with higher standards of living.”
Exactly, and this is apparently lost in a lot of the arrogance that pops up around here...mostly by bulls who talk about OC as a “world-class destination” (it’s nice and all, but let’s be serious) and try to justify bubble prices. They don’t believe anyone would willingly leave OC to live anywhere else...I say if you’re a happy person, you will be happy just about anywhere.
At one of my previous employers we ran into this problem - we literally could not find anyone for a job we had posted. The supervisor told me flat out that he wasn’t surprised, because “nobody in their right mind” could take that job and live here for what they were able to pay (which in most other parts of the country wouldn’t be half bad).
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 02:47 PM
“Every city is different and more importantly, its all about supply and demand”.
This is the most astute observation I have seen all day. Thank you for that, rkp. There have been some wacko comparisons to Irvine on this board in the past, but Chattanooga has to take the cake.
Posted by r€nato on 05/15/08 at 02:55 PM
I too think that Irvine/OC is always overvalued, even in best of times… BUT there’s a reason they say “Location, location, location”.
I’m just smart enough to recognize that four square walls and a roof aren’t worth 300 a square foot.
So anyone who doesn’t eat off the value menu at McDonald’s is an idiot? After all, a hamburger is just two buns and a patty of meat, right? And anyone who doesn’t drive a Yaris is an idiot, after all it’s just four tires and an engine.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 02:59 PM
I would argue that the arrogance is from the people from (name a town) come to IHB and pound their chest about how their corner of dirt is so superior to Irvine because it costs less. That is pointless. I don’t live in Irvine because of some back of the napkin calculation on how much house I could buy in BFE --- I live here because of family, friends, career, and a culture and lifestyle which suit my family. So that’s all fine and dandy that somebody likes their $75 psf ranch in Tennessee. I could really care less how much it costs in Knoxville or any other “ville”. Now if your town ends with a “Viejo”, then lets talk....Because this is the IRVINE housing blog, and MV and AV are good comps.
Don’t we all like where we live, and think it is the best place on earth? If you live in Irvine and don’t think it is great, then why waste your time and money here --- there are a lot of cheaper places out there.
Posted by madhaus on 05/15/08 at 03:03 PM
There’s a lot of this thinking in Northern California, too. But what’s keeping Silicon Valley prices up is the sheer number of people in the industry—they have the critical mass and the knowledge to keep new startups coming online and the Venture Capital money is still there to fund it.
I’m not sure if Orange County can do the same. What is the main economic engine of OC now that the funny mortgage money sector is gone? LA has several sectors that need top talent, but how much of it is in OC as well?
By the way, I figure SV is 2-3 years behind you guys and we’ll have our crash too. At this point 2/3-3/4 of Santa Clara Valley zips are down from last year and I’m seeing prices in some places hitting 2004 levels. Certain cities are holding value, but how much longer can they stay up there?
Is Irvine comparable to something like Palo Alto or is it more like Sunnyvale?
Posted by Hormiguero on 05/15/08 at 03:03 PM
maybe that should be rephrased to ‘which banks which haven’t had their deposit rating cut by Fitch in the past week and are currently worth more than a few hundred million bucks...’
Posted by r€nato on 05/15/08 at 03:06 PM
Yeah well, you know, try telling certain folks that people are overpaying for the dream of living ‘the California lifestyle’ and you get flamed for being some poor dumbshit unsophisticated yokel from Phoenix or Tennessee or wherever.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 03:10 PM
More like Sunnyvale. The best comp to Irvine in the Bay Area I can think of is San Ramon.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 03:19 PM
No, renato. You get flamed for those comparisons because they are pointless. That’s great that its so cheap in Phoenix or Tennessee, I ain’t mad at ya. But if your life is not there, then why should we give a damn?
How far would it get me if I dropped an offer on 2,400 sq ft house in Westpark this weekend for $200k, and pulled out a list of recently sold comps in Biloxi, Mississippi to justify my price. What do you think the chances of me getting into escrow would be?
Posted by Dave Doolin on 05/15/08 at 03:43 PM
I was thinking maybe Bali.
Not entirely joking here.
Posted by Iblis on 05/15/08 at 03:57 PM
Tonye is right. We are all hopeless provincials here in Irvine. Let’s all move to Manhattan or Paris.
Posted by mmg on 05/15/08 at 04:33 PM
CK-->How far would it get me if I dropped an offer on 2,400 sq ft house in Westpark this weekend for $200k.
How about you offer 1800k so you are sure to get some where exagerations to both extremes wont get us any where. how about looking at incomes(not the fantasy ones ), rents, other fundamentals etc. not some wishing fantasy and IRVINE is SPECIAL BS, Irvine was special prior to the bubble a few years back. :(
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 05/15/08 at 04:37 PM
I telecommute because most of the engineers I work with are in Shanghai. Anybody know of tax free havens (preferably with good surf) between here and there? When I was working with a group in Toronto, I was thinking of moving to a Caribbean island. Hawaii doesn’t work because the cost of living (housing, food, taxes, etc...) is just the same AND you have to pay for private schools.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 04:50 PM
Twits
You’ve obviously never been there. Signal Mountain, all the other mountains are gorgeous. My MIL just built a 4 bedroom 4 bathroom totally custom home with a huge lot backing up to a large church land holding (i.e. will not be built on anytime in the near future) for $325k. Yes, I understand this is not a comp. Fine. But (a) try to tell my MIL that and (b) try to live with a tiny 1970’s townhouse as the best we can do with the same money in D.C. I’m sorry, it is too relevant.
Chattanooga has minor smog problems but nothing on the scale of southern California, and I have never seen anything more similar to the mountains near Stanford than the area outside Chattanooga. Now the total lack of useful public education is indeed a serious drawback, and I’m sorry but the “no income tax” thing is a freakin scam, you pay out way way way more in sales taxes than I ever did in income tax in Massachusetts. But. Be serious, if you’ve never been there, never eaten the cuisine, never gone to River Bend or Bonneroo, then STFU.
Posted by bigd on 05/15/08 at 04:51 PM
Irvine is the same as Corona? LOL!
I also hope Chris enjoys his location. Offer anyone living in Irvine even 50/sq.ft. to move to Tennessee and see if they’ll accept.
Posted by Blueberry Pie on 05/15/08 at 04:56 PM
Naw....he’s making $60k. Taking home $45k. Putting $30k in the bank. Living on $15k. $24k of that $15k goes towards rent.
Isn’t that how everybody afforded these houses the past 4 years - fuzzy math?
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 05:14 PM
There’s country music and then there’s listening to Beethoven’s Fifth by the Philharmonia from our mid hall seats in the new Segestrom Hall in Costa Mesa.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 05:16 PM
Relax, Cara. I was not trying to say that TN is a bad place --- just that comparing it to Irvine is rather pointless. Most people who live in California are well aware of how far their buck would go elsewhere, we don’t live in a complete vacuum. Yet, we choose to pay the price for any number of reasons. If somebody living here does not like it, by all means they should not let the door hit them in the ass…
Posted by Chris on 05/15/08 at 05:16 PM
Thanks Ipop. Please keep us posted as I’d like to see the final agreed price on this so that I can gauge on the comp status of Oak Creek condos.
Of course, this may change come summer this year when all the final subprime resets are happening....we’ll see
Posted by Chris on 05/15/08 at 05:20 PM
Take it easy Caveat. If you’re so emotional about Irvine with its current state, I think you may end up in the hospital with a heart attack if you’re in Silicon Valley like myself currently.
Want outrageous RE price? Come here and laugh yourself off.
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 05:20 PM
As much as you will find hicks in Manhattan, Paris and Irvine as well as Tennessee…
The fact is that the number of people in LA/OC is way over the critical mass to present a viable market for world class orchestras.
So while the vast majoriy of hicks in OC will never subscribe to the OC Philharmonic, there are enough of us around to make it commercially viable for world class orchestras to travel to LA/OC and put two performances.
They may do this in NYC, perhaps Chicago, for sure Tokyo, Paris.... but unfortunately they can’s afford to go to SF, Dallas, etc… I think I have ddescribed this earlier.
Indeed, all of the places where such orchestras will play are very expensive places to live because a lot of people live there.
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 05:28 PM
Nope.... what will happen is that those development jobs will move to China for real… then all the marketing and integration guys will live by the Coast.
There’ll be less of us anyhow. That’s the future.
Posted by QuailHillTony on 05/15/08 at 05:41 PM
Actually, I compare Irvine with Palo Alto or Cupertino. I moved here from Sunnyvale in 2004, specifically because houses were significantly cheaper here than in Bay Area.
For us, the issue is the schools.
Posted by edW on 05/15/08 at 06:06 PM
In addition to the quite interior I assume the barber carpet comes with some leavings from the haircut. And just for my information base how high is tree line in Irvine?
Posted by edW on 05/15/08 at 06:18 PM
nicely baited hook reels in the fish - cunning.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 06:18 PM
C’mon guys, leave TN alone. The original post was just expressing some sticker shock:
“I have been reading the stories posted on this blog for several months now and I continue to be amazed....In the last six years that has gone up to maybe $75/SF....So I look at pricing like $300/SF and am just astounded.”
I haven’t seen anyone offering an argument that Irvine should cost X because Tennessee does. Now, one of our friends from Phoenix used to do that, not so much any more. But there’s nothing wrong with saying other parts of the country are nice—some of them are. So is Irvine. To each his own.
I once had a conversation with an exec at Wells Fargo during the bubble. He said the hardest part of managing his mortgage underwriting center was that it was located in the midwest. The underwriters, who all lived in the midwest, kept rejecting California loan applications because (1) they couldn’t fathom that the comps accurately reflected the market, and (2) they didn’t understand how a house on one side of a street could sell for twice the amount of the house on the other side of the street (view). In hindsight, maybe the underwriters were right, at least on (1). But I’m not surprised that folks from other parts of the country come here and are amazed at what we pay.
Posted by Joseph on 05/15/08 at 06:23 PM
Let’s get some perspective here--this always seems to happen with you Irvinites. Irvine is not even close to being in the same class as Chicago, L.A., or Manhattan. In fact, Irvine is more comparable to Nashville than it is to Los Angeles. This is exactly why Irvine is so f*’ed up: you all have this imaginary sense of being different, when to us Angelenos you’re simply a concrete slab of boredom.
Posted by Party Pooper on 05/15/08 at 06:34 PM
you’ve never been to tennessee.
it’s actually cool most of the time, but very humid.
very green & great trees & lots of lakes.
Posted by Party Pooper on 05/15/08 at 06:52 PM
“...would argue that the arrogance is from the people from (name a town) ... how much house I could buy in BFE --- ... that’s all fine and dandy that somebody likes their $75 psf ranch in Tennessee. I could really care less how much it costs in Knoxville or any other “ville”. Now if your town ends with a “Viejo”, then lets talk....”
This BLOG is disintegrating into the abyss. Many of you need to take a breath and be a little less defensive. After all, there is too much to celebrate about all of America today. Irvine has always been thought of as being filled with wannabe Newporters, nothing more than James Irvine’s Ranch raped by profiteers that care only about maximizing profits and nothing about the county’s rich history. I was born here 50 years ago and have seen it all. Irvine is not the best place to live even in Orange County. Most all of the wonderfull things Orange County has to offer are in other cities.
Posted by Cal's Caddy on 05/15/08 at 07:21 PM
I really enjoy this blog. It is entertaining and quite informative. But some days it is challenging when the daily blog deviates so greatly from the discussion of the featured property or topic. I think it is great that people from all over come, read and partake in the conversation, but this blog is about Irvine Housing. I own and live in Irvine. I plan to stay in Irvine (or maybe Tustin Ranch) for my next home. I would enjoy to read and debate about properties in relative proximity. So although interesting stories and anecdotes about housing in other parts of the country may have value, but not necessarily on this blog. Maybe there is a “US Housing Blog” somewhere.
It is not that Irvine is better or “special”. If I go to a Foo Fighters concert and Michael Buble comes out singing, I might be a little disappointed. I may find both interesting and entertaining, but it’s probably not what I was looking for. So it would be nice if the astute observers could keep posts within some general relevance to Irvine Housing.
When I hear of an opinion that “$300 per sqft” is way overpriced, I remember the cost of Marlboro cigarettes when I lived in Costa Rica. They cost 100 colones. about $0.65 US. The same exact cigarettes that sell for much more in the US. Why? Because that’s what the market would bear. Cost is relative.
Where are we going, take alook at this new home @ $113 a square...lookout below!
Price: $389,900
Beds: 3
Baths: 2.75
Sq. Ft.: 3,455
$/Sq. Ft.: $113
Lot Size: 0.39 Acres
Lot: 10,000-19,999 Sq. Ft.
Property Type Detached, Single Family Residence
Year Built: 2006
Stories: 2 Level
View: Hills
Area: Riverside
County: Riverside
MLS#: I08070643
Source: MRMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 2 days
BANK OWNED, LAKE HILLS AREA, LARGE HOME W/ VIEWS, GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, OFFICE COULD BE 4TH BEDROOM, FORMAL DINING AREA, BALCONY OFF MASTER BEDROOM, NEEDS MINOR COSMETIC TUNE-UP, SUBMIT OFFERS
Posted by alan on 05/15/08 at 09:32 AM
I’d still prefer to rent then to own this very ‘average’ appearing apartment, for whatever that thought is worth.
I think this is one of the first properties profiled that is close to being affordable, that is the income requirement is now under $100k (assuming $79k down, which is still huge) which puts it into something that average irvine household could buy.
Posted by lawyerliz on 05/15/08 at 05:10 AM
What about non-astute observations?
Was at a hearing yesterday asking for an extension on a foreclosure (granted). Plaintiff’s atty didn’t show up. Waited a long time & talked to an atty who said he represented
developers.
He said he thought the Miami and Ft L towers would eventurally go for 10 cents on the dollar. Said the banks had stopped funding some.
Said he didn’t know where to park his money.
Then I went down to the law library to research stuff on a really interesting foreclosure, with lots of fraud & forgeries, and allegations the notary wasn’t there etc.
Posted by Party Pooper on 05/15/08 at 05:57 AM
I think comparing 2 houses to a split in BJ would be more appropriate. People thought they had 2 Aces showing & spilt each, when it turns out they were holding 2 8s instead against a dealer BJ.
Posted by NoWow!way on 05/15/08 at 06:23 AM
I wonder how much organized crime has been playing out in the real estate market here. I had read stories in the past about a group of russian mob members and some mobs from the middle east involved in fraud and theft in the real estate market.
There are still plenty of new “forclosures can make you rich!” campaigns on television, if you just flip through the channels.
Posted by George8 on 05/15/08 at 06:29 AM
How much rent can these two 2/2 get? $2000? If so, the asking price of $359k is not too unreasonable.
Posted by Chris on 05/15/08 at 06:34 AM
I was talking about 22 Daffodil a while back and here you are talking about it now, IR. $359k is the asking price but I think it’ll go higher. I asked my agent to bid it at $300k but she told me that there are 30 bid for this property (not sure if that is true or not...we’ll see).
It’ll rent out easily at $2k/mo since IAC is renting out 2b/2b apt nearby with special for, I believe (quote me if I’m wrong), $1900/mo. If you put all cash on this property, the $24k yearly rental income minus HOA and prop tax (around $7.5k) will net you around 5.5% return on $300k. That’s a pretty impressive return with upside potential come after 2012.
It probably doesn’t make a lot of sense for folks who reads this blog but Oak Creek is probably one of the most desirable location in Irvine (well, at least my wife and I liked it when we were there).
Posted by AZDavidPhx on 05/15/08 at 06:55 AM
Posted by Chris Wheeler on 05/15/08 at 06:56 AM
I have been reading the stories posted on this blog for several months now and I continue to be amazed.
In 2002 I sold my house in Sarasota, FL for $206K. The Sarasota house was a 3/2 w/2 car attached and caged pool. Bought my current residence in Jackson, TN for $192K. TN house is 4/2.5 w/3 car attached and 1 acre of land. 3000 SF, so I bought at $64/SF.
In the last six years that has gone up to maybe $75/SF. Maybe not because the market is slow right now. So I look at pricing like $300/SF and am just astounded.
Oh yeah, TN has no income tax, either.
Posted by Michael Goode on 05/15/08 at 07:01 AM
Chris—towards the bottom of the housing market you should do better than a 5.5% cash on cash return. You also need to account for maintenance and management. Some banks will give you a 5% rate on a CD, still.
Posted by mav on 05/15/08 at 07:10 AM
Irvine Renter,
This is what I think of when I read this post
http://youtube.com/watch?v=kn481KcjvMo
You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when youre sittin at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin when the dealins done.
Posted by Jed Clampett on 05/15/08 at 07:29 AM
It’s the Irvine Housing Blog. It’s about Irvine, California, where people who don’t want to live in Tennessee live.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 05/15/08 at 07:36 AM
If you look at the Case-Shiller index and overlay inflation from 1994 (calculated risk blog had this graph), then the index should currently be the same as it was in 2000. Well, this unit sold in 2001 for 269K. At $1700 net rent after HOA, which is being optimistic in a time of floplords (1900 IAC rent - 200 HOA), the GRM works out to 160:1 based on the 2001 selling price.
Given that 1994 was not the bottom of the market in real terms, I think we will see prices below this before we are done.
Here’s the link:
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/orange-county-ca-prices-from-front-page.html
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 07:54 AM
It is way off topic, but which bank stil pay 5% on CD?
Posted by Michael Goode on 05/15/08 at 07:56 AM
National City is offering 5% on 48m CDs over $10k. The company is on shaky ground, so I would not recommend putting more than the FDIC insurance limit of $100k into National City.
Posted by Michael Goode on 05/15/08 at 07:56 AM
Linky here:
https://www.nationalcity.com/main/CD/pages/CD-Type4.asp?WT.mc_id=100651
Posted by ipoplaya on 05/15/08 at 08:03 AM
$2100-2200 probably. 2/2 1300sf units in my neighborhoood have rented as high at $2500, as low as $2100. Those are detached though.
Posted by ipoplaya on 05/15/08 at 08:06 AM
I’ll add these two properties to my escrow tracking and we’ll see where they close at. Looks like they got into escrow very shortly after list… Surprising with a short.
Posted by Alan on 05/15/08 at 08:10 AM
I like the “quite” interior - something essential for every interior IMHO. The fact that the custom paint and carpet are deemed worthy of 2 mentions in such a short paragraph leads me to wonder just how short of features this place really is.
Wouldn’t it be better if there was no one above and no one below, rather than “or”? But for $360K I guess you can’t expect too much.
Posted by Carl on 05/15/08 at 08:22 AM
I agree about Oak Creek. It is darn convenient and centrally located. Lots o’ parks and a great community feel. Kind of like Stepford~No, seriously we lived there when we first moved to OC and found ourselves going back again and again because of all the great things around there.
Posted by caveat emptor on 05/15/08 at 08:24 AM
Sorry, but I just have to say, your sentence is EXACTLY the attitude that makes people think 300 dollars a square foot is perfectly reasonable. It isn’t - no way, no how, not now, not before, not later, not ever. Sorry, but it’s true and the sooner you (and EVERYONE in Irvine) starts living with that mantra, the sooner prices will return to reasonable levels because no buyers means NO SALES UNTIL PRICES ARE REASONABLE FOR A PLACE TO LIVE. A house, in Irvine or anywhere, is JUST A PLACE TO PARK YOURSELF NOTHING MORE OR LESS THAN THAT. It is emotional attachments to places and things that cause this type of thinking, this irrational NEED to live here and only here as nowhere else could possibly be as good. I’ve been to Tennessee, I think it’s pretty there and the people seem warm and welcoming. Probably a good place to live (I just don’t choose it myself).
(Yes, I live in Irvine - no I’m not a bitter, angry renter - I’m just smart enough to recognize that four square walls and a roof aren’t worth 300 a square foot.)
Posted by Carl on 05/15/08 at 08:33 AM
Is there some Realtor trick going on?
The first is listed as taking backups but is clearly a short sale. Why are they taking backups if the bank has the offer? If a backup comes in greater than the first, who wins? Where’s the good faith?
Also, compare this to what happened with 51 Momento where it went to auction and then was removed from the auction list (after auction) and appeared back in the MLS a week later as “taking backups”
A couple of things occur to me....Someone is approaching trustees and saying something like “I can’t bring cash to the auction but I will pay a premium” or These places are selling far below current list for other bank properties and there is a way to keep them out of the MLS for an extended period with this taking backups routine. Maybe something I haven’t thought of?
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 08:36 AM
“It’ll rent out easily at $2k/mo since IAC is renting out 2b/2b apt nearby with special for, I believe (quote me if I’m wrong), $1900/mo.”
Agreed. Keep in mind, the IAC specials involve incentives that expire (first and/or last months’ rent free, 10% off market rate, etc.). i.e. The $1,900 rental rate should be treated just like a teaser rate on an ARM. The rental rate will jump significantly after the first year and continue to increase annually.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 08:42 AM
If you’re married, $200k is FDIC insured in joint accounts.
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 09:01 AM
Sounds like a good deal compare to other banks, but 48 months is too long of a commitment for me. I need the money in about 2 or 3 yrs, when I feel the RE should be bottom-out then, and my boys need a better middle school. Any other bank with shorter term?
Posted by buster on 05/15/08 at 09:10 AM
IndyMac comes close. Funded a CD there last Saturday at 4.15%. Open on the internet, get a confirmation number, walk into branch and get your CD. For the best rates, check www.bankrate.com. Good for mortgages and credit cards, too.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 09:10 AM
Parts of rural Tennessee are stunning, and Nashville and Memphis are both great “small” cities. Plus, I loves me some BBQ. I’d live in Tennessee if my job could take me there. Chris, enjoy your acre for $75/SF. Sounds like you got it made.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 09:11 AM
Well said, mav.
Posted by buster on 05/15/08 at 09:13 AM
Actually, the insurance is $100,000 per joint owner, so add your kid, parents, etc. But it can be tricky because the total is $100,000 per person per institution (not per account). IRAs are counted separately. So don’t think you can just go around opening different types of accounts at the same institution and increase your FDIC insurance limit.
Posted by DeadBeatRenter on 05/15/08 at 09:14 AM
What ever it is, in this world you can’t trust anyone.
This row house is worth about $189.000.00
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 09:57 AM
Allow me to illustrate how ridiculous your statement regarding “worth” is. A prime borrower could put 5% down ($10k +/-) and finance $179k at a likely blended rate of 7% creating a $1,190 monthly mtg payment. Assuming the cost of ins, taxes, & HOAs is balanced by the tax shift, and that this unit would rent for minimally $2,000, the buyer would save roughly $800 monthly be purchasing this unit as opposed to renting it.
But you’re probably right - it’s “worth” about $189k.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 09:58 AM
Chattanooga’s gorgeous too, if you like small cities with rivers and mountains. Too bad it has a mini-bubble (way way too many recent building mcmansion projects). Still totally within reason if you’re used to East Coast overpaying.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 10:01 AM
You don’t have to assume 20% down; the secondary market hasn’t begun to require that much… yet.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 10:08 AM
“Assuming the cost of ins, taxes, & HOAs is balanced by the tax shift,”
That’s quite an assumption. Remember that your “tax deduction” has to exceed the normal “standard deduction” for any benefit to begin kicking in. On a $179k loan 7% APR is only 12.53k so you’re only getting a little over 2k off your income, which even at 28% only nets you $670 per year, that’s not going to cover ins. taxes and HOA. Besides-which I don’t know about this whole 30year mortgage assumption on low-end properties that are going to deflate. If they really do get to fundamentals 15year mortgages are a significantly better deal (at the moment as much a 1% APR off, plus the whole not paying more interest than principle over the life of the loan)
(sorry about the fast and loose with my own numbers)
Posted by dayday on 05/15/08 at 10:31 AM
Funny, I was just looking at this property the other day. Relatively, it is a reasonable deal but still has a bit ways to go. How low will this property like this go for?
Posted by Blueberry Pie on 05/15/08 at 10:35 AM
The emotional attachment is why people are willing to pay a premium.
Some people like to live in a city, so they are willing to pay a premium to have an apartment in Manhattan.
Some people like the beach, so they are willing to pay a premium to live within walking distance of the beach.
Some people like warm, dry weather, so they are willing to pay a premium to live in Irvine over Tennessee.
Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 05/15/08 at 10:36 AM
I’m with you. I’d rather rent this pile than own it.
I’ll horde my 80K down payment and wait for lower prices.
Sadly, this dump is in my price range as a first time buyer. If this is all I get for making in the top 90% of my age group, working my ass off, and committing to 30 years of slavery, well, I’ll probably end up as Chris’ neighbor in Tennessee!
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 10:45 AM
That’s a good point!
But if the buyer spends 2.5x his/her income on this place, that would put them near $75k in income. Because we live in a high tax state, an individual would pay roughly $5k and a couple nearly $3k in state income taxes. Add that amount to the mtg interest and your itemized deductions likely exceed the standard.
Lot’s of assumptions being made here; fair to say though, that whatever your tax situation, owning this unit @ $189k would be cheaper than renting it.
Posted by Blueberry Pie on 05/15/08 at 10:46 AM
How long would it take an $89k household income to save up $72k?
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 10:57 AM
Depends on how aggressive you are, and rather you have car payments, and other expense.
For my family of 7, I can survive on $89K and still save about $3-5k/yr and eat pizza and instant noodle everyday.
For a couple with only one kid, they can save up 72K in two or three years. Again, it depends a lot of lifestyle, etc.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 11:10 AM
another good point.
I should remind myself that I’m already half way to the standard deduction with state taxes. So for this price a little over half the interest will be tax deductible (i.e. above the standard for a couple filing jointly)
(not going to think about the alternative minimum tax, just going to avoid that for now...)
Posted by houseonlegs on 05/15/08 at 11:28 AM
It will be interesting to see what these do sell at, put ‘em on the board Ipo.....
Posted by 25w100k+ on 05/15/08 at 11:30 AM
I would buy either of these properties. If Daffodil falls out of escrow i’ll make an offer.
I think i’d make an offer for the west irvine one, but i’d have to see it first.
Posted by Red on 05/15/08 at 11:42 AM
Good call, Priced_Out_IT_Guy.
It really is time for many of us to move elsewhere. Quality of life can be much better elsewhere, both environmentally and financially.
My company can no longer hire engineers to move here from out of state, they take one look at home prices and bolt, even with salaries 50% higher than back home. Why live in a massive throng of humanity with hellish commutes and obscene home prices? Do we really need a beach sunset that much?
Posted by mmg on 05/15/08 at 11:48 AM
Hey, caveat, watch what you’re saying, this is IRVINE, a very very special place where minimum wage is $100 per hour
Posted by Vik on 05/15/08 at 11:55 AM
Its going to be more like $1800-$1900. At least that would have been the case 6 months ago when I was in the rental market. For $2200 I got a 2br/2ba recently built in Quail Hill, 2 car garage, stainless steel appl, granite counters, 1700 sq ft, etc.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 12:15 PM
The time has come for virtual commuting. Then we could all make OC salaries while living on one acre lots near Chris in Tennessee.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 12:16 PM
To live in or as an investment?
Posted by macndub on 05/15/08 at 12:47 PM
National City, like WaMu, may not make it. Hence the high rates. Now you can say, “Hey, it’s insured!” Then think about what your life would be like waiting for your money while the bankruptcy winds through.
No thanks. Just because it’s insured, doesn’t mean that depositors don’t need to be thinking about counterparty risk.
Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 05/15/08 at 12:51 PM
My folks lived in Teleco, right outside of Knoxville, and had a nice view of the Little TN River. It is the best place I’ve ever water-skiid: smooth, glassy river with 80F water temperature. Very green country, but they had to run the AC all summer long - too humid.
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 12:54 PM
When was the last time that Neville Mariner and The Academy of St. Martin on the Field visited Nashville?
How about Christoph von Dohnányi with the Philharmonia?
Do you have an L&L;Hawaiian BBQ in Tennessee?
Posted by LC on 05/15/08 at 12:57 PM
Do people realize that you can get over 3000 sq/ft new houses over the hill in Corona for $359k? I am sorry, but Irvine is not that different from Corona. Eventually, people are going to realize the idiocy of paying too much. People who look at this kind of place do not have money to burn.
Posted by hasekho on 05/15/08 at 01:03 PM
I was offered a job in Orange County last week and when the headhunter told me the salary, I about died laughing. No wonder they were “aggressively” seeking a candidate for the job. No sane person would take a job for 100,000 in that part of the country.
It’s all personal preferences. I’d sacrifice for Chicago but not for anything with a beach. I feel for the high tech employers out there who need people with a specialized skill set. It’s got to be hard to lure people to that real estate market!
Posted by LC on 05/15/08 at 01:03 PM
Nashville is known as Music City. Really, it is world famous and quite civilized. But Chattanooga has a smog problems.
Posted by LC on 05/15/08 at 01:09 PM
I know that it is possible to save $30k/yr making $60k/yr.
Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 05/15/08 at 01:14 PM
Yeah, engineers of all people are capable of analyzing the financial suicide of moving to California for an extra twenty grand per year. Meanwhile your taxes increase and your quality of life plummets 75%.
It was and still is a no brainer for highly skilled professionals in IT, web design, software development, and other high tech industries to move out of California.
This mass exodus doesn’t just apply to current residents. Even other highly skilled professions, such as tax accountants (which good ones are in high demand), one of which I knew moved to California without analyzing the financial situation, soon found it impossible to get by and moved back to the mid west.
I myself am considering Oregon or Colorado. There are so many beautiful places in the United States to live with higher standards of living.
Posted by Priced_Out_IT_Guy on 05/15/08 at 01:20 PM
There are still expenses to consider to virtual commuting such as flying in to your job site every month or two, hotel costs, etc. If you are a software engineer managing a team of people, virtual commuting is not an option.
I’m not trying to dismiss virtual commuting. But it still isn’t practical for a lot of jobs that require lots of social interaction, meetings and planning (what true IT nerd wants those anyway??)
I work from home 3-4 days per week and let me tell you, it rocks!
One thing to note is that once the internet evolves and virtual commuting becomes even better, those guys in Tennessee like Chris will be undercutting our salaries in OC, and we’ll have yet another force of economics telling us to abandon the beach!
Just think, there will be massive communities in the Mid West of pasty white nerds…
Posted by 25w100k+ on 05/15/08 at 01:25 PM
To live in for now.
Posted by 25w100k+ on 05/15/08 at 01:25 PM
and then i’d put in granite counter tops and flip it in six months for $$$
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 01:25 PM
My stocks and 403(b) are doing well either.
Sounds like I probably want to use the money to pay off my mortgage when my CD at IndyMac matured instead of trying to get it roll over as another CD.
Or I will go to JCPenny’s and buy some 14K gold.... just kidding.
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 01:26 PM
oops… meant to say *not* doing well.
Posted by Astute Observater on 05/15/08 at 01:31 PM
Must be single, and live like a graduate student in his/her parent house to do that.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 01:36 PM
I would agree that it’s not too different, but are there not subtleties that make a big difference on where you want to live? How much of a premium you should pay is the question.
Posted by momopi on 05/15/08 at 01:47 PM
Both properties are in decent neighborhoods. However there are some caveats.
If you plan to buy the first one in West Irvine, be warned that street parking is very tight. At night even the pool area is packed with cars. So if you live by yourself and intend to use the garage for parking, that’s fine. But if you want to have a party and invite friends over, parking sucks.
For the 2nd property, the Oak Creek community is very nice but that condo is priced lower because of its very close proximity to the 405 FWY. If you go across Alton to the other half of the community, comparable properties would cost more for the benefit of distance to the 405 FWY. I think there’s some power lines toward Sand Canyon Ave area, though they did leave lots of space for them.
As for Corona, I might consider buying investment properties there, but won’t live there. Currently I live within walking distance to work in Irvine. I used to work in downtown LA and spent 3 hours daily on the commute alone, will not repeat.
If my job allowed me to telecommute, I’d still maintain and residence in coastal area of CA, and live part time overseas in places like Boracay. I’d um… buy a plot of beach-front land, build a 2 story residence. Live on 2nd floor and use 1st floor to run an internet cafe, hire some cute girls as employees.
If you’d prefer to stay in the mid-west and live among single white male IT nerds, well, go ahead. You won’t find me there.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 02:05 PM
“Irvine is not that different from Corona”
Uh, you are kidding, right? Have you ever been to Corona or Irvine?
If you have been to both and the difference is not apparent, then perhaps you should consider one of those $359k gems over the hill. And hey, if you promise not to call the cops then maybe your next door neighbor will give you free Meth for life.
Posted by rkp on 05/15/08 at 02:17 PM
Tonye’s point is very valid. I have been to TN a lot and agree that it has wonderful things to offer but you just can’t compare pricing in another market.
Posted by rkp on 05/15/08 at 02:20 PM
My parents had money in Lincoln and it was super easy for them to get it via FDIC. I dont think its a big deal.
Posted by Perspective on 05/15/08 at 02:22 PM
I was a little too timid to get into the many “cultural” differences.
Posted by rkp on 05/15/08 at 02:30 PM
Well said CK! What’s up with everyone comparing cities today. Nashville, Chattanooga, Corona...etc.
Every city is different and more importantly, its all about supply and demand. There are more people looking to live in this area than Corona, etc and hence prices will have a premium. Is the product inherently worth more? I don’t think so but if this is where you want to live due to family and work like in my case, then I have to accept that I will have competition at certain price points and I can’t keep thinking about how much house I can get in Chattanooga for the same $.
Posted by caliguy2699 on 05/15/08 at 02:40 PM
“There are so many beautiful places in the United States to live with higher standards of living.”
Exactly, and this is apparently lost in a lot of the arrogance that pops up around here...mostly by bulls who talk about OC as a “world-class destination” (it’s nice and all, but let’s be serious) and try to justify bubble prices. They don’t believe anyone would willingly leave OC to live anywhere else...I say if you’re a happy person, you will be happy just about anywhere.
At one of my previous employers we ran into this problem - we literally could not find anyone for a job we had posted. The supervisor told me flat out that he wasn’t surprised, because “nobody in their right mind” could take that job and live here for what they were able to pay (which in most other parts of the country wouldn’t be half bad).
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 02:47 PM
“Every city is different and more importantly, its all about supply and demand”.
This is the most astute observation I have seen all day. Thank you for that, rkp. There have been some wacko comparisons to Irvine on this board in the past, but Chattanooga has to take the cake.
Posted by r€nato on 05/15/08 at 02:55 PM
I too think that Irvine/OC is always overvalued, even in best of times… BUT there’s a reason they say “Location, location, location”.
I’m just smart enough to recognize that four square walls and a roof aren’t worth 300 a square foot.
So anyone who doesn’t eat off the value menu at McDonald’s is an idiot? After all, a hamburger is just two buns and a patty of meat, right? And anyone who doesn’t drive a Yaris is an idiot, after all it’s just four tires and an engine.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 02:59 PM
I would argue that the arrogance is from the people from (name a town) come to IHB and pound their chest about how their corner of dirt is so superior to Irvine because it costs less. That is pointless. I don’t live in Irvine because of some back of the napkin calculation on how much house I could buy in BFE --- I live here because of family, friends, career, and a culture and lifestyle which suit my family. So that’s all fine and dandy that somebody likes their $75 psf ranch in Tennessee. I could really care less how much it costs in Knoxville or any other “ville”. Now if your town ends with a “Viejo”, then lets talk....Because this is the IRVINE housing blog, and MV and AV are good comps.
Don’t we all like where we live, and think it is the best place on earth? If you live in Irvine and don’t think it is great, then why waste your time and money here --- there are a lot of cheaper places out there.
Posted by madhaus on 05/15/08 at 03:03 PM
There’s a lot of this thinking in Northern California, too. But what’s keeping Silicon Valley prices up is the sheer number of people in the industry—they have the critical mass and the knowledge to keep new startups coming online and the Venture Capital money is still there to fund it.
I’m not sure if Orange County can do the same. What is the main economic engine of OC now that the funny mortgage money sector is gone? LA has several sectors that need top talent, but how much of it is in OC as well?
By the way, I figure SV is 2-3 years behind you guys and we’ll have our crash too. At this point 2/3-3/4 of Santa Clara Valley zips are down from last year and I’m seeing prices in some places hitting 2004 levels. Certain cities are holding value, but how much longer can they stay up there?
Is Irvine comparable to something like Palo Alto or is it more like Sunnyvale?
Posted by Hormiguero on 05/15/08 at 03:03 PM
maybe that should be rephrased to ‘which banks which haven’t had their deposit rating cut by Fitch in the past week and are currently worth more than a few hundred million bucks...’
Posted by r€nato on 05/15/08 at 03:06 PM
Yeah well, you know, try telling certain folks that people are overpaying for the dream of living ‘the California lifestyle’ and you get flamed for being some poor dumbshit unsophisticated yokel from Phoenix or Tennessee or wherever.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 03:10 PM
More like Sunnyvale. The best comp to Irvine in the Bay Area I can think of is San Ramon.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 03:19 PM
No, renato. You get flamed for those comparisons because they are pointless. That’s great that its so cheap in Phoenix or Tennessee, I ain’t mad at ya. But if your life is not there, then why should we give a damn?
How far would it get me if I dropped an offer on 2,400 sq ft house in Westpark this weekend for $200k, and pulled out a list of recently sold comps in Biloxi, Mississippi to justify my price. What do you think the chances of me getting into escrow would be?
Posted by Dave Doolin on 05/15/08 at 03:43 PM
I was thinking maybe Bali.
Not entirely joking here.
Posted by Iblis on 05/15/08 at 03:57 PM
Tonye is right. We are all hopeless provincials here in Irvine. Let’s all move to Manhattan or Paris.
Posted by mmg on 05/15/08 at 04:33 PM
CK-->How far would it get me if I dropped an offer on 2,400 sq ft house in Westpark this weekend for $200k.
How about you offer 1800k so you are sure to get some where
exagerations to both extremes wont get us any where. how about looking at incomes(not the fantasy ones
), rents, other fundamentals etc. not some wishing fantasy and IRVINE is SPECIAL BS, Irvine was special prior to the bubble a few years back. :(
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 05/15/08 at 04:37 PM
I telecommute because most of the engineers I work with are in Shanghai. Anybody know of tax free havens (preferably with good surf) between here and there? When I was working with a group in Toronto, I was thinking of moving to a Caribbean island. Hawaii doesn’t work because the cost of living (housing, food, taxes, etc...) is just the same AND you have to pay for private schools.
Posted by cara on 05/15/08 at 04:50 PM
Twits
You’ve obviously never been there. Signal Mountain, all the other mountains are gorgeous. My MIL just built a 4 bedroom 4 bathroom totally custom home with a huge lot backing up to a large church land holding (i.e. will not be built on anytime in the near future) for $325k. Yes, I understand this is not a comp. Fine. But (a) try to tell my MIL that and (b) try to live with a tiny 1970’s townhouse as the best we can do with the same money in D.C. I’m sorry, it is too relevant.
Chattanooga has minor smog problems but nothing on the scale of southern California, and I have never seen anything more similar to the mountains near Stanford than the area outside Chattanooga. Now the total lack of useful public education is indeed a serious drawback, and I’m sorry but the “no income tax” thing is a freakin scam, you pay out way way way more in sales taxes than I ever did in income tax in Massachusetts. But. Be serious, if you’ve never been there, never eaten the cuisine, never gone to River Bend or Bonneroo, then STFU.
Posted by bigd on 05/15/08 at 04:51 PM
Irvine is the same as Corona? LOL!
I also hope Chris enjoys his location. Offer anyone living in Irvine even 50/sq.ft. to move to Tennessee and see if they’ll accept.
Posted by Blueberry Pie on 05/15/08 at 04:56 PM
Naw....he’s making $60k. Taking home $45k. Putting $30k in the bank. Living on $15k. $24k of that $15k goes towards rent.
Isn’t that how everybody afforded these houses the past 4 years - fuzzy math?
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 05:14 PM
There’s country music and then there’s listening to Beethoven’s Fifth by the Philharmonia from our mid hall seats in the new Segestrom Hall in Costa Mesa.
Posted by CK on 05/15/08 at 05:16 PM
Relax, Cara. I was not trying to say that TN is a bad place --- just that comparing it to Irvine is rather pointless. Most people who live in California are well aware of how far their buck would go elsewhere, we don’t live in a complete vacuum. Yet, we choose to pay the price for any number of reasons. If somebody living here does not like it, by all means they should not let the door hit them in the ass…
Posted by Chris on 05/15/08 at 05:16 PM
Thanks Ipop. Please keep us posted as I’d like to see the final agreed price on this so that I can gauge on the comp status of Oak Creek condos.
Of course, this may change come summer this year when all the final subprime resets are happening....we’ll see
Posted by Chris on 05/15/08 at 05:20 PM
Take it easy Caveat. If you’re so emotional about Irvine with its current state, I think you may end up in the hospital with a heart attack if you’re in Silicon Valley like myself currently.
Want outrageous RE price? Come here and laugh yourself off.
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 05:20 PM
As much as you will find hicks in Manhattan, Paris and Irvine as well as Tennessee…
The fact is that the number of people in LA/OC is way over the critical mass to present a viable market for world class orchestras.
So while the vast majoriy of hicks in OC will never subscribe to the OC Philharmonic, there are enough of us around to make it commercially viable for world class orchestras to travel to LA/OC and put two performances.
They may do this in NYC, perhaps Chicago, for sure Tokyo, Paris.... but unfortunately they can’s afford to go to SF, Dallas, etc… I think I have ddescribed this earlier.
Indeed, all of the places where such orchestras will play are very expensive places to live because a lot of people live there.
Posted by tonye on 05/15/08 at 05:28 PM
Nope.... what will happen is that those development jobs will move to China for real… then all the marketing and integration guys will live by the Coast.
There’ll be less of us anyhow. That’s the future.
Posted by QuailHillTony on 05/15/08 at 05:41 PM
Actually, I compare Irvine with Palo Alto or Cupertino. I moved here from Sunnyvale in 2004, specifically because houses were significantly cheaper here than in Bay Area.
For us, the issue is the schools.
Posted by edW on 05/15/08 at 06:06 PM
In addition to the quite interior I assume the barber carpet comes with some leavings from the haircut. And just for my information base how high is tree line in Irvine?
Posted by edW on 05/15/08 at 06:18 PM
nicely baited hook reels in the fish - cunning.
Posted by skek on 05/15/08 at 06:18 PM
C’mon guys, leave TN alone. The original post was just expressing some sticker shock:
“I have been reading the stories posted on this blog for several months now and I continue to be amazed....In the last six years that has gone up to maybe $75/SF....So I look at pricing like $300/SF and am just astounded.”
I haven’t seen anyone offering an argument that Irvine should cost X because Tennessee does. Now, one of our friends from Phoenix used to do that, not so much any more. But there’s nothing wrong with saying other parts of the country are nice—some of them are. So is Irvine. To each his own.
I once had a conversation with an exec at Wells Fargo during the bubble. He said the hardest part of managing his mortgage underwriting center was that it was located in the midwest. The underwriters, who all lived in the midwest, kept rejecting California loan applications because (1) they couldn’t fathom that the comps accurately reflected the market, and (2) they didn’t understand how a house on one side of a street could sell for twice the amount of the house on the other side of the street (view). In hindsight, maybe the underwriters were right, at least on (1). But I’m not surprised that folks from other parts of the country come here and are amazed at what we pay.
Posted by Joseph on 05/15/08 at 06:23 PM
Let’s get some perspective here--this always seems to happen with you Irvinites. Irvine is not even close to being in the same class as Chicago, L.A., or Manhattan. In fact, Irvine is more comparable to Nashville than it is to Los Angeles. This is exactly why Irvine is so f*’ed up: you all have this imaginary sense of being different, when to us Angelenos you’re simply a concrete slab of boredom.
Posted by Party Pooper on 05/15/08 at 06:34 PM
you’ve never been to tennessee.
it’s actually cool most of the time, but very humid.
very green & great trees & lots of lakes.
Posted by Party Pooper on 05/15/08 at 06:52 PM
“...would argue that the arrogance is from the people from (name a town) ... how much house I could buy in BFE --- ... that’s all fine and dandy that somebody likes their $75 psf ranch in Tennessee. I could really care less how much it costs in Knoxville or any other “ville”. Now if your town ends with a “Viejo”, then lets talk....”
seriously, take a moment to breathe.
Posted by DeadBeatRenter on 05/15/08 at 07:12 PM
This BLOG is disintegrating into the abyss. Many of you need to take a breath and be a little less defensive. After all, there is too much to celebrate about all of America today. Irvine has always been thought of as being filled with wannabe Newporters, nothing more than James Irvine’s Ranch raped by profiteers that care only about maximizing profits and nothing about the county’s rich history. I was born here 50 years ago and have seen it all. Irvine is not the best place to live even in Orange County. Most all of the wonderfull things Orange County has to offer are in other cities.
Posted by Cal's Caddy on 05/15/08 at 07:21 PM
I really enjoy this blog. It is entertaining and quite informative. But some days it is challenging when the daily blog deviates so greatly from the discussion of the featured property or topic. I think it is great that people from all over come, read and partake in the conversation, but this blog is about Irvine Housing. I own and live in Irvine. I plan to stay in Irvine (or maybe Tustin Ranch) for my next home. I would enjoy to read and debate about properties in relative proximity. So although interesting stories and anecdotes about housing in other parts of the country may have value, but not necessarily on this blog. Maybe there is a “US Housing Blog” somewhere.
It is not that Irvine is better or “special”. If I go to a Foo Fighters concert and Michael Buble comes out singing, I might be a little disappointed. I may find both interesting and entertaining, but it’s probably not what I was looking for. So it would be nice if the astute observers could keep posts within some general relevance to Irvine Housing.
When I hear of an opinion that “$300 per sqft” is way overpriced, I remember the cost of Marlboro cigarettes when I lived in Costa Rica. They cost 100 colones. about $0.65 US. The same exact cigarettes that sell for much more in the US. Why? Because that’s what the market would bear. Cost is relative.
Posted by DeadBeatRenter on 05/15/08 at 07:33 PM
Where are we going, take alook at this new home @ $113 a square...lookout below!
Price: $389,900
Beds: 3
Baths: 2.75
Sq. Ft.: 3,455
$/Sq. Ft.: $113
Lot Size: 0.39 Acres
Lot: 10,000-19,999 Sq. Ft.
Property Type Detached, Single Family Residence
Year Built: 2006
Stories: 2 Level
View: Hills
Area: Riverside
County: Riverside
MLS#: I08070643
Source: MRMLS
Status: Active
On Redfin: 2 days
BANK OWNED, LAKE HILLS AREA, LARGE HOME W/ VIEWS, GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES, OFFICE COULD BE 4TH BEDROOM, FORMAL DINING AREA, BALCONY OFF MASTER BEDROOM, NEEDS MINOR COSMETIC TUNE-UP, SUBMIT OFFERS
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Riverside/16447-VILLAGE-Mdws-92503/home/12268413