Can this 1/1 825 sf rent for $1300/month? Shall I propose GRM of 140? It makes it $182k, 22% below asking.

another 35% to go

Nice find IRB… course its shooting fish in a barrel these days.

I think the price on something like this should be in the 100$/sq ft range. Limited appeal as most 1BR are too small for anybody but singles. Most singles want mobility so buying is a bad idea. Hence the nitch market is gay men (no children). I leave out gay women as they might get pregnant.

This is a complex that looks nice now but will probably be a slum in 15yrs. Value 0$ per sq ft.

James

not to be a pedant or anything, but I think you meant, ‘mark-to-market’, not, ‘market-to-market’.

the OC lifestyle… let’s see, would that be ‘cashing out your equity’ multiple times and blowing the proceeds on a Hummer, dinner out 5 nights a week and plastic surgery, so that $700,000 is owed on your $350,000 home?

Silly me. That is so 2006. Perhaps the ‘OC lifestyle’ is desperately chasing the market down and wondering how you are going to convince the bank to accept a short sale in the 6 figures.

No, no… that’s not it. I know! The ‘OC lifestyle’ is jingle mailing the bank and being a renter for the next 7 to 10 years while waiting for that foreclosure to come off your credit record!

yeah, uh, no children here but definitely not gay. I just have more important/fun things to do with my life than raise rugrats.

wait…wait… I got it! The ‘OC lifestyle’ is commuting on the 91 between Corona and Irvine 2 hours each way, 5 days a week… spending $4/gallon on gasoline… and paying waaaaay too much for housing in order to get that ‘California lifestyle’ which is so in demand!

Noticed on Redfin that sale price in 1990 AND 2000 was $125,000.

Is that a typo?  Or did this prop go nowhere for 10 years after previous boom was already deflating for a year and a half?

Can you imagine if this prop sells at ask now, and then can only fetch the same $232k in the year 2018?

I think $125K is a fair price for this tiny little walk-in closet of a condo. Just right for a student or one of those childless men we all know are really gay… but certainly nobody buying this place should expect to make much money on the resale. It’s a ‘starter condo’ and that’s all.

150K possible.  Not sure how desirable this area is, but I was thinking along the lines of 100K just because the place is time capsule.  And even I would not pay 100K for it.

“And even I would not pay 100k for it.”

That is because you are a moron.

$1300/month rent minus $400 expenses(taxes, HMA fees, insurance, maintenance) leaves a net of 900/month and a 11 CAP property. Most people wih money uderstand that we wil more than likely have a ZIRP for a prolnged perod as this is a global bubble and not just isolated to the US.

If a person could find an 11 CAP property in Irvine they could “carry-trade” from a rate of five to eleven.

And yes, Irvin renter you are correct. The Fed and all the other FCB’s are trying to save the financial system from a monetary oollapse.

It is funny how the eye doesn’t catch that. I read it correctly in my head even though it was wrong on the screen.

Those numbers are correct. 1990 was the top of the previous bubble, and undesirable properties like this one took 10 years to recover. Since this bubble was so much larger, it will likely take at least 10 years for the most desirable properties to recover. Properties like this one will not see $359,000 until 2020 or later.

$325 HOA due every month.  Ouch.  I wonder what they do with the HOA due?  Catered dinner every Friday night?

Yes, this property is probably worth more than $100K. I suspect a cashflow investor would probably pay $130,000 to $150,000. If someone wanted to occupy it themselves, they could pay $180,000 and break even.

I joke about the monetary collapse, but it is rather frightening, and it is a realistic possibility.

I didn’t see that. Take $30K off all the numbers I gave above…

$325??? WTF? Do I get a blow job with that?

Very classy…

I was wondering about this $325 HOA due for such a small unit too. Can those of you who are familiar with HOA dues in Irvine chime in?

Is there a good source to get educated about Irvine HOAs and expenses?

I cannot fathom why on earth an HOA would need $325 per month unless this condo has unbelievable amenities. You know, armed security 24/7, Olympic swimming pool, gym, streets paved with gold. Most condo units I hear about have HOA dues around the low 100’s per month, which I still think is too high but manageable at least.

Perhaps there are not enough units in this HOA to share the costs in a reasonable way. Perhaps there have been a bunch of repo’s, the banks aren’t paying the dues, and so the dues for the remaining folks got jacked up.

This place is an overpriced dump. 

On the plus side, I have to give a nod to the musical selection.  David Gilmour’s guitar work on this song is nothing short of fantastic.  Everybody has heard this song dozens of times over the years (depending on how old you are) but even somebody like me who only grudgingly tolerates Pink Floyd has to recognize greatness when you hear it. 

Stunningly good.

white box word “among83” = a room full of delusional realtards who believe this home justifies a WTF price.

I too am “comfortably numb”!

Yah….from the chineese pool boy…

I know someone who lives in that complex. One thing about it that shocks me is that they have communal laundry facilities (which you have to quarters in like any apartment laundry room) The HOA bans people having laundry machines in their unit.

Probably has to do with the septic/sewage system not able to handle the washing machine.  Pretty common practice for apartments.

Did you notice the sewer treatment plant 2000 yards the the right…what kind of value does that add.

Oh and GAY here with four kids, ve have our vays…

“comfortably numb”! I know what that means…

Sorry, meant to say Did you notice the sewer treatment plant 200 yards the the right?...

I could definitely see someone buying it and using it as a rental.

$325 a month and no washing machines? That adds about 50% to what the rent should be.
Yeah, this should be a renter.

Hey IR -

What do you think about the article in WSJ today that procalims the “housing crisis is over”?  This on the same day that Fannie Mae announces $2.2B loss on ‘Alt-A’. 

BD

The issue is with water damage. If you have a washer, then there needs to be a floor drain or pan with a drain.  So unless the place was designed for a washer, it’s not a good idea to add one.

Then you’ll love the $1,100 monthly dues at Marquee at Park Place.

Enough with the images. Once in awhile is funny, but everyday in annoying.

Ad hominem aside, not paying 100K for this apartment is hardly “moronic”.  I see this place as solely a cashflow investment, but if someone is looking for a home to live in, it’s hardly “moronic” to pass up this dump, even at $100K.  Face the facts: it’s an apartment.  This is the type of place I would expect to have to put up with living in temporarily if I were a single mother trying to get on her feet again.  Or a college grad looking for my first real job.  Thankfully, I am neither.  Ask yourself this: would you pay over $100K to live here?  Not rent out, but live in with no intentions of flipping or renting?  Didn’t think so.  It’s an apartment, it has been priced to flip for years, and, like all of housing in SoCal, is finally being subjected to a market correction.  The rose-colored glasses are removed, and the musical chairs music has stopped.

Buddy of mine owns a 1/1 that he rents to a nice retired lady for $975/month.  So take $975, subtract association and taxes, you get about $825.  Using the handy-dandy mortgage calculator, $825/mo at 5.75% allows you to make in a fully-amortizing mortgage payment on $142,000.  So there you go—that’s what the MARKET says it’s worth.

“Can you imagine if this prop sells at ask now, and then can only fetch the same $232k in the year 2018?”

I imagine that would be a pretty rational market.

I would think that a small condo should appreciate right at at inflation, or perhaps below appreciation to account for the wear and tear on the property.

I am contemplating a post next week about the next stage in the credit crunch. I suspect one of the GSEs will go under and need a government bailout. Their lending standards are still too loose, and many of the loans they insured are going to default. When one of the GSEs needs a bailout, the credit crunch will become much more severe.

More important things to do like what?  Spam this board 50 times a day with useless crap?

So let’s see.  a smallish 1bd/1bth, no laundry, carport, 30 years old, high HOA.  Too far from UCI to be used as college housing.

Let’s say rent of $1200.

$1200 - $325 HOA= $875 = $10500/yr.

5% vacancy, $750 maint/yr, leaves about $9k.  Throw in two grand every 5 yrs special assessment (this is 30 years old, afterall).  PITI =~11%, including if the HOA allows rentals without too much hassle.  This is taking into account that both the insurance and interest rate are going to be higher in a renter dominated condo assoc. than one that is primarily owner occupied. 

I bid $80k as a potential landlord.  That should cashflow neutral.

It also includes doing the management myself.  If I have to hire management out, it is going to cost more, so be worth significantly less.

Then I would bid $60k.

This complex is 31 years old.  Perhaps ongoing repairs/upgrades are requiring the hefty expenditure.  From the aerial photo, there appears to be plenty of units in the complex.  Maybe this complex has many foreclosures that aren’t paying any dues.

Judging from what you all say this place would rent for, $140K is too high, because you must deduct that HOA fee of $325 from that rent, and the taxes, too, to arrive at the true rent.

If the place rents for $975, and you deduct $425 in HOA and taxes, that leaves $550 for you, the landlord, out of which you must make the mortgage payments.

Based on that, this place is worth $88K. That seems low even to me, but I surely wouldn’t give more than $100K.

And about that HOA fee- does it include utilities? Here, an assessment of $320 a month usually includes the heat, which is a big item here in Chicago but shouldn’t be important in Irvine.

you know what keeps me coming back here?

Annoying jackasses like you. Makes my day.

while at the dentist yesterday, I read an article by Matthew Cooper (Conde Nast something-or-other, finance-related mag) suggesting just that possibility, only he seemed to think it was merely a remote possibility which should be prepared for.

Judging from what I read, I think Cooper was entirely too optimistic. GSEs are holding a lot of crap mortgages and there is that ‘implicit’ bailout guarantee which has existed for the entire 40 years that they have nominally been purely private, standalone enterprises.

I think that would be an excellent topic for a post.

IR,

Since this site is Irvine focused I think it would be interesting if you could do a post on how the HOA fees and structure are set up. Is there one overriding management group into which all of the HOA’s pay or does each one have to cover their own? Maybe a combination of both? How come some areas are Mello Roos and some aren’t?

i.e. here in VA in RESTON all homeowners pay dues to the Reston Association which in turn maintains all open space, rec facilities etc. In my neighborhood we pay all of our own maintenance costs and a portion of the larger community costs for the larger main areas outside of our immediate neighborhood.

yeah but this is in OC, so the price gets bid up by those desperate to live the OC/Cali lifestyle.

I don’t mean to harsh on you OC/Cali people too much, it’s just that, in my mind, the whole paying-for-the-Cali lifestyle shtick is way overblown and I’ve been convinced for many years that the premium one pays for a California address is due to far too many lemmings buying into that idea, who want to live the Cali lifestyle but don’t actually get much of it once they are there.

Prices are still crazy. This unit is $99,000 tops. You guys are delusional if you think it is even close to a good deal. A Kool Aid contact high.

Annoying jackasses like me who actually come here to read and discuss the Irvine housing market, and would like to do so without having to weed through some crap about how you think you should get a BJ for your HOA fee?  Rock on, brother.

Greenspace, walking trails, wildlife corridors. That is what I love about the Irvine(tm) lifestyle(tm).

Exactly.

This place has to be bought by someone who wants to hold it for the long run and rent out.

Not something that I would want to deal with, but probably someone else out there would.

These properties have to come way down to allow a landlord to rent out for +cash.

It will be filled with Baghdadis in five years. Mark my words.

No, that is not including heat nor air conditioning, but might include insurance. Other than that, it probably pays dirt wages for the landscapers, and top dollars for the lawyers in the class action lawsuits and residual building defect lawsuits.

a sense of humor; you should check into getting one.

I suppose this issue depends on who you ask.

Some might consider it an alternative way of expressing a point of view would be difficult to express in a soley textual format.

As long as it is relevant and not gratuitous (not spam), I don’t see a problem with it.

its f’ing annoying now..pls grow up kid

<B>Greenspace, walking trails, wildlife corridors. That is what I love about the Irvine(tm) lifestyle(tm). <B>

Fantastic.  But there are many areas all over the country that provide similar “lifestyles”.

Some of the elements on here express themselves as though they are living on some sacred piece of land as though everyone else in the world wants to move there and thus, exceptionally high house prices are completely acceptable.

They try to use this irrational logic to create a “demand” justification of bubbly house prices.  The people feel good about themselves for paying such high prices because they get to live somewhere that (they believe) only others can dream of.  It is all about the clique-like facade that “everyone wants to be in our club” so they are willing to pay more.

The reality is that while Irvine may be very nice - there are plenty of areas with similar features that do not require people to overly leverage themselves to afford a house.

As someone who doesn’t live there - it appears ridiculous.

As all was intended from the graphic.

The housing crsis is over?  Thank goodness, it was getting a little boring.

Keep them coming.  They’re getting better everyday.

you forgot the association fees here are 325.00 a month, taht takes you to 650.00.

They are still giving out junk loans because they have to keep feeding their monster with whatever they can scrounge up.

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/04/29/fha-seller-backed-markets-equity-cx_md_0422markets34.html

On a large scale, people still can’t afford at traditional conventions.

If banks went to a strictly 20%-down system today then the majority of knife-catchers would not be able to afford and the banks would have to eat the losses on their own.  Much smarter to find a bunch of patsies (who think they are getting a deal) to throw their money away into the imploding system.

It’s going to be a slow process.  The banks need to keep the stream of knife-catchers coming in order to help share (subsidize) the loss.

Eventually it will get back to traditional measures, but I don’t think it can happen over-night.

Even I enjoy the pictures, David.  And we don’t agree on much. 

I’d still rather pay $450k for a townhouse in Irvine than a 3000 sq ft McMansion in Phoenix, however.

I would actually think that a property would reach a point in time where it actually begins to depreciate due to its age.

You can only smear lipstick on it so many times.

Size of the unit does not matter george.  HOAs are mostly responsible for common areas so everyone shares in those equally no matter if they live in 800sf or 2000sf…

As a general rule, older HOAs often have higher HOA dues relative to newer complexes as a result of fiscal mismanagement.  They under-estimated their reserve needs, didn’t reserve enough as the years went buy, didn’t maximize the income on the reserves over the years, etc. 

Many HOAs just stick reserve funds in simple commercial money market paying very little interest.  When large expenditures start to hit as the years pass, they don’t have significant enough reserves so they start jacking the monthly fee and hitting people with special assessments.

The good/smart HOAs will utilize a professional money manager to mix investments, ladders CDs, etc. to ensure they are always achieving market returns…  When I was the president of my HOA, we made such a move, and it really helped in terms of the interest income on the reserve funds.

Irvine knife catchers are putting 27% down AZ.  Going to 20% wouldn’t have effected many of the sales here since 1/1/08.

IR
First time poster, long time reader. I have a source of true pain for you, look at 6 prairie Grass. In fact , all of mid shady Canyon- it is about to bust open. 6pg was bought for 2.1 in 2004. They tried to sell it for 3.8 in 2007. Think of that! 1.7M in 3 years, or roughly 600K/year. It is not the only one in the neighborhood for sale and will be a comp killer.

An interesting RE agent trick I noticed was attributing non existent faults to lower priced models in the same neighborhood. ” I heard that house had foundation problems”

No one stepped up. They now have a NOD, apparently can’t lower the price below 3.1 w/o bank approval.

My question: Was it really worth 2.1 in 2004?

Ipop,

Hopefully, you’ll trade-up and finally move to Northpark.
We need someone on the board to do something about the lifeguards at the pool.
Stop hiring dudes and be more aggressive about hiring hot chicks from local colleges. 
It will “enhance” the quality of my weekend pool time immensely.
Make sure their at least 21 years old, let me know if you need help screening applicants.

Your images rock AZ. Don’t listen to the haters!

Of course not, Ipoplaya.

First time buyers don’t buy in Irvine.

For every 27% down payment that an Irvine house gets, the money was paid by a knife catcher somewhere else that allowed your new neighbors to move in.

Follow the trail.  It all goes back to the first time buyer somewhere who got creative financing.

double-post.  Clicked wrong reply link.

Of course not, Ipoplaya.

First time buyers don’t buy in Irvine.

For every 27% down payment that an Irvine house gets, the money was paid by a knife catcher somewhere else that allowed your new neighbors to move in.

Follow the trail.  It all goes back to the first time buyer somewhere who got creative financing.

The problems at the GSEs are not from their primary underwriting and securitization business in conforming space, rather they have lost tremendous amounts of money on the their investment portfolios that moved heavily into Alt-A and subprime paper.

If you looks at the portfolio of conforming loans on the GSE balance sheet the average LTV is right around 50% (could be a little lower now).  We would truly need to see an Armegeddon scenario to precipitate a failure.

Carl,

I hear you and thanks for the inside info.  I am very interested in where Shady Canyon is going to end up.  I think the tracts are probably worth low $2 millions today (probably weren’t in 04).  The first couple of sellers who drop prices well below $3 million will find some buyers on the way down, but there’s too much inventory to soak up all the houses currently for sale.

Look at the inventory—a development of 400 houses, probably only 300 built—with dozens of homes for sale, and averaging about 1 sale every 4-6 weeks.  None of the Villas or other tracts are selling, and prices are slowly racing to the bottom.  There are several other homes on Prairie Grass asking very low $3’s, and agents are telegraphing that sellers with equity are willing to substantially discount those prices.  6 PG has no chance of selling at $3.1 million.  As much as we made fun of the seller at 3 Redbird, he got $3.1 mil and only lost $1 mil off his purchase price.  Recent sellers on PG may lose twice that.

When it’s all said and done, I think Shady Canyon will suffer losses equivalent on a percentage basis to the condo developments.  It was perhaps one of the most inflated neighborhoods in all of OC.

“Recent sellers on PG may lose twice that.”

That was unclear—I meant recent buyers who now have to sell may lose twice that.

Rent prices dropping in Florida.  How long can Irvine hold out?

http://cbs4.com/consumer/rents.condos.retal.2.715122.html

I was on the board when I owned an Irvine condo and you’d be surprised how much seemingly small expenses add up.  Anything to do with irrigation, sprinklers, and outdoor landscaping brakes constantly.

I believe this unit is in a complex call “The Lakes” which has numerous outdoor water features which will cost an arm and a leg to maintain.  The complex is also fairly heavily landscaped, leading to high costs for leaf cleanup, trimming, and general maintenance.  The water bill itself is probably an eye-opener.

In addition, they may be under-reserved for upcoming major expenses such as re-roofing or re-painting.  In lieu of hitting owners with a special assessment, the HOA may have chosen to raise the dues to backfill the shortage in those reserve accounts. 

Other hidden costs I found were asbestos remediation (if you were built before ‘79 or so), legal fees (there is always someone suing you), uncollectable accounts (probably high now), and property insurance (espcially if the HOA has made claims recently).

The house featured on this IR entry just closed yesterday:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/blog/comments/rose/

Nice comp killer for higher-end TRidge.  Sold for $300K less than December 2005 purchase price…

http://www.ipoplaya.com/iposhiller.pdf

My rent has gone up a total of 3% over the past two years and is locked in until next May (year 3). No increase this year.

I can live with that.

Ten’s comments, as usual, are just awesome. 

Besides the upkeep of the amenities is the capital expenses needed in a 30+ old property.  The roof, the exterior paint, the parking lot will all need refurbishing. 
The HOA can either do a one-time charge to cover major expenses - which hurts the current homeowners tremendously, but keeps the monthly dues low - or they could increase the HOA to create a capital fund. 
In a condo deal, there is no one paying for the upkeep, but the homeowner.  If you want something nice and presentable, you have to pony up for the expense.

The Lakers and Angels are winning.  The CHP is still learning to use instant on radar.

How are the Suns and Diamondbacks.  There’s a freeway in Phoenix with built in radar/laser.

Gimme Irvine.

I told my boss not to bother with a raise.

I told him to pay me in Mexican pesos.

He won’t do it.  Maybe they know that would be a huge raise and they can’t afford it.

Que viva Pancho Villa!!!

What did it go for?  Did they really get 1,499K?  That’s 441 per square foot.

When does a bank that has foreclosed on a home actually have to show it as a loss on their books?

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-bac-mortgage-wm-april/index/a/17046/from/yahoo

$1.42M.  Paid $1.72M in 12/05.

Excellent idea ten.  Isn’t there an adults-only pool at the Woodbury commons?  They should have bikini-wearing waitresses serving drinks there.  Hot coeds bringing you Da Goose, a short commute to work, and great school district too.  Ah yes, Irvine really is different…

You absolutely have to question what is going on with the HOA.  There have been some real idiots in charge of money belonging to the HOA.  I know our HOA got taken over by morons who have nearly doubled the HOA fees in less than two years.

That amount is ridiculous - isn’t that the “streams” group of units?  If so, my god…. that is obscene.

If not there, then the IE.  Afterall, we have to “thank” the expelled citizens who took our side somehow.

Oh, and climate-wise, we would want them to feel like they were back home!

Will the feature that shows the latest blog entry return? 

That was nice.

I saw this comment on another blog, and it made me wonder the same thing:

“why can’t the people who are having trouble with their payments, go to their existing lenders, ask to have their mortage changed from an adjustable to a maybe 50 year fixed, which would give them consistancy to their payment, may extend the duration longer than either the bank or homeowner would like, but would buy them some time to ride this nightmare out. I understand the banks want their money, but wouldn’t they rather they get it over a longer period of time instead of losing so much with a foreclosure? When you look at the big picture, the bank is on the hook for the inflated mortgage whether the homeowner pays or not, so why not try to keep the homeowner paying? It just seems like it would be such an easy fix, but again…I have no idea how that works from the inside.”

Well, I’ve been asked…and yes, it’s annoying.  Not even original.

Hey there Major,

Can you expand upon what you are looking for? 

CW,

“We would truly need to see an Armegeddon scenario to precipitate a failure.”

From the New York Times: “A version of those events began in November, when Freddie Mac’s capital fell below congressionally mandated levels.”

It depends on your definition of failure. If you mean a complete implosion then you are probably right. But, if you mean bailout then you are wrong.

Are pesos really appreciating in comparison to
dollars?

The more poor ten talks this way the more totally I am convinced he isn’t getting any.

Anyway, I vote for the beefcake.

Banks are stupid.  Banks are stupid.  Banks are stupid.  Let me count the ways.

A good way to get rid of REOs would be to finance them, at least for a while.  Are they doing that?
NOOOoooooo.

5:30 pm at Gelsons and the place is a ghost town.

There was a lot of up front parking too.  What a change from just two years ago in the evening.