Hmmm, the listing’s already down again.
I wonder if redfin is facing issues about non-buyers looking at properties through them, in particular linked to from here. For the Boston area you have to register in order to see the listings because the only want serious buyers to have access to the MLS. With the link in Slate, there could be serious traffic to these listings.
Or we really do have a bunch of eager knife catchers snapping up these bargain homes. (at least the non-shoe-box sized, recent construction ones).
Posted by AZDavidPhx on 04/23/08 at 05:45 AM
HURRY!
This will be an easy 2002 rollback. I would not even be surprised to see it go back as far as 2000 by the time all is said and done.
I am starting to wonder what is going on. Two days in a row is a strange coincidence. It would seem a foolish selling strategy to pull a listing on a day when it is likely to be viewed by several thousand people. Since I have already captured the important information in the post, very little is accomplished by removing it from Redfin. If this becomes a trend, I will start adding links to dozens of properties in my posts just to see if they will pull all of them. On any given day, I am selecting one property out of 2 dozen good candidates. Perhaps I will add a section on “other properties to view” with all these links. If this is a tactic aimed at the IHB, I think they underestimate our creativity and resourcefulness.
whoops, forgot link! Here it is for the comic I referenced (if you look at it after 4/23, may have to select the date to see it)
Posted by Carl on 04/23/08 at 07:06 AM
Gilligan’s isle is so apt for an Orange County housing blog… a lot of it was filmed at Pirate’s Cove in Corona Del Mar, and in Newport Harbor.
Posted by girlbear on 04/23/08 at 08:02 AM
great logo but I think you should show some fingers sliced off or maybe blood from the palm…
Posted by Jeff on 04/23/08 at 08:21 AM
I have been following this blog since Sept 2007 and this is the first property that I can actually match the income requirement and downpayment needed. Not bad for 8 months. In 8 more, I might even be movin up like the Jeffersons.
P.S. IR…I am committed to rattling the tip jar in the near future. Your efforts are appreciated.
Posted by Dano on 04/23/08 at 09:07 AM
The real question this post brings up is not should you buy or rent…. it’s who was hotter - Mary Ann or Ginger? My vote has always gone to Mary Ann - even with her latest brush with the law for possession of paca lolo….
Dano
Posted by alan on 04/23/08 at 09:16 AM
IR,
I disagree that the situation is a prisoner’s dilemma. There is no way the lenders could possibly band together to hold prices at current levels since prices are fundamentally misaligned with the market. If supply was more limited and prices were only say 20% above market the lenders might have a chance of forming a cartel (like OPEC). Smart lenders are looking at projections of continued gradual price declines for the next 3-4 years and thinking whatever they get now will still be better than what they will get next year.
Posted by Westparker on 04/23/08 at 09:29 AM
If this one ends up selling for asking price, it’s very close to a cash flow break even investment. With 10% down at 6% the PI is $1740 add $180 for HOA and $300 for taxes and you’re at $2220. The San Carlos apartments which are right next to this complex are renting 2/2’s with no garage or washer dryer in the unit for $1900/mo. I would bet this one could rent for $2000/mo. While it’s not there yet, if the prices go under 300K, investors will be all over these.
Posted by J on 04/23/08 at 09:58 AM
I would not do that. Some MLSs are dying to cut off websites like Redfin from posting MLS data on the Internet. This sentiment has diminished lately, but it is still out there. I think most people would agree that the market is better for having the easily accessible information without having to go through a real estate agent.
Posted by NoCal SC on 04/23/08 at 09:59 AM
Funny—I lived in this model in Westpark right after college. Wasn’t a bad setup for a roomie situation except that anyone coming over had to go through one of the bedrooms to use a bathroom. Can’t imagine actually buying it to live in longish-term though. This is exactly the type of place that should be rental units only.
Posted by houseonlegs on 04/23/08 at 10:08 AM
I have been in this exact model and only one of the bathrooms is through a bedroom, the other bathroom is off the hallway, near the other bedroom, but you don’t have to go through it. This is a really good floorplan for a room mate situation, both bedrooms are good size, dont share any walls and both bathrooms are full baths. I have seen ads for a room mate in this model for $1,000/month.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 04/23/08 at 10:10 AM
Noticed that the feature property on South OC RE Tracker was also pulled. Could be related to volume. I’ve noticed that redfin has slowed recently. Maybe they are trying to manage traffic.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 04/23/08 at 10:17 AM
160 GRM is break even for buyers. For investors, you only get a tax benefit for a loss, so you need to cover maintenance and the unit sitting empty. That’s why the GRM of 120/130 is batted around for investment. At 130 and net rent of 1800/mo, you get 234K which is close to what it sold for in 2002. According to my back of the envelope calculations for a variety of neighborhoods, prices have to roll back to 2002 (unadjusted for inflation) to be at fundamental values today.
Posted by Ken on 04/23/08 at 10:42 AM
“Light & Bright” also reminds me of the Aqua Teen Hunger Force paranoia trip the city of Boston took a while ago…
Posted by TheNumbersNeverLie on 04/23/08 at 12:00 PM
Anyone remember the early black & white days of Gilligan’s Isle when the opening lyrics were “The movie star, and the rest…”. What a burn for the professor and Mary Ann. After all, where would the castaways have been without the professor?
Don’t you think prices need to roll back to a level where investors once again become interested? First time home owners are still priced out of the market and homes 500k+ are going to really suffer because nobody’s moving up anytime soon. I just see the market tumbling until real estate is an attractive investment.
Posted by Westparker on 04/23/08 at 01:16 PM
We’re both in the same ballpark. I didn’t take into account that roughly $350 of the payment will be going to principle. If you run this as an I/O (not that it’s available in the marketplace anymore) it is about cash flow break even now. At that point, many people who were renting will have a logical reason to buy. Even though the number work out at 235K now, unless rates go about 8%, I doubt we’ll see it down to that.
Posted by anybear on 04/23/08 at 02:35 PM
prudentialcal.com shows this unit as a ‘pending sale’
Posted by anybear on 04/23/08 at 02:39 PM
I couldn’t locate yesterday’s (109 Reunion) as a pending sale, and it wasn’t listed anymore on ziprealty either. hmm..
Posted by rkp on 04/23/08 at 02:49 PM
IR - how can we get in touch with an REO liquidator? I think it would be interesting to see how low lenders are willing to go. I wonder if they would accept 2002-2003 pricing this early.
Posted by Ed Dunkle on 04/23/08 at 03:41 PM
Really? I thought it was shot at the CBS Radford lot in Studio City. (Gilligan’s Island is now a parking structure, fwiw.)
Posted by Chris on 04/23/08 at 05:11 PM
Hi all,
I don’t think this listing is in MLS anymore. You can certain try checking all available MLS listings from this site:
One of my staff just moved into an 750sf or so 1/1 in this same complex. Rent was $1500 so $1800 is probably about right…
This is getting close to owner-occupied rental equivalency. At list, financing $260K or so, the monthly on everything with $250 per month in maintenance exp/reservers comes out to around $1800 on an after-tax basis.
At a price of around $275-280K, given today’s mortgage rates, this would be cheaper on a monthly basis vs. renting for sure. If that is the case, this can’t have too much further to fall unless rents head down materially.
Interest-only is still very available if you have 80% or better LTV. A buyer for this property could pick up a 10-year I/O for 5.75% today if they had the quals. 30-year fixed I/O for 6.25%.
Posted by vic on 04/23/08 at 07:26 PM
Here is a home in Mission Viejo at close to 50% off peak prices. Identical 5 bd 2500sf model next door to my in-laws sold in the mid 800’s in 2005. Now 490K
I think MR goes for 30 years and unless this is a westpark I, i believe it is going to be paying MR for a few more years, at least.
Posted by ice weasel on 04/23/08 at 10:50 PM
Buying anything now, no matter the price, assumes some things that, to me, are pretty risky.
Unless you absolutely had to, there’s just no reason to buy now. Yes, it might cash flow (or come close) right now. But what happens if rents go down? Then what?
Posted by tonye on 04/25/08 at 04:13 PM
Hey bruddah…
Dat’s PAKALOLO….. u no can spell rite da pidgin, eh?
No matta, McGarret stay da big kahuna. Dano jus da small haole.
Posted by george8 on 04/23/08 at 07:41 AM
My bid: $1800 rent at 150 GRM makes it $270k.
Posted by cara on 04/23/08 at 05:44 AM
Hmmm, the listing’s already down again.
I wonder if redfin is facing issues about non-buyers looking at properties through them, in particular linked to from here. For the Boston area you have to register in order to see the listings because the only want serious buyers to have access to the MLS. With the link in Slate, there could be serious traffic to these listings.
Or we really do have a bunch of eager knife catchers snapping up these bargain homes. (at least the non-shoe-box sized, recent construction ones).
Posted by AZDavidPhx on 04/23/08 at 05:45 AM
HURRY!
This will be an easy 2002 rollback. I would not even be surprised to see it go back as far as 2000 by the time all is said and done.
Posted by AZDavidPhx on 04/23/08 at 05:58 AM
Posted by IrvineRenter on 04/23/08 at 06:27 AM
I am starting to wonder what is going on. Two days in a row is a strange coincidence. It would seem a foolish selling strategy to pull a listing on a day when it is likely to be viewed by several thousand people. Since I have already captured the important information in the post, very little is accomplished by removing it from Redfin. If this becomes a trend, I will start adding links to dozens of properties in my posts just to see if they will pull all of them. On any given day, I am selecting one property out of 2 dozen good candidates. Perhaps I will add a section on “other properties to view” with all these links. If this is a tactic aimed at the IHB, I think they underestimate our creativity and resourcefulness.
Posted by Mike on 04/23/08 at 06:37 AM
I think everyone would appreciate today’s non sequitur comic strip (4/23/08) on the subject of why it’s a good idea to buy in a bear market!
Posted by Mike on 04/23/08 at 06:38 AM
http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/
whoops, forgot link! Here it is for the comic I referenced (if you look at it after 4/23, may have to select the date to see it)
Posted by Carl on 04/23/08 at 07:06 AM
Gilligan’s isle is so apt for an Orange County housing blog… a lot of it was filmed at Pirate’s Cove in Corona Del Mar, and in Newport Harbor.
Posted by girlbear on 04/23/08 at 08:02 AM
great logo but I think you should show some fingers sliced off or maybe blood from the palm…
Posted by Jeff on 04/23/08 at 08:21 AM
I have been following this blog since Sept 2007 and this is the first property that I can actually match the income requirement and downpayment needed. Not bad for 8 months. In 8 more, I might even be movin up like the Jeffersons.
P.S. IR…I am committed to rattling the tip jar in the near future. Your efforts are appreciated.
Posted by Dano on 04/23/08 at 09:07 AM
The real question this post brings up is not should you buy or rent…. it’s who was hotter - Mary Ann or Ginger? My vote has always gone to Mary Ann - even with her latest brush with the law for possession of paca lolo….
Dano
Posted by alan on 04/23/08 at 09:16 AM
IR,
I disagree that the situation is a prisoner’s dilemma. There is no way the lenders could possibly band together to hold prices at current levels since prices are fundamentally misaligned with the market. If supply was more limited and prices were only say 20% above market the lenders might have a chance of forming a cartel (like OPEC). Smart lenders are looking at projections of continued gradual price declines for the next 3-4 years and thinking whatever they get now will still be better than what they will get next year.
Posted by Westparker on 04/23/08 at 09:29 AM
If this one ends up selling for asking price, it’s very close to a cash flow break even investment. With 10% down at 6% the PI is $1740 add $180 for HOA and $300 for taxes and you’re at $2220. The San Carlos apartments which are right next to this complex are renting 2/2’s with no garage or washer dryer in the unit for $1900/mo. I would bet this one could rent for $2000/mo. While it’s not there yet, if the prices go under 300K, investors will be all over these.
Posted by J on 04/23/08 at 09:58 AM
I would not do that. Some MLSs are dying to cut off websites like Redfin from posting MLS data on the Internet. This sentiment has diminished lately, but it is still out there. I think most people would agree that the market is better for having the easily accessible information without having to go through a real estate agent.
Posted by NoCal SC on 04/23/08 at 09:59 AM
Funny—I lived in this model in Westpark right after college. Wasn’t a bad setup for a roomie situation except that anyone coming over had to go through one of the bedrooms to use a bathroom. Can’t imagine actually buying it to live in longish-term though. This is exactly the type of place that should be rental units only.
Posted by houseonlegs on 04/23/08 at 10:08 AM
I have been in this exact model and only one of the bathrooms is through a bedroom, the other bathroom is off the hallway, near the other bedroom, but you don’t have to go through it. This is a really good floorplan for a room mate situation, both bedrooms are good size, dont share any walls and both bathrooms are full baths. I have seen ads for a room mate in this model for $1,000/month.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 04/23/08 at 10:10 AM
Noticed that the feature property on South OC RE Tracker was also pulled. Could be related to volume. I’ve noticed that redfin has slowed recently. Maybe they are trying to manage traffic.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 04/23/08 at 10:17 AM
160 GRM is break even for buyers. For investors, you only get a tax benefit for a loss, so you need to cover maintenance and the unit sitting empty. That’s why the GRM of 120/130 is batted around for investment. At 130 and net rent of 1800/mo, you get 234K which is close to what it sold for in 2002. According to my back of the envelope calculations for a variety of neighborhoods, prices have to roll back to 2002 (unadjusted for inflation) to be at fundamental values today.
Posted by Ken on 04/23/08 at 10:42 AM
“Light & Bright” also reminds me of the Aqua Teen Hunger Force paranoia trip the city of Boston took a while ago…
Posted by TheNumbersNeverLie on 04/23/08 at 12:00 PM
Anyone remember the early black & white days of Gilligan’s Isle when the opening lyrics were “The movie star, and the rest…”. What a burn for the professor and Mary Ann. After all, where would the castaways have been without the professor?
Don’t you think prices need to roll back to a level where investors once again become interested? First time home owners are still priced out of the market and homes 500k+ are going to really suffer because nobody’s moving up anytime soon. I just see the market tumbling until real estate is an attractive investment.
Posted by Westparker on 04/23/08 at 01:16 PM
We’re both in the same ballpark. I didn’t take into account that roughly $350 of the payment will be going to principle. If you run this as an I/O (not that it’s available in the marketplace anymore) it is about cash flow break even now. At that point, many people who were renting will have a logical reason to buy. Even though the number work out at 235K now, unless rates go about 8%, I doubt we’ll see it down to that.
Posted by anybear on 04/23/08 at 02:35 PM
prudentialcal.com shows this unit as a ‘pending sale’
Posted by anybear on 04/23/08 at 02:39 PM
I couldn’t locate yesterday’s (109 Reunion) as a pending sale, and it wasn’t listed anymore on ziprealty either. hmm..
Posted by rkp on 04/23/08 at 02:49 PM
IR - how can we get in touch with an REO liquidator? I think it would be interesting to see how low lenders are willing to go. I wonder if they would accept 2002-2003 pricing this early.
Posted by Ed Dunkle on 04/23/08 at 03:41 PM
Really? I thought it was shot at the CBS Radford lot in Studio City. (Gilligan’s Island is now a parking structure, fwiw.)
Posted by Chris on 04/23/08 at 05:11 PM
Hi all,
I don’t think this listing is in MLS anymore. You can certain try checking all available MLS listings from this site:
http://www.pacificnetmortgage.com/search/index.html
Grab any of the MLS listing numbers and copy/paste onto redfin and you’ll see more details of that particular listing.
There’s no conspiracy amongst the RE agents *yet*.
Posted by ipoplaya on 04/23/08 at 06:18 PM
One of my staff just moved into an 750sf or so 1/1 in this same complex. Rent was $1500 so $1800 is probably about right…
This is getting close to owner-occupied rental equivalency. At list, financing $260K or so, the monthly on everything with $250 per month in maintenance exp/reservers comes out to around $1800 on an after-tax basis.
At a price of around $275-280K, given today’s mortgage rates, this would be cheaper on a monthly basis vs. renting for sure. If that is the case, this can’t have too much further to fall unless rents head down materially.
Posted by ipoplaya on 04/23/08 at 06:21 PM
Interest-only is still very available if you have 80% or better LTV. A buyer for this property could pick up a 10-year I/O for 5.75% today if they had the quals. 30-year fixed I/O for 6.25%.
Posted by vic on 04/23/08 at 07:26 PM
Here is a home in Mission Viejo at close to 50% off peak prices. Identical 5 bd 2500sf model next door to my in-laws sold in the mid 800’s in 2005. Now 490K
http://www.socalmls-homes.com/Listing/ListingDetail.aspx?Listing=28874055
Posted by NoWow!way on 04/23/08 at 08:16 PM
There Mello Roos associated with this property?
I think MR goes for 30 years and unless this is a westpark I, i believe it is going to be paying MR for a few more years, at least.
Posted by ice weasel on 04/23/08 at 10:50 PM
Buying anything now, no matter the price, assumes some things that, to me, are pretty risky.
Unless you absolutely had to, there’s just no reason to buy now. Yes, it might cash flow (or come close) right now. But what happens if rents go down? Then what?
Posted by tonye on 04/25/08 at 04:13 PM
Hey bruddah…
Dat’s PAKALOLO….. u no can spell rite da pidgin, eh?
No matta, McGarret stay da big kahuna. Dano jus da small haole.
Posted by LC on 04/25/08 at 05:17 PM
79 ALICANTE ALLEY #64