These condos are such a joke…I live near this area and I’m still laughing at the $300-400k asking price.

These “boxes” are worth on average $150k….what a joke…$400-500 sq ft hahahahahahahaha

IHB needs to do an update in 6 months on the status of these places.
——-

I wonder if the banks and investment companies that can’t figure out what their mortgage holdings are worth are looking at this blog. I am sure that there is some real owner(bank) of these properties somewhere that is trying to figure out the value of their asset…...that is the real story here.

When I was a kid, they used to sell the mystery box at the corner store. You paid 1 dollar, but did not know what was in the box. It was alway exciting to buy the mystery box, open it, and see the surprise.

Well, I am sure that the owners of all the mortgages on these properties are sort of opening their boxes right now. I wonder if they are able to value what is in their box…......maybe that’s why the CEO’s of all the major investment houses are being outed.

So,  maybe wall street is figuring out the true value of these properties.

Let’s go back past the 80s, eh?  How about some Traffic?  This is one of my all time favorite songs and I think it really is very apropos to IR’s current musical counterpoint.

Sometimes I feel so uninspired
Sometimes I feel like giving up
Sometimes I feel so very tired
Sometimes I feel like I’ve had enough
Sometimes you feel like you’ve been hired
Sometimes you feel like you’ve been bought
Sometimes you feel like your room’s been wired
Sometimes you feel like you’ve been caught
But don’t let it get you down
There is no reason for not failing
You’ve got to smile and turn the other cheek
So today you might get up
But by tomorrow you’ll be sailing
And you won’t even hear these words I speak
Some people want to be so desired
Some people can’t stand the light of day
Somebody’s laughing while someone is crying
But for to want in the close of the day
But sometimes I feel like my head is spinning
I’m gonna cave with all I see
I don’t know who’s losing and I don’t care who’s winning
Hardship and trouble following me

It’s not Irvine, but there is some pretty nasty competition in San Clemente.  Two houses in particular are right next door to each other.

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=S508849&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=cbqv3f12&source=SOCALMLS

Purchased 1/23/07 for $707k

Listed 28-days ago for $689k, now reduced to $599k.

The next door neighbor is also a short sale.  Only problem is their asking price is $695k for less home.  Guess they are unaware their neighbor just cut out any hope for getting their price of $695!!

http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=S498001&page=1&property_type=SFR&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=9lxvqk37&source=SOCALMLS

That’s going to leave a mark!!  Think these neighbors will be friends when this is all said and done?

Real estate as mystery boxes!  Too funny!

Westpark may fight it out with Quail Ridge to be the biggest bloodbath in Irvine over the next few years.  It has a nice location, but it is soul-less (more so than a lot of Irvine), VERY dated (it could be a late ‘80s time capsule) and quite overpriced in the bubble.

I think Turtle Rock is in the best shape, as many people there have unreal amounts of equity, but with the magnitude of the false price spike, I think the term “best shape” is quite relative.

For an income of 80 grand, you only get an eensy weensy 800 square feet?  Even after reductions?  Keep on renting guys.

I agree.  Also I would think that Northwood and Woodbridge will be OK too.  The older parts of Irvine should weather this fine because there are many long term owners for whom this is a paper gain/loss.

Sure, there will be a number of HELOC’d and late buyer catastrophes but because there will be small number of homes on sale you won’t see an avalanche of REOs on the market.

TR, in particular, should do fine because of the mess in TRidge.  As the newer homes went on a ballistic price path, TR did not wholly partake on that path, hence while TR at 500/600 sq foot was overpriced, TRidge at 800+ was sustained only by 100LTV, Neg Am intravenous injections.

Now that the easy money drug is being withdrawn, TR will slide down to more reasonable levels ( 350 -> 450 ) while TRidge will crater.  In fact, once TRidge homes hit the “used” market, people will start to notice how tight they are and how small the lots are.  At that point, the much larger TR will suddenly look a lot more “exciting”.

Woodbridge and Northwood will be impacted somewhat by their lower prices and competition… However they have larger lots and the neighborhoods feel larger.  I will caveat that Woodbridge has too many condos and small homes in the inner loops.  Those won’t sustain prices above 350 sq/foot when this is done.

Just my impressions.  However, I remember that I was astonished when our homes in the Broadmoor went over 300 bucks per square foot back in late 01.

Puts in perspective.  These 1/1s are the kind of place a parent puts the down payment of 20% on for their college kid and the college kid then makes the monthly ‘rent’ payment.  At the end of school, you sell the place hopefully getting your principal plus inflation back and maybe a little more.

When I sold real estate back in the late 90s I farmed the Brio track.  I remember selling some of the 1 bedrooms for about 140K and 2 bedrooms for 225k. It has been about 6 years since I have seen the prices and I can’t believe the 1 bedrooms got up to 400k.  You can go right across the street and rent an apartment for 50% less a month.

I used to live in this community. Bought a 1+1, 917 sq. ft unit in 1999 and sold in May of ‘05 (How’s that for timing?) The place took two weeks to sell and profit was close to $300k. I actually had a case of sellers remorse for a while as prices continued to rise but now I have a smirk on my face. As I recall, the person who bought my place put a whopping 5% down and is no doubt facing a rate reset.
I enjoyed the community. The HOA was really good - very proactive. The stairs up to my unit were rebuilt, buildings painted, pools well maintained, grass cut and hedges trimmed all for less than $200 per month.
My unit was upstairs and received sunlight from sun up to sun down. The featured property here is downstairs, gets absolutely zero sunlight and faces another building that is about 15 feet away so if you have your windows open you will hear other people’s tv, stereo, voices and bodily functions. I could not for the life of me imagine living in this place, and paying through the nose to do so. If it sells for the current asking price I will be shocked.
Some units in this community are pretty decent, especially some of the larger units that are upstairs, but these downstairs units featured here really blow. They have a lot further to fall, IMHO.

Yea, you can see all these bankers sitting around a table in NYC looking at the IHB on their computers saying…........

Holy sh**, look at this, you mean we own all these crappy little places in Irvine…..............these place are only worth 1/3 of the mortgage value…......you mean our 100 billion dollar mortgage portfolio is really only worth 33 billion dollars…....damn. ouch. aaaaaaaaargh.

Just remembered this: Earlier this year, April or so, a former neighbor called and asked me to help her move some furniture around. Reluctantly said ok. I get there and a couple of pieces are too heavy for just her and I, so she goes to get another neighbor to assist. We exchange pleasantries and I mention I used to live near here, but sold. Oddly enough we had never met but he said he and family have lived here for about 5 years. I mentioned I was biding my time, waiting for prices to come down some so I could get back in. He shoots me this look like I had just kidnapped the Lindberg baby. Somehow my statement had offended him. “They won’t,” he said. End of conversation on that topic. He seemed so bent out of shape that I didn’t have the heart to tell him about the IHB, but damn, I wish I did.
My former neighbor (whose furniture I was moving) is another kool-aid drinker. She used to maintain that her place was worth a good $50k to $75k premium to mine, no matter they had the same exact floorplan. Why? She put in some crown molding that I didn’t have and she has a two car garage whereas mine was just a one-car. Somehow I don’t think she’ll be getting that premium anymore…

OT but I didn’t see a post from you yet on this:

... Lennar has decided to temporarily stop taking orders at one of its largest and highest-profile projects in southern California - Central Park West in Irvine. The Miami-based builder has also postponed construction of two high-rise projects in Anaheim, known as A-Town Metro and A-Town Stadium.

Central Park West ... sprawling over four city blocks, was supposed to start moving in its first buyers last month. But company officials concluded that too much of the village was still under construction for early buyers to be able to fully appreciate its amenities and living environment. ... The builder has refunded earnest money to buyers who had already purchased homes there. For the time being, Lennar is keeping open Central Park West’s sale office, which is across the street from the massive construction site.

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=605544

Almost half a million clams for a 1 bedroom apartment?!

I used to enjoy reading these posts about severe price reductions, greed-mongers with poor timing, confounding wishing prices…but it’s not fun anymore. 

In fact, it’s really depressing. 

These sellers and their agents obviously have a mental illness.  They are severely deluded, creeping up on insanity, and it’s just painful to witness their obliviousness to what’s happening to them (and what’s about to).

It’s kind of like the first few episodes of American Idol when the producers slip in someone who is CLEARLY mentally retarded or at least is a few fries short of a Happy Meal.  You know that feeling when the judges laugh at their horrendous performance and you laugh at home along with them…then you suddenly realize the singer has NO IDEA what everyone is laughing about.  They truly believe they are talented and just gave a phenomenal, bring-down-the-house performance.  Then you start to feel guilty for laughing at a vulnerable, tragic person, and you don’t quite feel right for a few days afterward.

That’s how I feel today.

Yup.  I live in Quail Hill and it is getting blitzkrieg’d with for sale signs.  I’ve noticed quite a bit of FSBO signs as well.

As for these 1 bd units it is unbelievable.  Simply unbelievable.  I can only shake my head in utter disbelief @ these prices.  And by the way…what is “newer carpet?”  Is that interchangeable with “slightly stained?”

although I am bearish on West Park as well, the house for sale down the street from me there has been getting some nibbles from immigrants with all cash offers.  evidently, there are still plenty of greater fools over there in Taiwan so I wouldn’t hold a funeral yet for West Park.  The amount being offered surprised me—although significantly below asking price, it was still bubbly IMHO.

Believe me, no one on Wall Street wants to know the true value of their securities. They’re just hoping to hold them long enough for the housing market to get back to bubble times.

But it’s not going to happen for at least another 20 years.

The first featured property is actually 3403 Ladrillo with a NOD filed for $416k.  Just got the alert this morning.

I just don’t understand why anyone would buy one of these “apartments” to live in. How did apartments that you would rent become “homes” that warranted owning and making a mortgage payment on? I guess I can understand how SFH’s would have been subject to the crazy runup during the bubble but how did “apartments” get included as well? The last time I mentioned this someone responded by saying that in their particular situation at a specific time they came out a few bucks ahead by owning their “apartment” verses renting. But owning entails a whole host of responsibilitiesthat renting does not. And of course the fact that you need to take a large portion of potential investment money and put it towards a purchase in the form of a down payment cannot be ignored. I’m at a loss trying to understand why people would feel compelled to make the financial committmentsacrfice neccessary to own and “apartment.”

Am I the only one who has no interest in owning an “apartment” to live in?

And then there’s this to contend with, it’s not just the ridiculous sales prices of these small condos, it’s the HOA fees and taxes.  Even pretending the properties themselves sold a “reasonable” price, the taxes and HOA fees are likely to double that monthly cost.  Who will pay that?  Well, who aside from people with money to burn and people who aren’t getting “free” money from the bank are going to pay this money?

This is one the things I don’t understand about the bubble.  Ok, fundamentals were ignored.  Loan money was essentially free as everyone could “make” money just by owning something.  But didn’t they also look at the costs to actually own these properties?  And while this probably applies more to mcmansions and SFRs than these condos, it still has an impact.

My mortgage is $650 per month.  My taxes are a little more than another $100 per month (and no, I’m not saying where I love is better because of this, that’s not my point).  Throughout California, from what I’ve read, that might cover taxes, Mello Roos and HOA fees on most places offered for sale.  It’s like the interest only adjustable all over again.

At the part of San Diego I’m looking at relocating to (someday, not soon) it’s possible, probably likely that the prices could drop by 50%.  Even with that taken into consideration, the taxes and fees could double a prospective mortgage payment.

And please, if I’m missing something here I would love an explanation.

Jim, although I share much of the emotion of what you wrote I can answer that in two ways but before I do, I have to set some preconditions.  Those preconditions are that the prices of the aforementioned (errr, I have to say it) “apartment homes”, let’s just call them condos, have to bear some semblance to reasonable, fundamental values.  If they do I could be the owner of one as I would love to have a relatively trouble free place in California to spend time at that would be low cost and require no maintenance.  I can see some single people or young couples possibly wanting to buy something like this if they too did not want deal with the larger responsibilities of home ownership but needed to invest in property for financial reasons.

Again, with all that said, half a million dollars for an apartment in Irvine isn’t reasonable (unless there’s a couple of hundred large tucked into one of the spacious closets).

There’s nothing intrinsically wrong with small places to live, even places such as these.  It’s just the money it costs to do so is way out of line with reality.

That’s just my opinion and now that I’m done sound grampa Simpson, I’ll shut up.

I was waiting for a Westpark post, thanks. Most, if not all of the SFRs/condos for sale have crazy expectations. I too agree that immigrant nibbling will sustain the pricing for 6 months.

Looks like another HELOC implosion. Based on their purchase price, I assumed they still had equity.

Right.

Why do I want to pay taxes, when I can live in the same neighborhoods, enjoy the well-maintained parks and established school system without paying a dime in taxes?  Or Association dues?

You guys need to check this out:
http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=605544

Lennar cancels huge Irvine and Anaheim projects.

” A-Town Metro and A-Town Stadium”...ha ha. 

I suppose only A-ho…..  oh nevermind

..........“The Miami-based builder..”.......I stopped reading when I read that.

My thoughts—the thought of living in one of these things—It’s like being in a college dorm all over again.  Small room(s) tucked into anonymous building.  Need a parking pass for visitors.  Don’t talk too loud or you might disturb the neighbors above.

Everything is taken care of for you, they even strategically locate generic national chain eateries and Starbucks that hire and train anonymous people within ‘walking distance’.

That isn’t a home to me.  Get a place that you want to cook, clean, do some yardwork, go out back and play with my dog and kids in our own space.  I don’t unerstand why I would want my family all the time hanging out in the ‘ammenities’ that my $400 HOA would pay for.

Never would I buy one of these things—unless the price was so low that I could make money renting it to a student or something.

Just my thoughts.

Oh, come on.  Your bubble is worse than our bubble.

My honest realtor buddy just sold a house after a 100,000 decrease.
The house the seller is buying will also be cheaper, so it’s just paper.

Lennar was sued here after hurricane Andrew for the defects in its contruction.  Lennar may be yuckky, but Miami is weird and interesting.

Are you not going to read my posts because they are coming from Miami?  Sniff, sniff.  (Actually Hialeah)

I just saw the two san clemente homes and 695K has to be extremely depressed..  I mean in every aspects of house, 599K looks better.  Kitchen is more contemporary, back yard looks less cramped, 599K is BIGGER, curb appeal is better..  Wow!  695K has to have a bucket of tomatoes standing by for when the 599K comes out to get the morning paper.

My money is now on a package deal to IAC.

Some, but not plenty. There will always be a few buyers who are not sensitive to price for whatever reason. Just aren’t enough of them to make a market.

There is no explanation. It’s crazy. What’s worse is that lots of people are willing to pay it. You can argue all day long about what a stupid idea it is, but who cares when there’s a line of idiots getting out their checkbooks.

What’s funny about the San Clemente propery @ $599k is that it took forever for the previous owner to sell the home @ $707k, was on the market for a long time in the upper $700’s.

Along came the new FB and 6-months later there is huge losses.  I could see this coming from a mile away as the new FB (I mean owner) had a brand new H2 Hummer repo’d just a few months after moving into the property.  Now it’s a short sale…  must have been one of the last 100% financed deals in the area.

The guy next door for $695k (also a short sale) is desperately searching for a new FB to bail them out… their Realtor held cheesy BBQs, etc to attract First Time Buyers, investors, & retirees.  When has $695k been a starter home?  6-months ago this same house was listed for $795k.  4 years ago all of the homes on this street were within reach of First Time Buyers.

I doubt that either of these places will sell even for $550k.  As a plus they are located on a golf course (if you want to even call it a golf course—Shorecliffs aka The Ditch), however the street they are on is extremely busy with lots of traffic going inland towards Forester Ranch & Talega… the traffic noise is horrendous.

There is 3 Shady Canyon properties getting close to selling…big ones. Same agent (JOHN MCMONIGLE) is lisitng each property, that some serious commission…Any inside info out there???

Pending Sales:
U7002075 P 51 Golden Eagle Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890F6 $5,995,000 no sq footage info, must be big, maybe 5 or 6k sq ft. $1 million in landscaping on a 33,000 sq ft lot. Bullbutter!

U6601263 P 3 Redbird Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890E5 $3,295,000 4 5 4240 (Mark McGwire place) note: Total Assessed Value: 4,004,256.00

Back-up offer:
  U7003406 B 31 Salt Bush Irvine/ Turtle Rock 890F3 $6,750,000 5 5.5 6600
  These will tilt the numbers in the 92603 toward the agents camp.

“Newer Carpet”
Hehehe! Who do they want to fool with this phrase? I’m very certain that “newer carpet” means it isn’t quite as old as the stinking thing grandma has been stomping on for thirty years now…
:D

LM, of course I’m not arguing about the fees and taxes themselves.  I’m just pointing out that at least on the low end, they can quickly double the cost of owning a given property.  So while we look at mortgage payments, they’re not the entire story by any means.  Again, that’s obvious but without seeing those numbers here it’s, I think, taken for granted.

That’s all.

Why would anyone want to live in a dentist’s office?