Even $560K would be on the high end. Remember that this house is still only 2000 sq.ft. Not a very big home and certainly not for well north of half a million. If it sells at all in the next two years they should consider themselves lucky, knife catcher indeed. I’d wager $200 to $215/sq. foot would make it an affordable home for a first time move-up buyer. That’s puts my estimated sell price at about $430,000. With that said, I might consider it at $450K to $490K.
I think the key to these size and type of homes selling in the next few years will be can the loan conform with 15 to 20% down. Just off the top of my head, I’d call that a “tipping point”. My 1.75 cents ... (2 cents minus currency deflation).
Posted by former_irvine_resident on 10/24/07 at 03:56 AM
$560,000 in 2003? Sound about right for 2008 as well. ——-
Posted by Diana K on 10/24/07 at 05:46 AM
If they actually slashed the price to $850K, I bet they could still find a knife-catcher to buy it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they waited a year to go that low, & then had to sell it close to the $700K they have on the first.
That said, I have to agree with IR & say it’s really worth no more than the 2003 price, if you look at sq ft & rental prices.
Posted by lee in irvine on 10/24/07 at 05:47 AM
“BTW, this sold for $560,000 on 2/28/2003. Don’t be surprised if we see that price again in a few years.”
I think I would be much more surprised if it didn’t drop below $560,000 in the next few years.
BTW, the funny money is now gone (not that we didn’t already know that). The investment banks are getting killed by this mess. This morning it was Merrill Lynch’s turn.
Per The WSJ:
“Merrill Lynch & Co. swung to a wider-than-projected third-quarter net loss because of $7.9 billion in write-downs on collateralized debt obligations and subprime mortgages.”
Posted by ocrebel on 10/24/07 at 05:48 AM
close to 1M for a 3/2.5 in Irvine? you must have been joking.
I don’t pay even 560K for this home. It’s a starter home God sake
Posted by lawyerliz on 10/24/07 at 06:01 AM
Well, it is a cute little house.
That’s all. In Florida even at the very height of the boom, for
a million bucks, you got something distinctive.
Does anybody other than me think that these write offs are the
minimum that the banks, and other writers-off felt that they
could get away with, and the true losses are vastly greater?
Posted by Irvinexpat on 10/24/07 at 06:11 AM
Lots are approx 5,000 sq ft in this tract, what a joke.
Posted by Larrygg on 10/24/07 at 06:17 AM
A million bucks for that? People are stupid! And greedy!
Posted by Don from the Tanning Salon on 10/24/07 at 06:28 AM
Yep, that’s a starter home already, and wildly overpriced.
Question:
Should price per square foot be a rough constant? And why?
Can it (should it) vary with price point? Meaning: does a larger home deserve a higher price per square foot, with the assumption it is probably a nicer home/nicer neighborhood and there is a built in premium. Or should it paradoxically be lower, as the building costs are on economies of scale for a larger home. Should a smaller house, or a better designed house have a higher price per square foot value because of scarcity of space?
What say you, IR? Others?
Posted by Irvinexpat on 10/24/07 at 06:30 AM
Site size is nowhere to be found. The agents make this omission on regular basis. She will probably claim it was a clerical error and blame it on her assitant.
BTW, The listing agent today was the listing agent in back in 2005 when this bag holder had $150k burning a hole in his pocket.
Imagine their discussions on how real estate in OC never goes down.
The larger the home, the lower the construction cost per square foot because the extra space tends to be bedrooms and open living spaces which are less expensive to construct.
Large homes tend to sell for less on a per-square-foot basis, particularly when you compare them to small condos.
That explains why they don’t want to disclose the lot size.
Posted by Irvinexpat on 10/24/07 at 06:43 AM
The Price per sq ft tool works in Irvine when used on newer homes and condos. But when older homes with varying degrees of renovations are being compared, it does not work.
Posted by TeaLeaf on 10/24/07 at 06:48 AM
Remember that the dirt has value, as well—larger homes on the same size lot should have a relatively lower PSF.
Posted by tonye on 10/24/07 at 07:09 AM
This home’s pricing is a perfect example of the greed that surrounded new homes in the last few years.
This was a new home that was purchased by the first owners with speculation in mind. They sold it within three years and almost doubled their money.
Meanwhile, folks that wanted to buy a house to LIVE IN were being priced out by the greed of the speculators and builders. The builders kept raising prices and the speculators didn’t care about the quality of their loan because they weren’t planning on keeping the house past the loan resetting terms.
Folks that already had homes were frozen out from the “move up” market too because of the huge change in prices. Newer homes appreciated like crazy for no rational reason. For example, while TR went up 50%, TRidge went up 100%.
Well, now the time of reckoning is here. TRidge is dropping like a rock and homes like this one in Northpark are coming back to Southpark. That is… this home should sell for 600K… that would be around 300 per square foot max.
And even that price may be too high. Northpark is way inland and after the recent fire people may rethink going up so far into the hills. Plus it’s tight with a small lot, has fairly high HOA fees and deals with a Mello Roos district.
One million for this? Whoever paid that much in 06 was simply financially irresponsible and/or negligent.
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/24/07 at 07:12 AM
26.2% annual rate of return. Some chump, bought this place which was inflated when but from the builder during the rush in 2003 for just short of doubling in less than three years. In fact, at that rate of appreciation, the home would have doubled in three years.
That’s just stupid.
We’ll see $560K briefly, as we blow right on past it. IMHO, 2003 would have been the peak of the RE cycle. Prices would have pulled back from there except we pull the no capital gains taxes trick, put fed funds through the floor and gave loans to anything that put an alleged name on a loan application.
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/24/07 at 07:24 AM
bought not but. BTW, I corrected that before I pushed add comment. I think that’s the 2nd or 3rd time that has happened.
Posted by John on 10/24/07 at 07:31 AM
Yep. Almost a million bucks and the most prominent feature of the backyard is…... a birdbath?! WTF
Posted by FamilyGuy on 10/24/07 at 07:41 AM
Looking at the comps:
31 Flora Springs 3/2 sold on 9/13 for $1,100,000
48 Whitford 3/3 sold on 10/2 for $1,050,000
On face value, it would seem the list price is certainly within reason based on very current comps. But on a PSF basis, this house is priced higher at $484 PSF compared to $380-$385 on the comps above. HOWEVER, I am a little suspect about the the 2,000 SF claim on Redfin, as I can’t find any other properties in this neighborhood with that SF.
Perhaps someone knows this neighborhood and can shed some light?
In any event, Price per SF is not a true linear scale, so it would not be appropriate to apply the PSF from the comps above to the size of this property. But it would give you a floor on the current value, which would be $770K or so.
IMHO, this house will not sell for below $900K.
Posted by Fake Wealth Created on 10/24/07 at 07:44 AM
Wow, an actual single story SFR built in Irvine, new construction. Some what anachronistic don’t you think?
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 07:48 AM
Good job IR with your choice of black music! Although I don’t think that’s what poster “Dr. Ruth"had in mine when she asked for black music.
I am listening to these blow-hards from the White House summit talk about “everything EXCEPT for housing is doing excellent!” WTF? Idiots, all of them. Funny, I didn’t hear them mention that consumer spending accounts for roughly 3/4 of our nation’s economy, not exports.
Posted by Don from the Tanning Salon on 10/24/07 at 07:52 AM
There are actually only 5 photos of the place, the rest are grounds or a dupe. And while the photos are not a total debacle, as has been seen in the past, it’s a shame when you trumpet doing your basic job. What is nextYou don’t have to search too far to find a schlub with a DSLR shooting 6 MP or higher to snap stuff like this. And staging a home is part of the job. Final sale on this will be a greater fool who thinks he/she is getting a bargain at 799k. They’ll watch it sink further, below 6, and probably panic too.
I suspect it is an accurate size because it is a single story. You are also probably correct that someone will buy this place for $900K or above. Whether or not that is a good idea is another issue.
Posted by NanoWest on 10/24/07 at 08:04 AM
I agree with everything that you are saying here…..except that this will sell for $250.00 PSF. That would put the house at $500,0000. Fact is that not so many can afford a 1/2 million dollar home.
Posted by Kim on 10/24/07 at 08:04 AM
I’m missing something…there are 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. According to the realtor, there are 2 master bedrooms. So the occupant of the 3rd bedroom has only a 1/2 bath to use? Or has to go through someone else’s bedroom to get to the shower?
Posted by buster on 10/24/07 at 08:47 AM
Will never sell at this price for one simple reason: The banks won’t do a jumbo on this. It will never appraise out, and with banks having to lend their OWN money for jumbos, they are going to be ultra conservative when it comes to LTV. So unless the seller wants to do some “seller financing,” it’s not going to move anywhere near this price. Of course, “seller financing” really isn’t selling since the “seller” still bears the risk of loss in a market decline.
Posted by CK on 10/24/07 at 09:00 AM
I’d buy this for $560K. That’s $280 sq ft—- about right for a neighborhood like North Park Square. This is a nice house in a very nice neighborhood, and IMO—- far from a starter. A starter home in Irvine is a 1400 sq ft townhouse or condo. The fact that this is a one level home would hold a lot of appeal for many people, not to mention that this is far from starter appointed. Certainly $1M is crazy, but to think this will sink to $500k or less in Irvine?. Not so much. Now, I’m sure there will be a hundred downers on this blog who come out of the woodwork and say what a POS this house is and how it should cost $250k max and if you buy this North Park house your kids will end up in prison because they will go to TUSD…..
Posted by MMG on 10/24/07 at 09:09 AM
I vote for 400s soon
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 09:16 AM
Assuming that the 560k price in 2003 was not already artificially inflated, and a respectful annual appreciation of 6%, the property would be valued at just under 707k. 6% appreciation is far better than any long term/low risk investment yield over the past 7 years, and its twice the rate of inflation.
a 707k price corresponds to a 27% price reduction off the existing list price of 968k. I think this place will be worth less than 707k in a few years. This is why leverage can hurt you. People who purchased from 2002-2004 could reduce the asking prices 25%-30% across the board and they’d still come out ahead. The problem is, you have to sell your property for more than what you owe on it, and too many people used their homes as piggybanks.
Posted by Paul Hillr on 10/24/07 at 09:17 AM
I’m not going to argue what this house may or may not sell for, now or in the future. I do know that if I was looking for a home in that area I would be attracted to that one. Fairly new, Spanish with red tile roof, and one story. Outside of the cap lock addiction that realtors can’t seem to kick, this one looks to be doing a fair job of presenting the home in an emotional way. While those of us [me] who lately have nothing better to do than read and post in blogs can pick a million holes, I think an everyday buyer might bite on this home. If it doesn’t sell I suspect it won’t be from a lack of interest.
My field is jumbo and super jumbo loans, and yes, business stinks. Thanks for asking. Anyway, I just wanted to say that if the house sold at a price a bit lower than the last comps, I don’t think a buyer with high fico’s and good reserves would have a problem, even reduced doc, although rates a good bit better with tax returns.
Posted by MMG on 10/24/07 at 09:19 AM
CK—do your initials stand for catching knife just kidding.
right now many bigger (as good as this one) homes are selling for way less than one million, including in IRVINE where everyone makes a mil a year. I dont have examples but maybe one of the other brilliant posters can give examples.
at 560k, a household income should make roughly 180k to afford this house. at 180k you should be able to afford something a little bigger. JMHO
Posted by CK on 10/24/07 at 09:29 AM
MMG….That’s a good one…I may need to change my callsign now. I’m just trying to be realistic. Sure, I’d love to pay $450K or less for this house. But I also think that there is also an inflation factor from 2003 we must consider. My family fits the $560k profile perfectly, and this is a house that would suit us perfectly. More sq ft just means a bigger electric bill to cool that baby. So if I’m a knife catcher to consider buying this at $560K, I can live with that label….
Wow. That price, or even the lower 500k price would buy quite the place where I live (Atlanta). Still the forclosures here are way up and builders a cutting price on homes for sale. Some are trying a first six months “free” gimick. But I’ve lived around San Francisco before, so I do understand how pricey homes can be out there.
Posted by CK on 10/24/07 at 09:40 AM
Yeah, but would difference in the OC to Atlanta price be eaten up in the cost of importing your water from Lake Michigan?
Posted by NanoWest on 10/24/07 at 10:15 AM
Good point about leverage…....when it works for you its great, when it works against you, its painful
Posted by NanoWest on 10/24/07 at 10:18 AM
Well,
You go to the 1/2 bathroom and empty 1/2 of you bladder. Then you take a shower and wash the left 1/2 of your body.
It is a 1/2 bathroom for goodness sakes!!!
Posted by jwbrown77 on 10/24/07 at 10:31 AM
But it says to “HURRY.”
Damnit, where are my keys?
Posted by NO BUBBLE IN LA on 10/24/07 at 11:16 AM
<blockquote cite=“Good job IR with your choice of black music! Although I don’t think that’s what poster “Dr. Ruth”had in mine when she asked for black music.”>
While IR is providing service/entertainment/expertise for all to benefit without regards who takes part in this community, comments like yours are the true indicator that OC on average is a pathetic bunch. I suspect that if you’ve been born in OC that you’ve never even seen a black man before.
Posted by rex on 10/24/07 at 11:17 AM
Yeah..Importing from Colorado is cheaper.
Posted by tonye on 10/24/07 at 11:21 AM
(1) Many can afford a 500K house. With a 20% down, it’s a 400K mortgage, that is a conforming loan and your payment would be around $2400 a month or so. If you went in with a 10% down and PMI, you’d be looking at a jumbo and the payment would be $2700 or so. Quite doable.
(2) You make an interesting point. If we assume that this house was OVERPRICED the day it got sold brand new. That is, the builder was selling these homes into a frenzy and overpricing them, it’s likely thaat this would be a 400K house at the lowest part of the market. When I first quoted the 250 per sq. foot I was having some trouble believing it too because I just don’t see homes on the East Side of the Santa Ana Fwy going for that much per square foot when homes in Westpark and Woodbridge go for the same.
So, it may be that the natural price for a home like this… which is in reality more of a condo than a SFH, would have been 180 when it was new and 200 after allowing for an appreciation of several years.
This has to be a scary thought for everyone who bought a new home since ‘02. The idea that their homes were overpriced from day one.
And, I remember going to TRidge back in 01 and 02 and the prices per square foot were like 50% higher than TR. My wife and I thought they were all overpriced even in the early phases of the build out.
Ouch.
Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 10/24/07 at 11:31 AM
Perhaps the bagholder thought, “Well, this realtor did such a good job of suckering me into buying this place for twice at what it was worth, perhaps she can work her magic on someone else?”
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 11:39 AM
Actually I grew up in Ohio and Minnesota and I have had many experiences with many people of African descent. I can start spouting off a bunch of numbers but I won’t. Louis Armstrong’s music is classic and still easy to listen to. Ludacris or Kanye West are not.
Posted by Diana K on 10/24/07 at 11:43 AM
I think the write-offs are temp. They will have to increase them as time goes on.
Exactly Tonye. The market in late ‘01 and ‘02 was cresting, then loan products turned it into speculation central.
If you look back at the historical price graph and mentally map in the turning of the peak starting 2002, and flatlining in 2003 ... I think you will see just how far above a sustainable cycle it really has gone.
Also note the steepening of the rent curve and realize that it also is not sustainable due to the lack of income growth to support it.
Posted by Former Irvine Student on 10/24/07 at 12:34 PM
I grew up in Irvine and I can tell you that there were two black students in my entire elementary school. One, whose parents were UCI professors, left after only one month because the teacher treated him like he was a retard. After that I didn’t see any black students until I got go high school and those students were bussed in from the nearby military bases.
Posted by lawyerliz on 10/24/07 at 01:02 PM
Also, I understand that Atlanta is about to totally run
out of water.
Hope it rains, Atlanta-person!!
Posted by lawyerliz on 10/24/07 at 02:02 PM
In Dade County Florida, you can go on the tax assessor’s website, and often tho not always, you can get the square footage of the lot.
Also, an aerial view, with rough subdivision lines drawn around the houses. Does the tax assessor there post this info?
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 03:07 PM
I found this over @ the HP site and I am blown away that I did not know this.
When calculating the sales number they use the NEW SEASONAL PACE compared to the PREVIOUS SEASONAL PACE. In other words as of August 31st we were “on pace” to hit 5.38 Million sold units by dec 31st. As of September 30th we were only on pace to sell 5.04 million units. So according to the NAR the pace of existing home sales slowed by only 8%! Talk about twisting the numbers, this makes me want to vomit!
Here are the actual sales numbers for August and September….as posted by HP.
Sept 2007: 409,000 sales (down 29% versus last month, down 23% versus last year)
Sept 2006: 529,000 sales
August 2007: 575,000 sales
That’s like saying a baseball player’s “estimated season-ending batting average fell from .325 to .310, for the month of september when his actual batting average for the month of september was only .250
This is extraordinary my friends. Am I the only one that just realized this???
Posted by Paul Hiller on 10/24/07 at 03:58 PM
No. It’s been reported all day. I’ve seen it on 4 other blogs since this morning. Really good catch, though. I sure would not have spotted it on my own.
Posted by ocrebel on 10/24/07 at 05:05 PM
setting aside ridiculous price, photos of these two neighboring houses are quite unique (construction photos:
I think the older neighborhoods will go back to mid to late 03 pricing. They were slower to take off.
The new homes. OTOH, oh boy… anything built after 01 is gonna be hit really hard. I think all the new homes built since 02 were overpriced with a huge premium over existing homes.
At some point, the newer homes need to come into conformance with existing homes. Maybe even lower as the quality of building sort of deteriorated.
Newer homes are NOT worth a 50% premium over older but well maintained homes.
Posted by doug r on 10/24/07 at 06:51 PM
I bid $160k!
Posted by Genius on 10/24/07 at 07:00 PM
Pretty much sums up my thoughts.
Posted by Genius on 10/24/07 at 07:01 PM
IR NEEDS to use Good Life by Kanye for one of these postings. It’s perfect. DO IT!
Posted by I hate angry renters on 10/24/07 at 09:03 PM
You guys are pretty sad. Don’t you have anything better to do than sit around all day complaining about high prices? These bubble blogs are a joke. Slanted opinions and nothing but angry renters. You fools missed the boat. Too bad. Enjoy renting and being miserable for the rest of your lives.
Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 10/24/07 at 09:17 PM
We will enjoy renting from you for half of what you pay to the bank to “own” it!
Are you enjoying “fall”?
I am, except for all the smoke. It permeates everything in the house and the ashes clog the AC intake filters. Plus, fire insurance will surely go up after this episode. But those aren’t my problems, they’re yours!
I wish the bitter debtors would come by more often. They are always good for a laugh.
Posted by awgee on 10/25/07 at 05:44 AM
“You fools missed the boat.”
But why do these “haters” always assume that we didn’t own property during the bubble?
Posted by Lost Cause on 10/25/07 at 09:26 AM
Missed the boat? Anyone who didn’t sell missed the boat. I hate to be stuck with one of several identical Irvine crapboxes, all for sale. You can’t buy that kind of entertainment.
Posted by furious sugar on 10/25/07 at 05:25 PM
Though I am new to this blog- I think that IR and the regular contributors come about their opinions in an well thought out and honest way. And, it seems that IR is able to find daily examples of how our local market is trending (down).
So, Bubble in LA- perhaps you can locate several current Irvine listing/sales that bucks this trend. I think everyone here would find it interesting.
I’ll personally be willing to pay a higher price per square foot for a really well-designed small dwelling with fine architecture and elevated energy efficiency,and I believe more and more people will make a similar choice in coming years, as we begin to experience higher fuel prices and spot shortages of gas and oil.
I am also willing to pay extra for real beauty and real amenity. Like leather parquet floors, larger bathrooms, and extra closet space, not to mention things that make the house more functional and energy-efficient, like R-39 insulation, really high-grade windows that have real insulating properties, heavier pipes and wiring, and, dare I dream, a geothermal heating system.
I will take architecture, funtionality, and luxury materials over size, anytime. A larger house or apt just means more housework and more space to fill with stuff I don’t need and that clutters up my life.
The age of oversized, cheaply built houses may be behind us. In the 50s and 60s, most middle-income families lived in less than 2000 sq ft, mostly WAY less.
Posted by george8 on 03/09/08 at 06:48 AM
Can anyone check this out? If this is as good as it looks on paper, it will be a giant comp. killer for the featured property. It is more than $350k below their listing price.
128 LONG GRASS, Irvine, CA 92618
3/4, 2106 sf, $614,880
How is this development, location wise? New construction at less than $300/sf.
Just FORGET about importing water from Lake Michigan, to Atlanta or Vegas or any other overbuilt place!
It will NOT happen.
The American states and Canadian provinces in the Great Lakes watershed have signed one of the most tightly-worded and protective water pacts ever written, that specifically prohibit exporting water beyond a fairly circumscribed area close to the lake.
Even newer Chicago and Milwaukee suburbs that lie just outside the watershed cannot import Lake Michigan water. Suburbs in Lake County that did previous to the agreement are “grandfathered” in, but no new agreements can be made.
Plans are in the works now to once more reverse the Chicago River so that it will once more drain into the lake, now that the river no longer receives sewege. This will put Chicago completely into compliance with the pact.
The pact was forged in response to the threat to our water supply from places like Las Vegas- someone had proposed building a pipeline that would pipe our water to Vegas.
Atlanta might just have to deal with the fact that they’ve allowed their growth, especially sprawl-growth, to vastly overshoot their water supply, and adopt such remediation as limiting further suburban expansion.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 03/09/08 at 07:17 AM
$3800 to rent this? They must be smoking something.
$2950 will rent you (although smaller) 3 bedroom in Turtle Ridge.
It does look like they have a wishing rent to go with their WTF price. Interesting that even with their inflated asking rent, the value is is still well below asking. Realistically, this probably does rent closer to $3,000-3,200 for a value around $500K.
Posted by no_vaseline on 03/09/08 at 08:34 AM
That’s a trick question. The answer is neither.
They won’t rent it, and they won’t sell it - both for the same reason - they won’t lower the price.
I wonder what is larger - the ammount of value this home has lost in it’s first 138 days or the ammount it will lose going forward before the owners either grow a brain and cut their losses or chase the market all the way down?
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 03/09/08 at 11:09 AM
We currently rent an IAC apartment in this price range. They are currently advertising rents that are 10% below what they were getting last year in our complex. It looks like the people that supported WTF prices can’t even afford to rent in the area anymore. There must be a mass exodus because I’m noticing that across the board 3+ bedroom condo/apt/home rents are falling in the quail hill to harbor view home corridor.
Posted by tonye on 03/09/08 at 11:11 AM
Agreed. Maybe even a little bit lower as the pendulum swings.
Posted by tonye on 03/09/08 at 11:18 AM
Leather parket floors?
Does that go with the hooks on the wall and ceiling? ;-D
Energy wise most new homes in SoCal already are. And when remodeling a home we also have those standards. In our post Enron world the greater the R value the more reasonable your electric bill.
Speaking of electric bills, areas near the ocean have much better weather. In Irvine, just a few miles make a huge difference. In TR and TRidge we don’t have to run the AC very often because of the ocean breeze, but if you go past the 405 then it heats up pretty quick and on the East side of the Santa Ana Fwy -where this home is- it’s mighty hotter and colder.
One of the issue of a larger home is the ability to have larger rooms. However this opportunity was squandered in many of the McMansions because they added a lot of wasted spaces (hallways, useless nooks) and then topped it off with a small parlor or casita in lieu of a proper living (front) room.
I agree with you that the era of 4000 sq foot McMansions will draw to a close. Indeed my 2700 sq foot home has more useable space that those monstrosities. It’s all in the design and the quality of construction.
But I still want to build a 500 sq foot room upstairs… it will make for a great TV/Stereo/music/card room.
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 11:38 AM
Are you guys kidding me?
This will go for $279k in 2012, and probably a lot LESS!
My source of info? That Montly Morgage Rate Reset chart.
In Addition:
You’ll have to REPLACE 80% of the of the shitty materials they used building it in the first place…Roof, 90% of the plumbing…etc
Geesh, you OC people are BEYOND STUPID.
Posted by zornundo on 03/09/08 at 11:52 AM
Take a breath and back away from the remodel. Invest in something more useful than another 500 sq ft of nothing. 2700 sq is reallly nice. why need more?
Posted by zornundo on 03/09/08 at 11:58 AM
oooo…turnkey!! IR, you need to add the turnkey graphic!
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 11:59 AM
Also, I see the a landfill that’s within 3 miles or so from NorthPark. Who would want to live so close to a landfill ?
$968k for this dump, sure go ahead….
Imagine the smell on a windy summer night….
Again, you dopes who live near there are BEYOND STUPID.
Posted by soapboxpolitico on 03/09/08 at 12:09 PM
IR - Here’s an excellent article if you REALLY want to start a furious blog commentary ... especially from bitter home debtors! I’d wager this would trigger some serious denial and some very fun commentary. Enjoy.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime
Posted by soapboxpolitico on 03/09/08 at 12:12 PM
All—slightly off topic but perhaps somewhat relative to the discussion of what is worth what and where .... “The Next Slum?” ....
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime
Enjoy.
Posted by tonye on 03/09/08 at 12:16 PM
The way be rebuilt the entire house in that part we ended up with a 600 sq foot second story deck that can support a small pool -or a second story. This includes electrical.
Hence adding three walls, a roof and a separate HAVC unit will not cost so much. Specially as the cost of residental remodelers is cratering.
If I could get the whole thing done for under $75K then it will be done. I figure I’ll plumb it for a bathroom in the future and that may add 5K to the construction.
A 24 by 20 by 12 room would make a great place for my Maggies.
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 12:35 PM
Speaking of the “The Next Slum?” …. I see that whole
area (Northpark, Portola…etc) being just that.
See that move Back to the Future 2 ?
Who would want to spend that much money to live next to a landFill (ie. City DUMP).
So sad. Buty then again “IR’s aptly named Cultural Pathology of OC.”
Rings oh so true…
Posted by CapitalismWorks on 03/09/08 at 01:07 PM
The entirety of Newport Coast is within a 3 mile radius of a landfill…
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 01:27 PM
” The entirety of Newport Coast is within a 3 mile radius of a landfill…”
You just PROVED my point…
Now I understand why the autisic birthrate in CA is SKYHIGH !!!
Have a nice day.
Posted by ipoplaya on 03/09/08 at 02:17 PM
Who let this joker jimmyjohnson on to this board?! There should be some kind of test taken before someone can post here… Should only allow people with 70+ IQs to participate.
Any fool who thinks a house in Northpark Square will be going for anywhere near $139 per sf at any time in recorded history should be committed, shot, or at least castrated so they absolutely cannot reproduce.
For $279K on this house to actually occur, they’d have to be giving houses away in Corona for free… I’d probably still pay $300K for this even if the same house in the IE cost zero bucks.
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 02:31 PM
“Comment by ipoplaya
2008-03-09 14:17:05
Who let this joker jimmyjohnson on to this board?! There should be some kind of test taken before someone can post here… Should only allow people with 70+ IQs to participate.
“
Ha! fat chance sucker! I live in the world of REALITY
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 03:01 PM
“Comment by ipoplaya”
hey Ipoplya,
I probably already own your ass.
You lost, keep on justifiying all you want, I win and you WILL LOOSE.
Ill bet my whole retirement $500k+ in SRS in whatever you’re invested in..
Ill own your ass in 2 years. or maybe I ALREADY own you! Like some many SUCKERS in OC.
Posted by 25w100k+ on 03/09/08 at 03:15 PM
300 per sq.ft at the bottom. You guys hoping for 250 are dreaming.
Posted by ipoplaya on 03/09/08 at 03:16 PM
At least you are entertaining JJ. Given that it would appear you can’t type or write, I have a feeling your “whole retirement” probably amounts to your Dairy Queen pension plan and your NASCAR collectibles, but by all means, please continue indulging in your WT rhetoric. It provides a nice reminder as to why I live here in Irvine…
Posted by 25w100k+ on 03/09/08 at 03:22 PM
I think it was satire. (I hope…)
Posted by 25w100k+ on 03/09/08 at 03:24 PM
what does “WILL LOOSE” mean?
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 03:24 PM
” It provides a nice reminder as to why I live here in Irvine…”
hahahahh that just PROVES MY POINT!!!!
You WILL lose SUCKER !
See ya in 2012 when you are living on the street sucker !
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 03:26 PM
“At least you are entertaining JJ. Given that it would appear you can’t type or write, I have a feeling your “whole retirement” probably amounts to your Dairy Queen pension plan and your NASCAR collectibles, but by all means,”
HAHAHH ROFL! Talk all you want SUCKER!
I ALREADY OWN your ass.
Posted by NoWow!way on 03/09/08 at 04:11 PM
I cannot believe how many people are holding onto property, waiting for the market to “come back”. I even met a flipper over xmas that was waiting to sell his new purchase in the “spring”.
The majority of people are not paying attention to the market or are at least in denial. I don’t care what the headlines say, people are a couple of years AT LEAST behind in what they know about real estate.
Keep an eye on this property. A floplord with this kind of equity burn is gonna get roasted at some point.
Arfer property, imol.
Posted by no_vaseline on 03/09/08 at 05:00 PM
Should I sign up as Kyle Busch now?
Posted by Lost Cause on 03/09/08 at 05:55 PM
But…but…but…Irvine has excellent schools! Clearly it is worth the extra $200,000 to buy there. I mean, a Harvard education costs how much?
Posted by jhill on 03/09/08 at 05:57 PM
OK, Irvine residents, pleeeze google your water situation. City of Irvine website gives average annual rainfall of 13-10 inches per year. This is an average over what scholars agree has been a very wet century. I suspect that in 2007 (for which I have found no numbers) it might have been half that. Orange County is now treating sewage to produce potable water. Do NOT laugh at Atlanta, or Phoenix, or whatever. We are all in big trouble, which is why I’m so cranky about water features and tropical landscaping in these properties.
Posted by Lost Cause on 03/09/08 at 06:04 PM
I looks like Florida. Too bad there are no hurricanes to take care of it, though.
Posted by pacman on 03/09/08 at 06:34 PM
does irvine have enough high income jobs to support the high housing costs of the area ?
Posted by blackbox on 03/09/08 at 06:51 PM
Wow, he hates us, he really does.
Haha, no big deal.
In fact, you just gave me a smile.
This must really be getting to you to write a oldie but goodie such as “bitter renter”
Don’t worry the market just has another 25% to 30% more to fall.
I’m sure you can handle it with all your realestate holding and all.
Bitter renters can pay for part of your motgages while the value goes down and down
The JPMorgan report included a revised bleaker forecast for subprime-related home prices. The bank now sees prices falling 30 percent, from its prior 25 percent forecast. Those prices have declined 14 percent since mid-2006, JPMorgan said.
haha, good one sparky!
I am a “bitter renter”, and I am very, very proud about that right about now. haha
Posted by soapboxpolitico on 03/09/08 at 11:33 AM
Even $560K would be on the high end. Remember that this house is still only 2000 sq.ft. Not a very big home and certainly not for well north of half a million. If it sells at all in the next two years they should consider themselves lucky, knife catcher indeed. I’d wager $200 to $215/sq. foot would make it an affordable home for a first time move-up buyer. That’s puts my estimated sell price at about $430,000. With that said, I might consider it at $450K to $490K.
I think the key to these size and type of homes selling in the next few years will be can the loan conform with 15 to 20% down. Just off the top of my head, I’d call that a “tipping point”. My 1.75 cents ... (2 cents minus currency deflation).
Posted by former_irvine_resident on 10/24/07 at 03:56 AM
$560,000 in 2003? Sound about right for 2008 as well.
——-
Posted by Diana K on 10/24/07 at 05:46 AM
If they actually slashed the price to $850K, I bet they could still find a knife-catcher to buy it.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they waited a year to go that low, & then had to sell it close to the $700K they have on the first.
That said, I have to agree with IR & say it’s really worth no more than the 2003 price, if you look at sq ft & rental prices.
Posted by lee in irvine on 10/24/07 at 05:47 AM
“BTW, this sold for $560,000 on 2/28/2003. Don’t be surprised if we see that price again in a few years.”
I think I would be much more surprised if it didn’t drop below $560,000 in the next few years.
BTW, the funny money is now gone (not that we didn’t already know that). The investment banks are getting killed by this mess. This morning it was Merrill Lynch’s turn.
Per The WSJ:
“Merrill Lynch & Co. swung to a wider-than-projected third-quarter net loss because of $7.9 billion in write-downs on collateralized debt obligations and subprime mortgages.”
Posted by ocrebel on 10/24/07 at 05:48 AM
close to 1M for a 3/2.5 in Irvine? you must have been joking.
I don’t pay even 560K for this home. It’s a starter home God sake
Posted by lawyerliz on 10/24/07 at 06:01 AM
Well, it is a cute little house.
That’s all. In Florida even at the very height of the boom, for
a million bucks, you got something distinctive.
Does anybody other than me think that these write offs are the
minimum that the banks, and other writers-off felt that they
could get away with, and the true losses are vastly greater?
Posted by Irvinexpat on 10/24/07 at 06:11 AM
Lots are approx 5,000 sq ft in this tract, what a joke.
Posted by Larrygg on 10/24/07 at 06:17 AM
A million bucks for that? People are stupid! And greedy!
Posted by Don from the Tanning Salon on 10/24/07 at 06:28 AM
Yep, that’s a starter home already, and wildly overpriced.
Question:
Should price per square foot be a rough constant? And why?
Can it (should it) vary with price point? Meaning: does a larger home deserve a higher price per square foot, with the assumption it is probably a nicer home/nicer neighborhood and there is a built in premium. Or should it paradoxically be lower, as the building costs are on economies of scale for a larger home. Should a smaller house, or a better designed house have a higher price per square foot value because of scarcity of space?
What say you, IR? Others?
Posted by Irvinexpat on 10/24/07 at 06:30 AM
Site size is nowhere to be found. The agents make this omission on regular basis. She will probably claim it was a clerical error and blame it on her assitant.
BTW, The listing agent today was the listing agent in back in 2005 when this bag holder had $150k burning a hole in his pocket.
Imagine their discussions on how real estate in OC never goes down.
Posted by IrvineRenter on 10/24/07 at 06:33 AM
The larger the home, the lower the construction cost per square foot because the extra space tends to be bedrooms and open living spaces which are less expensive to construct.
Large homes tend to sell for less on a per-square-foot basis, particularly when you compare them to small condos.
As for what they should be…
Posted by Mr Vincent on 10/24/07 at 06:37 AM
That explains why they don’t want to disclose the lot size.
Posted by Irvinexpat on 10/24/07 at 06:43 AM
The Price per sq ft tool works in Irvine when used on newer homes and condos. But when older homes with varying degrees of renovations are being compared, it does not work.
Posted by TeaLeaf on 10/24/07 at 06:48 AM
Remember that the dirt has value, as well—larger homes on the same size lot should have a relatively lower PSF.
Posted by tonye on 10/24/07 at 07:09 AM
This home’s pricing is a perfect example of the greed that surrounded new homes in the last few years.
This was a new home that was purchased by the first owners with speculation in mind. They sold it within three years and almost doubled their money.
Meanwhile, folks that wanted to buy a house to LIVE IN were being priced out by the greed of the speculators and builders. The builders kept raising prices and the speculators didn’t care about the quality of their loan because they weren’t planning on keeping the house past the loan resetting terms.
Folks that already had homes were frozen out from the “move up” market too because of the huge change in prices. Newer homes appreciated like crazy for no rational reason. For example, while TR went up 50%, TRidge went up 100%.
Well, now the time of reckoning is here. TRidge is dropping like a rock and homes like this one in Northpark are coming back to Southpark. That is… this home should sell for 600K… that would be around 300 per square foot max.
And even that price may be too high. Northpark is way inland and after the recent fire people may rethink going up so far into the hills. Plus it’s tight with a small lot, has fairly high HOA fees and deals with a Mello Roos district.
One million for this? Whoever paid that much in 06 was simply financially irresponsible and/or negligent.
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/24/07 at 07:12 AM
26.2% annual rate of return. Some chump, bought this place which was inflated when but from the builder during the rush in 2003 for just short of doubling in less than three years. In fact, at that rate of appreciation, the home would have doubled in three years.
That’s just stupid.
We’ll see $560K briefly, as we blow right on past it. IMHO, 2003 would have been the peak of the RE cycle. Prices would have pulled back from there except we pull the no capital gains taxes trick, put fed funds through the floor and gave loans to anything that put an alleged name on a loan application.
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/24/07 at 07:24 AM
bought not but. BTW, I corrected that before I pushed add comment. I think that’s the 2nd or 3rd time that has happened.
Posted by John on 10/24/07 at 07:31 AM
Yep. Almost a million bucks and the most prominent feature of the backyard is…... a birdbath?! WTF
Posted by FamilyGuy on 10/24/07 at 07:41 AM
Looking at the comps:
31 Flora Springs 3/2 sold on 9/13 for $1,100,000
48 Whitford 3/3 sold on 10/2 for $1,050,000
On face value, it would seem the list price is certainly within reason based on very current comps. But on a PSF basis, this house is priced higher at $484 PSF compared to $380-$385 on the comps above. HOWEVER, I am a little suspect about the the 2,000 SF claim on Redfin, as I can’t find any other properties in this neighborhood with that SF.
Perhaps someone knows this neighborhood and can shed some light?
In any event, Price per SF is not a true linear scale, so it would not be appropriate to apply the PSF from the comps above to the size of this property. But it would give you a floor on the current value, which would be $770K or so.
IMHO, this house will not sell for below $900K.
Posted by Fake Wealth Created on 10/24/07 at 07:44 AM
Wow, an actual single story SFR built in Irvine, new construction. Some what anachronistic don’t you think?
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 07:48 AM
Good job IR with your choice of black music! Although I don’t think that’s what poster “Dr. Ruth"had in mine when she asked for black music.
I am listening to these blow-hards from the White House summit talk about “everything EXCEPT for housing is doing excellent!” WTF? Idiots, all of them. Funny, I didn’t hear them mention that consumer spending accounts for roughly 3/4 of our nation’s economy, not exports.
Posted by Don from the Tanning Salon on 10/24/07 at 07:52 AM
There are actually only 5 photos of the place, the rest are grounds or a dupe. And while the photos are not a total debacle, as has been seen in the past, it’s a shame when you trumpet doing your basic job. What is nextYou don’t have to search too far to find a schlub with a DSLR shooting 6 MP or higher to snap stuff like this. And staging a home is part of the job. Final sale on this will be a greater fool who thinks he/she is getting a bargain at 799k. They’ll watch it sink further, below 6, and probably panic too.
Posted by IrvineRenter on 10/24/07 at 07:58 AM
I suspect it is an accurate size because it is a single story. You are also probably correct that someone will buy this place for $900K or above. Whether or not that is a good idea is another issue.
Posted by NanoWest on 10/24/07 at 08:04 AM
I agree with everything that you are saying here…..except that this will sell for $250.00 PSF. That would put the house at $500,0000. Fact is that not so many can afford a 1/2 million dollar home.
Posted by Kim on 10/24/07 at 08:04 AM
I’m missing something…there are 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. According to the realtor, there are 2 master bedrooms. So the occupant of the 3rd bedroom has only a 1/2 bath to use? Or has to go through someone else’s bedroom to get to the shower?
Posted by buster on 10/24/07 at 08:47 AM
Will never sell at this price for one simple reason: The banks won’t do a jumbo on this. It will never appraise out, and with banks having to lend their OWN money for jumbos, they are going to be ultra conservative when it comes to LTV. So unless the seller wants to do some “seller financing,” it’s not going to move anywhere near this price. Of course, “seller financing” really isn’t selling since the “seller” still bears the risk of loss in a market decline.
Posted by CK on 10/24/07 at 09:00 AM
I’d buy this for $560K. That’s $280 sq ft—- about right for a neighborhood like North Park Square. This is a nice house in a very nice neighborhood, and IMO—- far from a starter. A starter home in Irvine is a 1400 sq ft townhouse or condo. The fact that this is a one level home would hold a lot of appeal for many people, not to mention that this is far from starter appointed. Certainly $1M is crazy, but to think this will sink to $500k or less in Irvine?. Not so much. Now, I’m sure there will be a hundred downers on this blog who come out of the woodwork and say what a POS this house is and how it should cost $250k max and if you buy this North Park house your kids will end up in prison because they will go to TUSD…..
Posted by MMG on 10/24/07 at 09:09 AM
I vote for 400s soon
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 09:16 AM
Assuming that the 560k price in 2003 was not already artificially inflated, and a respectful annual appreciation of 6%, the property would be valued at just under 707k. 6% appreciation is far better than any long term/low risk investment yield over the past 7 years, and its twice the rate of inflation.
a 707k price corresponds to a 27% price reduction off the existing list price of 968k. I think this place will be worth less than 707k in a few years. This is why leverage can hurt you. People who purchased from 2002-2004 could reduce the asking prices 25%-30% across the board and they’d still come out ahead. The problem is, you have to sell your property for more than what you owe on it, and too many people used their homes as piggybanks.
Posted by Paul Hillr on 10/24/07 at 09:17 AM
I’m not going to argue what this house may or may not sell for, now or in the future. I do know that if I was looking for a home in that area I would be attracted to that one. Fairly new, Spanish with red tile roof, and one story. Outside of the cap lock addiction that realtors can’t seem to kick, this one looks to be doing a fair job of presenting the home in an emotional way. While those of us [me] who lately have nothing better to do than read and post in blogs can pick a million holes, I think an everyday buyer might bite on this home. If it doesn’t sell I suspect it won’t be from a lack of interest.
My field is jumbo and super jumbo loans, and yes, business stinks. Thanks for asking. Anyway, I just wanted to say that if the house sold at a price a bit lower than the last comps, I don’t think a buyer with high fico’s and good reserves would have a problem, even reduced doc, although rates a good bit better with tax returns.
Posted by MMG on 10/24/07 at 09:19 AM
CK—do your initials stand for catching knife
just kidding.
right now many bigger (as good as this one) homes are selling for way less than one million, including in IRVINE where everyone makes a mil a year. I dont have examples but maybe one of the other brilliant posters can give examples.
at 560k, a household income should make roughly 180k to afford this house. at 180k you should be able to afford something a little bigger. JMHO
Posted by CK on 10/24/07 at 09:29 AM
MMG….That’s a good one…I may need to change my callsign now. I’m just trying to be realistic. Sure, I’d love to pay $450K or less for this house. But I also think that there is also an inflation factor from 2003 we must consider. My family fits the $560k profile perfectly, and this is a house that would suit us perfectly. More sq ft just means a bigger electric bill to cool that baby. So if I’m a knife catcher to consider buying this at $560K, I can live with that label….
Posted by nuShack on 10/24/07 at 09:37 AM
Wow. That price, or even the lower 500k price would buy quite the place where I live (Atlanta). Still the forclosures here are way up and builders a cutting price on homes for sale. Some are trying a first six months “free” gimick. But I’ve lived around San Francisco before, so I do understand how pricey homes can be out there.
Posted by CK on 10/24/07 at 09:40 AM
Yeah, but would difference in the OC to Atlanta price be eaten up in the cost of importing your water from Lake Michigan?
Posted by NanoWest on 10/24/07 at 10:15 AM
Good point about leverage…....when it works for you its great, when it works against you, its painful
Posted by NanoWest on 10/24/07 at 10:18 AM
Well,
You go to the 1/2 bathroom and empty 1/2 of you bladder. Then you take a shower and wash the left 1/2 of your body.
It is a 1/2 bathroom for goodness sakes!!!
Posted by jwbrown77 on 10/24/07 at 10:31 AM
But it says to “HURRY.”
Damnit, where are my keys?
Posted by NO BUBBLE IN LA on 10/24/07 at 11:16 AM
<blockquote cite=“Good job IR with your choice of black music! Although I don’t think that’s what poster “Dr. Ruth”had in mine when she asked for black music.”>
While IR is providing service/entertainment/expertise for all to benefit without regards who takes part in this community, comments like yours are the true indicator that OC on average is a pathetic bunch. I suspect that if you’ve been born in OC that you’ve never even seen a black man before.
Posted by rex on 10/24/07 at 11:17 AM
Yeah..Importing from Colorado is cheaper.
Posted by tonye on 10/24/07 at 11:21 AM
(1) Many can afford a 500K house. With a 20% down, it’s a 400K mortgage, that is a conforming loan and your payment would be around $2400 a month or so. If you went in with a 10% down and PMI, you’d be looking at a jumbo and the payment would be $2700 or so. Quite doable.
(2) You make an interesting point. If we assume that this house was OVERPRICED the day it got sold brand new. That is, the builder was selling these homes into a frenzy and overpricing them, it’s likely thaat this would be a 400K house at the lowest part of the market. When I first quoted the 250 per sq. foot I was having some trouble believing it too because I just don’t see homes on the East Side of the Santa Ana Fwy going for that much per square foot when homes in Westpark and Woodbridge go for the same.
So, it may be that the natural price for a home like this… which is in reality more of a condo than a SFH, would have been 180 when it was new and 200 after allowing for an appreciation of several years.
This has to be a scary thought for everyone who bought a new home since ‘02. The idea that their homes were overpriced from day one.
And, I remember going to TRidge back in 01 and 02 and the prices per square foot were like 50% higher than TR. My wife and I thought they were all overpriced even in the early phases of the build out.
Ouch.
Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 10/24/07 at 11:31 AM
Perhaps the bagholder thought, “Well, this realtor did such a good job of suckering me into buying this place for twice at what it was worth, perhaps she can work her magic on someone else?”
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 11:39 AM
Actually I grew up in Ohio and Minnesota and I have had many experiences with many people of African descent. I can start spouting off a bunch of numbers but I won’t. Louis Armstrong’s music is classic and still easy to listen to. Ludacris or Kanye West are not.
Posted by Diana K on 10/24/07 at 11:43 AM
I think the write-offs are temp. They will have to increase them as time goes on.
Posted by IP on 10/24/07 at 12:13 PM
Chase is now only lending 90% max in California.
http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2007/10/23/lenders-reduce-loan-amounts-in-soft-markets/
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 10/24/07 at 12:31 PM
Exactly Tonye. The market in late ‘01 and ‘02 was cresting, then loan products turned it into speculation central.
If you look back at the historical price graph and mentally map in the turning of the peak starting 2002, and flatlining in 2003 ... I think you will see just how far above a sustainable cycle it really has gone.
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/09/13/the-last-market-bottom/
Also note the steepening of the rent curve and realize that it also is not sustainable due to the lack of income growth to support it.
Posted by Former Irvine Student on 10/24/07 at 12:34 PM
I grew up in Irvine and I can tell you that there were two black students in my entire elementary school. One, whose parents were UCI professors, left after only one month because the teacher treated him like he was a retard. After that I didn’t see any black students until I got go high school and those students were bussed in from the nearby military bases.
Posted by lawyerliz on 10/24/07 at 01:02 PM
Also, I understand that Atlanta is about to totally run
out of water.
Hope it rains, Atlanta-person!!
Posted by lawyerliz on 10/24/07 at 02:02 PM
In Dade County Florida, you can go on the tax assessor’s website, and often tho not always, you can get the square footage of the lot.
Also, an aerial view, with rough subdivision lines drawn around the houses. Does the tax assessor there post this info?
Posted by lendingmaestro on 10/24/07 at 03:07 PM
I found this over @ the HP site and I am blown away that I did not know this.
When calculating the sales number they use the NEW SEASONAL PACE compared to the PREVIOUS SEASONAL PACE. In other words as of August 31st we were “on pace” to hit 5.38 Million sold units by dec 31st. As of September 30th we were only on pace to sell 5.04 million units. So according to the NAR the pace of existing home sales slowed by only 8%! Talk about twisting the numbers, this makes me want to vomit!
Here are the actual sales numbers for August and September….as posted by HP.
Sept 2007: 409,000 sales (down 29% versus last month, down 23% versus last year)
Sept 2006: 529,000 sales
August 2007: 575,000 sales
That’s like saying a baseball player’s “estimated season-ending batting average fell from .325 to .310, for the month of september when his actual batting average for the month of september was only .250
This is extraordinary my friends. Am I the only one that just realized this???
Posted by Paul Hiller on 10/24/07 at 03:58 PM
No. It’s been reported all day. I’ve seen it on 4 other blogs since this morning. Really good catch, though. I sure would not have spotted it on my own.
Posted by ocrebel on 10/24/07 at 05:05 PM
setting aside ridiculous price, photos of these two neighboring houses are quite unique (construction photos:
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1227844
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1227781
Posted by tonye on 10/24/07 at 05:25 PM
I think the older neighborhoods will go back to mid to late 03 pricing. They were slower to take off.
The new homes. OTOH, oh boy… anything built after 01 is gonna be hit really hard. I think all the new homes built since 02 were overpriced with a huge premium over existing homes.
At some point, the newer homes need to come into conformance with existing homes. Maybe even lower as the quality of building sort of deteriorated.
Newer homes are NOT worth a 50% premium over older but well maintained homes.
Posted by doug r on 10/24/07 at 06:51 PM
I bid $160k!
Posted by Genius on 10/24/07 at 07:00 PM
Pretty much sums up my thoughts.
Posted by Genius on 10/24/07 at 07:01 PM
IR NEEDS to use Good Life by Kanye for one of these postings. It’s perfect. DO IT!
Posted by I hate angry renters on 10/24/07 at 09:03 PM
You guys are pretty sad. Don’t you have anything better to do than sit around all day complaining about high prices? These bubble blogs are a joke. Slanted opinions and nothing but angry renters. You fools missed the boat. Too bad. Enjoy renting and being miserable for the rest of your lives.
Posted by Major Schadenfreude on 10/24/07 at 09:17 PM
We will enjoy renting from you for half of what you pay to the bank to “own” it!
Are you enjoying “fall”?
I am, except for all the smoke. It permeates everything in the house and the ashes clog the AC intake filters. Plus, fire insurance will surely go up after this episode. But those aren’t my problems, they’re yours!
Perhaps I’m not so miserable after all!
Posted by graphrix on 10/25/07 at 01:16 AM
LOL! That comment is so 2005.
As the prices continue downward we will see who has the last laugh.
Posted by IrvineRenter on 10/25/07 at 04:57 AM
I wish the bitter debtors would come by more often. They are always good for a laugh.
Posted by awgee on 10/25/07 at 05:44 AM
“You fools missed the boat.”
But why do these “haters” always assume that we didn’t own property during the bubble?
Posted by Lost Cause on 10/25/07 at 09:26 AM
Missed the boat? Anyone who didn’t sell missed the boat. I hate to be stuck with one of several identical Irvine crapboxes, all for sale. You can’t buy that kind of entertainment.
Posted by furious sugar on 10/25/07 at 05:25 PM
Though I am new to this blog- I think that IR and the regular contributors come about their opinions in an well thought out and honest way. And, it seems that IR is able to find daily examples of how our local market is trending (down).
So, Bubble in LA- perhaps you can locate several current Irvine listing/sales that bucks this trend. I think everyone here would find it interesting.
Posted by awgee on 10/25/07 at 06:27 PM
furious sugar - cool name
Posted by Laura Louzader on 03/09/08 at 06:32 AM
I’ll personally be willing to pay a higher price per square foot for a really well-designed small dwelling with fine architecture and elevated energy efficiency,and I believe more and more people will make a similar choice in coming years, as we begin to experience higher fuel prices and spot shortages of gas and oil.
I am also willing to pay extra for real beauty and real amenity. Like leather parquet floors, larger bathrooms, and extra closet space, not to mention things that make the house more functional and energy-efficient, like R-39 insulation, really high-grade windows that have real insulating properties, heavier pipes and wiring, and, dare I dream, a geothermal heating system.
I will take architecture, funtionality, and luxury materials over size, anytime. A larger house or apt just means more housework and more space to fill with stuff I don’t need and that clutters up my life.
The age of oversized, cheaply built houses may be behind us. In the 50s and 60s, most middle-income families lived in less than 2000 sq ft, mostly WAY less.
Posted by george8 on 03/09/08 at 06:48 AM
Can anyone check this out? If this is as good as it looks on paper, it will be a giant comp. killer for the featured property. It is more than $350k below their listing price.
128 LONG GRASS, Irvine, CA 92618
3/4, 2106 sf, $614,880
How is this development, location wise? New construction at less than $300/sf.
http://www.ziprealty.com/buy_a_home/logged_in/search/home_detail.jsp?listing_num=S524595&page=1&property_type=CONDO&mls=mls_so_cal&cKey=dp3ftcp2&source=SOCALMLS
Posted by Laura Louzader on 03/09/08 at 06:55 AM
Just FORGET about importing water from Lake Michigan, to Atlanta or Vegas or any other overbuilt place!
It will NOT happen.
The American states and Canadian provinces in the Great Lakes watershed have signed one of the most tightly-worded and protective water pacts ever written, that specifically prohibit exporting water beyond a fairly circumscribed area close to the lake.
Even newer Chicago and Milwaukee suburbs that lie just outside the watershed cannot import Lake Michigan water. Suburbs in Lake County that did previous to the agreement are “grandfathered” in, but no new agreements can be made.
Plans are in the works now to once more reverse the Chicago River so that it will once more drain into the lake, now that the river no longer receives sewege. This will put Chicago completely into compliance with the pact.
The pact was forged in response to the threat to our water supply from places like Las Vegas- someone had proposed building a pipeline that would pipe our water to Vegas.
Atlanta might just have to deal with the fact that they’ve allowed their growth, especially sprawl-growth, to vastly overshoot their water supply, and adopt such remediation as limiting further suburban expansion.
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 03/09/08 at 07:17 AM
$3800 to rent this? They must be smoking something.
$2950 will rent you (although smaller) 3 bedroom in Turtle Ridge.
http://www.ochomereview.com/homewp/index.php?p=262061
Posted by No_Such_Reality on 03/09/08 at 07:20 AM
I wonder which is larger: the year’s worth of rent at $3800 or the amount the house has lost in value in the 138 days it’s been on the MLS?
Posted by IrvineRenter on 03/09/08 at 08:05 AM
It does look like they have a wishing rent to go with their WTF price. Interesting that even with their inflated asking rent, the value is is still well below asking. Realistically, this probably does rent closer to $3,000-3,200 for a value around $500K.
Posted by no_vaseline on 03/09/08 at 08:34 AM
That’s a trick question. The answer is neither.
They won’t rent it, and they won’t sell it - both for the same reason - they won’t lower the price.
I wonder what is larger - the ammount of value this home has lost in it’s first 138 days or the ammount it will lose going forward before the owners either grow a brain and cut their losses or chase the market all the way down?
Posted by Stupid on 03/09/08 at 09:12 AM
Links:
http://redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1543695
http://www.johnlainghomes.com/Default.aspx?DN=67f6a6b6-f761-4a27-90c2-4fd962d3c310
Posted by Surfing in Newport on 03/09/08 at 11:09 AM
We currently rent an IAC apartment in this price range. They are currently advertising rents that are 10% below what they were getting last year in our complex. It looks like the people that supported WTF prices can’t even afford to rent in the area anymore. There must be a mass exodus because I’m noticing that across the board 3+ bedroom condo/apt/home rents are falling in the quail hill to harbor view home corridor.
Posted by tonye on 03/09/08 at 11:11 AM
Agreed. Maybe even a little bit lower as the pendulum swings.
Posted by tonye on 03/09/08 at 11:18 AM
Leather parket floors?
Does that go with the hooks on the wall and ceiling? ;-D
Energy wise most new homes in SoCal already are. And when remodeling a home we also have those standards. In our post Enron world the greater the R value the more reasonable your electric bill.
Speaking of electric bills, areas near the ocean have much better weather. In Irvine, just a few miles make a huge difference. In TR and TRidge we don’t have to run the AC very often because of the ocean breeze, but if you go past the 405 then it heats up pretty quick and on the East side of the Santa Ana Fwy -where this home is- it’s mighty hotter and colder.
One of the issue of a larger home is the ability to have larger rooms. However this opportunity was squandered in many of the McMansions because they added a lot of wasted spaces (hallways, useless nooks) and then topped it off with a small parlor or casita in lieu of a proper living (front) room.
I agree with you that the era of 4000 sq foot McMansions will draw to a close. Indeed my 2700 sq foot home has more useable space that those monstrosities. It’s all in the design and the quality of construction.
But I still want to build a 500 sq foot room upstairs… it will make for a great TV/Stereo/music/card room.
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 11:38 AM
Are you guys kidding me?
This will go for $279k in 2012, and probably a lot LESS!
My source of info? That Montly Morgage Rate Reset chart.
In Addition:
You’ll have to REPLACE 80% of the of the shitty materials they used building it in the first place…Roof, 90% of the plumbing…etc
Geesh, you OC people are BEYOND STUPID.
Posted by zornundo on 03/09/08 at 11:52 AM
Take a breath and back away from the remodel. Invest in something more useful than another 500 sq ft of nothing. 2700 sq is reallly nice. why need more?
Posted by zornundo on 03/09/08 at 11:58 AM
oooo…turnkey!! IR, you need to add the turnkey graphic!
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 11:59 AM
Also, I see the a landfill that’s within 3 miles or so from NorthPark. Who would want to live so close to a landfill ?
$968k for this dump, sure go ahead….
Imagine the smell on a windy summer night….
Again, you dopes who live near there are BEYOND STUPID.
Posted by soapboxpolitico on 03/09/08 at 12:09 PM
IR - Here’s an excellent article if you REALLY want to start a furious blog commentary ... especially from bitter home debtors! I’d wager this would trigger some serious denial and some very fun commentary. Enjoy.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime
Posted by soapboxpolitico on 03/09/08 at 12:12 PM
All—slightly off topic but perhaps somewhat relative to the discussion of what is worth what and where .... “The Next Slum?” ....
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime
Enjoy.
Posted by tonye on 03/09/08 at 12:16 PM
The way be rebuilt the entire house in that part we ended up with a 600 sq foot second story deck that can support a small pool -or a second story. This includes electrical.
Hence adding three walls, a roof and a separate HAVC unit will not cost so much. Specially as the cost of residental remodelers is cratering.
If I could get the whole thing done for under $75K then it will be done. I figure I’ll plumb it for a bathroom in the future and that may add 5K to the construction.
A 24 by 20 by 12 room would make a great place for my Maggies.
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 12:35 PM
Speaking of the “The Next Slum?” …. I see that whole
area (Northpark, Portola…etc) being just that.
See that move Back to the Future 2 ?
Who would want to spend that much money to live next to a landFill (ie. City DUMP).
So sad. Buty then again “IR’s aptly named Cultural Pathology of OC.”
Rings oh so true…
Posted by CapitalismWorks on 03/09/08 at 01:07 PM
The entirety of Newport Coast is within a 3 mile radius of a landfill…
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 01:27 PM
” The entirety of Newport Coast is within a 3 mile radius of a landfill…”
You just PROVED my point…
Now I understand why the autisic birthrate in CA is SKYHIGH !!!
Have a nice day.
Posted by ipoplaya on 03/09/08 at 02:17 PM
Who let this joker jimmyjohnson on to this board?! There should be some kind of test taken before someone can post here… Should only allow people with 70+ IQs to participate.
Any fool who thinks a house in Northpark Square will be going for anywhere near $139 per sf at any time in recorded history should be committed, shot, or at least castrated so they absolutely cannot reproduce.
For $279K on this house to actually occur, they’d have to be giving houses away in Corona for free… I’d probably still pay $300K for this even if the same house in the IE cost zero bucks.
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 02:31 PM
“Comment by ipoplaya
2008-03-09 14:17:05
Who let this joker jimmyjohnson on to this board?! There should be some kind of test taken before someone can post here… Should only allow people with 70+ IQs to participate.
“
Ha! fat chance sucker! I live in the world of REALITY
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 03:01 PM
“Comment by ipoplaya”
hey Ipoplya,
I probably already own your ass.
You lost, keep on justifiying all you want, I win and you WILL LOOSE.
Ill bet my whole retirement $500k+ in SRS in whatever you’re invested in..
Ill own your ass in 2 years. or maybe I ALREADY own you! Like some many SUCKERS in OC.
Posted by 25w100k+ on 03/09/08 at 03:15 PM
300 per sq.ft at the bottom. You guys hoping for 250 are dreaming.
Posted by ipoplaya on 03/09/08 at 03:16 PM
At least you are entertaining JJ. Given that it would appear you can’t type or write, I have a feeling your “whole retirement” probably amounts to your Dairy Queen pension plan and your NASCAR collectibles, but by all means, please continue indulging in your WT rhetoric. It provides a nice reminder as to why I live here in Irvine…
Posted by 25w100k+ on 03/09/08 at 03:22 PM
I think it was satire. (I hope…)
Posted by 25w100k+ on 03/09/08 at 03:24 PM
what does “WILL LOOSE” mean?
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 03:24 PM
” It provides a nice reminder as to why I live here in Irvine…”
hahahahh that just PROVES MY POINT!!!!
You WILL lose SUCKER !
See ya in 2012 when you are living on the street sucker !
Posted by jimmyjohnson on 03/09/08 at 03:26 PM
“At least you are entertaining JJ. Given that it would appear you can’t type or write, I have a feeling your “whole retirement” probably amounts to your Dairy Queen pension plan and your NASCAR collectibles, but by all means,”
HAHAHH ROFL! Talk all you want SUCKER!
I ALREADY OWN your ass.
Posted by NoWow!way on 03/09/08 at 04:11 PM
I cannot believe how many people are holding onto property, waiting for the market to “come back”. I even met a flipper over xmas that was waiting to sell his new purchase in the “spring”.
The majority of people are not paying attention to the market or are at least in denial. I don’t care what the headlines say, people are a couple of years AT LEAST behind in what they know about real estate.
Keep an eye on this property. A floplord with this kind of equity burn is gonna get roasted at some point.
Arfer property, imol.
Posted by no_vaseline on 03/09/08 at 05:00 PM
Should I sign up as Kyle Busch now?
Posted by Lost Cause on 03/09/08 at 05:55 PM
But…but…but…Irvine has excellent schools! Clearly it is worth the extra $200,000 to buy there. I mean, a Harvard education costs how much?
Posted by jhill on 03/09/08 at 05:57 PM
OK, Irvine residents, pleeeze google your water situation. City of Irvine website gives average annual rainfall of 13-10 inches per year. This is an average over what scholars agree has been a very wet century. I suspect that in 2007 (for which I have found no numbers) it might have been half that. Orange County is now treating sewage to produce potable water. Do NOT laugh at Atlanta, or Phoenix, or whatever. We are all in big trouble, which is why I’m so cranky about water features and tropical landscaping in these properties.
Posted by Lost Cause on 03/09/08 at 06:04 PM
I looks like Florida. Too bad there are no hurricanes to take care of it, though.
Posted by pacman on 03/09/08 at 06:34 PM
does irvine have enough high income jobs to support the high housing costs of the area ?
Posted by blackbox on 03/09/08 at 06:51 PM
Wow, he hates us, he really does.
Haha, no big deal.
In fact, you just gave me a smile.
This must really be getting to you to write a oldie but goodie such as “bitter renter”
Don’t worry the market just has another 25% to 30% more to fall.
I’m sure you can handle it with all your realestate holding and all.
Bitter renters can pay for part of your motgages while the value goes down and down
The JPMorgan report included a revised bleaker forecast for subprime-related home prices. The bank now sees prices falling 30 percent, from its prior 25 percent forecast. Those prices have declined 14 percent since mid-2006, JPMorgan said.
haha, good one sparky!
I am a “bitter renter”, and I am very, very proud about that right about now. haha