“!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” I count 27 of them.

These sellers are total idiots. 

Assuming there is no HELOC or cash-out refis, they could easily slash 200K off the price to get into knife catcher range and still make a 200K profit (not bad for doing nothing other than renting the money from the bank to live in the house for 5 years).

Instead they are going to just ride it all the way down until it eventually rolls back to ‘03.

Greedy! Tsk Tsk.
——-

Do you think the owner made substantial improvement over their 2003 $480k purchase? I had hard time looking at the side way photos. It is regretful that I had not enjoying the beautiful property that asking way over $500/sf because of it.

One thing the Turtle Ridge owners need to do is- swear not to give in to any buyer unless they get their WTF prices no matter how long it takes.

“One thing the Turtle Ridge owners need to do is- swear not to give in to any buyer unless they get their WTF prices no matter how long it takes.”

That is also the Irvine Company’s current pricing strategy. It also explains why there have been almost no new home sales on the Ranch in over a year…

And their builders. There are finished lots in Pacific Ridge with no plans to build on them in the new future. The builder has even put the models on the MLS. Oh, but wait, the high end is immune…so they must be sitting on the dirt so they can make even more money in the future

(1) Great song.  Try to listen to the live version in New Year’s Day ‘77.  Jerry was good that night.  The whole band was in synch and went through two really good sets.  It’s funny when they all yell “Three, Two, One!  Happy New Year” and off they go into yet another tune.

(2) TRidge will settle below 03 prices.  I’ve said this over and over, they were WTF prices from day one and people went, drank the KoolAid, took crazy loans and figure they’d triple their money in two years.  The builder agents mentioned how fast the homes were appreciating when we toured them in 03.  I just couldn’t believe why someone would pay such a huge premium when there were nearby homes in TR with better views, larger lots and more efficiently laid out homes.  Call it the “herd mentality” and plain ignorance.

(3) This area of TRidge holds very little interest because it has no view.  The main reason why TRidge is so nice is the view, not the size nor quality of the homes.  Most homes, condos and SFH, are in really tiny lots and SFHs have two car garages… WTH?

(4) So, folks, please don’t be surprised with the price situation in TRidge.  The higher they went the harder they’ll fall.

OH, why are t he pictures sideways?  Did they have a landslide and the homes ended up on their side?

If a condo value falls and nobody is around to buy it, does it still make a *thud* when it hits bottom?

Better yet, instead of holding out for WTF prices, why not raise the asking prices to create panic on the potential buyers just like in 2003-2005 since Fed. and all politicians are on owners’ side?

Actually, I’m seeing some owners are doing exactly this - increase the prices.

LOL

http://www.io.com/~snewton/zen/onehand.html

What is the sound of one house crashing?

Well the Turtle Ridge owners now also have to convince Turtle Rock owners to join the price fixing scheme : beware, potential buyers - only way to join our clubs is to pay up.

Fed. and all politicians are cooperating.

I am so jealous of these people you feature! Listen pal, I paid my goddam home of; now I feel like a house guest in my own home! Worse, now that there’s no house payment, what the hell does my wife need me for? Very little, unless she’s drastically short on aggravation! Listen people, in this society, you are what you owe! and that makes me a big nobody. Nobody is featuring my home in a blog! If only I had used Helocs to buy my sport bikes, instead of buying used for cash, I would be a member of that warm comfortable fraternity of the nearly bankrupt. O, the camaraderie, the espieglerie, the liberte, fraternitie, and equalite!
Instead I sit at home, suffused with a nameless dread, waiting for the real owners to come back and throw me out, and probably nick me for damamges over cleaning and repair. It sucks.

Please tell me that granite flooring in the garage is a joke? 
Sometimes I understand why some people in other countries hate Americans.
Anyone catch House Hunters last night?  It was a repeat of a young couple here in Vegas buying in the “red hot Vegas market” because their two bedroom condo couldn’t hold all their stuff.  Wonder how they feel about their purchase now?

My kids sometimes mention that their friends living in TRidge are driving brand new Bimmers and their parents have fancy new Benzes and what not.

I just tell them that all it shows is that their parents owe a lot more than we do.

That’s the lesson they’ll get from me, and they better be happy with a brand new Honda Fit Sport -or a Civic EX- when their times come to get a car.

Which is better than what 90% of the kids their age will get.  (95%)?

I believe that would be a garage slab “finish”.  My neighbor had his garage done that way with an acrylic finish that fills the cracks and levels the floor.  It’s also easy to clean it doesn’t stain.  You can get a number of different finishes and, sure enough, my neighbors went with a speckled finish that could be called “granite like”.

The RE agent is simply clueless, lazy and doubtlessly not entirely truthful.  But then he was toppled over when he took the pictures. 

No one ever calls me! Listeb people, if you want attention, owe, owe ,owe. The bank never calls me to tell me how much they apreciate my deposits, but the minute I overdraft, I’m their best friend. That’s a valuable lesson to teach your kids: Excessive debt = popularity!

I love the Gorgeous Tur(n)key,
MUST EAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
and it’s below market cholesterol value also

Mooser said:
<i>

I think you got that part wrong it’s supposed to be

liberte, fraternite and negative equite’

I agree- I like Turtle Rock, but it is old and overpriced.  They need to come back to 03 prices as well.

I like that comeback.  I don’t have children, but I’d imagine I’d say the same thing. “I can buy you a Range Rover, but that will just subtract from my ability to send you to any college you desire.”

He’s no fun he fell right over…

I don’t know what prices will eventually settle at.  I think, that is, I have a feeling they’re going to be much lower than most people suspect or are willing to admit in public.  I think areas like TR are wonderful breeding grounds for this.  That is, unless everything claimed by CAR is true and everyone in Irvine is a millionaire who wants to live in a small, tract domicile with prices starting round three quarters of a million dollars.  Hey, maybe it’s true.  I don’t know.

I do see things headed down, strongly down.  And I don’t see the light at the bottom of that valley (or is it a well, I don’t know).  I do see real estate grossly overpriced in many places.  Some might support slightly higher others, not so much.

By the way, this wonderful view from this neighborhood, what exactly do you see?  And please, spare me the “city lights” and “mountain views” realtwhore-speak.

Just curious.

Could you be kind enough to include english translation for those of us who are not french speaking or literature major?

Hey, I was looking in Turtle Rock last week. That would be small, rundown, old, tract domicile starting round a million dollars. Three quarters gets you a condo.

The agent should’ve put the pictures in upside-down. Truth in advertising!

Mostly you see nothing, since there aren’t that many nice view homes in TR (at least not in the broadmoor or the sierra streets).  The nicer views are north towards Long beach and they are quite expansive.  They actually are quite nice ice weasel.  A few houses have ocean views, but to be honest, the weather has to be just right to tell that you are looking at the ocean.  Heck, I could see a peak-a-boo view of the ocean if i stood on my roof in TR, but I didn’t advertise it that way when I sold my house.

TR is a truly lovely neighborhood… probably overpriced, but a great place to live.

“One thing the Turtle Ridge owners need to do is- swear not to give in to any buyer unless they get their WTF prices no matter how long it takes.”

Cut off the nose to spite the face!

IR’s turkey picture is hilarious. Nice tan lines on that bird

The sound of many, many houses crashing. . .

Another way to make the listing stand out by lying side way? Or, may be there indeed was a land slide.

Wow.  I’m actually angry at these sellers and hope that they suffer. Anyone stupid enough to stick with such an astonishingly incompetent “Realtor” deserves misery and pain.  If they pay the full 6% commission, they are giving this moron $52,500 for NOTHING.  That’s more than many, many people make in salary for a year.  For that money, this Realtard should have a dedicated website, virtual home tours, newspaper ads in full color in every local paper, professional photographs, etc.  But no, this cavalcade of idiocy will continue on as is…

tonye—- I must say that although I disagree with you on the value of homes north of the 5 fwy, I am right there with you on the love for Honda and Acura products. From my father right on down through all siblings, not one of my family owns anything but Honda or Acura. Great summary on Honda’s dominance of racing yesterday. 

Or how about not buying them a car at all?  Any car back where I came from was the object of envy.  You had to beg to borrow mom’s POS station wagon.  Of course all these kids are having twenty years of satisfaction taken away from them since they’ll be retreading old ground when they get their first job and can afford their own (used) car and their second, higher payhing job and can afford their own new car and then when they’re in their mid-30’s and can finally swing that BMW they’ve always wanted.  All that pride vaporized with one gift from guilt-ridden parents.

In defense of those people you know nothing about, you have to concede that there is a chance they CAN afford to buy their kids a nice car AND send their kids to any college they can get into. 

There are some of us that visit this site who actually live in Irvine.  Actually own in Irvine (I bought 7 years ago), and who just might have purchased a decent car for their kid who is now at Stanford.

@ tonye, I would think 95%....any new car is going to be better than the junker I got before college.

Finally, a responsible, reality-oriented parent who is preparing his kids for the challenges before them, instead of a doormat who thinks his/her whole reason for existence is to work for 12 hours a day to provide kids with overpriced frippery that they will discard within a year while whining for bigger toys.

This

maybe realtor knows there is no taker at this price, so why spend money on something with no return

Um, I also own in Irvine and can afford a lot of things because I’ve chosen not to have children to date.

I don’t mean to wax philosophical, but the figure has got to be at least 99.99% of the world’s population.  Your kids should be happy to have food in their mouths and clothes on their backs.

I’d be happy to see people take the money from the cars and spend it on piano lessons or some stuff like that.  This whole materialistic only if it shows to other people stuff is old already.

Chuck Ponzi

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberté,_égalité,_fraternité

You have to admit though that sellers are not giving up too much in terms of declines on their home values to buyers. I am not talking about distressed properties and WTF scenarios. For all other sales out there, sellers and agents are following the strategy of waiting longer than buyers. I wonder if seller behavior is different outside Irvine? If we talk about Anaheim and Fullerton, definitely prices have gone way below 250 bucks a square foot. Lake forest too is hovering in the 200’s $/sq ft range. But the agents and sellers have done a good job at holding back the fall in Irvine. Every fence sitter is hoping that the predicted onslaught of foreclosures and short sales will happen soon, but untill it happens, the only factor that might speed up the decline might be the adjusting rates, which too it seems like a lot of people in Irvine have the capacity to absorb. Even if they do not have the capacity to absorb, the banks and the realtors are not showing any urgency to sell quickly because their panic is lower for Irvine versus other cities in OC. It is because they firmly believe that Irvine is come out unscathed and that they must do everything possible to keep valuations closer to the high range.

My parents gave me 2,000 dollars for a car when I turned 18 I thought I was spoiled.

I don’t know the first thing about RE, but advertizing desperation (Must sell!!!!!!!!!!) strikes me as a poor bargaining tactic.

Dear IR,

This is off-topic but I am wondering whether this issue has been addressed before on the blog.  Senator Dodd has proposed creating the Home Ownership Preservation Corporation, utilizing federal funds as “seed” money.  Following its initial funding, the corporation should essentially pay for itself.

My basic understanding of the program is that it involves using the seed money to purchase mortgage backed securities containing at-risk loans.  As these loans have a high risk of default, their value is substantially less than the mortgage amount itself.  Once acquired by the corporation, the loans could be “re-worked” and sold back to the original borrower at a steep discount and with new loan terms (i.e. a fixed rate). 

The end result could be two neighbors who purchased homes at the same time, one using traditional loan finance principles and the other using some sort of high-risk loan (2/28 ARM, payment-option ARM, etc.) having vastly different mortgage obligations.  In the end, the “responsible” borrower would have a greater mortgage balance, most likely much greater, than the “irresponsible.”  As someone who has sat out of the Southern California market for the past four years, I think that this program encourages risky behavior and is a slap to the face of citizens who acted responsibly.  Further, it institutionalizes irresponsible (and most likely) fraudulent behavior.  It is also symptomatic of our society’s general inability to take and/or assign responsibility for our individual actions.

At a minimum, I would hope that any program involving the use of federal funds uses fraud screening as a threshold requirement for participation in the program.  In addition to the moral hazards discussed above, “forgiving” fraud in the mortgage application process is an even greater affront to those who played the game fairly. 

The bottom line is that most people facing foreclosure in the current market need to be foreclosed upon.  Keeping someone in a home they could not afford but for fraud creates great moral hazard and delays the necessary correction in prices we are beginning to see in the market.  The irrational demand created by fraud and risky loan originations is the main cause of the run-up in the first place. 

I was wondering whether Senator Dodd or anyone who purports to support the program has addressed the fraud issue.  I would be very interested to find out; however, I am assuming that they would not automatically exclude those who lied about their income.  Lastly, an on-line petition objecting to this program and/or a lack of a fraud screening might be helpful.  Thank you for taking the time to consider this issue.

P-Haze

My experience is that sellers will listen to a realtor for a while and not lower prices…....however, after about 200 days on the market, most sellers start to get weary and will begin lowering prices.

My first car was a beat up hand-me-down 1981 firebird with 6 cyl (only about 3 of them worked). It lasted about 3 months before the tranny blew!

Ah, the memories

Yes, I saw the House Hunters that you mention… they must feel swell about buying the highest priced house they looked at that was at “the top of their budget.” Aargh.

I did laugh out loud when I saw the gorgeous tur(n)key! I hope we see many more appearances of that gorgeous bird in the future. Great job, IR!

Or as Albert Brooks proposed in Lost in America, If you cover our gambling loss and return our nest egg to us, think of what a great ad campaign this would be! “The Desert Inn has heart… the Desert Inn has heart…”

Same cheapo kitchen cabinets as we have in our IAC rental. Except ours aren’t sideways.

“Assuming there is no HELOC or cash-out refis…”

That’s a risky assumption around these parts.  I blame 100% financing and HELOCs for the gridlock in the Orange County real estate market, even at the high end.  No one is trying to sell their house now unless they have to, and yet these properties sit on the market at the same price.  Clearly, the sellers can’t lower the price without going short sale and so the genius realtors are left with one and only one marketing strategy—put as many exclamation points as possible after “motivated seller” to try to trick that one knife catcher into buying their turkey.

IR—love the turkey logo.  Like everyone else on this blog, whenever I read “turnkey”, it registers in my mind as “turkey.”

Are you talking about Costa Azul?  I thought those were built out.  On what street are the remaining lots?

We can all stop arguing now. The whole housing crisis is the work of Al-Queda!
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomeFinancing/DidTerroristsCauseTheHousingMess.aspx

Maybe there is a supernatural phenomenon in the heart of Irvine?  Last week we heard about the condo complex with the wormhole that transported you to a tropical paradise, and this week we’ve discovered sideways gravity.  Maybe Irvine really is different?  Heck, in Newport all we have is a beach.

A teenager in my neighborhood drives a pimped out 7 series BMW.  Recently, one of their family members was in a minor accident, although one that rendered the car undrivable.  That car still sits in the driveway unrepaired because, you guessed it, they don’t have car insurance.  All for show, people, all for show.

Yes, use Redfin and zoom in. They have recent overheads and you can see the improved lots, but no building. I know that they are not building because we have visited friends in the area.

Specifically: Pacific Mist, Seawatch and Needlegrass.

Listing for one of the models:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1411069

I thought those lots were in the Pienza and Cypress developments.  I’m familiar with the Costa Azul models that are for sale (along with one builder home next door), but I thought Costa Azul was done.  Needless to say, for a builder to give up and sell the models with remaining unimproved lots is a bigger deal than a builder postponing a subsequent phase.  In either event, nothing is selling up there.  Thanks for the info.

Why would a home built it 2003 need a complete remodel?

In my recent experience, realtors have been begging sellers to take lower prices and its the sellers that haven’t budged.  The last two runs I made at houses, it was for the most part seller reluctance to lower to market value.  Not their realtors… 

Think about it, the realtor wants to make his/her commission.  Don’t you think they’d rather have a sale, at perhaps a few percent less, than no sale at all?  The difference in commissions on $10K, $20K, even $50K is fairly neglible.

A realtor down the street from me recently presented a counter offer to some sellers within $5K of the low-end of their desired selling price.  They didn’t drop down, that buyer went away, and the offers since have been $15-25K less.

There is no way this can pass.  It would cost too much money, and the details like the examples you mentioned make it far too complicated.  The only people this helps are the marginal buyers of the past few years who now can’t afford (and probably never could) their homes.

A Bailout would simultaneously piss off the solid homeowners because of the tax ramifications, and the renters because of the artificially supported prices. 

There is some talk of altering the bankruptcy code to allow for the alteration of mortgage loans by judges.  This would have potential negative impacts on mortgage finance (rising rates). 

Anything is possible, but it just seems unlikely that these government bailout plans would (1) pass (2) have any positive impact.

That, of course, is why realtors are so nearly completely useless—their loyalty is to the deal not to their “client”.  And their actions (as a group) over the past few years increases the distrust people have for them.  They’ve made their bed.

Besides, their organization (NAR) is saying that prices always go up—who do you believe, the guy with the phd or the lying, cheating slug who listed your house?

They bleed us internally with financial upheaval. They bleed us externally with the cost of oil and military expenditures.

I’m actually not sure the article is meant seriously.  This could be a subtle and (IMHO) brilliant satire.

After all, “None of this misery would have happened if …” could have been accurately prefixed to any of a large numer of events.  And since a key argument in the article is that it is the US’s own tendencies (”Cultural Pathology”, if you will) that have provided the immediate causes for the crisis, it follows that this was “an accident waiting to happen”.

By analogy, the BP refinery explosion in 2005 was immediately caused by misoperation of a process, but longstanding defects in equipment and procedures increased the probability of such mistakes and greatly increased their consequences.

Very true zaleriana.  Normally the self-interest of the realtor, rooted of course in their personal compensation, is in alignment with the sellers interest.  Both want to maximize the sales price… 

With regards to representing a buyer, that is not the case.  The more you pay, the more they make.  The personal income goal of the realtor representing a buyer is in opposition to the buyers goal of getting the most they can for their money.

I think realtors perform a good and necessary function for the seller, i.e. marketing the property, handling the transaction, etc.  It has always amazed me that a realtor representing the buyer has and does make as much as the selling realtor.

There’s just one simple fact that all of these rescue programs ignore.  If you stretched to buy a house you couldn’t reasonably afford, you’re going to lose that house.  No biggie.  It’s not the end of the world that families have to move and rent for a few years.  If the market corrects to become affordable, then they’ll benefit along with everyone else.  They can spend the next couple years repairing their credit.

My kid’s first car will be a bus pass.

Brian,

I did address many of these issues here:

http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/2007/04/16/how-homedebtors-could-avoid-foreclosure/

Is this the Irvine Housing Blog or the Irvine Renter For Life blog?

It has always amazed me that a realtor representing the buyer has and does make as much as the selling realtor

It’s basically the commission to bring the buyer to the property.  It makes some sense in this sort of market.  But 5 or 6% total is nuts, especially when you’re working with high amounts. 

Some flat fee and a (maybe higher %) commission based on the amount over a certain floor price makes more sense.  And buyers’ agents getting a flat rate from the seller, too, with the buyer paying a large-ish percentage (20%?) of the amount below asking.  Put the realtors in competition for their commission.

Those pictures are wrong. 

Instead of sideways and fuzzy, they should be upside down and have a splashing watermark overlay on each of them.

Not for life, just for the duration of the crash.

Hilarious car comments! I’m from the east coast- different care mentality- alot of people with lots of $ still DO NOT buy their kids cars…my middle class parents had old station wagons - with a big famioy I felt fortunate they kept a third one that we kids could borrow…my parents mantra was ‘we do college, not cars’ (we all went to private school high school/college).  I’ve been in CA for 15 years and have never understood why people go into serious debt for a car!  People here complain about the cost of state colleges, cost of living, etc. while simultaneously driving cars that cost more than 4 years of tuition.  Crazy.

Any good websites showing RENTALS in this area of Irvine/Newport Coast.  I might relocate there.  Thank you!

perhaps - granite floors in the garage?!

Funny, I was just driving down the 405 south behind a black porsche with the license plate “surfsup”

As a wise finance professor once said, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch”. You, the buyer, ends up paying the commissions because what’s important to the seller is how much they get, not what the house sells for.

Just to put things into a wacky perspective, this is how things are up here in la la land.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1248896

Even at an 80% discount it would be a rip off.  Makes Irvine prices look like Riverside, and is one of many that I have found.  To be fair, my ex-gf sold her house which was the same size as this but nicer, with a larger yard, for under $800k a couple months ago.  What a wacky city I live in.

http://rental-living.com

Maybe this is the house at 8775 Lookout Mountain Avenue that Heinlein wrote about?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/And_He_Built_A_Crooked_House

Wouldn’t our grandparents just be shaking their heads to see that million dollar house? This probably sold for about $12,000 brand new in 1952. And it was a nicer neighborhood then, too.

“With regards to representing a buyer, that is not the case.”

I think the NAR’s mission statement says it all: they are in it for the money. 

http://www.realtor.org/realtororg.nsf/pages/NAROverview?OpenDocument

Mission & Vision
The core purpose of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® is to help its members become more profitable and successful.

875K for a condo?  That’s insane.  These people are in for a harsh reality.

No, it wasn’t a nicer neighborhood then.  It was seedy.  This is right around the corner from my first-after-marriage over-the-garage one-bedroom apartment in 1961!  My folks lived up in Westwood just west of UCLA where it really _was_ nice and they were shocked that I lived down in that end of SaMo. It’s hard to believe that something like that costs a million bucks.  Why, even in Santa Barbara I think you could pick that puppy up for 750K.

Truer words were never spoken! If the debt collectors stopped calling me, I’d have to throw away my phone (mainly because I stopped paying my phone bill) because nobody else calls.

Comment by Smurf
2008-02-13 08:24:00
Mooser said:

liberte, fraternite and negative equite’

I said that? Wow! I didn’t know that. Maybe you don’t need to be indebted to have friends, but it does take a lot of interest.